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Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 268: Holloway vs Rodriguez (11-13-2021)

Posted on November 8, 2021 by Jason

Featherweight (145)
[#2/#6DD] Max Holloway (22-6-0, -543) vs. [*] Yair Rodriguez (13-2-0, +389)
Max Holloway is the All-Time #2 ranked Featherweight and #14 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (1-2-0)
2021-01-16: W vs. [#7FW] Calvin Kattar (22-5-0) via UD (50-43, 50-43, 50-42)
2020-07-11: L vs. [#1FW/#2DD/#2P4P] Alexander Volkanovski (23-1-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-12-14: L vs. [#1FW/#2DD/#2P4P] Alexander Volkanovski (23-1-0) via UD (50-45, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Yair Rodriguez (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2019-10-18: W vs. [#75LW] Jeremy Stephens (28-19-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-09-21: NC vs. [#75LW] Jeremy Stephens (28-19-0)
2018-11-10: W vs. [#6FW] Chan Sung Jung (17-6-0) via KO (Elbow) in 4:59 of round 5

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Max Holloway -543 80.50%
Elo K170 Max Holloway 2188.25 +240.62 75.01%
Elo Modified Max Holloway 2192.62 +291.11 78.15%
Glicko-1 Max Holloway 2292.37 +337.12 87.44%
WHR Max Holloway 2113.05 +308.13 80.34%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Max Holloway 301, Yair Rodriguez 757
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Max Holloway leads 3-2
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#27] Ben Rothwell (39-13-0, -160) vs. [#44] Marcos Rogerio de Lima (18-7-1, +132)
Ben Rothwell is the All-Time #50 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ben Rothwell (2-1-0)
2021-05-22: W vs. [#77HW+] Chris Barnett (22-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:07 of round 2
2020-10-10: L vs. [#12HW+] Marcin Tybura (22-7-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
2020-05-13: W vs. [#32LHW] Ovince St. Preux (25-16-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Marcos Rogerio de Lima (2-1-0)
2021-05-08: W vs. [#62HW+] Maurice Greene (9-6-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2020-11-07: L vs. [#38HW+] Alexander Romanov (15-0-0) via Technical Submission (Forearm Choke) in 4:48 of round 1
2020-02-22: W vs. [*] Ben Sosoli (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:28 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ben Rothwell -160 58.81%
Elo K170 Ben Rothwell 1737.57 +155.58 67.06%
Elo Modified Ben Rothwell 1738.73 +117.22 62.55%
Glicko-1 Ben Rothwell 1793.74 +160.23 71.55%
WHR Ben Rothwell 1668.45 +102.83 61.53%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ben Rothwell 175, Marcos Rogerio de Lima 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ben Rothwell leads 2-0
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#32] Ovince St. Preux (25-16-0, +123) vs. [*] Philipe Lins (14-5-0, -149)
Ovince St. Preux is the All-Time #46 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ovince St. Preux (1-2-0)
2021-06-26: L vs. [#32HW+] Tanner Boser (20-8-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:31 of round 2
2020-12-05: L vs. [#23LHW] Jamahal Hill (9-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:37 of round 2
2020-09-05: W vs. [#33LHW] Alonzo Menifield (11-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:07 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Philipe Lins (1-2-0)
2020-06-27: L vs. [#32HW+] Tanner Boser (20-8-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:41 of round 1
2020-05-13: L vs. [#37HW+] Andrei Arlovski (32-20-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-12-31: W vs. [*] Josh Copeland (18-7-1) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 0:30 of round 4

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Philipe Lins -149 57.16%
Elo K170 Philipe Lins 1494.83 +3.05 50.35%
Elo Modified Ovince St. Preux 1595.18 +29.42 53.21%
Glicko-1 Ovince St. Preux 1620.97 +65.08 59.26%
WHR Ovince St. Preux 1589.62 +28.83 53.29%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ovince St. Preux 140, Philipe Lins 504
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Featherweight (145)
[#7] Felicia Spencer (8-3-0, -323) vs. [*] Leah Letson (5-1-0, +244)

Last 3 Fights: Felicia Spencer (1-2-0)
2021-05-22: L vs. [#4FW] Norma Dumont (7-1-0) via SD (30-27, 29-28, 28-29)
2020-06-06: L vs. [#1BW/#1DD/#1P4P] Amanda Nunes (21-4-0) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 50-44)
2020-02-29: W vs. [*] Zarah Fairn dos Santos (6-4-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:37 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Leah Letson (3-0-0)
2018-11-30: W vs. [#34BW] Julija Stoliarenko (9-5-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2017-01-14: W vs. [#65BW] Elizabeth Phillips (7-8-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:18 of round 1
2016-07-30: W vs. [NA] Sarah Payant (3-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:22 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Felicia Spencer -323 72.42%
Elo K170 Felicia Spencer 1387.20 +93.23 60.49%
Elo Modified Felicia Spencer 1477.73 +170.20 67.81%
Glicko-1 Felicia Spencer 1504.35 +244.50 80.33%
WHR Felicia Spencer 1499.17 +214.87 72.74%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Felicia Spencer 175, Leah Letson 1079
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#21] Yadong Song (17-5-1, -157) vs. [#46] Julio Arce (17-4-0, +129)

Last 3 Fights: Yadong Song (2-1-0)
2021-08-07: W vs. [#34BW] Casey Kenney (16-4-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2021-03-06: L vs. [#35BW] Kyler Phillips (9-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-05-16: W vs. [#8BW] Marlon Vera (19-7-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Julio Arce (2-1-0)
2021-07-24: W vs. [#239FW] Andre Ewell (17-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:45 of round 2
2019-11-02: L vs. [#59FW] Hakeem Dawodu (12-2-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#36FW] Julian Erosa (26-9-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:49 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Yadong Song -157 58.31%
Elo K170 Yadong Song 1795.41 +131.87 64.62%
Elo Modified Yadong Song 1757.60 +18.57 52.03%
Glicko-1 Julio Arce 1780.75 +9.48 51.36%
WHR Julio Arce 1716.59 +27.66 53.15%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yadong Song 98, Julio Arce 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#57] Roman Dolidze (9-1-0, +194) vs. [#86] Kyle Daukaus (10-2-0, -246)

Last 3 Fights: Roman Dolidze (2-1-0)
2021-06-05: W vs. [#165MW] Laureano Staropoli (9-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-03-20: L vs. [#46MW] Trevin Giles (14-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-12-05: W vs. [#89LHW] John Allan (14-7-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)

Last 3 Fights: Kyle Daukaus (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2021-10-02: NC vs. [#11MW] Kevin Holland (21-7-0)
2021-05-08: L vs. [#85MW] Phil Hawes (11-3-0) via UD (30-26, 29-27, 30-26)
2020-11-21: W vs. [#144MW] Dustin Stoltzfus (13-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kyle Daukaus -246 67.64%
Elo K170 Roman Dolidze 1597.40 +29.50 53.36%
Elo Modified Kyle Daukaus 1620.05 +20.35 52.22%
Glicko-1 Kyle Daukaus 1627.39 +17.01 52.45%
WHR Roman Dolidze 1548.42 +12.89 51.47%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roman Dolidze 161, Kyle Daukaus 42
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#137] Sean Woodson (8-1-0, -271) vs. [#470] Collin Anglin (8-2-0, +214)

Last 3 Fights: Sean Woodson (2-1-0)
2021-06-05: W vs. [#188FW] Youssef Zalal (10-5-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-06-27: L vs. [#36FW] Julian Erosa (26-9-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:44 of round 3
2019-10-18: W vs. [#154FW] Kyle Bochniak (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Collin Anglin (2-1-0)
2021-07-31: L vs. [#129FW] Melsik Baghdasaryan (7-1-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:50 of round 2
2020-09-15: W vs. [#527FW] Muhammadjon Naimov (6-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 29-27)
2020-01-29: W vs. [*] William Frost (1-2-0) via TKO in 1:36 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Sean Woodson -271 69.63%
Elo K170 Sean Woodson 1483.40 +186.63 70.11%
Elo Modified Sean Woodson 1492.65 +175.90 68.35%
Glicko-1 Sean Woodson 1448.66 +142.97 69.49%
WHR Sean Woodson 1450.66 +199.23 71.31%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean Woodson 161, Collin Anglin 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#38] Cortney Casey (9-9-0, -206) vs. [#102] Liana Jojua (8-4-0, +168)

Last 3 Fights: Cortney Casey (1-2-0)
2021-03-13: L vs. [#30FLY] J.J. Aldrich (10-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2020-06-20: L vs. [#31FLY] Gillian Robertson (9-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:36 of round 3
2020-05-16: W vs. [#88FLY] Mara Romero Borella (12-9-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:36 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Liana Jojua (1-2-0)
2020-10-24: L vs. [#21FLY] Miranda Maverick (9-3-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
2020-07-15: W vs. [#76SW] Diana Belbita (14-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:47 of round 1
2019-09-07: L vs. [#40BW] Sarah Moras (6-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:26 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Cortney Casey -206 64.34%
Elo K170 Cortney Casey 1249.96 +8.23 50.94%
Elo Modified Cortney Casey 1377.38 +115.66 62.39%
Glicko-1 Cortney Casey 1362.01 +125.98 67.38%
WHR Cortney Casey 1339.41 +106.55 61.93%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cortney Casey 245, Liana Jojua 385
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#17] Thiago Moises (15-5-0, -217) vs. [#82] Joel Alvarez (18-2-0, +175)

Last 3 Fights: Thiago Moises (2-1-0)
2021-07-17: L vs. [#6LW] Islam Makhachev (21-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:38 of round 4
2021-02-27: W vs. [#28LW] Alexander Hernandez (13-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2020-10-31: W vs. [#20LW] Bobby Green (28-12-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Joel Alvarez (3-0-0)
2020-10-24: W vs. [#163LW] Alexander Yakovlev (25-11-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:00 of round 1
2020-07-18: W vs. [*] Joseph Duffy (16-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:25 of round 1
2019-06-01: W vs. [#283MW] Danilo Belluardo (13-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:22 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Thiago Moises -217 65.30%
Elo K170 Thiago Moises 1851.09 +87.34 59.84%
Elo Modified Thiago Moises 1842.11 +70.16 57.62%
Glicko-1 Joel Alvarez 1866.83 +2.58 50.37%
WHR Thiago Moises 1771.77 +18.03 52.06%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Thiago Moises 119, Joel Alvarez 385
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#37] Da Un Jung (14-2-1, -139) vs. [#50] Kennedy Nzechukwu (9-1-0, +115)

Last 3 Fights: Da Un Jung (2-0-1)
2021-04-10: W vs. [#69LHW] William Knight (10-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2020-10-24: D vs. [#90MW] Sam Alvey (33-16-1) via Draw (Split) in 5:00 of round 3
2019-12-21: W vs. [#111LHW] Mike Rodriguez (11-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Kennedy Nzechukwu (3-0-0)
2021-06-26: W vs. [#87LHW] Danilo Marques (11-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:20 of round 3
2021-03-06: W vs. [#176LHW] Carlos Ulberg (3-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:19 of round 2
2019-08-03: W vs. [#61HW+] Darko Stosic (16-4-0) via UD (29-26, 28-27, 28-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Da Un Jung -139 55.56%
Elo K170 Da Un Jung 1675.13 +103.58 61.61%
Elo Modified Da Un Jung 1689.08 +56.18 56.12%
Glicko-1 Da Un Jung 1748.20 +141.70 69.33%
WHR Da Un Jung 1644.45 +50.72 55.77%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Da Un Jung 217, Kennedy Nzechukwu 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#50] Miguel Baeza (10-1-0, -144) vs. [#62] Kalinn Williams (12-2-0, +118)

Last 3 Fights: Miguel Baeza (2-1-0)
2021-06-05: L vs. [#28WW] Santiago Ponzinibbio (28-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-11-28: W vs. [#88WW] Takashi Sato (16-4-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:28 of round 2
2020-05-16: W vs. [#58WW] Matt Brown (23-18-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:18 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Kalinn Williams (2-1-0)
2021-06-19: W vs. [#140WW] Matthew Semelsberger (9-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-12-19: L vs. [#49WW] Michel Pereira (27-11-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-11-14: W vs. [#68MW] Abdul Razak Alhassan (11-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:30 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Miguel Baeza -144 56.26%
Elo K170 Miguel Baeza 1719.43 +49.96 55.68%
Elo Modified Miguel Baeza 1688.59 +14.02 51.53%
Glicko-1 Miguel Baeza 1742.82 +29.21 54.19%
WHR Miguel Baeza 1662.31 +53.46 56.08%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Miguel Baeza 161, Kalinn Williams 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#10] Cynthia Calvillo (9-3-1, -105) vs. [#14] Andrea Lee (12-5-0, -118)

Last 3 Fights: Cynthia Calvillo (1-2-0)
2021-09-25: L vs. [#2FLY/#7DD/#10P4P] Jessica Andrade (22-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:54 of round 1
2020-11-21: L vs. [#3FLY] Katlyn Chookagian (16-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-06-13: W vs. [#18FLY] Jessica Eye (15-10-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Andrea Lee (1-2-0)
2021-05-15: W vs. [#33FLY] Antonina Shevchenko (9-4-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 4:52 of round 2
2020-09-12: L vs. [#25FLY] Roxanne Modafferi (25-19-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-02-08: L vs. [#6FLY] Lauren Murphy (15-5-0) via SD (30-27, 29-28, 28-29)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Andrea Lee -118 51.38%
Elo K170 Cynthia Calvillo 1542.20 +135.73 65.02%
Elo Modified Cynthia Calvillo 1566.84 +88.29 59.55%
Glicko-1 Cynthia Calvillo 1547.33 +29.94 54.30%
WHR Cynthia Calvillo 1486.64 +13.46 51.54%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cynthia Calvillo 49, Andrea Lee 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Cynthia Calvillo leads 2-1
.

Lightweight (155)
[#108] Rafael Alves (19-10-0, +121) vs. [*] Marc Diakiese (14-4-0, -151)

Last 3 Fights: Rafael Alves (2-1-0)
2021-05-22: L vs. [#40LW] Damir Ismagulov (23-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-08-25: W vs. [#124FW] Alejandro Flores Garcia (20-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:55 of round 2
2019-04-26: W vs. [#149LW] Felipe Douglas (17-5-0) via TKO in 2:18 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Marc Diakiese (2-1-0)
2020-07-18: L vs. [#16LW] Rafael Fiziev (10-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-09-28: W vs. [#29FW] Lando Vannata (12-5-2) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2019-03-16: W vs. [*] Joseph Duffy (16-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Marc Diakiese -151 57.07%
Elo K170 Rafael Alves 1699.65 +210.37 72.33%
Elo Modified Rafael Alves 1692.73 +150.03 65.85%
Glicko-1 Rafael Alves 1734.67 +162.08 71.77%
WHR Rafael Alves 1678.96 +59.93 56.80%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael Alves 175, Marc Diakiese 483
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Max Holloway
Highest Stored DD Rating: Max Holloway
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Very Good [***½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Fair [**½]
Run Date: 2021-11-7

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