We’ve now gotten through the top two thirds of the men’s weight divisions, and established that the UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev stands the best chance of dethroning the all-time divisional #1, who just happens to be his mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov. Let us now take a look at the lightest men’s weight classes, and see if my assertion holds true.
[#1]: Dominick Cruz (8198)
Next active fighter: [#7] Henry Cejudo (3693)
Point differential: 2.21x
Other contenders: [#10] Petr Yan, [#11] Cody Garbrandt, [#12] Sean OMalley
Similar to men’s lightweight, there is not as much separation between #1 and the rest at bantamweight. Dominic Cruz’s reign at the top was brief, and though he is not officially retired, these days he fights very infrequently and isn’t likely to rise any further. Fortunately for Cruz, there just currently isn’t a serious contender to knock him out of the top spot. Aljamain Sterling was oh-so-close but moved up in weight. [#4] Renan Barao, who once so long ago looked like an unstoppable champion, recently made his return to MMA action, to atrocious results and is presently on a six-fight skid. Former champion Henry Cejudo would have likely been ranked much higher on these lists, had he not taken a three year layoff in the prime of his career. Now, he stands with back-to-back losses and not a very clear path forward.
Another former champion, Petr Yan, was once lauded as the future of the division, but faltered badly in his last few outings and is now fighting for his UFC career. Yet another brief title holder Cody Garbrandt is a glass cannon who is not likely to catch lightning in a bottle like he did on the night he took the belt from Cruz. Finally, amongst all these past champs, we have the current top dog Sean O’Malley. In a less competitive division we could imagine Sean with a long reign at the top; however he is already talking about moving up to featherweight for a chance at the ‘champ champ’ status. He also has contenders like Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov breathing down his neck.
[#1]: Demetrious Johnson (13633)
Next active fighter: [#3] Brandon Moreno (3331)
Point differential: 4.09x
Other contenders: [#8] Jussier Formiga, [#9] Alexandre Pantoja
Although he only sits at #9 in the All-Time Absolute Ranking, Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson (or just ‘DJ’) is significantly further ahead of the pack than any other men’s all-time division. Perhaps the relative weakness of the flyweight category allowed Johnson to get so far ahead of his contemporaries, while at the same time holding him back on the pound-for-pound or ‘absolute’ level. At 4x the point total of the third-ranked Brandon Moreno, there is no way anyone on this list – hell, any one at all – is catching up to DJ in the next decade.
Moreno has been trading the UFC flyweight title back and forth with [#2]Deiveson Figueiredo (the latter having now moved up to bantamweight). On the losing end of two split decisions to Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval, Moreno needs to take it easy on rematches and face some fresh blood, which the division is sorely lacking.
Jussier Formiga hasn’t fought in two years, and has looked kind of washed up towards the end of his UFC run, so he is barely a side note here. Finally, we have the current defending UFC flyweight champion Pantoja, who is riding a streak of five consecutive victories. Pantoja in his current form looks to be a level above his competition, and should climb a few spots in the all-time ranking if he can keep his winning ways. It’s a long, lonely road to the top, made more difficult by the travelers’ knowledge that they are not likely to ever reach the summit – as is the case here.
[#1]: Rambaa Somdet (792)
Next active fighter: [#3] Yosuke Saruta (313)
Point differential: 2.53x
Other contenders: [#6] Junji Ito, [#8] Billy Pasulatan, [#9] Jo Arai, [#10] Haruo Ochi
I don’t have a whole lot to say about the men’s strawweight division. The point separation between Rambaa Somdet and the rest of the division is not huge, but there just aren’t any good candidates to push Rambaa out of the top spot. [#2] Yoshitaka Naito is retired, Yosuke Saruta has not won a fight since 2020, and then we have a bunch of fighters who are struggling to string wins together. Besides, the division is incredibly shallow. When your current top rank Sanjar Zakirov is a 20-year-old with an 11-0 record, who has not fought a single opponent ranked at flyweight, and basically fights rank amateurs… things aren’t looking up for the division.
So there you have it folks. The most likely all-time ranking lists to have a new #1 in the next decade, in my opinion, are the men’s absolute and women’s open-weight. Men’s strawweight and bantamweight divisions have the least amount of separation between #1 and the rest of the pack, but strawweight suffers from extreme shallowness, and bantamweight from extreme competitiveness. This leaves us with men’s lightweight as the one all-time ranking list which is more likely to have a replacement for the currently top ranked Khabib. This largely depends on whether Makhachev is willing and able to succesfully defend his title for another few years, or if Dustin Porrier or Charles Oliveira can dethrone Islam and rack up a few defenses of their own.
There is an interesting correlation between the men’s all-time absolute list and the divisional lists: The Top 5 on the absolute ranking have all dominated their respective weight class for close to a decade, and have a near insurmountable lead over the divisional all-time rankings. Will we see another Fedor, Anderson, GSP, Jones, or Aldo in the current crop of up-and-comers? [#5 WW] Shavkat Rakhmonov may be the next big thing once he finally gets his title shot at welterweight. At 18-0 with all finishes, Rakhmonov has methodically dismantled his six UFC opponents to date, looking like an unstoppable force.
That is a bold prediction, but what is evident is that most of the top-ranked MMA fighters of all time are from more or less the same era. Were those the best years of the sport, never to be repeated? Or are fighters of today better than ever, and the top ranks of the past would not have enjoyed such immense success today?