Fight Matrix Program – UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria (02-16-2024)

Feb 12, 2024
Jason

Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#2DD/#5P4P] Alexander Volkanovski (26-3-0, -115) vs. [#4] Ilia Topuria (14-0-0, -106)
Alexander Volkanovski is the All-Time #2 ranked Featherweight and #7 ranked Absolute fighter.
Ilia Topuria is the All-Time #45 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkanovski (1-2-0)
2023-10-21: L vs. [#1LW/#1DD/#1P4P] Islam Makhachev (25-1-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:06 of round 1
2023-07-08: W vs. [#3FW] Yair Rodriguez (19-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:19 of round 3
2023-02-11: L vs. [#1LW/#1DD/#1P4P] Islam Makhachev (25-1-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Ilia Topuria (3-0-0)
2023-06-24: W vs. [#6FW] Josh Emmett (19-4-0) via UD (49-45, 50-44, 50-42)
2022-12-10: W vs. [#14FW] Bryce Mitchell (16-2-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:10 of round 2
2022-03-19: W vs. [#128LW] Jai Herbert (12-5-1) via KO (Punches) in 1:07 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexander Volkanovski -115 50.96%
Elo K170 Alexander Volkanovski 2321.36 +256.15 76.32%
Elo Modified Alexander Volkanovski 2262.80 +222.64 72.61%
Glicko-1 Alexander Volkanovski 2350.37 +251.14 80.93%
WHR Alexander Volkanovski 2221.72 +172.17 68.71%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkanovski 119, Ilia Topuria 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#7] Robert Whittaker (24-7-0, -217) vs. [*] Paulo Costa (14-2-0, +174)
Robert Whittaker is the All-Time #5 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Paulo Costa is the All-Time #26 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Robert Whittaker (1-2-0)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#2MW/#10DD] Dricus Du Plessis (21-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:23 of round 2
2022-09-03: W vs. [#8MW] Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) via UD ()
2022-02-12: L vs. [#1MW/#8DD] Israel Adesanya (24-3-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Paulo Costa (1-2-0)
2022-08-20: W vs. [*] Luke Rockhold (16-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-10-23: L vs. [#8MW] Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) via UD (48-46, 48-46, 48-46)
2020-09-26: L vs. [#1MW/#8DD] Israel Adesanya (24-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:59 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Robert Whittaker -217 65.22%
Elo K170 Robert Whittaker 2141.38 +140.79 65.55%
Elo Modified Robert Whittaker 2118.40 +114.65 62.29%
Glicko-1 Robert Whittaker 2177.03 +93.48 63.14%
WHR Robert Whittaker 1951.77 +57.07 56.48%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robert Whittaker 224, Paulo Costa 546
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Robert Whittaker leads 4-2
.

Welterweight (170)
[#11] Ian Garry (13-0-0, -231) vs. [#13] Geoff Neal (15-5-0, +184)

Last 3 Fights: Ian Garry (3-0-0)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#17WW] Neil Magny (29-11-0) via UD (30-26, 30-24, 30-26)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#38WW] Daniel Rodriguez (17-4-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 2:57 of round 1
2023-03-04: W vs. [#166WW] Kenan Song (20-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:22 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Geoff Neal (2-1-0)
2023-03-04: L vs. [#5WW] Shavkat Rakhmonov (18-0-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:17 of round 3
2022-08-06: W vs. [#9WW] Vicente Luque (22-9-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:01 of round 3
2021-12-11: W vs. [#32WW] Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-7-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ian Garry -231 66.46%
Elo K170 Geoff Neal 1980.69 +1.27 50.15%
Elo Modified Ian Garry 1970.17 +39.99 54.37%
Glicko-1 Ian Garry 2004.00 +34.99 55.02%
WHR Ian Garry 1918.30 +74.75 58.46%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ian Garry 182, Geoff Neal 350
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ian Garry leads 1-0
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#2] Merab Dvalishvili (16-4-0, -188) vs. [#6] Henry Cejudo (16-3-0, +154)
Merab Dvalishvili is the All-Time #27 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Henry Cejudo is the All-Time #7 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Merab Dvalishvili (3-0-0)
2023-03-11: W vs. [#8BW] Petr Yan (16-5-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2022-08-20: W vs. [*] Jose Aldo (31-8-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-09-25: W vs. [*] Marlon Moraes (23-13-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:25 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Henry Cejudo (2-1-0)
2023-05-06: L vs. [#3BW] Aljamain Sterling (23-4-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2020-05-09: W vs. [*] Dominick Cruz (24-4-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 4:58 of round 2
2019-06-08: W vs. [*] Marlon Moraes (23-13-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:51 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Merab Dvalishvili -188 62.37%
Elo K170 Henry Cejudo 2212.56 +44.37 55.05%
Elo Modified Henry Cejudo 2175.04 +18.04 51.97%
Glicko-1 Henry Cejudo 2277.40 +52.07 57.44%
WHR Merab Dvalishvili 2062.19 +51.03 55.80%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Merab Dvalishvili 343, Henry Cejudo 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#31] Anthony Hernandez (11-2-0, -196) vs. [#51] Roman Kopylov (12-2-0, +159)

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Hernandez (3-0-0)
2023-05-20: W vs. [#65MW] Edmen Shahbazyan (12-4-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:01 of round 3
2022-09-17: W vs. [#39MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-7-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 1:53 of round 3
2022-04-09: W vs. [#128MW] Josh Fremd (11-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Roman Kopylov (3-0-0)
2023-09-16: W vs. [#128MW] Josh Fremd (11-5-0) via KO (Punch to the Body) in 4:44 of round 2
2023-07-29: W vs. [#157MW] Claudio Ribeiro (11-4-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:33 of round 2
2023-01-14: W vs. [#118MW] Punahele Soriano (9-4-0) via TKO (Body Kick and Punches) in 3:19 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Anthony Hernandez -196 63.16%
Elo K170 Anthony Hernandez 1799.93 +26.16 52.99%
Elo Modified Anthony Hernandez 1829.82 +14.28 51.56%
Glicko-1 Roman Kopylov 1890.78 +26.64 53.83%
WHR Anthony Hernandez 1833.08 +61.90 57.02%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anthony Hernandez 273, Roman Kopylov 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#4] Amanda Lemos (13-3-1, -131) vs. [#9] Mackenzie Dern (13-4-0, +108)

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Lemos (2-1-0)
2023-08-19: L vs. [#1SW/#1DD/#1P4P] Weili Zhang (24-3-0) via UD (50-43, 50-44, 49-45)
2022-11-05: W vs. [#8SW] Marina Rodriguez (17-3-2) via TKO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 3
2022-07-16: W vs. [#53SW] Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-12-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:48 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Mackenzie Dern (1-2-0)
2023-11-11: L vs. [#5SW] Jessica Andrade (25-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 2
2023-05-20: W vs. [#10SW] Angela Hill (16-13-0) via UD (49-44, 49-44, 49-43)
2022-10-01: L vs. [#2SW/#9DD] Xiaonan Yan (18-3-0) via MD (48-47, 48-47, 47-47)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Amanda Lemos -131 54.11%
Elo K170 Amanda Lemos 1756.66 +185.68 70.02%
Elo Modified Amanda Lemos 1728.55 +131.81 64.04%
Glicko-1 Amanda Lemos 1745.61 +168.76 72.54%
WHR Amanda Lemos 1614.49 +39.20 54.47%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Amanda Lemos 182, Mackenzie Dern 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Amanda Lemos leads 2-1
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#24] Marcos Rogerio de Lima (21-9-1, -146) vs. [#58] Justin Tafa (7-3-0, +120)

Last 3 Fights: Marcos Rogerio de Lima (2-1-0)
2023-07-29: L vs. [#13HW+] Derrick Lewis (27-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 1
2023-04-29: W vs. [#47HW+] Waldo Cortes-Acosta (11-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-10-29: W vs. [#70HW+] Andrei Arlovski (34-23-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:50 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Justin Tafa (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#126HW+] Austen Lane (12-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 1
2023-06-24: NC vs. [#126HW+] Austen Lane (12-4-0)
2023-02-11: W vs. [#124HW+] Parker Porter (13-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Marcos Rogerio de Lima -146 56.63%
Elo K170 Marcos Rogerio de Lima 1703.43 +187.71 70.21%
Elo Modified Marcos Rogerio de Lima 1738.73 +166.32 67.44%
Glicko-1 Marcos Rogerio de Lima 1748.41 +124.63 67.20%
WHR Marcos Rogerio de Lima 1623.07 +104.22 61.68%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marcos Rogerio de Lima 203, Justin Tafa 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#68] Rinya Nakamura (8-0-0, -920) vs. [#159] Carlos Vera (11-3-0, +565)

Last 3 Fights: Rinya Nakamura (3-0-0)
2023-08-26: W vs. [#807FW] Fernie Garcia (10-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-02-04: W vs. [#291BW] Toshiomi Kazama (10-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:33 of round 1
2022-10-23: W vs. [#211BW] Shohei Nose (11-4-2) via KO (Punches) in 2:21 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Vera (3-0-0)
2022-09-23: W vs. [*] Isaiah Gutierrez (8-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:41 of round 1
2022-04-24: W vs. [#342BW] Kale Moniz (7-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:18 of round 3
2021-12-19: W vs. [#225BW] Peter Caballero (14-6-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Rinya Nakamura -920 85.70%
Elo K170 Rinya Nakamura 1643.71 +147.88 66.28%
Elo Modified Rinya Nakamura 1681.04 +162.56 67.07%
Glicko-1 Rinya Nakamura 1697.38 +187.44 74.63%
WHR Rinya Nakamura 1611.36 +118.69 63.23%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rinya Nakamura 175, Carlos Vera 512
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#90] Brendson Ribeiro (15-5-0, +121) vs. [*] Mingyang Zhang (16-6-0, -147)

Last 3 Fights: Brendson Ribeiro (3-0-0)
2023-09-05: W vs. [#111LHW] Bruno Lopes (12-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:47 of round 1
2022-12-16: W vs. [#146LHW] Joao Paulo Fagundes (9-2-0) via TKO in 4:35 of round 1
2022-09-03: W vs. [#421HW+] Gilmar Dutra Lima (29-19-1) via TKO in 0:52 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Mingyang Zhang (3-0-0)
2022-06-09: W vs. [#133LHW] George Tokkos (9-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:57 of round 1
2021-04-30: W vs. [NA] Changsheng Huo (2-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:31 of round 1
2021-01-14: W vs. [NA] Caibao Zhang (4-11-0) via KO in 2:12 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mingyang Zhang -147 56.80%
Elo K170 Brendson Ribeiro 1524.17 +35.37 54.03%
Elo Modified Brendson Ribeiro 1556.47 +84.74 59.17%
Glicko-1 Brendson Ribeiro 1603.71 +49.92 57.14%
WHR Brendson Ribeiro 1565.45 +138.52 65.31%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brendson Ribeiro 165, Mingyang Zhang 618
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#233] Josh Quinlan (6-1-0, +157) vs. [#269] Danny Barlow (7-0-0, -193)

Last 3 Fights: Josh Quinlan (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2023-04-29: L vs. [#164WW] Trey Waters (8-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-08-13: W vs. [*] Jason Witt (19-10-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:09 of round 1
2021-09-07: NC vs. [#854WW] Logan Urban (6-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Danny Barlow (3-0-0)
2023-09-26: W vs. [#524WW] Raheam Forest (7-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:19 of round 1
2023-07-14: W vs. [NA] Jarious Gill (2-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:57 of round 1
2023-03-18: W vs. [#875WW] Trevor Ollison (5-6-0) via TKO in 4:13 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Danny Barlow -193 62.86%
Elo K170 Danny Barlow 1425.29 +76.12 58.61%
Elo Modified Danny Barlow 1447.97 +32.15 53.51%
Glicko-1 Danny Barlow 1440.61 +33.30 54.78%
WHR Danny Barlow 1347.59 +17.86 52.04%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josh Quinlan 294, Danny Barlow 144
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#92] Oban Elliott (9-2-0, -288) vs. [#396MW] Valentine Woodburn (7-1-0, +225)

Last 3 Fights: Oban Elliott (3-0-0)
2023-08-22: W vs. [#99WW] Kaik Brito (17-5-0) via MD ()
2023-04-29: W vs. [#230WW] James Sheehan (7-3-0) via UD ()
2022-11-04: W vs. [#1146MW] Sean Mccormac (3-2-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Valentine Woodburn (2-1-0)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#123MW] Bo Nickal (5-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:38 of round 1
2022-08-20: W vs. [*] Luis Sergio Teotonio da F (30-17-3) via UD ()
2022-03-19: W vs. [NA] Wesley Almeida (16-12-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Oban Elliott -288 70.69%
Elo K170 Oban Elliott 1601.35 +276.06 77.92%
Elo Modified Oban Elliott 1584.66 +181.70 68.90%
Glicko-1 Oban Elliott 1569.44 +210.16 77.02%
WHR Oban Elliott 1493.12 +229.53 74.05%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Oban Elliott 179, Valentine Woodburn 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#16] Miranda Maverick (12-5-0, -203) vs. [#17] Andrea Lee (13-8-0, +164)

Last 3 Fights: Miranda Maverick (2-1-0)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#34BW] Priscila Cachoeira (12-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:11 of round 3
2023-06-10: L vs. [#10BW] Jasmine Jasudavicius (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-11-05: W vs. [#53FLY] Shanna Young (9-5-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Andrea Lee (0-3-0)
2023-08-19: L vs. [#8FLY] Natalia Silva (17-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-03-25: L vs. [#6FLY] Maycee Barber (13-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2022-05-14: L vs. [#11FLY] Viviane Araujo (12-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 29-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Miranda Maverick -203 63.88%
Elo K170 Miranda Maverick 1489.36 +117.56 63.11%
Elo Modified Miranda Maverick 1535.39 +83.65 59.05%
Glicko-1 Miranda Maverick 1556.10 +72.06 60.22%
WHR Miranda Maverick 1532.17 +70.59 57.99%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Miranda Maverick 203, Andrea Lee 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Alexander Volkanovski
Highest Stored DD Rating: Alexander Volkanovski
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Very Good [***½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Large [***½]
Run Date: 2024-2-11

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