Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
“The Underdog” bet/parlay
- Fighters listed are betting underdogs, but WHR favorites.
- Fighters with “negative” odds are not listed. This can sometimes happen in pick’em fights.
- No maximum fighter amount.
- After 4 fighters (top 4 by WHR Win %), I will only add additional if there is reasonable value (WHR% – Odds%) >20%?
2025 Hit Rate: 1 of 2 (50.0%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 31.1%, WHR: 60.3% – Profit/Loss: +$11.00
“The Safe” bet/parlay
- Fighters listed have a higher chance to win per WHR than implied probability (odds).
- Fighters listed all have negative odds (almost always betting favorites).
- Fighters listed have at least a 75% chance of winning per WHR.
- If I can’t get at least one bet, I’ll bend a little on this percentage.
- Goal is to have a total WHR win percentage of 50% or higher.
2025 Hit Rate: 1 of 1 (100.0%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 74.8%, WHR: 88.2% – Profit/Loss: +$33.67
Other things to consider….
- WHR referenced in this post is fighter age-adjusted using a formula driven by previous results.
- “Odds Win %” does not factor in the “juice”.
- Our odds are composite odds — an average of many major sportsbooks.
- As WHR is an Elo-variant, I’m using the same win probability formula as is the standard in Elo. If one of you math nerds has a better approach, please let me know.
- If the “FM Agree” column is “YES”, the standard ratings agree with WHR that the underdog is indeed the underdog and vice-versa.
- Don’t blame us if you lose money. Gamble at your own risk.
- Profit/Loss is based on $100 bet per parlay.
- If the opponent changes or the fight is scrapped, I will adjust the profit if the parlay cashes.