This Week’s WHR Parlays…

This post covers the rest of March.  Hopefully we’ll hit something.  It is a bit of a dead week, so I’m bending a bit and including some lesser organizations in the parlays.

In this post, I’m going to cover this week’s fights and will now feature three different parlays:

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

• Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
• Both fighters must have at least 5 fights with at least 1 draw or 1 loss.  More data makes WHR happy.
• Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
• Major organizations only.  If it is a dead week, I’ll bend.  Other interesting bets may be posted in comments.

Now for the parlays…

“The Underdog” parlay

• Fighters listed are betting underdogs, but WHR favorites.
• Fighters with “negative” odds are not listed.  This can sometimes happen in pick’em fights.
• All fighters who qualify will be listed.  Parlay could be huge!

“The Safe” parlay

• Fighters listed have a higher chance to win per WHR than implied probability (odds).
• Fighters listed have at least a 75% chance of winning per WHR.
  • If I can’t get at least two fighters, I’ll bend a little on this percentage.
• Goal is to have a total parlay WHR win percentage of 50% or higher.

“The Smart” parlay

• Fighters listed have the highest difference between WHR win probability and implied probability (odds).
• I’ll sort all qualifying fighters by that difference and cut the parlay off where it drops off significantly.
  • I’m going to aim for >15% win difference and 2-4 fighters.

Other things to consider….

• Our odds are “composite” odds — an average of many major sportsbooks.
• This is not “vanilla” WHR (although it is very advanced by default).  Read the FAQ for more info.
• As WHR is an Elo-variant, I’m using the same win probability formula as is the standard in Elo.  If one of you math nerds has a better approach, please let me know.
• “Odds Win %” does not factor in the juice.
• If the “FM Agree” column is “YES”, the standard ratings agree with WHR that the underdog is indeed the underdog and vice-versa.
• Don’t blame us if you lose money.  Gamble at your own risk.