And now for the men’s biggest upsets of all-time. In case you missed the guidelines or the women’s list, click here!
The Upsets
#5 – (2268pts) [1-2-0] Tristan Yunker W(SUB) [18-3-0] Clay Guida
KOTC – Redemption on the River (February 17, 2006)
I remember this fight being one of the first big upsets that I noticed when Fight Matrix came online. I thought it was some kind of data error. We all know who Clay Guida is, while Yunker himself had a decent career, going 11-5 before the wheels came off and he started fighting bigger, well known opposition like Hector Lombard.
#4 – (2279pts) [0-3-0] Ben Santiago W(TKO) [18-7-0] Paulo da Silva
Destiny MMA – Na Koa 1 (September 8, 2012)
Neither of these names ring a bell, but you have to imagine that da Silva would’ve been a massive betting favorite, if odds would’ve been available for this one. Part of me wonders if this is a case of mistaken identity and this is the wrong Paulo because I found an old article covering the event and there was no mention of an enormous upset taking place.
#3 – (2365pts) [15-100-0] Jay Ellis W(SUB) [14-4-0] Rodrigo Almeida
NEF 45: Uprising (November 5, 2021)
Yes, you’re reading that right. Ellis had 100 pro losses coming into this fight. It looks like Almeida took this as a sign that his MMA career was over, as he had one more fight after this against a 7-15 fighter, which he did win. Ellis is still fighting and added 12 losses to his record after this big upset in 2021.
#2 – (2377pts) [1-3-0] Joe Schilling W(KO) [29-11-1] Melvin Manhoef
Bellator 131 – Tito vs. Bonnar (November 15, 2014)
A bit of a strange one here. Schilling, a slight betting underdog (+140), had previous success in kickboxing but not so much in MMA. Manhoef, also a former kickboxer, went toe-to-toe with Schilling and ultimately failed. Score one for the gamblers as they most definitely outsmarted the MMA math, which gave Manhoef nearly a 99% chance of winning.
#1 – (2503pts) [1-1-0] Mark Hunt W(SD) [27-3-1] Wanderlei Silva
Pride – Shockwave 2004 (December 31, 2024)
With an expected 99%+ chance of losing, the former kickboxer Mark Hunt stuns Elo, Glicko, and Wanderlei. I briefly searched for betting odds, but was unsuccessful, though I have to imagine many people gave the Super Samoan a decent chance due to his kickboxing experience and size advantage. Adding to this, Wanderlei was only given two days notice for the fight. An awesome recipe for an upset.
Other notable upsets….
- If I included undefeated fighters, King Mo’s debut win over Travis Wiuff (55-11) would’ve taken the top spot. Only in Japan. Anyone know what the betting odds for this one were?
- One of my favorites was filtered out by the same rule and that was Ray Mercer’s KO win over Tim Sylvia back in 2009. This one would’ve made the Top 5.