UFC 317: [#3 LW, #2 UFC] Charles Oliveira vs. [#1 FW, #3 UFC] Ilia Topuria
June 28, 2025 – T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV, USA
Betting Odds, Tale of the Tape & Analytical Breakdown
The main event of UFC 317 pits two elite finishers against each other in a high-stakes lightweight clash. Former champion and submission specialist Charles Oliveira faces undefeated featherweight king Ilia Topuria, who moves up in search of a second-division legacy.
Tale of the Tape
| Fighter | Record | Age | Reach | Rank |
| Charles Oliveira | 35–10 (1 NC) | 35 | 74″ | #3 LW / #2 UFC |
| Ilia Topuria | 16–0 | 28 | 69″ | #1 FW / #3 UFC |
Analytical Breakdown
Charles Oliveira
UFC’s all-time submission leader and former lightweight champ. Known for high-paced aggression and world-class BJJ, but vulnerable to powerful strikers when forced to fight off his back foot.
Ilia Topuria
Undefeated with a 100% finish rate. Clean boxing, strong pressure, and elite composure under fire. Back-to-back dominant wins over Volkanovski and Holloway have established him as a top-tier threat across divisions.
Keys to Victory
Oliveira must close distance quickly and create scrambles to bring the fight to the mat.
Topuria needs to stay composed, control range, and pick Oliveira apart on the feet.
Recommended Bets
| Pick | Avg. Odds | Notes |
| Topuria ML | –350 | Form, youth, momentum |
| Topuria by KO/TKO | +150 to +180 | Logical finish method |
| Oliveira by Submission | +500 to +650 | High-risk/high-value underdog option |
| Under 2.5 Rounds | –120 | Both are aggressive finishers |
| Fight Doesn’t Go Distance | –200 | Likely short fight based on recent trends |
Prediction
Unless Oliveira finds a quick submission, Topuria’s precision striking and relentless pressure should carry him to a finish. Expect a fast-paced, high-drama contest — but the youth and composure of Topuria may prove decisive.
Official Pick: Ilia Topuria via TKO (Round 2)
Value Option: Oliveira by submission (Round 1)
For full rankings, stats, and global fighter comparisons – visit FightMatrix.com
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