Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 (01-11-2025)

Women Strawweight (115)
[#5] Amanda Ribas (13-5-0, -195) vs. [#7] Mackenzie Dern (14-5-0, +161)

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Ribas (1-2-0)
2024-03-23: L vs. [#6FLY] Rose Namajunas (13-7-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#31SW] Luana Pinheiro (11-4-0) via TKO (Spinning Wheel Kick and Punches) in 3:53 of round 3
2023-06-24: L vs. [#7FLY] Maycee Barber (14-2-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:42 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Mackenzie Dern (1-2-0)
2024-08-03: W vs. [#13SW] Lupita Godinez (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#4SW] Amanda Lemos (14-4-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-11-11: L vs. [#12FLY] Jessica Andrade (26-13-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Amanda Ribas	-195		63.30%
Elo K170	Mackenzie Dern	1628.42	+27.49	53.95%
Elo Modified	Mackenzie Dern	1629.33	+16.22	52.33%
Glicko-1	Mackenzie Dern	1607.13	+6.86	50.99%
WHR	Amanda Ribas	1609.18	+45.71	56.54%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Amanda Ribas 294, Mackenzie Dern 161
Previous Match-up Record: Amanda Ribas leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#59] Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-8-0, -138) vs. [#65] Carlston Harris (19-6-0, +115)

Last 3 Fights: Santiago Ponzinibbio (1-2-0)
2024-07-13: L vs. [#37WW] Muslim Salikhov (21-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-04-08: L vs. [#18MW] Kevin Holland (26-12-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:16 of round 3
2022-12-10: W vs. [#54WW] Alex Morono (24-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:29 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Carlston Harris (2-1-0)
2024-05-18: L vs. [#35WW] Kalinn Williams (15-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:30 of round 1
2023-08-05: W vs. [#63WW] Jeremiah Wells (12-4-1) via Technical Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 1:50 of round 3
2023-03-11: W vs. [#88WW] Jared Gooden (23-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Santiago Ponzinibbio	-138		55.48%
Elo K170	Carlston Harris	1769.20	+84.12	61.87%
Elo Modified	Santiago Ponzinibbio	1801.41	+25.02	53.59%
Glicko-1	Santiago Ponzinibbio	1859.60	+55.66	57.94%
WHR	Carlston Harris	1772.13	+59.72	58.51%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Santiago Ponzinibbio 182, Carlston Harris 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Carlston Harris leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#73] Cesar Almeida (6-1-0, -261) vs. [#84] Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-6-0, +210)

Last 3 Fights: Cesar Almeida (2-1-0)
2024-10-05: W vs. [#88MW] Ihor Potieria (25-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-06-01: L vs. [#59MW] Roman Kopylov (13-3-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)
2024-04-06: W vs. [#176MW] Dylan Budka (7-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:13 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Abdul Razak Alhassan (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2024-07-13: NC vs. [#96MW] Cody Brundage (10-6-0)
2023-10-07: L vs. [#22MW] Joe Pyfer (13-3-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:05 of round 2
2023-01-14: W vs. [#149MW] Claudio Ribeiro (12-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:28 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Cesar Almeida	-261		69.14%
Elo K170	Cesar Almeida	1529.56	+48.53	56.94%
Elo Modified	Cesar Almeida	1614.28	+58.79	58.38%
Glicko-1	Cesar Almeida	1640.38	+49.78	57.12%
WHR	Cesar Almeida	1692.21	+122.12	66.89%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cesar Almeida 98, Abdul Razak Alhassan 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#19] Chris Curtis (31-11-0, +206) vs. [#59] Roman Kopylov (13-3-0, -256)

Last 3 Fights: Chris Curtis (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2024-04-06: L vs. [#11MW] Brendan Allen (24-6-0) via SD (48-47, 49-46, 47-48)
2024-01-20: W vs. [#53MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-9-0) via SD (28-29, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-06-10: NC vs. [#5MW] Nassourdine Imavov (15-4-0)

Last 3 Fights: Roman Kopylov (2-1-0)
2024-06-01: W vs. [#73MW] Cesar Almeida (6-1-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#17MW] Anthony Hernandez (13-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:23 of round 2
2023-09-16: W vs. [#123MW] Josh Fremd (11-6-0) via KO (Punch to the Body) in 4:44 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Roman Kopylov	-256		68.75%
Elo K170	Chris Curtis	1826.84	+99.22	63.90%
Elo Modified	Chris Curtis	1871.14	+148.97	70.21%
Glicko-1	Chris Curtis	1941.29	+200.54	76.03%
WHR	Chris Curtis	1814.45	+79.22	61.21%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chris Curtis 280, Roman Kopylov 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#107] Austin Bashi (13-0-0, -277) vs. [#192] Christian Rodriguez (11-2-0, +222)

Last 3 Fights: Austin Bashi (3-0-0)
2024-09-03: W vs. [#392FW] Dorian Ramos (8-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:15 of round 2
2024-06-01: W vs. [#1007FW] Zac Riley (9-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:48 of round 1
2023-09-30: W vs. [*] Askar Askar (14-4-0) via Submission (Choke) in 1:48 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Christian Rodriguez (2-1-0)
2024-07-13: L vs. [#72FW] Julian Erosa (30-11-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:49 of round 1
2024-03-16: W vs. [#216FW] Isaac Dulgarian (7-1-0) via SD (28-27, 27-28, 28-27)
2023-10-14: W vs. [#280BW] Cameron Saaiman (9-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Austin Bashi	-277		70.28%
Elo K170	Austin Bashi	1690.60	+109.35	65.24%
Elo Modified	Austin Bashi	1720.23	+172.36	72.95%
Glicko-1	Austin Bashi	1746.58	+229.76	78.96%
WHR	Austin Bashi	1601.60	+85.42	62.05%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Austin Bashi 130, Christian Rodriguez 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#44] Uros Medic (10-2-0, -221) vs. [#98] Punahele Soriano (10-4-0, +179)

Last 3 Fights: Uros Medic (2-1-0)
2024-04-27: W vs. [#67WW] Tim Means (33-17-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:09 of round 1
2023-11-18: L vs. [#48LW] Myktybek Orolbai (13-2-2) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 4:12 of round 2
2023-07-29: W vs. [#103WW] Matthew Semelsberger (11-8-0) via TKO (Spinning Backfist and Punches) in 2:36 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Punahele Soriano (1-2-0)
2024-06-08: W vs. [#262WW] Miguel Baeza (10-4-0) via UD (30-25, 30-25, 30-27)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#43MW] Dustin Stoltzfus (16-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:10 of round 2
2023-01-14: L vs. [#59MW] Roman Kopylov (13-3-0) via TKO (Body Kick and Punches) in 3:19 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Uros Medic	-221		65.76%
Elo K170	Uros Medic	1637.39	+122.02	66.87%
Elo Modified	Uros Medic	1662.85	+100.33	64.05%
Glicko-1	Uros Medic	1728.32	+154.19	70.84%
WHR	Uros Medic	1640.71	+134.99	68.51%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Uros Medic 259, Punahele Soriano 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Flyweight (125)
[#82] Felipe Bunes (13-7-0, +155) vs. [#140] Jose Johnson (17-9-0, -187)

Last 3 Fights: Felipe Bunes (2-1-0)
2024-01-13: L vs. [#21FLY] Joshua Van (12-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:31 of round 2
2023-01-06: W vs. [*] Yuma Horiuchi (10-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:45 of round 1
2022-07-08: W vs. [*] Wascar Cruz (12-11-0) via SD ()

Last 3 Fights: Jose Johnson (1-2-0)
2024-06-15: L vs. [#12FLY] Asu Almabaev (21-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#168BW] Chad Anheliger (13-8-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 3
2023-08-12: L vs. [#46BW] DaMon Blackshear (15-7-1) via Submission (Twister) in 3:47 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Jose Johnson	-187		62.42%
Elo K170	Jose Johnson	1533.99	+76.18	60.79%
Elo Modified	Jose Johnson	1539.24	+76.14	60.79%
Glicko-1	Jose Johnson	1571.12	+93.82	63.18%
WHR	Jose Johnson	1459.86	+58.77	58.38%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Felipe Bunes 364, Jose Johnson 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#88] Ihor Potieria (25-7-0, +375) vs. [#95] Marco Tulio (12-1-0, -500)

Last 3 Fights: Ihor Potieria (1-2-0)
2024-10-05: L vs. [#73MW] Cesar Almeida (6-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-05-04: L vs. [#30MW] Michel Pereira (32-12-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:54 of round 1
2024-02-10: W vs. [#114MW] Robert Bryczek (17-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Marco Tulio (3-0-0)
2024-08-27: W vs. [#397MW] Matthieu Letho Duclos (6-3-0) via TKO (Spinning Back Kick and Punches) in 2:38 of round 2
2024-01-27: W vs. [#385LHW] Cemey dos Santos (8-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 2
2023-08-29: W vs. [#179MW] Yousri Belgaroui (8-3-0) via UD ()

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Marco Tulio	-500		79.83%
Elo K170	Marco Tulio	1619.82	+178.90	73.69%
Elo Modified	Marco Tulio	1677.17	+192.34	75.16%
Glicko-1	Marco Tulio	1706.11	+193.13	75.24%
WHR	Marco Tulio	1671.94	+209.78	76.99%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ihor Potieria 98, Marco Tulio 137
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#50] Trey Ogden (18-6-0, +146) vs. [#76] Thiago Moises (18-8-0, -176)

Last 3 Fights: Trey Ogden (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2024-07-20: W vs. [#64LW] Loik Radzhabov (19-6-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-03-23: W vs. [#106LW] Kurt Holobaugh (21-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-11-18: NC vs. [#128LW] Nikolas Motta (15-5-0)

Last 3 Fights: Thiago Moises (1-2-0)
2024-06-08: L vs. [#39LW] Ludovit Klein (23-4-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-03-16: W vs. [#285LW] Mitch Ramirez (8-2-0) via TKO (Leg Kicks) in 0:15 of round 3
2023-09-02: L vs. [#24LW] Benoit St. Denis (13-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:44 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Thiago Moises	-176		61.07%
Elo K170	Trey Ogden	1792.21	+85.08	62.00%
Elo Modified	Trey Ogden	1822.83	+97.49	63.67%
Glicko-1	Trey Ogden	1864.83	+96.85	63.59%
WHR	Trey Ogden	1763.37	+70.12	59.96%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Trey Ogden 175, Thiago Moises 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#94] Preston Parsons (11-5-0, +270) vs. [#192] Jacobe Smith (9-0-0, -357)

Last 3 Fights: Preston Parsons (1-2-0)
2024-07-27: L vs. [#52WW] Oban Elliott (12-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-01-13: W vs. [#103WW] Matthew Semelsberger (11-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-03-25: L vs. [#152WW] Trevin Giles (16-7-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jacobe Smith (3-0-0)
2024-10-01: W vs. [#672WW] Christien Savoie (10-2-1) via TKO (Elbows) in 2:55 of round 2
2024-02-23: W vs. [#2157WW] Jared McLoughlin (7-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:18 of round 1
2023-09-17: W vs. [*] Brian Grinnell (12-11-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:01 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Jacobe Smith	-357		74.29%
Elo K170	Jacobe Smith	1495.89	+6.13	50.88%
Elo Modified	Jacobe Smith	1553.43	+4.51	50.65%
Glicko-1	Preston Parsons	1564.19	+16.85	52.42%
WHR	Preston Parsons	1531.53	+53.48	57.64%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Preston Parsons 168, Jacobe Smith 102
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#33] Nicolle Caliari (8-2-0, +216) vs. [#108] Ernesta Kareckaite (5-1-1, -269)

Last 3 Fights: Nicolle Caliari (3-0-0)
2024-09-10: W vs. [#89FLY] Corinne Laframboise (8-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:45 of round 1
2023-10-29: W vs. [#148FLY] Daniella Oliveira (6-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in of round 2
2023-08-26: W vs. [#147SW] Carolina Jimenez (8-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:50 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ernesta Kareckaite (2-1-0)
2024-05-04: L vs. [#51FLY] Dione Barbosa (7-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-09-26: W vs. [#166FLY] Carli Judice (3-2-0) via SD ()
2023-01-22: W vs. [*] Laetitia Blot (4-1-1) via SD ()

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Ernesta Kareckaite	-269		69.72%
Elo K170	Nicolle Caliari	1430.71	+182.42	74.08%
Elo Modified	Nicolle Caliari	1446.42	+234.84	79.44%
Glicko-1	Nicolle Caliari	1489.13	+358.31	88.72%
WHR	Nicolle Caliari	1478.06	+299.38	84.85%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nicolle Caliari 123, Ernesta Kareckaite 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#81] Bruno Lopes (13-1-0, +193) vs. [#96] Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (9-0-0, -238)

Last 3 Fights: Bruno Lopes (2-1-0)
2024-08-13: W vs. [#141LHW] Mikheil Sazhiniani (13-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 2
2024-01-27: W vs. [#237HW+] Marcos Brigagao (17-10-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:58 of round 2
2023-09-05: L vs. [#107LHW] Brendson Ribeiro (16-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:47 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (3-0-0)
2024-06-22: W vs. [#107LHW] Brendson Ribeiro (16-7-0) via MD (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)
2023-10-03: W vs. [#425MW] Jose Medina (11-4-0) via UD ()
2022-10-28: W vs. [#144LHW] Mohamed Said Maalem (14-6-0) via UD ()

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Magomed Gadzhiyasulov	-238		67.35%
Elo K170	Bruno Lopes	1581.49	+9.14	51.31%
Elo Modified	Bruno Lopes	1609.66	+61.89	58.81%
Glicko-1	Bruno Lopes	1664.41	+117.33	66.27%
WHR	Bruno Lopes	1619.20	+157.27	71.20%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bruno Lopes 151, Magomed Gadzhiyasulov 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov leads 1-0
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#29] Victoria Dudakova (8-1-0, +565) vs. [#40] Fatima Kline (6-1-0, -869)

Last 3 Fights: Victoria Dudakova (2-1-0)
2024-08-03: L vs. [#28SW] Sam Hughes (9-6-0) via SD (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-10-21: W vs. [#108SW] Jinh Yu Frey (11-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-07-15: W vs. [*] Istela Nunes (6-5-0) via TKO (Arm Injury) in 0:34 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Fatima Kline (2-1-0)
2024-07-13: L vs. [#17FLY] Jasmine Jasudavicius (12-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-02-09: W vs. [#5AW] Andressa Romero (7-5-1) via UD ()
2023-11-03: W vs. [#268SW] Sara Cova (5-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:56 of round 3

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Fatima Kline	-869		85.63%
Elo K170	Victoria Dudakova	1402.95	+50.03	57.15%
Elo Modified	Victoria Dudakova	1510.15	+52.09	57.44%
Glicko-1	Victoria Dudakova	1502.22	+130.18	67.90%
WHR	Victoria Dudakova	1398.49	+0.40	50.06%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Victoria Dudakova 161, Fatima Kline 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#123] Joe Solecki (13-5-0, +450) vs. [*] Nurullo Aliev (9-0-0, -652)

Last 3 Fights: Joe Solecki (1-2-0)
2024-06-01: L vs. [#21LW] Grant Dawson (22-2-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#52LW] Drakkar Klose (15-3-1) via KO (Slam) in 1:41 of round 1
2023-02-25: W vs. [*] Carl Deaton (17-7-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:55 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Nurullo Aliev (3-0-0)
2023-02-25: W vs. [*] Rafael Alves (21-12-0) via MD (28-28, 29-27, 29-27)
2022-09-20: W vs. [*] Josh Wick (13-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:36 of round 1
2021-09-18: W vs. [*] Kirill Kryukov (10-6-1) via UD ()

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Nurullo Aliev	-652		82.66%
Elo K170	Nurullo Aliev	1710.32	+69.31	59.84%
Elo Modified	Nurullo Aliev	1721.06	+55.37	57.90%
Glicko-1	Joe Solecki	1661.54	+2.49	50.36%
WHR	Nurullo Aliev	1616.67	+29.11	54.18%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joe Solecki 224, Nurullo Aliev 686
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– Implied probability (odds) listed is not the pure mathematical conversion, but the fighters’ share of the combined probability (both added = 100%).

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Chris Curtis
Highest Stored DD Rating: Amanda Ribas
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Amanda Ribas vs. Mackenzie Dern
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Very Low [*½]
Run Date: 2025-1-9