This Week’s WHR Parlays… And Bets (UPDATED)

Well, it was a bad week for the parlays… and the “smart” option has been looking pretty stupid.  I’m adding a new requirement for the bets — I must have odds from at least three books to consider a fight.  I noticed last week, that a fight only had odds from one book, and it had incredibly wild swings — probably due to a limited amount of betters taking interest in that fight and/or one rich guy spiking the punch bowl.  This will limit the parlays tremendously, so I will now start posting individual bets if there is only one viable option.  In addition, I’m also going to limit the “smart” parlays to 3 fighters (was 4).

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

• Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
• Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut).  More data makes WHR happy.
• Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.

Now for the options…

“The Underdog” bet/parlay

• Fighters listed are betting underdogs, but WHR favorites.
• Fighters with “negative” odds are not listed.  This can sometimes happen in pick’em fights.
• No maximum fighter amount.
• After 4 fighters (top 4 by WHR Win %), I will only add additional if there is reasonable value (WHR% – Odds%) >20%?

Historical Hit Rate: 1 of 4 (25.0%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 12.5%, WHR: 29.9% – Bankroll: -$135.00

“The Safe” bet/parlay

• Fighters listed have a higher chance to win per WHR than implied probability (odds).
• Fighters listed have at least a 75% chance of winning per WHR.
  • If I can’t get at least one fighter, I’ll bend a little on this percentage.
• Goal is to have a total WHR win percentage of 50% or higher.

Historical Hit Rate: 3 of 5 (60%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 42.7%, WHR: 60.1% – Bankroll: $185.27

“The Smart” bet/parlay

• Fighters listed have the highest difference between WHR win probability and implied probability (odds).
• I’ll sort all qualifying fighters by that difference and cut the parlay off where it drops off significantly.
  • I’m going to aim for WHR favorites with >20% win difference and a max of 3 fighters.

Historical Hit Rate: 0 of 4 (0%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 11.4%, WHR: 36.1% – Bankroll: -$400.00

Other things to consider….

• Our odds are “composite” odds — an average of many major sportsbooks.
• A fight must have odds from at least three bookmakers to be considered.
• This is not “vanilla” WHR (although it is very advanced by default).  Read the FAQ for more info.
• As WHR is an Elo-variant, I’m using the same win probability formula as is the standard in Elo.  If one of you math nerds has a better approach, please let me know.
• “Odds Win %” does not factor in the juice.
• If the “FM Agree” column is “YES”, the standard ratings agree with WHR that the underdog is indeed the underdog and vice-versa.
• Don’t blame us if you lose money.  Gamble at your own risk.
• Bankrolls are based on $100 bets.