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Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka (06-22-2024)

Posted on June 24, 2024 by Jason

Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#1/#4P4P] Alex Pereira (10-2-0, -166) vs. [#4] Jiri Prochazka (30-4-1, +138)
Alex Pereira is the All-Time #20 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Jiri Prochazka is the All-Time #25 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alex Pereira (3-0-0)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#5LHW] Jamahal Hill (13-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:14 of round 1
2023-11-11: W vs. [#4LHW] Jiri Prochazka (30-4-1) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:08 of round 2
2023-07-29: W vs. [#2LHW] Jan Blachowicz (29-10-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jiri Prochazka (2-1-0)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#27LHW] Aleksandar Rakic (14-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:17 of round 2
2023-11-11: L vs. [#1LHW/#4P4P] Alex Pereira (10-2-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:08 of round 2
2022-06-11: W vs. [*] Glover Teixeira (33-9-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:32 of round 5

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alex Pereira -166 59.76%
Elo K170 Alex Pereira 2222.62 +94.56 63.28%
Elo Modified Alex Pereira 2187.33 +76.81 60.88%
Glicko-1 Alex Pereira 2300.85 +78.25 61.08%
WHR Alex Pereira 2122.78 +64.07 59.12%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex Pereira 77, Jiri Prochazka 77
Previous Match-up Record: Alex Pereira leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#4] Brian Ortega (16-3-0, +120) vs. [#24] Diego Lopes (24-6-0, -145)
Brian Ortega is the All-Time #11 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Brian Ortega (1-2-0)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#5FW] Yair Rodriguez (19-5-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 0:58 of round 3
2022-07-16: L vs. [#5FW] Yair Rodriguez (19-5-0) via TKO (Shoulder Injury) in 4:11 of round 1
2021-09-25: L vs. [#2FW/#8DD] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Diego Lopes (3-0-0)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#49FW] Sodiq Yusuff (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:29 of round 1
2023-11-11: W vs. [#77FW] Pat Sabatini (18-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 1
2023-08-05: W vs. [#330FW] Gavin Tucker (13-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:38 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Diego Lopes -145 56.56%
Elo K170 Brian Ortega 2102.06 +255.21 81.29%
Elo Modified Brian Ortega 2058.70 +186.82 74.56%
Glicko-1 Brian Ortega 2118.28 +161.12 71.66%
WHR Brian Ortega 1971.85 +131.61 68.08%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brian Ortega 126, Diego Lopes 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#16MW] Roman Dolidze (12-3-0, -145) vs. [#14] Anthony Smith (38-19-0, +119)
Anthony Smith is the All-Time #31 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Roman Dolidze (1-2-0)
2024-02-03: L vs. [#6MW] Nassourdine Imavov (14-4-0) via MD (49-44, 47-47, 48-46)
2023-03-18: L vs. [#9MW] Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#15MW] Jack Hermansson (24-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:06 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Smith (2-1-0)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#34LHW] Vitor Petrino (11-1-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:00 of round 1
2023-12-09: L vs. [#9LHW] Khalil Rountree (13-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:56 of round 3
2023-08-26: W vs. [#24LHW] Ryan Spann (21-10-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Roman Dolidze -145 56.44%
Elo K170 Anthony Smith 1874.62 +131.98 68.13%
Elo Modified Anthony Smith 1858.13 +73.92 60.48%
Glicko-1 Anthony Smith 1898.48 +21.83 53.14%
WHR Roman Dolidze 1792.14 +37.10 55.32%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roman Dolidze 147, Anthony Smith 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#7] Macy Chiasson (9-3-0, +146) vs. [#9] Mayra Bueno Silva (10-3-1, -176)

Last 3 Fights: Macy Chiasson (2-1-0)
2024-03-16: W vs. [#14BW] Pannie Kianzad (16-8-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:54 of round 1
2022-09-10: L vs. [#3BW] Irene Aldana (15-7-0) via KO (Upkick to the Body) in 2:21 of round 3
2022-05-07: W vs. [#5BW] Norma Dumont (11-2-0) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 28-29)

Last 3 Fights: Mayra Bueno Silva (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2024-01-20: L vs. [#2BW/#8P4P] Raquel Pennington (16-8-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)
2023-07-15: NC vs. [#6BW] Holly Holm (15-7-0)
2023-02-18: W vs. [*] Lina Lansberg (10-8-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 4:45 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mayra Bueno Silva -176 61.07%
Elo K170 Macy Chiasson 1593.24 +83.36 61.77%
Elo Modified Macy Chiasson 1607.21 +77.02 60.91%
Glicko-1 Macy Chiasson 1544.22 +2.63 50.38%
WHR Macy Chiasson 1545.04 +59.77 58.52%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Macy Chiasson 105, Mayra Bueno Silva 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Mayra Bueno Silva leads 1-0
.

Welterweight (170)
[#9] Ian Garry (14-0-0, -130) vs. [#13] Michael Page (22-2-0, +107)

Last 3 Fights: Ian Garry (3-0-0)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#16WW] Geoff Neal (15-6-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#20WW] Neil Magny (29-11-0) via UD (30-26, 30-24, 30-26)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#39WW] Daniel Rodriguez (17-5-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 2:57 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michael Page (2-1-0)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#17MW] Kevin Holland (26-11-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-03-10: W vs. [#42WW] Goiti Yamauchi (29-6-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 0:26 of round 1
2022-05-13: L vs. [#33WW] Logan Storley (15-3-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 49-46)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ian Garry -130 53.91%
Elo K170 Ian Garry 2064.83 +5.88 50.85%
Elo Modified Michael Page 2058.44 +71.22 60.11%
Glicko-1 Michael Page 2138.30 +132.15 68.15%
WHR Michael Page 1972.33 +53.21 57.60%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ian Garry 133, Michael Page 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#28] Joe Pyfer (12-3-0, -268) vs. [#39] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-7-0, +214)

Last 3 Fights: Joe Pyfer (2-1-0)
2024-02-10: L vs. [#15MW] Jack Hermansson (24-8-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#82MW] Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-6-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:05 of round 2
2023-04-08: W vs. [#33MW] Gerald Meerschaert (36-17-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Marc-Andre Barriault (2-1-0)
2024-01-20: L vs. [#21MW] Chris Curtis (31-11-0) via SD (28-29, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-06-10: W vs. [#59MW] Eryk Anders (16-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-03-04: W vs. [#210MW] Julian Marquez (9-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:12 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joe Pyfer -268 69.57%
Elo K170 Marc-Andre Barriault 1659.31 +25.01 53.59%
Elo Modified Marc-Andre Barriault 1748.95 +91.30 62.85%
Glicko-1 Marc-Andre Barriault 1827.17 +82.04 61.59%
WHR Joe Pyfer 1684.96 +3.93 50.56%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joe Pyfer 140, Marc-Andre Barriault 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#33] Cub Swanson (29-13-0, +162) vs. [#58] Andre Fili (23-11-0, -197)
Cub Swanson is the All-Time #20 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cub Swanson (2-1-0)
2023-08-12: W vs. [#74FW] Hakeem Dawodu (13-4-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-10-15: L vs. [#16BW] Jonathan Martinez (19-5-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 4:19 of round 2
2021-12-18: W vs. [#62FW] Darren Elkins (28-11-0) via TKO (Spinning Wheel Kick and Punches) in 2:12 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Andre Fili (1-2-0)
2024-02-10: L vs. [#16FW] Dan Ige (18-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:43 of round 1
2023-12-16: W vs. [#135FW] Lucas Almeida (15-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:32 of round 1
2023-07-22: L vs. [#54FW] Nathaniel Wood (19-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Andre Fili -197 63.47%
Elo K170 Cub Swanson 1793.97 +131.41 68.06%
Elo Modified Cub Swanson 1785.02 +158.50 71.35%
Glicko-1 Cub Swanson 1805.37 +161.04 71.65%
WHR Cub Swanson 1703.18 +114.07 65.85%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cub Swanson 322, Andre Fili 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#47] Charles Jourdain (15-7-1, -124) vs. [#122] Jean Silva (12-2-0, +103)

Last 3 Fights: Charles Jourdain (2-1-0)
2024-01-20: L vs. [#25FW] Sean Woodson (12-1-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-09-23: W vs. [#177FW] Ricardo Ramos (16-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:12 of round 1
2023-05-06: W vs. [#393FW] Kron Gracie (5-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Jean Silva (3-0-0)
2024-01-13: W vs. [#156FW] Westin Wilson (17-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:12 of round 1
2023-09-05: W vs. [#252FW] Kevin Vallejos (13-1-0) via UD ()
2023-03-25: W vs. [#751FW] Shahin Najafi (11-11-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 2:15 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Charles Jourdain -124 52.91%
Elo K170 Jean Silva 1631.00 +24.65 53.54%
Elo Modified Charles Jourdain 1701.06 +37.15 55.33%
Glicko-1 Charles Jourdain 1752.98 +43.26 56.19%
WHR Jean Silva 1705.24 +38.57 55.53%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Jourdain 161, Jean Silva 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#121] Payton Talbott (8-0-0, -1635) vs. [#313FW] Yanis Ghemmouri (12-2-0, +853)

Last 3 Fights: Payton Talbott (3-0-0)
2024-03-23: W vs. [#257BW] Cameron Saaiman (9-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:21 of round 2
2023-11-18: W vs. [#909BW] Nick Aguirre (7-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 0:58 of round 3
2023-08-08: W vs. [#653BW] Reyes Cortez Jr. (7-3-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Yanis Ghemmouri (2-1-0)
2023-09-02: L vs. [#95FW] William Gomis (13-2-0) via TKO (Body Kick) in 2:20 of round 3
2023-06-23: W vs. [#571BW] Mehmosh Raza (11-6-0) via KO (Knee) in 1:05 of round 2
2022-12-12: W vs. [#335BW] Bair Shtepin (11-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:44 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Payton Talbott -1635 89.98%
Elo K170 Payton Talbott 1584.92 +86.46 62.19%
Elo Modified Payton Talbott 1642.77 +204.31 76.42%
Glicko-1 Payton Talbott 1631.63 +189.10 74.81%
WHR Payton Talbott 1594.35 +126.97 67.50%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Payton Talbott 98, Yanis Ghemmouri 301
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#14] Gillian Robertson (13-8-0, -200) vs. [#70] Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-12-0, +164)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez is the All-Time #50 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Gillian Robertson (2-1-0)
2024-01-20: W vs. [#71SW] Polyana Viana (13-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:12 of round 2
2023-06-24: L vs. [#12SW] Tabatha Ricci (10-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-04-15: W vs. [#55SW] Piera Rodriguez (9-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:21 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Michelle Waterson-Gomez (0-3-0)
2023-09-23: L vs. [#7SW] Marina Rodriguez (17-4-2) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 2:42 of round 2
2023-04-08: L vs. [#36SW] Luana Pinheiro (11-3-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-07-16: L vs. [#4SW/#9DD] Amanda Lemos (14-3-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:48 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Gillian Robertson -200 63.76%
Elo K170 Gillian Robertson 1508.31 +169.36 72.61%
Elo Modified Gillian Robertson 1532.35 +151.36 70.50%
Glicko-1 Gillian Robertson 1564.45 +194.43 75.39%
WHR Gillian Robertson 1503.33 +166.14 72.24%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gillian Robertson 161, Michelle Waterson-Gomez 280
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#72] Martin Buday (13-2-0, -280) vs. [#75] Andrei Arlovski (34-23-0, +222)
Andrei Arlovski is the All-Time #18 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Martin Buday (2-1-0)
2023-12-16: L vs. [#34HW+] Shamil Gaziev (12-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:56 of round 2
2023-08-12: W vs. [#239HW+] Josh Parisian (15-8-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 4:11 of round 1
2023-04-29: W vs. [#105HW+] Jake Collier (13-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Andrei Arlovski (0-3-0)
2024-01-13: L vs. [#47HW+] Waldo Cortes-Acosta (12-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-03: L vs. [#54HW+] Dontale Mayes (11-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:17 of round 2
2022-10-29: L vs. [#23HW+] Marcos Rogerio de Lima (22-9-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:50 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Martin Buday -280 70.34%
Elo K170 Martin Buday 1592.59 +135.49 68.57%
Elo Modified Martin Buday 1583.91 +102.54 64.34%
Glicko-1 Martin Buday 1603.01 +154.41 70.87%
WHR Martin Buday 1526.29 +92.89 63.06%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Martin Buday 196, Andrei Arlovski 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#28] Rei Tsuruya (9-0-0, -425) vs. [#152] Carlos Hernandez (9-3-0, +318)

Last 3 Fights: Rei Tsuruya (3-0-0)
2024-02-03: W vs. [#147FLY] Niushiyue Ji (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 1
2023-08-27: W vs. [#137FLY] Mark Climaco (10-2-0) via UD ()
2023-05-27: W vs. [#354FLY] Ronal Siahaan (8-2-0) via Submission (Scarf Hold Armlock) in 1:19 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Hernandez (1-2-0)
2023-12-09: L vs. [#8FLY] Tatsuro Taira (16-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:55 of round 2
2023-06-17: W vs. [#404FLY] Denys Bondar (19-5-0) via TUD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-01-14: L vs. [*] Allan Nascimento (20-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:16 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Rei Tsuruya -425 77.19%
Elo K170 Rei Tsuruya 1730.09 +208.52 76.86%
Elo Modified Rei Tsuruya 1738.78 +241.40 80.05%
Glicko-1 Rei Tsuruya 1738.21 +287.80 83.98%
WHR Rei Tsuruya 1601.81 +199.10 75.88%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rei Tsuruya 147, Carlos Hernandez 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#35] Ricky Simon (21-5-0, -223) vs. [#52] Vinicius Oliveira (21-3-0, +181)

Last 3 Fights: Ricky Simon (1-2-0)
2024-01-13: L vs. [#24BW] Mario Bautista (14-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-04-29: L vs. [#11BW] Yadong Song (21-9-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 5
2022-07-16: W vs. [#68FW] Jack Shore (17-2-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:28 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Vinicius Oliveira (3-0-0)
2024-03-02: W vs. [#222BW] Bernardo Sopai (11-3-0) via KO (Flying Knee) in 4:41 of round 3
2023-09-26: W vs. [#123BW] Victor Madrigal (15-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:02 of round 1
2023-03-18: W vs. [#500BW] Hikaru Yoshino (12-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:02 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ricky Simon -223 65.98%
Elo K170 Ricky Simon 1782.78 +36.20 55.19%
Elo Modified Ricky Simon 1768.75 +6.98 51.00%
Glicko-1 Vinicius Oliveira 1811.44 +21.56 53.10%
WHR Vinicius Oliveira 1737.61 +46.20 56.61%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ricky Simon 168, Vinicius Oliveira 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– Implied probability (odds) listed is not the pure mathematical conversion, but the fighters’ share of the combined probability (both added = 100%).
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Alex Pereira
Highest Stored DD Rating: Alex Pereira
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Moderate [***]
Run Date: 2024-6-23

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