If you’ve been hiding out under a 145-lbs rock for a few weeks, it might come as a surprise that UFC 189 is not the only MMA event taking place in an eight-sided cage this weekend. For some odd reason, UFC decided to follow the biggest Pay-Per-View event of the year with a rather bland and pedestrian Ultimate Fighter Season 21 finale the very next day. To be fair, this is actually a decent card by TUF Finale standards. There are no titles or even title shots on the line here, and I’ve stopped watching ‘TUF’ many seasons ago, so I don’t care much about the finals per se. Still, there is a handful of fights worth catching here, and if you’re a gambler, perhaps recoup some of your losses from the Mendes-McGregor fight on one of MMA betting sites.
Main Event: [#15 WW] Jake Ellenberger vs [#29 WW] Stephen Thompson
Worth: $10
Why: A seasoned veteran taking on a young prospect: a story as old as combat sports. But it’s always unusual when the veteran is actually younger than the prospect, despite having a huge advantage in fight experience (or disadvantage in the mileage/wear and tear that comes with the fight experience, depending on how you look at it). Such is the case in this fight: 30 year old Ellenberger has been fighting for over 10 years, with 39 recorded professional bouts under his belt, while his 32 year old opponent has only been in the sport for 5 years and competed in just 11 fights.
Ellenberger is a fairly well-rounded fighter, who tends to overly rely on his punching power, yet often hesitates to pull the trigger in striking exchanges. This has prevented him from ever getting a shot at the welterweight gold, and cost him 3 consecutive losses. On the verge of losing his spot on the UFC roster, ‘The Juggernaut’ made a nice comeback with a second round submission of Josh Koscheck, and will now look to build another win streak. Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson is primarily a striker, with the only loss of his career coming via a decision courtesy of Matt Brown. Although Thompson’s last fight with Patrick Cote was a very boring affair, the karate expert has knocked out 3 of his 6 UFC opponents, so Ellenberger would be wise to take this fight to the ground. However Jake has never demonstrated a great fight IQ, so I expect him to attempt slugging it out with Thompson. This fight could really be anything from a quick and brutal KO by either opponent, to a 5-round dance competition. Of course I am hoping it doesn’t turn into the latter.
Fight: [#18 LW] Jorge Masvidal vs [#63 MW] Cezar Ferreira
Worth: $10
Why: This is one of those rare fights where both opponents are switching weight classes. Jorge ‘Gamebred’ Masvidal has been a mainstay of the lightweight division for most of his career, though he has dabbled in a few welterweight fights. The veteran of Strikeforce, Bellator, and Sengoku, Masvidal is 6-2 in the UFC, but has never been able to break into the elite contender tier. After dropping a controversial split decision to Al Iaquinta, Jorge is taking another jab at 170 lbs. His opponent Cezar ‘Mutante’ Ferreira is moving in the opposite direction: the winner of the original ‘TUF Brazil’ series is 4-2 in the UFC’s middleweight division, but he has been knocked out in both of his losses, raising questions about his chin as well as his size disadvantage compared to other middleweights. Masvidal certainly looks to be a lot closer in size to Mutante than most of Ferreira’s UFC opponents to date. We will find out which fighter can find greater success in the welterweight division.
Fight: [#3 W105] Michelle Waterson vs [NR] Angela Magana
Worth: $2.50
Why: I am mildly interested in the UFC debut of Michelle ‘The Karate Hottie’ Waterson – even though she is coming off a loss and moving up to a weight class which she is likely to small for, just for the opportunity to fight in the Octagon. She is facing a very beatable opponent in Angela Magana in her UFC debut, though I don’t see her having long-term success in this division with Joanna Jedrzejczyk at the helm.
Fight: [#30 MW] Josh Samman vs [#33 MW] Caio Magalhaes
Worth: $5
Why: ‘The Ultimate Fighter 17’ contestant Josh Samman has not been fighting very often, but he scored second round knockouts on both of his UFC opponents to date. He is taking on Caio ‘Hellboy’ Magalhaes, who has won four straight after dropping a decision in his UFC debut, and also stopped his last two opponents – both in the first minute of the fight. This should be an exciting striking battle.
Fight: [#89 MW] Trevor Smith vs [NR] Dan Miller
Worth: $2.50
Why: I’ve always been fond of both sets of MMA’s Miller bros, particularly Jim and Dan. Though Dan Miller only has a .500 record in the UFC, you can always count on him for a fun fight. Dan is returning to action after a 2+ year layoff, and is taking on a mid-to-lower tier opponent in Trevor Smith. Hopefully Miller will walk away with a W and jump-start his faltering career.
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Fox Sports 1 Event Worth: $30
Fox Sports 1 Valuation: $5 (see how I came up with this valuation)
Net Value: $25
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Fight Pass Prelims Worth: $0
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Cost: $69.93
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Value: $-9.43
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Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Worth: $316.50
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Valuation: $68
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Net Value: $248.5