And we’re back…. I’m going to wipe the slate clean again, but at the end of the last run in 2024, we were in the green for both Underdog and Safe picks.
To be clear, the goal in the Underdog parlay is to beat the odds, not necessarily to turn a profit. The goal in the Safe parlay is not only to beat the odds, but also to make a profit.
Though one of our last parlays got marred by a bad weight miss, we’re going to continue with the same rules, but I’m thinking of making the bet amount variable in the future…
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
“The Underdog” bet/parlay
- Fighters listed are betting underdogs, but WHR favorites.
- Fighters with “negative” odds are not listed. This can sometimes happen in pick’em fights.
- No maximum fighter amount.
- After 4 fighters (top 4 by WHR Win %), I will only add additional if there is reasonable value (WHR% – Odds%) >20%?
“The Safe” bet/parlay
- Fighters listed have a higher chance to win per WHR than implied probability (odds).
- Fighters listed all have negative odds (almost always betting favorites).
- Fighters listed have at least a 75% chance of winning per WHR.
- If I can’t get at least one bet, I’ll bend a little on this percentage.
- Goal is to have a total WHR win percentage of 50% or higher.
[ No qualifying fights ]
Other things to consider….
- WHR referenced in this post is fighter age-adjusted using a formula driven by previous results.
- “Odds Win %” does not factor in the “juice”.
- Our odds are composite odds — an average of many major sportsbooks.
- As WHR is an Elo-variant, I’m using the same win probability formula as is the standard in Elo. If one of you math nerds has a better approach, please let me know.
- If the “FM Agree” column is “YES”, the standard ratings agree with WHR that the underdog is indeed the underdog and vice-versa.
- Don’t blame us if you lose money. Gamble at your own risk.
- Profit/Loss is based on $100 bet per parlay.
- If the opponent changes or the fight is scrapped, I will adjust the profit if the parlay cashes.