Fight Matrix Program – UFC 295: Procházka vs. Pereira (11-11-2023)

Nov 6, 2023
Jason

Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#1] Alex Pereira (8-2-0, -144) vs. [*] Jiri Prochazka (29-3-1, +119)
Jiri Prochazka is the All-Time #24 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alex Pereira (2-1-0)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#2LHW] Jan Blachowicz (29-10-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-04-08: L vs. [#2MW/#10DD] Israel Adesanya (24-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:21 of round 2
2022-11-12: W vs. [#2MW/#10DD] Israel Adesanya (24-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:01 of round 5

Last 3 Fights: Jiri Prochazka (3-0-0)
2022-06-11: W vs. [*] Glover Teixeira (33-9-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:32 of round 5
2021-05-01: W vs. [#24LHW] Dominick Reyes (12-4-0) via KO (Spinning Back Elbow) in 4:29 of round 2
2020-07-11: W vs. [#14LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (19-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:49 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alex Pereira -144 56.38%
Elo K170 Jiri Prochazka 2199.88 +157.24 67.22%
Elo Modified Jiri Prochazka 2166.26 +150.40 65.89%
Glicko-1 Jiri Prochazka 2308.96 +242.64 80.17%
WHR Jiri Prochazka 2146.51 +162.22 67.72%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex Pereira 105, Jiri Prochazka 518
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight Championship (265)
[#3] Sergei Pavlovich (18-1-0, -106) vs. [#7] Tom Aspinall (13-3-0, -116)
Sergei Pavlovich is the All-Time #44 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Sergei Pavlovich (3-0-0)
2023-04-22: W vs. [#5HW+] Curtis Blaydes (17-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:08 of round 1
2022-12-03: W vs. [#10HW+] Tai Tuivasa (14-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 1
2022-07-30: W vs. [#13HW+] Derrick Lewis (27-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:55 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Tom Aspinall (2-1-0)
2023-07-22: W vs. [#14HW+] Marcin Tybura (24-8-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 1:13 of round 1
2022-07-23: L vs. [#5HW+] Curtis Blaydes (17-4-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 0:15 of round 1
2022-03-19: W vs. [#4HW+] Alexander Volkov (37-10-0) via Submission (Straight Armbar) in 3:45 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tom Aspinall -116 51.06%
Elo K170 Sergei Pavlovich 2123.87 +158.88 67.39%
Elo Modified Sergei Pavlovich 2107.56 +144.90 65.35%
Glicko-1 Sergei Pavlovich 2218.63 +191.51 75.07%
WHR Sergei Pavlovich 2054.35 +129.48 64.37%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sergei Pavlovich 203, Tom Aspinall 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Sergei Pavlovich leads 1-0
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#6] Mackenzie Dern (13-3-0, -200) vs. [#8] Jessica Andrade (24-12-0, +162)
Jessica Andrade is the All-Time #16 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Mackenzie Dern (2-1-0)
2023-05-20: W vs. [#10SW] Angela Hill (16-13-0) via UD (49-44, 49-44, 49-43)
2022-10-01: L vs. [#3SW/#9DD] Xiaonan Yan (18-3-0) via MD (48-47, 48-47, 47-47)
2022-04-09: W vs. [*] Tecia Torres (13-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Andrade (0-3-0)
2023-08-05: L vs. [#4SW] Tatiana Suarez (10-0-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:31 of round 2
2023-05-06: L vs. [#3SW/#9DD] Xiaonan Yan (18-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 1
2023-02-18: L vs. [#4FLY/#10DD/#6P4P] Erin Blanchfield (12-1-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:37 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mackenzie Dern -200 63.59%
Elo K170 Mackenzie Dern 1668.75 +52.63 55.98%
Elo Modified Mackenzie Dern 1685.20 +49.40 55.39%
Glicko-1 Mackenzie Dern 1693.06 +103.43 64.46%
WHR Mackenzie Dern 1652.99 +35.31 54.02%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mackenzie Dern 175, Jessica Andrade 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#55] Pat Sabatini (18-4-0, -135) vs. [#77] Diego Lopes (22-6-0, +110)

Last 3 Fights: Pat Sabatini (2-1-0)
2023-06-17: W vs. [#156FW] Lucas Almeida (14-2-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 1:48 of round 2
2022-09-17: L vs. [#44FW] Damon Jackson (22-6-1) via TKO (Submission to Punches) in 1:09 of round 1
2022-04-16: W vs. [#332FW] T.J. Laramie (13-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Diego Lopes (2-1-0)
2023-08-05: W vs. [#175FW] Gavin Tucker (13-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:38 of round 1
2023-05-06: L vs. [#13FW] Movsar Evloev (17-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-11-18: W vs. [#328BW] Angel Rodriguez (14-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:40 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Pat Sabatini -135 54.67%
Elo K170 Pat Sabatini 1783.11 +150.59 66.55%
Elo Modified Pat Sabatini 1803.26 +115.55 62.38%
Glicko-1 Pat Sabatini 1855.45 +100.60 64.09%
WHR Pat Sabatini 1717.27 +19.00 52.17%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Pat Sabatini 147, Diego Lopes 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#24] Matt Frevola (11-3-1, +167) vs. [#27] Benoit St. Denis (12-1-0, -206)

Last 3 Fights: Matt Frevola (3-0-0)
2023-05-06: W vs. [#28LW] Drew Dober (27-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:08 of round 1
2022-11-12: W vs. [#513LW] Ottman Azaitar (13-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:30 of round 1
2022-01-22: W vs. [#692LW] Genaro Valdez (10-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Benoit St. Denis (3-0-0)
2023-09-02: W vs. [#44LW] Thiago Moises (17-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:44 of round 2
2023-07-01: W vs. [#82LW] Ismael Bonfim (19-4-0) via SUB in 4:48 of round 1
2022-09-03: W vs. [#284FW] Gabriel Miranda (17-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:16 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Benoit St. Denis -206 64.25%
Elo K170 Benoit St. Denis 1909.36 +80.39 59.08%
Elo Modified Benoit St. Denis 1907.28 +92.24 59.96%
Glicko-1 Benoit St. Denis 2007.23 +133.76 68.35%
WHR Benoit St. Denis 1885.67 +138.49 65.31%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Matt Frevola 189, Benoit St. Denis 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#42] Joshua Van (8-1-0, -237) vs. [#82] Kevin Borjas (9-1-0, +189)

Last 3 Fights: Joshua Van (3-0-0)
2023-06-24: W vs. [#78FLY] Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-12-18: W vs. [#178FLY] Cleveland Mclean (17-11-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 2
2022-08-14: W vs. [#127FLY] Paris Moran (9-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:36 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Borjas (3-0-0)
2023-08-08: W vs. [#109FLY] Victor Dias (11-3-0) via UD ()
2022-09-25: W vs. [#488BW] Sebastiao da Silva Calixt (11-5-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 0:02 of round 4
2022-07-10: W vs. [*] Joseph Vieira da Silva (9-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:25 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joshua Van -237 67.02%
Elo K170 Kevin Borjas 1533.73 +11.84 51.35%
Elo Modified Kevin Borjas 1559.89 +78.49 58.51%
Glicko-1 Kevin Borjas 1583.37 +52.19 57.45%
WHR Kevin Borjas 1544.21 +170.88 68.58%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joshua Van 140, Kevin Borjas 95
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#60] Mark O. Madsen (12-1-0, +140) vs. [#70] Jared Gordon (19-6-0, -171)

Last 3 Fights: Mark O. Madsen (2-1-0)
2022-11-05: L vs. [#25LW] Grant Dawson (20-2-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:05 of round 3
2022-04-09: W vs. [*] Vinc Pichel (14-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-08-21: W vs. [#79LW] Clay Guida (38-23-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)

Last 3 Fights: Jared Gordon (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2023-04-22: NC vs. [#12LW] Bobby Green (31-14-1)
2022-12-10: L vs. [#43LW] Paddy Pimblett (20-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-08-20: W vs. [#241LW] Leonardo Santos (18-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jared Gordon -171 60.22%
Elo K170 Mark O. Madsen 1801.83 +69.82 57.91%
Elo Modified Mark O. Madsen 1768.09 +50.50 55.50%
Glicko-1 Mark O. Madsen 1751.15 +33.33 54.78%
WHR Mark O. Madsen 1689.03 +8.61 50.98%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mark O. Madsen 371, Jared Gordon 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#168] Jamall Emmers (19-7-0, -332) vs. [#243] Dennis Buzukja (11-3-0, +253)

Last 3 Fights: Jamall Emmers (1-2-0)
2023-06-24: L vs. [#148FW] Jack Jenkins (12-3-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2023-02-18: W vs. [#569FW] Khusein Askhabov (23-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-08-28: L vs. [#55FW] Pat Sabatini (18-4-0) via Submission (Heel Hook) in 1:53 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Dennis Buzukja (2-1-0)
2023-08-05: L vs. [#100FW] Sean Woodson (10-1-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-06-16: W vs. [#889FW] Soslan Abanokov (6-5-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:29 of round 2
2023-02-25: W vs. [#575FW] Mark Gregory Valerio (7-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:57 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jamall Emmers -332 73.06%
Elo K170 Jamall Emmers 1528.10 +80.88 59.13%
Elo Modified Jamall Emmers 1616.19 +156.01 66.44%
Glicko-1 Jamall Emmers 1681.18 +208.38 76.85%
WHR Jamall Emmers 1621.85 +181.47 69.61%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jamall Emmers 140, Dennis Buzukja 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#120] Nazim Sadykhov (9-1-0, -160) vs. [#194] Viacheslav Borshchev (7-3-0, +131)

Last 3 Fights: Nazim Sadykhov (3-0-0)
2023-07-15: W vs. [#146LW] Terrance McKinney (15-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:07 of round 2
2023-02-18: W vs. [#477LW] Evan Elder (8-2-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 0:38 of round 3
2022-08-16: W vs. [#1087LW] Ahmad Suhail Hasanzada (9-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:59 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Viacheslav Borshchev (1-2-0)
2023-05-20: W vs. [#308LW] Maheshate Hayisaer (9-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:37 of round 2
2022-10-01: L vs. [#116LW] Mike Davis (10-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 29-28)
2022-03-26: L vs. [#103LW] Marc Diakiese (17-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Nazim Sadykhov -160 58.70%
Elo K170 Nazim Sadykhov 1602.22 +156.37 67.14%
Elo Modified Nazim Sadykhov 1614.24 +137.04 64.56%
Glicko-1 Nazim Sadykhov 1659.48 +130.71 67.97%
WHR Nazim Sadykhov 1599.32 +85.92 59.69%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nazim Sadykhov 119, Viacheslav Borshchev 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#11] Lupita Godinez (11-3-0, -139) vs. [#13] Tabatha Ricci (9-1-0, +115)

Last 3 Fights: Lupita Godinez (3-0-0)
2023-09-16: W vs. [#49SW] Elise Reed (7-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:30 of round 2
2023-05-20: W vs. [#20SW] Emily Ducote (13-8-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-04-08: W vs. [#17SW] Cynthia Calvillo (9-6-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Tabatha Ricci (3-0-0)
2023-06-24: W vs. [#14SW] Gillian Robertson (12-8-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-03-04: W vs. [#64SW] Jessica Penne (14-7-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:14 of round 2
2022-05-21: W vs. [#51SW] Polyana Viana (13-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Lupita Godinez -139 55.56%
Elo K170 Lupita Godinez 1592.50 +6.60 50.75%
Elo Modified Lupita Godinez 1602.26 +1.83 50.20%
Glicko-1 Tabatha Ricci 1587.69 +11.92 51.71%
WHR Tabatha Ricci 1552.70 +50.14 55.70%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lupita Godinez 56, Tabatha Ricci 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Tabatha Ricci leads 1-0
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#61] Kyung Ho Kang (19-9-0, +123) vs. [#62] John Castaneda (21-6-0, -150)

Last 3 Fights: Kyung Ho Kang (2-1-0)
2023-06-17: W vs. [#159BW] Cristian Quinonez (18-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:25 of round 1
2022-06-11: W vs. [#229BW] Batgerel Danaa (11-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-11-20: L vs. [#85BW] Rani Yahya (28-11-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: John Castaneda (2-1-0)
2023-06-03: W vs. [#102BW] Muin Gafurov (19-6-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
2022-10-01: L vs. [#69BW] Daniel Santos (13-2-0) via KO (Punches and Knee) in 4:28 of round 2
2022-02-05: W vs. [#73BW] Miles Johns (14-2-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 1:38 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds John Castaneda -150 57.23%
Elo K170 Kyung Ho Kang 1756.19 +98.03 61.01%
Elo Modified Kyung Ho Kang 1726.92 +42.72 54.66%
Glicko-1 Kyung Ho Kang 1758.69 +20.71 52.98%
WHR Kyung Ho Kang 1666.53 +27.22 53.10%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kyung Ho Kang 147, John Castaneda 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#28] Steve Erceg (10-1-0, -159) vs. [#64] Alessandro Costa (13-3-0, +136)

Last 3 Fights: Steve Erceg (3-0-0)
2023-06-10: W vs. [#40FLY] David Dvorak (20-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-02-11: W vs. [#703FLY] Soichiro Hirai (4-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 1
2021-10-30: W vs. [#850BW] Paul Loga (9-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:31 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Alessandro Costa (2-1-0)
2023-06-17: W vs. [#165FLY] Jimmy Flick (16-7-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 1:03 of round 2
2022-12-17: L vs. [#4FLY] Amir Albazi (17-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:13 of round 3
2022-10-14: W vs. [#1495BW] Carlos Gomez (6-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:12 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Steve Erceg -159 59.16%
Elo K170 Alessandro Costa 1641.42 +21.63 52.47%
Elo Modified Steve Erceg 1633.26 +9.44 51.03%
Glicko-1 Steve Erceg 1649.20 +8.32 51.20%
WHR Steve Erceg 1620.97 +38.29 54.36%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Steve Erceg 154, Alessandro Costa 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Alex Pereira
Highest Stored DD Rating: Alex Pereira
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Moderate [***]
Run Date: 2023-11-5

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