Fight Matrix Program – UFC 314: Volkanovski vs Lopes (04-12-2025)

Featherweight Championship (145)
[#2][#2UFC] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0, -147) vs. [#5][#5UFC] Diego Lopes (26-6-0, +123)
Alexander Volkanovski is the All-Time #2 ranked Featherweight and #7 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkanovski (1-2-0)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#1FW][#1DD][#5P4P] Ilia Topuria (16-0-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:32 of round 2
2023-10-21: L vs. [#1LW][#2DD][#1P4P] Islam Makhachev (27-1-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:06 of round 1
2023-07-08: W vs. [#8FW] Yair Rodriguez (19-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:19 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Diego Lopes (3-0-0)
2024-09-14: W vs. [#7FW] Brian Ortega (16-4-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#22FW] Dan Ige (18-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#86FW] Sodiq Yusuff (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:29 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Alexander Volkanovski	-147		57.02%
Elo K170	Alexander Volkanovski	2183.05	+119.20	66.51%
Elo Modified	Alexander Volkanovski	2141.50	+92.43	63.00%
Glicko-1	Alexander Volkanovski	2192.63	+71.19	60.10%
WHR	Alexander Volkanovski	2122.76	+174.10	73.15%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Alexander Volkanovski 36.5, Diego Lopes 30.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkanovski 420, Diego Lopes 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#11][#10UFC] Michael Chandler (23-9-0, +132) vs. [#17][#13UFC] Paddy Pimblett (22-3-0, -158)
Michael Chandler is the All-Time #18 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Michael Chandler (1-2-0)
2024-11-16: L vs. [#3LW] Charles Oliveira (35-10-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)
2022-11-12: L vs. [#6LW] Dustin Poirier (30-9-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:00 of round 3
2022-05-07: W vs. [#109LW] Tony Ferguson (25-11-0) via KO (Front Kick) in 0:17 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Paddy Pimblett (3-0-0)
2024-07-27: W vs. [#41LW] Bobby Green (32-17-1) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:22 of round 1
2023-12-16: W vs. [#109LW] Tony Ferguson (25-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-12-10: W vs. [#53LW] Jared Gordon (20-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Paddy Pimblett	-158		58.69%
Elo K170	Michael Chandler	2029.67	+21.86	53.14%
Elo Modified	Michael Chandler	2002.44	+18.20	52.62%
Glicko-1	Michael Chandler	2069.17	+13.77	51.98%
WHR	Paddy Pimblett	1964.27	+108.81	65.17%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Michael Chandler 38.9, Paddy Pimblett 30.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Chandler 147, Paddy Pimblett 259
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#19][#13UFC] Bryce Mitchell (17-2-0, +261) vs. [#26][#17UFC] Jean Silva (15-2-0, -337)

Last 3 Fights: Bryce Mitchell (2-1-0)
2024-12-07: W vs. [#519FW] Kron Gracie (5-3-0) via KO (Slam and Elbows) in 0:39 of round 3
2023-12-16: L vs. [#12FW] Josh Emmett (19-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:57 of round 1
2023-09-23: W vs. [#22FW] Dan Ige (18-9-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jean Silva (3-0-0)
2025-02-22: W vs. [#267FW] Melsik Baghdasaryan (8-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:15 of round 1
2024-07-13: W vs. [#69LW] Drew Dober (27-15-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 1:28 of round 3
2024-06-29: W vs. [#29BW] Charles Jourdain (16-8-1) via KO (Punch) in 1:22 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Jean Silva	-337		73.57%
Elo K170	Bryce Mitchell	1864.26	+23.02	53.31%
Elo Modified	Bryce Mitchell	1863.71	+6.71	50.97%
Glicko-1	Jean Silva	1929.13	+57.06	58.14%
WHR	Jean Silva	1894.00	+101.27	64.18%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Bryce Mitchell 30.5, Jean Silva 28.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bryce Mitchell 126, Jean Silva 49
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#8][#8UFC] Yair Rodriguez (19-5-0, -196) vs. [#10] Patricio Freire (36-7-0, +161)
Yair Rodriguez is the All-Time #19 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Patricio Freire is the All-Time #9 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Yair Rodriguez (1-2-0)
2024-02-24: L vs. [#7FW] Brian Ortega (16-4-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 0:58 of round 3
2023-07-08: L vs. [#2FW] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:19 of round 3
2023-02-11: W vs. [#12FW] Josh Emmett (19-5-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:19 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Patricio Freire (1-2-0)
2024-03-22: W vs. [#40FW] Jeremy Kennedy (19-6-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:07 of round 3
2023-07-30: L vs. [#25FW] Chihiro Suzuki (13-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:32 of round 1
2023-06-16: L vs. [#14BW] Sergio Pettis (23-7-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 50-45)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Yair Rodriguez	-196		63.35%
Elo K170	Patricio Freire	2076.52	+77.79	61.01%
Elo Modified	Patricio Freire	2050.27	+90.20	62.70%
Glicko-1	Patricio Freire	2056.29	+55.83	57.97%
WHR	Patricio Freire	1894.87	+70.11	59.96%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Yair Rodriguez 32.5, Patricio Freire 37.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yair Rodriguez 413, Patricio Freire 386
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#11][#8UFC] Dominick Reyes (14-4-0, +157) vs. [*] Nikita Krylov (30-9-0, -191)
Dominick Reyes is the All-Time #38 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dominick Reyes (2-1-0)
2024-12-07: W vs. [#15LHW] Anthony Smith (38-21-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:46 of round 2
2024-06-08: W vs. [#21LHW] Dustin Jacoby (20-9-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:00 of round 1
2022-11-12: L vs. [#49HW+] Ryan Spann (22-11-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:20 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Nikita Krylov (3-0-0)
2023-03-11: W vs. [#49HW+] Ryan Spann (22-11-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:38 of round 1
2022-10-22: W vs. [#12LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (20-8-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-07-23: W vs. [*] Alexander Gustafsson (18-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:07 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Nikita Krylov	-191		62.78%
Elo K170	Nikita Krylov	1997.99	+102.60	64.35%
Elo Modified	Nikita Krylov	2002.70	+109.76	65.29%
Glicko-1	Nikita Krylov	2086.94	+148.49	70.16%
WHR	Nikita Krylov	1885.90	+24.79	53.56%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Dominick Reyes 35.3, Nikita Krylov 33.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dominick Reyes 126, Nikita Krylov 763
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Nikita Krylov leads 3-2
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Featherweight (145)
[#22][#15UFC] Dan Ige (18-9-0, +135) vs. [#28][#18UFC] Sean Woodson (13-1-1, -161)

Last 3 Fights: Dan Ige (1-2-0)
2024-10-26: L vs. [#9FW] Lerone Murphy (16-0-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-06-29: L vs. [#5FW] Diego Lopes (26-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-10: W vs. [#57FW] Andre Fili (24-12-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:43 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Sean Woodson (3-0-0)
2024-12-14: W vs. [#99FW] Fernando Padilla (16-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:58 of round 1
2024-05-11: W vs. [#44FW] Alex Caceres (21-15-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-01-20: W vs. [#29BW] Charles Jourdain (16-8-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Sean Woodson	-161		59.18%
Elo K170	Sean Woodson	1855.67	+104.74	64.63%
Elo Modified	Sean Woodson	1807.53	+80.34	61.36%
Glicko-1	Sean Woodson	1843.83	+57.01	58.13%
WHR	Sean Woodson	1754.90	+6.90	50.99%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Dan Ige 33.7, Sean Woodson 32.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Ige 168, Sean Woodson 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#2][#4DD][#5P4P][#2UFC] Virna Jandiroba (21-3-0, -154) vs. [#3][#8DD][#7P4P][#3UFC] Xiaonan Yan (19-4-0, +128)
Xiaonan Yan is the All-Time #49 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Virna Jandiroba (3-0-0)
2024-07-20: W vs. [#4SW] Amanda Lemos (15-4-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:48 of round 2
2024-03-30: W vs. [#15SW] Lupita Godinez (13-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-05-06: W vs. [#14SW] Marina Rodriguez (17-5-2) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Xiaonan Yan (2-1-0)
2024-11-23: W vs. [#8SW] Tabatha Ricci (11-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#1SW][#1DD][#1P4P] Weili Zhang (26-3-0) via UD (49-45, 49-45, 49-45)
2023-05-06: W vs. [#12FLY] Jessica Andrade (26-13-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Virna Jandiroba	-154		58.02%
Elo K170	Virna Jandiroba	1857.65	+23.49	53.38%
Elo Modified	Virna Jandiroba	1839.38	+30.65	54.40%
Glicko-1	Virna Jandiroba	1838.81	+51.60	57.37%
WHR	Virna Jandiroba	1771.02	+41.41	55.93%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Virna Jandiroba 36.8, Xiaonan Yan 35.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Virna Jandiroba 266, Xiaonan Yan 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#52][#28UFC] Jim Miller (38-18-0, +492) vs. [#66][#35UFC] Chase Hooper (15-3-1, -740)
Jim Miller is the All-Time #45 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jim Miller (2-1-0)
2024-11-16: W vs. [*] Damon Jackson (23-8-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:44 of round 1
2024-04-13: L vs. [#41LW] Bobby Green (32-17-1) via UD (29-27, 30-25, 29-26)
2024-01-13: W vs. [#384LW] Gabriel Benitez (23-12-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:25 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Chase Hooper (3-0-0)
2024-12-07: W vs. [#141LW] Clay Guida (38-25-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:41 of round 1
2024-05-11: W vs. [#209LW] Viacheslav Borshchev (8-5-1) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 3:00 of round 2
2023-11-18: W vs. [*] Jordan Leavitt (11-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:58 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Chase Hooper	-740		83.91%
Elo K170	Jim Miller	1767.60	+58.12	58.29%
Elo Modified	Jim Miller	1749.99	+32.93	54.73%
Glicko-1	Jim Miller	1841.06	+47.67	56.82%
WHR	Chase Hooper	1742.74	+60.65	58.64%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jim Miller 41.6, Chase Hooper 25.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jim Miller 147, Chase Hooper 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#58][#33UFC] Darren Elkins (29-11-0, +296) vs. [#77][#40UFC] Julian Erosa (30-11-0, -391)

Last 3 Fights: Darren Elkins (2-1-0)
2024-10-19: W vs. [*] Daniel Pineda (28-17-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-10-14: W vs. [#243WW] T.J. Brown (20-12-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:23 of round 3
2022-12-03: L vs. [#82FW] Jonathan Pearce (14-7-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Julian Erosa (2-1-0)
2024-07-13: W vs. [#114FW] Christian Rodriguez (12-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:49 of round 1
2024-03-23: W vs. [#131FW] Ricardo Ramos (17-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:15 of round 1
2023-04-29: L vs. [#99FW] Fernando Padilla (16-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:41 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Julian Erosa	-391		75.92%
Elo K170	Julian Erosa	1746.40	+13.31	51.92%
Elo Modified	Darren Elkins	1738.08	+18.70	52.69%
Glicko-1	Darren Elkins	1796.13	+62.82	58.94%
WHR	Julian Erosa	1677.90	+21.28	53.06%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Darren Elkins 40.9, Julian Erosa 35.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Darren Elkins 175, Julian Erosa 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Julian Erosa leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#50][#35UFC] Michal Oleksiejczuk (20-9-0, -193) vs. [#104][#50UFC] Sedriques Dumas (11-2-0, +159)

Last 3 Fights: Michal Oleksiejczuk (0-3-0)
2024-08-03: L vs. [#26MW] Sharabutdin Magomedov (15-1-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-06-01: L vs. [#21WW] Kevin Holland (27-13-0) via Technical Submission (Armbar) in 1:34 of round 1
2024-03-09: L vs. [#33MW] Michel Pereira (32-12-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:01 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Sedriques Dumas (2-1-0)
2024-08-03: W vs. [#164MW] Denis Tiuliulin (10-10-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-03-30: L vs. [#43MW] Nursulton Ruziboev (35-9-2) via TKO (Punches) in 3:18 of round 1
2023-10-21: W vs. [*] Abu Azaitar (14-3-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Michal Oleksiejczuk	-193		63.04%
Elo K170	Michal Oleksiejczuk	1613.15	+57.27	58.17%
Elo Modified	Michal Oleksiejczuk	1635.72	+42.01	56.02%
Glicko-1	Michal Oleksiejczuk	1664.60	+84.67	61.95%
WHR	Michal Oleksiejczuk	1603.42	+88.15	62.42%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Michal Oleksiejczuk 30.1, Sedriques Dumas 29.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michal Oleksiejczuk 252, Sedriques Dumas 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Flyweight (125)
[#157][#46UFC] Mitch Raposo (10-2-0, +173) vs. [#246][#51UFC] Su Mudaerji (16-7-0, -213)

Last 3 Fights: Mitch Raposo (2-1-0)
2024-06-01: L vs. [#29FLY] Andre Lima (11-0-0) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 28-29)
2024-01-27: W vs. [#1153FLY] Justin Valentin (4-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:03 of round 4
2023-05-27: W vs. [#632FLY] Tyler Smythe (5-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Su Mudaerji (0-3-0)
2024-10-19: L vs. [#22FLY] Charles Johnson (17-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-12-09: L vs. [*] Tim Elliott (20-13-1) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:02 of round 1
2022-07-16: L vs. [#87FLY] Matt Schnell (16-10-0) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:24 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Su Mudaerji	-213		65.00%
Elo K170	Su Mudaerji	1367.67	+29.12	54.18%
Elo Modified	Mitch Raposo	1415.02	+31.08	54.46%
Glicko-1	Mitch Raposo	1442.28	+58.70	58.37%
WHR	Mitch Raposo	1347.31	+12.73	51.83%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Mitch Raposo 26.5, Su Mudaerji 29.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mitch Raposo 315, Su Mudaerji 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#78][#45UFC] Marco Tulio (13-1-0, -332) vs. [#157][#63UFC] Tresean Gore (5-2-0, +260)

Last 3 Fights: Marco Tulio (3-0-0)
2025-01-11: W vs. [#113MW] Ihor Potieria (25-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 1
2024-08-27: W vs. [#315MW] Matthieu Letho Duclos (7-3-0) via TKO (Spinning Back Kick and Punches) in 2:38 of round 2
2024-01-27: W vs. [#390LHW] Cemey dos Santos (8-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Tresean Gore (2-1-0)
2024-11-09: W vs. [#448MW] Antonio Trocoli (13-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:23 of round 1
2022-10-29: W vs. [#125MW] Josh Fremd (11-6-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:49 of round 2
2022-07-09: L vs. [#86MW] Cody Brundage (11-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:50 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Marco Tulio	-332		73.44%
Elo K170	Marco Tulio	1664.61	+167.85	72.44%
Elo Modified	Marco Tulio	1715.72	+179.30	73.74%
Glicko-1	Marco Tulio	1757.37	+221.76	78.19%
WHR	Marco Tulio	1725.83	+212.30	77.24%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Marco Tulio 30.6, Tresean Gore 30.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marco Tulio 91, Tresean Gore 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#13][#12UFC] Nora Cornolle (8-2-0, -168) vs. [*] Hailey Cowan (7-3-0, +139)

Last 3 Fights: Nora Cornolle (2-1-0)
2024-09-28: L vs. [#11BW] Jacqueline Cavalcanti (9-1-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-04-06: W vs. [#16BW] Melissa Mullins (7-1-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Head Kicks) in 3:06 of round 2
2023-09-02: W vs. [#27BW] Joselyne Edwards (14-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Hailey Cowan (2-1-0)
2023-04-29: L vs. [#33FLY] Jamey-Lyn Horth (7-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-08-16: W vs. [#35BW] Claudia Leite (11-3-0) via SD ()
2022-01-12: W vs. [NA] Monica Franco (2-1-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:17 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Nora Cornolle	-168		59.97%
Elo K170	Nora Cornolle	1430.45	+163.15	71.90%
Elo Modified	Nora Cornolle	1495.00	+230.26	79.01%
Glicko-1	Nora Cornolle	1513.16	+311.71	85.75%
WHR	Nora Cornolle	1488.27	+256.74	81.43%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Nora Cornolle 35.3, Hailey Cowan 33.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nora Cornolle 196, Hailey Cowan 714
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– Implied probability (odds) listed is not the pure mathematical conversion, but the fighters’ share of the combined probability (both added = 100%).

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Alexander Volkanovski
Highest Stored DD Rating: Alexander Volkanovski
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Moderate [***]
Run Date: 2025-4-6