This post covers the rest of March. Hopefully we’ll hit something. It is a bit of a dead week, so I’m bending a bit and including some lesser organizations in the parlays.
In this post, I’m going to cover this week’s fights and will now feature three different parlays:
Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights with at least 1 draw or 1 loss. More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Major organizations only. If it is a dead week, I’ll bend. Other interesting bets may be posted in comments.
Now for the parlays…
“The Underdog” parlay
- Fighters listed are betting underdogs, but WHR favorites.
- Fighters with “negative” odds are not listed. This can sometimes happen in pick’em fights.
- All fighters who qualify will be listed. Parlay could be huge!
“The Safe” parlay
- Fighters listed have a higher chance to win per WHR than implied probability (odds).
- Fighters listed have at least a 75% chance of winning per WHR.
- If I can’t get at least two fighters, I’ll bend a little on this percentage.
- Goal is to have a total parlay WHR win percentage of 50% or higher.
“The Smart” parlay
- Fighters listed have the highest difference between WHR win probability and implied probability (odds).
- I’ll sort all qualifying fighters by that difference and cut the parlay off where it drops off significantly.
- I’m going to aim for >15% win difference and 2-4 fighters.
Other things to consider….
- Our odds are “composite” odds — an average of many major sportsbooks.
- This is not “vanilla” WHR (although it is very advanced by default). Read the FAQ for more info.
- As WHR is an Elo-variant, I’m using the same win probability formula as is the standard in Elo. If one of you math nerds has a better approach, please let me know.
- “Odds Win %” does not factor in the juice.
- If the “FM Agree” column is “YES”, the standard ratings agree with WHR that the underdog is indeed the underdog and vice-versa.
- Don’t blame us if you lose money. Gamble at your own risk.
Technically the Underdog parlay hit too…. but only at 1 fight since Butcher withdrew. $265 on $100 bet.
Safe Parlay hit!
Butcher withdrew from his fight… which killed the Underdog parlay and cripples the Smart one.