This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change or missed weight.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Stephens vs. Payan | Stephens (-217 / Moderate) | Stephens (1.16x / Very Small) | PASS | #1 |
| Bowles vs. Roop | Bowles (-282 / Moderate) | Roop (1.10x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | #2 |
| Burrell vs. Thompson | Thompson (-161 / Small) | Burrell (1.50x / Moderate) | PASS | #1, #2 |
| Nurmagomedov vs. Trujillo | Nurmagomedov (-255 / Moderate) | Nurmagomedov (2.36x / Large) | Nurmagomedov | #1 |
| Whittaker vs. Smith | Smith (-187 / Moderate) | Whittaker (1.45x / Moderate) | PASS | #3 |
| Bermudez vs. Holloway | Bermudez (-295 / Moderate) | Bermudez (1.03x / Pick ‘Em) | Holloway | |
| Story vs. Pyle | Story (-154 / Small) | Pyle (1.70x / Moderate) | Pyle | |
| Cerrone vs. Noons | Cerrone (-292 / Moderate) | Cerrone (2.53x / Large) | Cerrone | |
| Maynard vs. Grant | Maynard (-179 / Small) | Maynard (1.04x / Pick ‘Em) | Grant | |
| Teixeira vs. Te Huna | Teixeira (-308 / Large) | Teixeira (1.76x / Moderate) | PASS | #3 |
| dos Santos vs. Hunt | dos Santos (-438 / Large) | dos Santos (3.20x / Very Large) | dos Santos | |
| Velasquez vs. Silva | Velasquez (-750 / Very Large) | Velasquez (2.11x / Large) | Silva |
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.
Favorites to consider: Nurmagomedov, Cerrone, dos Santos
Underdogs to consider:
- Silva vs. Velasquez – Velasquez is the strong ratings favorite, but a “shot in the dark” is warranted as Silva is a strong contender — ratings-wise.
- Holloway over Bermudez – Bermudez is favored by the ratings, but is close to 50/50.
- Grant over Maynard – See above, same deal but a slightly better wager.
- Pyle over Story – The only real disagreement between ratings and odds on this card with no gotchas.