“UFC Undisputed 2010” by Peiyu Liu (CC BY-NC 2.0)
When Khabib “The Eagle” Nurmagomedov takes on Tony Ferguson at UFC 223, their de facto world lightweight title fight will be between two fighters with one combined loss in UFC. With so much on the line, can Nurmagomedov keep his perfect record intact and earn a first UFC championship? Or will Tony Ferguson cash in and turn his interim championship into a real championship?
This fight between Nurmagomedov and Ferguson will be a battle of contrasting styles, thanks to Ferguson’s history of wins via submission and Khabib’s history of winning by knockout or decision. The Russian tends to control fights, waiting for his opponent to wear down to allow him to land the ideal combination to score a finish. If that opportunity doesn’t present itself, he is more than content to win by decision. Ferguson, meanwhile, takes the fight straight to his opponent, getting them out of their comfort zones to score submission wins.
In a fight like this, where there isn’t a defined champion coming into the fight, bettors will tend to look at the way a fighter wins their fights to make their decisions. More often than not, bettors will look at the fighter with the flashier victories and view them as superior. This is an understandable reaction, as it is human nature to remember something when it is done in spectacular fashion. Unfortunately for bettors, though, this is a flawed approach.
Fighting, like other sports, is one that rewards backing consistency over flash, and substance over style. A series of wins by decision are superior to a series of stoppages, as the decision victories show that fighter has exhibited consistent control over the octagon instead of a short stretch of control over a fight. For that reason, it is actually prudent to use a UK free bet on a fighter that is a grinder over one who wins several shortened fights. With companies like Paddy Power offering £20 risk-free bets, it can pay dividends to back an outsider.
This is especially true in a fight between two championship caliber fighters. It is much less likely for a championship level fighter to submit in a title bout than it is for a lesser fighter to submit during a non-title bout. And with Nurmagomedov’s manager vowing for his client to immobilize Ferguson in the fight, it doesn’t seem like the Eagle’s camp thinks a submission will take place here.
Nurmagomedov’s team isn’t the only one confident heading into this fight. After Ferguson claimed that he would take out Conor McGregor after he took care of business against his Russian opponent at UFC 223. You have to appreciate the confidence that all parties have coming into this lightweight title clash, but that confidence means nothing if it can’t be backed up in the octagon.
The winner of this fight is set to claim the UFC light heavyweight title vacated by Conor McGregor, who abdicated that throne by deciding to box Floyd Mayweather instead. And while McGregor may be planning another big money sideshow with Mayweather, the specter of fighting McGregor looms for the winner of this fight, as the title defenses will begin for the victor.