Betting on the favorite. It’s sensible. It also doesn’t bring the same level of excitement compared to betting on the underdog.
Yes, favorites naturally dominate the odds, but it’s not uncommon for underdogs to pull off stunning upsets. This means betting on fighters with longer odds can be one of the most rewarding strategies for MMA fans and bettors alike.
However, you cannot be too haphazard when betting on fighters with longer odds. It requires strategy and knowledge. To help, this guide outlines key strategies to maximize your chances of success when wagering on MMA underdogs.
Analyze Fight Styles and Matchups
If you follow the sport, you’ll know MMA fights are as much about styles as they are about skill. Due to this, you should pay close attention to how the fighters’ styles match up. A stylistic advantage can bridge the gap and make a long shot worth a bet.
For example, the favorite may be known for having heavy hands and exceptional striking ability. Yet if their takedown defense is weak and the underdog has strong grappling skills, there’s a realistic opening for the long shot to get the win.
Look for Shifts in Momentum
It’s easy to focus on a fighter’s overall record. However, it’s more important to look at their recent performances. Has the underdog shown improvement in areas like takedown defense or cardio? Perhaps the favorite has struggled in recent fights and demonstrated weaker punch resistance?
Trends like this can suggest the underdog has a better shot than the odds suggest. This is certainly the case if they’ve demonstrated improvement even in recent losing efforts.
Capitalize on Free Bets
One of the safest ways to bet on underdogs is to use free bets offered by major sportsbooks. Nearly all platforms feature promotional offers for new and existing customers. Some of these allow you to wager without putting your own money on the line.
When betting on MMA, you can use these free bets strategically to back high-odds underdogs. It doesn’t matter if the bet doesn’t pan out – there’s no risk involved. Plus, if an upset does happen, the payout can be a substantial one.
Study Fight Camps
The quality of a competitor’s training camp often influences their performance on fight night. This is why it can be savvy to research the underdog’s gym and preparations. Are they training alongside elite fighters? Have they had a full training camp without interruption?
Fighters from the best camps will have the resources – including top-tier sparring partners – that can help overcome the odds.
Bet on Specific Outcomes
It’s true: you’re already going to gain favorable odds when betting on the underdog. However, you should also consider placing wagers on specific outcomes. Think by submission or decision.
Outcome-specific bets naturally come with higher odds. Plus, underdogs often have one realistic way of winning a fight. For example, if they’re known to possess heavy hands, a bet on a KO finish could offer notably better value than a simple win bet on your fighter of choice.