Fight Matrix Program – UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier (06-01-2024)

Lightweight Championship (155)
[#1/#1DD/#3P4P] Islam Makhachev (25-1-0, -632) vs. [#6] Dustin Poirier (30-8-0, +428)
Islam Makhachev is the All-Time #8 ranked Lightweight and #42 ranked Absolute fighter.
Dustin Poirier is the All-Time #4 ranked Lightweight and #27 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Islam Makhachev (3-0-0)
2023-10-21: W vs. [#2FW/#8DD] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:06 of round 1
2023-02-11: W vs. [#2FW/#8DD] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2022-10-22: W vs. [#3LW] Charles Oliveira (34-10-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:16 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Poirier (2-1-0)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#18LW] Benoit St. Denis (13-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:32 of round 2
2023-07-29: L vs. [#5LW] Justin Gaethje (25-5-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:00 of round 2
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Michael Chandler (23-8-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:00 of round 3

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Islam Makhachev	-632		82.00%
Elo K170	Islam Makhachev	2525.11	+256.29	81.39%
Elo Modified	Islam Makhachev	2453.78	+232.02	79.18%
Glicko-1	Islam Makhachev	2573.50	+268.38	82.42%
WHR	Islam Makhachev	2378.24	+318.86	86.24%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Islam Makhachev 224, Dustin Poirier 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Islam Makhachev leads 3-2
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Middleweight (185)
[#3] Sean Strickland (28-6-0, -221) vs. [#16] Paulo Costa (14-3-0, +180)
Sean Strickland is the All-Time #19 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Paulo Costa is the All-Time #26 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Sean Strickland (2-1-0)
2024-01-20: L vs. [#2MW] Dricus Du Plessis (21-2-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#1MW/#10DD] Israel Adesanya (24-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2023-07-01: W vs. [#57MW] Abusupiyan Magomedov (26-6-1) via TKO in 4:20 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Paulo Costa (1-2-0)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#6MW] Robert Whittaker (25-7-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-08-20: W vs. [*] Luke Rockhold (16-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-10-23: L vs. [#8MW] Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) via UD (48-46, 48-46, 48-46)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Sean Strickland	-221		65.84%
Elo K170	Sean Strickland	2086.64	+138.31	68.91%
Elo Modified	Sean Strickland	2129.57	+178.51	73.64%
Glicko-1	Sean Strickland	2206.22	+181.22	73.95%
WHR	Sean Strickland	2060.68	+220.28	78.04%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean Strickland 133, Paulo Costa 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Sean Strickland leads 2-1
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Middleweight (185)
[#17WW] Kevin Holland (25-11-0, -249) vs. [#44] Michal Oleksiejczuk (20-7-0, +198)

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Holland (1-2-0)
2024-03-09: L vs. [#13WW] Michael Page (22-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-09-16: L vs. [#6WW] Jack Della Maddalena (17-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#45WW] Michael Chiesa (16-7-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:39 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michal Oleksiejczuk (1-2-0)
2024-03-09: L vs. [#19MW] Michel Pereira (32-11-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:01 of round 1
2023-08-26: W vs. [#75WW] Chidi Njokuani (23-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:16 of round 1
2023-04-29: L vs. [#17MW] Caio Borralho (16-1-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:49 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Kevin Holland	-249		68.01%
Elo K170	Kevin Holland	1836.81	+130.42	67.93%
Elo Modified	Kevin Holland	1874.82	+156.29	71.09%
Glicko-1	Kevin Holland	1957.17	+210.08	77.02%
WHR	Kevin Holland	1837.20	+169.66	72.64%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kevin Holland 84, Michal Oleksiejczuk 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#8] Jailton Almeida (20-3-0, -269) vs. [#21] Alexander Romanov (17-2-0, +216)

Last 3 Fights: Jailton Almeida (2-1-0)
2024-03-09: L vs. [#5HW+] Curtis Blaydes (18-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:36 of round 2
2023-11-04: W vs. [#13HW+] Derrick Lewis (28-12-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-45)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#12HW+] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (14-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:43 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Romanov (1-2-0)
2023-07-01: W vs. [#28HW+] Blagoy Ivanov (19-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-03-11: L vs. [#6HW+] Alexander Volkov (37-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:16 of round 1
2022-08-20: L vs. [#9HW+] Marcin Tybura (25-8-0) via MD (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Jailton Almeida	-269		69.72%
Elo K170	Jailton Almeida	1904.09	+112.59	65.66%
Elo Modified	Jailton Almeida	1908.36	+81.94	61.58%
Glicko-1	Jailton Almeida	1974.11	+88.51	62.47%
WHR	Jailton Almeida	1891.02	+80.76	61.42%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jailton Almeida 84, Alexander Romanov 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#23] Randy Brown (18-5-0, -172) vs. [#48] Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (24-7-1, +141)

Last 3 Fights: Randy Brown (2-1-0)
2024-02-03: W vs. [#53WW] Muslim Salikhov (19-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:17 of round 1
2023-06-24: W vs. [#140WW] Wellington Turman (18-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-02-11: L vs. [#6WW] Jack Della Maddalena (17-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:13 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (2-0-1)
2023-11-04: D vs. [#47WW] Rinat Fakhretdinov (23-2-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2023-06-03: W vs. [#102WW] Abubakar Nurmagomedov (17-4-1) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-10-30: W vs. [#18LW] Benoit St. Denis (13-2-0) via UD (29-26, 29-26, 29-26)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Randy Brown	-172		60.38%
Elo K170	Randy Brown	1944.89	+37.10	55.32%
Elo Modified	Randy Brown	1908.39	+13.35	51.92%
Glicko-1	Randy Brown	1941.16	+6.11	50.88%
WHR	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	1874.21	+93.95	63.20%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Randy Brown 119, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Randy Brown leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#61] Roman Kopylov (12-3-0, -125) vs. [#104] Cesar Almeida (5-0-0, +103)

Last 3 Fights: Roman Kopylov (2-1-0)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#26MW] Anthony Hernandez (12-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:23 of round 2
2023-09-16: W vs. [#114MW] Josh Fremd (11-5-0) via KO (Punch to the Body) in 4:44 of round 2
2023-07-29: W vs. [#161MW] Claudio Ribeiro (11-5-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:33 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Cesar Almeida (3-0-0)
2024-04-06: W vs. [#164MW] Dylan Budka (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:13 of round 2
2023-08-08: W vs. [#168MW] Lucas Fernando (10-3-0) via UD ()
2021-12-18: W vs. [NA] Danilo de Souza Silva (8-34-1) via KO in 0:38 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Roman Kopylov	-125		53.00%
Elo K170	Roman Kopylov	1695.35	+253.57	81.15%
Elo Modified	Roman Kopylov	1741.44	+234.79	79.44%
Glicko-1	Roman Kopylov	1788.06	+280.56	83.41%
WHR	Roman Kopylov	1709.38	+99.52	63.94%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roman Kopylov 105, Cesar Almeida 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#28] Grant Dawson (20-2-1, -354) vs. [#113] Joe Solecki (13-4-0, +273)

Last 3 Fights: Grant Dawson (2-1-0)
2023-10-07: L vs. [#19LW] Bobby Green (32-15-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 1
2023-07-01: W vs. [#69LW] Damir Ismagulov (24-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-11-05: W vs. [#94LW] Mark O. Madsen (12-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:05 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Joe Solecki (2-1-0)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#31LW] Drakkar Klose (15-2-1) via KO (Slam) in 1:41 of round 1
2023-02-25: W vs. [#382LW] Carl Deaton (17-7-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:55 of round 2
2022-06-04: W vs. [#226LW] Alex da Silva Coelho (24-5-0) via MD (28-28, 28-27, 29-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Grant Dawson	-354		74.41%
Elo K170	Grant Dawson	1952.17	+283.45	83.64%
Elo Modified	Grant Dawson	1914.29	+231.31	79.11%
Glicko-1	Grant Dawson	1961.30	+273.85	82.87%
WHR	Grant Dawson	1835.01	+212.19	77.23%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Grant Dawson 238, Joe Solecki 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Grant Dawson leads 1-0
.

Welterweight (170)
[#44] Philip Rowe (10-4-0, +132) vs. [#57] Jake Matthews (19-7-0, -160)

Last 3 Fights: Philip Rowe (2-1-0)
2023-06-24: L vs. [#20WW] Neil Magny (29-11-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#86WW] Niko Price (15-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:26 of round 3
2022-02-05: W vs. [*] Jason Witt (19-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:15 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jake Matthews (1-2-0)
2023-11-18: L vs. [#24WW] Michael Morales (16-0-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#340LW] Darrius Flowers (12-7-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:37 of round 2
2022-12-17: L vs. [#74WW] Matthew Semelsberger (11-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Jake Matthews	-160		58.81%
Elo K170	Jake Matthews	1682.02	+55.33	57.90%
Elo Modified	Jake Matthews	1691.69	+24.62	53.54%
Glicko-1	Philip Rowe	1754.34	+11.99	51.73%
WHR	Jake Matthews	1617.17	+2.16	50.31%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Philip Rowe 343, Jake Matthews 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#36] Alex Morono (24-9-0, -236) vs. [#86] Niko Price (15-7-0, +190)

Last 3 Fights: Alex Morono (2-1-0)
2024-04-06: W vs. [#114WW] Court McGee (21-13-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-10-07: L vs. [#12WW] Joaquin Buckley (19-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#51WW] Tim Means (33-16-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:09 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Niko Price (1-2-0)
2023-07-08: L vs. [*] Robbie Lawler (30-16-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:38 of round 1
2022-12-03: L vs. [#44WW] Philip Rowe (10-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:26 of round 3
2021-10-02: W vs. [#182WW] Alex Oliveira (25-15-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Alex Morono	-236		67.07%
Elo K170	Alex Morono	1751.97	+214.94	77.51%
Elo Modified	Alex Morono	1789.22	+241.29	80.04%
Glicko-1	Alex Morono	1848.14	+300.77	84.96%
WHR	Alex Morono	1683.66	+228.16	78.81%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex Morono 56, Niko Price 329
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#80] Bassil Hafez (8-4-1, -296) vs. [*] Mickey Gall (7-5-0, +236)

Last 3 Fights: Bassil Hafez (2-1-0)
2023-07-15: L vs. [#6WW] Jack Della Maddalena (17-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-02-17: W vs. [#138WW] Evan Cutts (17-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:50 of round 3
2022-02-06: W vs. [#143WW] Anthony Ivy (14-7-0) via SD ()

Last 3 Fights: Mickey Gall (1-2-0)
2022-04-09: L vs. [#79WW] Mike Malott (10-2-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:41 of round 1
2021-12-04: L vs. [#36WW] Alex Morono (24-9-0) via UD ()
2021-07-24: W vs. [*] Jordan Williams (9-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:57 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Bassil Hafez	-296		71.52%
Elo K170	Bassil Hafez	1462.38	+53.33	57.61%
Elo Modified	Bassil Hafez	1530.15	+80.73	61.41%
Glicko-1	Bassil Hafez	1592.38	+128.83	67.74%
WHR	Bassil Hafez	1610.26	+159.58	71.47%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bassil Hafez 322, Mickey Gall 784
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#22] Ailin Perez (9-2-0, -209) vs. [#37] Joselyne Edwards (13-5-0, +173)

Last 3 Fights: Ailin Perez (2-1-0)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#47BW] Lucie Pudilova (14-9-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-07-15: W vs. [#93BW] Ashlee Evans-Smith (6-6-0) via UD (30-25, 30-25, 30-26)
2022-09-03: L vs. [#42BW] Stephanie Egger (8-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:54 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Joselyne Edwards (2-1-0)
2023-09-02: L vs. [#8BW] Nora Cornolle (8-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-04-15: W vs. [#47BW] Lucie Pudilova (14-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-07-30: W vs. [#113FLY] Ji Yeon Kim (9-7-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Ailin Perez	-209		64.87%
Elo K170	Ailin Perez	1397.65	+50.57	57.23%
Elo Modified	Ailin Perez	1467.91	+150.79	70.43%
Glicko-1	Ailin Perez	1458.59	+167.94	72.45%
WHR	Ailin Perez	1371.60	+156.45	71.11%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ailin Perez 196, Joselyne Edwards 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#50] Andre Lima (8-0-0, -207) vs. [#189] Mitch Raposo (10-1-0, +172)

Last 3 Fights: Andre Lima (3-0-0)
2024-03-23: W vs. [#96FLY] Igor da Silva (8-1-0) via Disqualification (Biting) in 2:52 of round 2
2023-10-10: W vs. [#474FW] Rickson Thai Zenidim Buen (15-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-07-07: W vs. [#1200BW] Igor Taylon (10-5-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:59 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Mitch Raposo (3-0-0)
2024-01-27: W vs. [#805FLY] Justin Valentin (4-3-0) via NC in 3:03 of round 4
2023-05-27: W vs. [#521FLY] Tyler Smythe (4-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 1
2022-11-17: W vs. [*] Flavio Carvalho (7-5-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:19 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Andre Lima	-207		64.71%
Elo K170	Andre Lima	1631.11	+272.92	82.80%
Elo Modified	Andre Lima	1580.76	+192.27	75.15%
Glicko-1	Andre Lima	1562.59	+150.04	70.34%
WHR	Andre Lima	1452.57	+118.79	66.46%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Andre Lima 70, Mitch Raposo 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Islam Makhachev
Highest Stored DD Rating: Islam Makhachev
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Fair [**½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Large [***½]
Run Date: 2024-5-26