September 13, 2025 – Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas, USA
Betting Odds, Tale of the Tape & Analytical Breakdown
The main event of Noche UFC pits two of the featherweight division’s most electrifying and rapidly rising contenders against each other. Brazilian submission wizard Diego Lopes faces off against the explosive, undefeated finisher Jean Silva in a bout that promises fireworks and could catapult the winner into immediate title contention.
Tale of the Tape
FIGHTER RECORD AGE RANK
Diego Lopes 26–7–0 30 #5 FW / #2 UFC
Jean Silva 16–2–0 25 #16 FW / #10 UFC
Analytical Breakdown
Diego Lopes – has become the UFC’s most dangerous submission threat since his viral debut. With 17 career finishes via choke (including 5 in the UFC), Lopes thrives in chaos, using relentless pressure, unorthodox striking entries, and world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to hunt for necks. His cardio and durability allow him to maintain a frenetic pace, but his defensive gaps on the feet and occasional recklessness leave him vulnerable to sharp counters.
Jean Silva – is a nightmare for technicians — a powerful, athletic striker with knockout power in both hands and underrated grappling defense. Since his last loss in 2018, Silva has reeled off 12 straight finishes (9 KOs, 3 submissions), showcasing improved fight IQ and killer instinct. His length, footwork, and ability to capitalize on openings make him a constant threat to end fights abruptly.
Keys to Victory
Lopes must: Drag Silva into deep water early. He needs to close the distance, initiate wild exchanges to mask takedown attempts, and immediately hunt for submissions in scrambles. Letting Silva set rhythm on the outside is a losing strategy.
Silva must: Use his reach and movement to pick Lopes apart. He must stay composed, avoid getting drawn into brawls, and punish Lopes’ forward lunges with sharp counters and leg kicks. If taken down, he must explode back to his feet immediately.
Recommended Bets
PICK AVG. ODDS (PROJECTED) NOTES
Lopes ML +110 to +140 Slight edge due to experience, ranking, and proven UFC-level success.
Silva by KO/TKO +250 to +300 Best value if you believe Silva’s power and timing will shine.
Lopes by Submission +350 to +450 High-risk, high-reward play based on his historic finishing rate.
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance –220 Over 90% of their combined UFC fights ended inside the distance.
Over 1.5 Rounds +120 Both possess the durability to survive early chaos and adapt.
Prediction
This is a classic clash of styles: the relentless submission hunter versus the poised, powerful finisher. Lopes’ experience in the UFC spotlight and his uncanny ability to turn brawls into grappling gold give him a razor-thin edge. However, Silva’s physical advantages and fight-ending power make him an extremely live underdog.
Silva will likely find success early, landing heavy shots that stagger Lopes. But Lopes will absorb the damage, drag the fight into deep waters, and eventually lock in a fight-ending choke in the second second or third round as Silva fatigues from defending takedowns.
Pick: Diego via Submission (Round 2-3)
Value Option: Jean Silva by KO/TKO (Round 1)
For full rankings, stats, and global fighter comparisons – visit FightMatrix.com
MMA Promoter | Event Organizer | Analyst
Founder & President of Real Fight Promotion (RFP) – one of the longest-running and most recognized MMA organizations in Ukraine. Organizer of 100+ MMA events. Contributor, analyst, and Trusted Promoter collaborating with leading global MMA platforms.
What loss in 2022? Jean hasn’t lost in 2022?
Corrected, thank you
Isn’t Lopes more like +220?
I think Jean Silva is the next big thing at FW. I got Silva by TKO, but he’s showed good grappling as well against Bryce Mitchell.