Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker (01-13-2024)

Jan 8, 2024
Jason

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#6] Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1, -504) vs. [#10] Johnny Walker (21-7-0, +359)
Magomed Ankalaev is the All-Time #41 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Magomed Ankalaev (1-0-1, 1 NC)
2023-10-21: NC vs. [#10LHW] Johnny Walker (21-7-0)
2022-12-10: D vs. [#2LHW] Jan Blachowicz (29-10-1) via Draw (Split) in 5:00 of round 5
2022-07-30: W vs. [#15LHW] Anthony Smith (37-19-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:09 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Johnny Walker (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2023-10-21: NC vs. [#6LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#15LHW] Anthony Smith (37-19-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-01-21: W vs. [#16MW] Paul Craig (17-7-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:16 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Magomed Ankalaev -504 79.29%
Elo K170 Magomed Ankalaev 2160.24 +228.44 73.95%
Elo Modified Magomed Ankalaev 2151.48 +219.07 72.29%
Glicko-1 Magomed Ankalaev 2252.70 +234.45 79.41%
WHR Magomed Ankalaev 2028.94 +153.19 66.82%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Magomed Ankalaev 84, Johnny Walker 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Magomed Ankalaev leads 7-3
.

Flyweight (125)
[#6] Manel Kape (19-6-0, -242) vs. [#10] Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1, +193)
Manel Kape is the All-Time #39 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Matheus Nicolau is the All-Time #33 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Manel Kape (3-0-0)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#133FLY] Felipe dos Santos (8-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-12-17: W vs. [#46FLY] David Dvorak (20-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-12-04: W vs. [#244BW] Zhalgas Zhumagulov (15-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:02 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Matheus Nicolau (2-1-0)
2023-04-15: L vs. [#5FLY] Brandon Royval (15-7-0) via KO (Knee and Elbows) in 2:09 of round 1
2022-12-03: W vs. [#36FLY] Matt Schnell (16-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:44 of round 2
2022-03-26: W vs. [#46FLY] David Dvorak (20-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Manel Kape -242 67.46%
Elo K170 Matheus Nicolau 1799.59 +1.16 50.13%
Elo Modified Manel Kape 1808.32 +55.36 56.03%
Glicko-1 Manel Kape 1868.67 +108.98 65.19%
WHR Manel Kape 1805.79 +116.38 62.99%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Manel Kape 126, Matheus Nicolau 273
Previous Match-up Record: Matheus Nicolau leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#52] Jim Miller (36-17-0, -113) vs. [*] Gabriel Benitez (23-10-0, -109)
Jim Miller is the All-Time #42 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jim Miller (2-1-0)
2023-06-03: W vs. [#144FW] Jesse Butler (12-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:23 of round 1
2023-02-18: L vs. [#72FW] Alexander Hernandez (14-7-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-07-02: W vs. [*] Donald Cerrone (36-17-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:32 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Gabriel Benitez (1-2-0)
2022-08-13: W vs. [*] Charlie Ontiveros (11-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:35 of round 1
2022-02-19: L vs. [#66FW] David Onama (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:24 of round 1
2021-07-17: L vs. [#27FW] Billy Quarantillo (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:40 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jim Miller -113 50.42%
Elo K170 Jim Miller 1721.27 +271.05 77.53%
Elo Modified Jim Miller 1715.40 +239.57 74.05%
Glicko-1 Jim Miller 1792.47 +288.68 84.05%
WHR Jim Miller 1659.89 +211.90 72.47%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jim Miller 224, Gabriel Benitez 518
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#25] Ricky Simon (21-4-0, -168) vs. [#33] Mario Bautista (13-2-0, +138)

Last 3 Fights: Ricky Simon (2-1-0)
2023-04-29: L vs. [#11BW] Yadong Song (21-8-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 5
2022-07-16: W vs. [#43FW] Jack Shore (17-1-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:28 of round 2
2021-12-18: W vs. [*] Raphael Assuncao (28-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:14 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Mario Bautista (3-0-0)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#78BW] DaMon Blackshear (14-6-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-03-11: W vs. [#245BW] Guido Cannetti (10-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:18 of round 1
2022-11-05: W vs. [#595BW] Benito Lopez (10-2-0) via Submission (Reverse Triangle Armbar) in 4:54 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ricky Simon -168 59.87%
Elo K170 Ricky Simon 1881.56 +59.09 56.71%
Elo Modified Ricky Simon 1834.32 +18.33 52.00%
Glicko-1 Ricky Simon 1860.45 +0.71 50.10%
WHR Ricky Simon 1778.54 +28.33 53.23%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ricky Simon 259, Mario Bautista 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#61] Brunno Ferreira (10-1-0, -120) vs. [#97] Phil Hawes (12-5-0, -102)

Last 3 Fights: Brunno Ferreira (2-1-0)
2023-07-01: L vs. [#51MW] Nursulton Ruziboev (35-8-2) via TKO in 1:17 of round 1
2023-01-21: W vs. [#42MW] Gregory Rodrigues (14-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:13 of round 1
2022-09-20: W vs. [#243MW] Leon Aliu (11-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:35 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Phil Hawes (1-2-0)
2023-05-06: L vs. [#48MW] Ikram Aliskerov (15-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:10 of round 1
2022-10-29: L vs. [#13MW] Roman Dolidze (12-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:09 of round 1
2022-06-18: W vs. [*] Deron Winn (7-3-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:25 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Brunno Ferreira -120 51.92%
Elo K170 Brunno Ferreira 1606.97 +73.59 58.33%
Elo Modified Brunno Ferreira 1635.48 +55.03 55.99%
Glicko-1 Brunno Ferreira 1696.00 +122.90 66.98%
WHR Brunno Ferreira 1638.27 +54.37 56.18%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brunno Ferreira 196, Phil Hawes 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#48] Waldo Cortes-Acosta (10-1-0, -616) vs. [#70] Andrei Arlovski (34-22-0, +416)
Andrei Arlovski is the All-Time #19 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Waldo Cortes-Acosta (2-1-0)
2023-08-26: W vs. [#164HW+] Lukasz Brzeski (8-4-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:01 of round 1
2023-04-29: L vs. [#24HW+] Marcos Rogerio de Lima (21-9-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-11-19: W vs. [#75HW+] Chase Sherman (17-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Andrei Arlovski (1-2-0)
2023-06-03: L vs. [#53HW+] Dontale Mayes (10-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:17 of round 2
2022-10-29: L vs. [#24HW+] Marcos Rogerio de Lima (21-9-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:50 of round 1
2022-04-30: W vs. [#99HW+] Jake Collier (13-10-0) via SD (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Waldo Cortes-Acosta -616 81.61%
Elo K170 Waldo Cortes-Acosta 1613.29 +93.75 60.55%
Elo Modified Waldo Cortes-Acosta 1692.46 +168.92 67.69%
Glicko-1 Waldo Cortes-Acosta 1682.41 +198.06 75.77%
WHR Waldo Cortes-Acosta 1598.39 +175.83 69.07%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Waldo Cortes-Acosta 140, Andrei Arlovski 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#66] Matthew Semelsberger (11-6-0, -130) vs. [#158] Preston Parsons (10-4-0, +106)

Last 3 Fights: Matthew Semelsberger (1-2-0)
2023-07-29: L vs. [#86WW] Uros Medic (9-2-0) via TKO (Spinning Backfist and Punches) in 2:36 of round 3
2023-04-22: L vs. [#61WW] Jeremiah Wells (12-3-1) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 28-29)
2022-12-17: W vs. [#59WW] Jake Matthews (19-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Preston Parsons (1-2-0)
2023-03-25: L vs. [#115WW] Trevin Giles (16-5-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-04-23: W vs. [#475LW] Evan Elder (8-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2021-07-17: L vs. [#37WW] Daniel Rodriguez (17-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:47 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Matthew Semelsberger -130 53.79%
Elo K170 Matthew Semelsberger 1509.45 +49.90 55.68%
Elo Modified Matthew Semelsberger 1565.05 +25.87 52.83%
Glicko-1 Matthew Semelsberger 1601.84 +35.98 55.16%
WHR Preston Parsons 1543.03 +50.55 55.75%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Matthew Semelsberger 168, Preston Parsons 294
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#187] Marcus McGhee (8-1-0, -275) vs. [#302] Gaston Bolanos (7-3-0, +218)

Last 3 Fights: Marcus McGhee (3-0-0)
2023-08-12: W vs. [#698BW] J.P. Buys (9-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:19 of round 1
2023-04-29: W vs. [#328BW] Journey Newson (11-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:03 of round 2
2023-01-06: W vs. [#1147FW] Luciano Ramos (7-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:39 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Gaston Bolanos (2-1-0)
2023-04-15: W vs. [#798BW] Aaron Phillips (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-04-15: W vs. [#1154FW] Daniel Carey (7-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 1
2020-02-21: L vs. [#890LW] Chris Hatley Jr. (12-8-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Marcus McGhee -275 69.98%
Elo K170 Marcus McGhee 1477.54 +131.28 64.56%
Elo Modified Marcus McGhee 1500.82 +124.70 63.32%
Glicko-1 Marcus McGhee 1535.75 +131.59 68.08%
WHR Marcus McGhee 1445.40 +83.38 59.41%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marcus McGhee 154, Gaston Bolanos 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#45] Taylor Lapilus (19-3-0, +197) vs. [#91] Farid Basharat (11-0-0, -248)

Last 3 Fights: Taylor Lapilus (3-0-0)
2023-09-02: W vs. [#134BW] Caolan Loughran (8-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-04-16: W vs. [#93BW] Demarte Pena (15-1-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 2:33 of round 1
2021-12-11: W vs. [#65BW] Wilson Reis (27-13-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 29-27)

Last 3 Fights: Farid Basharat (3-0-0)
2023-09-02: W vs. [#416BW] Kleydson Rodrigues (8-3-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:15 of round 1
2023-03-04: W vs. [#78BW] DaMon Blackshear (14-6-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-09-13: W vs. [#484BW] Allan Begosso (8-3-1) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Farid Basharat -248 67.91%
Elo K170 Taylor Lapilus 1872.69 +233.79 74.42%
Elo Modified Taylor Lapilus 1835.92 +157.55 66.59%
Glicko-1 Taylor Lapilus 1869.23 +164.70 72.07%
WHR Taylor Lapilus 1782.69 +94.07 60.58%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Taylor Lapilus 133, Farid Basharat 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#162] Jean Silva (11-2-0, -798) vs. [#565] Westin Wilson (16-8-0, +517)

Last 3 Fights: Jean Silva (3-0-0)
2023-09-05: W vs. [#263FW] Kevin Vallejos (12-1-0) via UD ()
2023-03-25: W vs. [#716FW] Shahin Najafi (11-11-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 2:15 of round 1
2023-02-04: W vs. [#1134FW] Valdemir Cardoso (5-2-0) via KO in 2:59 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Westin Wilson (2-1-0)
2023-07-01: L vs. [#26FW] Joanderson Brito (16-3-1) via TKO in 2:54 of round 1
2023-03-03: W vs. [#1216FW] Fabricio Franco (8-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:37 of round 1
2022-11-05: W vs. [#881FW] John Michael Wilson ll (6-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:29 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jean Silva -798 84.57%
Elo K170 Jean Silva 1596.48 +242.16 75.14%
Elo Modified Jean Silva 1636.65 +273.62 76.81%
Glicko-1 Jean Silva 1666.93 +293.18 84.40%
WHR Jean Silva 1653.80 +369.99 84.42%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jean Silva 130, Westin Wilson 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#187] Tom Nolan (6-0-0, -317) vs. [#260] Nikolas Motta (13-5-0, +243)

Last 3 Fights: Tom Nolan (3-0-0)
2023-08-08: W vs. [#182FW] Bogdan Grad (12-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:23 of round 1
2023-03-18: W vs. [#651LW] Aidan Aguilera (9-7-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 2:22 of round 1
2022-12-02: W vs. [#903LW] Adam Cook (7-2-0) via TKO in 0:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Nikolas Motta (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2023-11-18: NC vs. [#178LW] Trey Ogden (16-6-0)
2023-06-17: L vs. [#124LW] Manuel Torres (14-2-0) via KO (Elbow) in 1:50 of round 1
2022-09-17: W vs. [*] Cameron VanCamp (15-7-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:49 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tom Nolan -317 72.28%
Elo K170 Tom Nolan 1516.42 +13.26 51.51%
Elo Modified Tom Nolan 1567.52 +39.61 54.32%
Glicko-1 Tom Nolan 1560.42 +61.75 58.80%
WHR Tom Nolan 1482.66 +45.20 55.15%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tom Nolan 158, Nikolas Motta 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#32] Joshua Van (9-1-0, -225) vs. [#38] Felipe Bunes (13-6-0, +178)

Last 3 Fights: Joshua Van (3-0-0)
2023-11-11: W vs. [#97FLY] Kevin Borjas (9-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-24: W vs. [#244BW] Zhalgas Zhumagulov (15-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-12-18: W vs. [#185FLY] Cleveland Mclean (17-11-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Felipe Bunes (2-1-0)
2023-01-06: W vs. [#118FLY] Yuma Horiuchi (10-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:45 of round 1
2022-07-08: W vs. [*] Wascar Cruz (12-11-0) via SD ()
2022-02-11: L vs. [*] Jussier Formiga (24-8-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:53 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joshua Van -225 65.80%
Elo K170 Joshua Van 1609.81 +89.10 60.04%
Elo Modified Joshua Van 1576.23 +46.80 55.11%
Glicko-1 Joshua Van 1618.30 +68.03 59.67%
WHR Felipe Bunes 1498.35 +54.84 56.23%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joshua Van 63, Felipe Bunes 372
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Magomed Ankalaev
Highest Stored DD Rating: Manel Kape
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Manel Kape vs. Matheus Nicolau
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Very Good [***½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Low [**]
Run Date: 2024-1-7

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