Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley (12-14-2024)

Welterweight (170)
[#5] Colby Covington (17-4-0, +212) vs. [#9] Joaquin Buckley (20-6-0, -264)
Colby Covington is the All-Time #8 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Colby Covington (1-2-0)
2023-12-16: L vs. [#2WW/#10P4P] Leon Edwards (22-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2022-03-05: W vs. [*] Jorge Masvidal (35-17-0) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 49-46)
2021-11-06: L vs. [#3WW] Kamaru Usman (20-4-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Joaquin Buckley (3-0-0)
2024-10-05: W vs. [#19WW] Stephen Thompson (17-8-1) via KO (Punch) in 2:17 of round 3
2024-05-11: W vs. [#80WW] Nursulton Ruziboev (34-9-2) via UD (29-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2024-03-30: W vs. [#18WW] Vicente Luque (23-10-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:17 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Joaquin Buckley	-264		69.35%
Elo K170	Colby Covington	2244.12	+162.96	71.87%
Elo Modified	Colby Covington	2179.50	+135.34	68.55%
Glicko-1	Colby Covington	2244.79	+92.60	63.02%
WHR	Colby Covington	1960.38	+28.86	54.14%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Colby Covington 364, Joaquin Buckley 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#40] Cub Swanson (30-14-0, +132) vs. [#44] Billy Quarantillo (18-6-0, -159)
Cub Swanson is the All-Time #20 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cub Swanson (1-2-0)
2024-06-29: L vs. [#39FW] Andre Fili (24-11-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-08-12: W vs. [*] Hakeem Dawodu (13-4-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-10-15: L vs. [#21BW] Jonathan Martinez (19-6-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 4:19 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Billy Quarantillo (1-2-0)
2024-03-23: L vs. [#25FW] Youssef Zalal (16-5-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:50 of round 2
2023-08-05: W vs. [*] Damon Jackson (23-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-04-15: L vs. [#37FW] Edson Barboza (24-12-0) via KO (Knee) in 2:37 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Billy Quarantillo	-159		58.75%
Elo K170	Cub Swanson	1678.39	+57.33	58.18%
Elo Modified	Cub Swanson	1726.26	+89.49	62.60%
Glicko-1	Cub Swanson	1764.50	+100.94	64.13%
WHR	Cub Swanson	1655.95	+52.07	57.44%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cub Swanson 168, Billy Quarantillo 266
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Flyweight (125)
[#13] Manel Kape (19-7-0, -302) vs. [#21] Bruno Silva (14-6-2, +239)
Manel Kape is the All-Time #34 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Manel Kape (2-1-0)
2024-07-27: L vs. [#7FLY] Muhammad Mokaev (13-0-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#98FLY] Felipe dos Santos (9-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-12-17: W vs. [*] David Dvorak (20-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Bruno Silva (3-0-0)
2024-07-20: W vs. [#38FLY] Cody Durden (17-7-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:58 of round 2
2023-03-11: W vs. [#202BW] Tyson Nam (23-14-1) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:23 of round 2
2021-05-22: W vs. [*] Victor Rodriguez (5-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:00 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Manel Kape	-302		71.80%
Elo K170	Manel Kape	1739.07	+45.52	56.51%
Elo Modified	Manel Kape	1748.75	+64.63	59.20%
Glicko-1	Manel Kape	1810.78	+61.47	58.75%
WHR	Manel Kape	1735.25	+34.18	54.90%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Manel Kape 140, Bruno Silva 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Manel Kape leads 1-0
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#22] Dustin Jacoby (19-9-1, +221) vs. [#30] Vitor Petrino (11-1-0, -278)

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Jacoby (1-2-0)
2024-06-08: L vs. [#9LHW] Dominick Reyes (14-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:00 of round 1
2023-12-16: L vs. [#25LHW] Alonzo Menifield (15-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-08-05: W vs. [#55HW+] Kennedy Nzechukwu (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Vitor Petrino (2-1-0)
2024-05-04: L vs. [#15LHW] Anthony Smith (38-21-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:00 of round 1
2024-03-02: W vs. [*] Tyson Pedro (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-11-04: W vs. [#34LHW] Modestas Bukauskas (16-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:03 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Vitor Petrino	-278		70.24%
Elo K170	Vitor Petrino	1698.34	+92.72	63.04%
Elo Modified	Vitor Petrino	1707.72	+48.16	56.89%
Glicko-1	Vitor Petrino	1736.18	+44.59	56.38%
WHR	Vitor Petrino	1714.78	+25.02	53.59%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dustin Jacoby 189, Vitor Petrino 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#26] Daniel Marcos (16-0-0, -177) vs. [#95] Adrian Yanez (17-5-0, +145)

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Marcos (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2024-06-08: W vs. [#50BW] John Castaneda (21-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-02-10: NC vs. [#229BW] Qileng Aori (27-12-0)
2023-07-22: W vs. [*] Davey Grant (15-7-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Adrian Yanez (1-2-0)
2024-05-18: W vs. [#489BW] Vinicius Salvador (14-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:47 of round 1
2023-10-14: L vs. [#21BW] Jonathan Martinez (19-6-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 2:26 of round 2
2023-04-08: L vs. [#13BW] Rob Font (21-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:57 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Daniel Marcos	-177		61.01%
Elo K170	Daniel Marcos	1857.83	+166.07	72.23%
Elo Modified	Daniel Marcos	1819.04	+149.36	70.26%
Glicko-1	Daniel Marcos	1839.85	+138.35	68.92%
WHR	Daniel Marcos	1790.82	+205.51	76.55%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Daniel Marcos 189, Adrian Yanez 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#102] Navajo Stirling (5-0-0, -578) vs. [#121] George Tokkos (10-4-0, +407)

Last 3 Fights: Navajo Stirling (3-0-0)
2024-09-10: W vs. [#180LHW] Phillip Latu (6-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:21 of round 2
2024-06-14: W vs. [#233LHW] Sam Kei (8-9-0) via NC in 1:48 of round 3
2024-05-04: W vs. [#394LHW] Stuart Dare (9-9-0) via KO (Knee and Punches) in 3:46 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: George Tokkos (2-1-0)
2024-05-18: L vs. [#33LHW] Oumar Sy (11-0-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:43 of round 1
2024-02-23: W vs. [#141LHW] Myron Dennis (20-11-0) via TKO (Arm Injury) in 1:29 of round 1
2023-08-19: W vs. [NA] Brian Jackson (1-10-0) via TKO (Strikes) in 0:40 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Navajo Stirling	-578		81.21%
Elo K170	Navajo Stirling	1403.28	+18.48	52.66%
Elo Modified	Navajo Stirling	1463.53	+41.36	55.93%
Glicko-1	Navajo Stirling	1449.61	+35.99	55.16%
WHR	George Tokkos	1405.64	+46.69	56.68%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Navajo Stirling 95, George Tokkos 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#78] Michael Johnson (22-19-0, -192) vs. [*] Ottman Azaitar (13-2-0, +158)

Last 3 Fights: Michael Johnson (2-1-0)
2024-02-10: W vs. [#293WW] Darrius Flowers (12-8-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-05-20: L vs. [#18LW] Diego Ferreira (19-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:50 of round 2
2022-12-03: W vs. [#74LW] Marc Diakiese (18-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Ottman Azaitar (1-2-0)
2023-07-15: L vs. [#205LW] Francisco Prado (13-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:05 of round 1
2022-11-12: L vs. [#59LW] Matt Frevola (11-5-1) via KO (Punch) in 2:30 of round 1
2020-09-12: W vs. [#349LW] Khama Worthy (20-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:33 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Michael Johnson	-192		62.91%
Elo K170	Michael Johnson	1627.33	+109.01	65.19%
Elo Modified	Michael Johnson	1677.43	+129.88	67.87%
Glicko-1	Michael Johnson	1687.67	+127.82	67.61%
WHR	Michael Johnson	1634.63	+236.27	79.58%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Johnson 308, Ottman Azaitar 518
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#30] Joel Alvarez (21-3-0, -354) vs. [#31] Drakkar Klose (15-2-1, +273)

Last 3 Fights: Joel Alvarez (2-1-0)
2024-08-03: W vs. [#89LW] Elves Brener (16-5-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 3:36 of round 3
2023-07-22: W vs. [#74LW] Marc Diakiese (18-7-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:26 of round 2
2022-02-26: L vs. [#2LW] Arman Tsarukyan (22-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:57 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Drakkar Klose (3-0-0)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#85LW] Joaquim Silva (13-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-12-02: W vs. [#124LW] Joe Solecki (13-5-0) via KO (Slam) in 1:41 of round 1
2022-07-30: W vs. [#81LW] Rafa Garcia (16-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Joel Alvarez	-354		74.41%
Elo K170	Drakkar Klose	1942.12	+70.83	60.05%
Elo Modified	Drakkar Klose	1937.58	+66.46	59.45%
Glicko-1	Joel Alvarez	1965.10	+12.01	51.73%
WHR	Joel Alvarez	1929.13	+87.72	62.36%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joel Alvarez 133, Drakkar Klose 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#26] Sean Woodson (12-1-1, -172) vs. [#86] Fernando Padilla (16-5-0, +141)

Last 3 Fights: Sean Woodson (3-0-0)
2024-05-11: W vs. [#38FW] Alex Caceres (21-15-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-01-20: W vs. [#27BW] Charles Jourdain (16-8-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-08-05: W vs. [#527LW] Dennis Buzukja (12-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Fernando Padilla (2-1-0)
2024-03-23: W vs. [#335FW] Luis Pajuelo (8-2-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:45 of round 1
2023-09-16: L vs. [#43FW] Kyle Nelson (16-6-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-04-29: W vs. [#76FW] Julian Erosa (30-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:41 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Sean Woodson	-172		60.38%
Elo K170	Sean Woodson	1819.33	+226.31	78.63%
Elo Modified	Sean Woodson	1764.22	+164.68	72.07%
Glicko-1	Sean Woodson	1772.20	+114.27	65.88%
WHR	Sean Woodson	1685.64	+22.42	53.22%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean Woodson 217, Fernando Padilla 266
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Fernando Padilla leads 1-0
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Featherweight (145)
[#33] Felipe Lima (13-1-0, -240) vs. [#30BW] Miles Johns (16-2-0, +205)

Last 3 Fights: Felipe Lima (3-0-0)
2024-06-22: W vs. [#54FW] Muhammadjon Naimov (11-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:15 of round 3
2023-07-28: W vs. [#68BW] Jonas Magard (17-6-0) via UD ()
2021-11-20: W vs. [*] Evgeniy Odnorog (20-8-0) via KO (Flying Knee) in 0:00 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Miles Johns (3-0-0)
2024-06-15: W vs. [#54BW] Douglas Silva de Andrade (29-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-03-23: W vs. [#47BW] Cody Gibson (21-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-09-23: W vs. [#196BW] Dan Argueta (9-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Felipe Lima	-240		68.28%
Elo K170	Miles Johns	1857.35	+91.75	62.91%
Elo Modified	Miles Johns	1843.63	+90.53	62.74%
Glicko-1	Miles Johns	1852.56	+60.57	58.63%
WHR	Miles Johns	1786.98	+19.65	52.83%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Felipe Lima 175, Miles Johns 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#15] Miranda Maverick (14-5-0, -388) vs. [#33] Jamey-Lyn Horth (7-1-0, +293)

Last 3 Fights: Miranda Maverick (3-0-0)
2024-07-20: W vs. [#52FLY] Dione Barbosa (7-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#31FLY] Andrea Lee (13-10-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#48BW] Priscila Cachoeira (12-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:11 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Jamey-Lyn Horth (2-1-0)
2024-11-02: W vs. [#47FLY] Ivana Petrovic (7-2-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#34FLY] Veronica Hardy (9-5-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-04-29: W vs. [*] Hailey Cowan (7-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Miranda Maverick	-388		75.75%
Elo K170	Miranda Maverick	1596.17	+151.89	70.57%
Elo Modified	Miranda Maverick	1631.59	+149.33	70.26%
Glicko-1	Miranda Maverick	1646.01	+199.21	75.89%
WHR	Miranda Maverick	1603.62	+176.92	73.46%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Miranda Maverick 147, Jamey-Lyn Horth 42
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[*] Davey Grant (15-7-0, +118) vs. [#172] Ramon Taveras (10-2-0, -143)

Last 3 Fights: Davey Grant (2-1-0)
2023-07-22: L vs. [#26BW] Daniel Marcos (16-0-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-03-11: W vs. [*] Raphael Assuncao (28-10-0) via Technical Submission (Inverted Triangle Choke) in 4:43 of round 3
2022-05-14: W vs. [*] Louis Smolka (17-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Ramon Taveras (2-1-0)
2024-01-20: W vs. [#79BW] Serhiy Sidey (11-2-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-10-10: W vs. [#299BW] Cortavious Romious (9-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:29 of round 1
2023-09-05: L vs. [#79BW] Serhiy Sidey (11-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:26 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Ramon Taveras	-143		56.19%
Elo K170	Davey Grant	1623.45	+125.25	67.28%
Elo Modified	Davey Grant	1694.78	+194.33	75.38%
Glicko-1	Davey Grant	1770.63	+302.12	85.06%
WHR	Davey Grant	1733.26	+341.51	87.72%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Davey Grant 511, Ramon Taveras 329
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#16] Josefine Lindgren Knutsson (8-0-0, -239) vs. [#53] Piera Rodriguez (9-2-0, +192)

Last 3 Fights: Josefine Lindgren Knutsson (3-0-0)
2024-06-15: W vs. [#35SW] Julia Polastri (13-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-09-16: W vs. [#131SW] Marnic Mann (6-3-0) via UD (30-24, 30-25, 30-27)
2023-08-22: W vs. [*] Isis Verbeek (5-2-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Piera Rodriguez (1-2-0)
2024-05-18: L vs. [#39SW] Ariane Carnelossi (15-3-0) via Disqualification (Headbutts) in 3:16 of round 2
2023-04-15: L vs. [#10SW] Gillian Robertson (15-8-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:21 of round 2
2022-10-15: W vs. [#28SW] Sam Hughes (9-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Josefine Lindgren Knutsson	-239		67.30%
Elo K170	Josefine Lindgren Knutsson	1630.13	+259.43	81.66%
Elo Modified	Josefine Lindgren Knutsson	1660.88	+146.66	69.94%
Glicko-1	Josefine Lindgren Knutsson	1582.78	+108.29	65.10%
WHR	Josefine Lindgren Knutsson	1478.41	+75.98	60.76%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josefine Lindgren Knutsson 182, Piera Rodriguez 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– Implied probability (odds) listed is not the pure mathematical conversion, but the fighters’ share of the combined probability (both added = 100%).
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Colby Covington
Highest Stored DD Rating: Colby Covington
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Fair [**½]
Run Date: 2024-12-8