Fight Matrix Program – UFC 294 (10-21-2023)

Oct 16, 2023
Jason

Lightweight Championship (155)
[#1/#1DD/#3P4P] Islam Makhachev (24-1-0, -260) vs. [#4/#2P4P] Alexander Volkanovski (26-2-0, +208)
Islam Makhachev is the All-Time #14 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Alexander Volkanovski is the All-Time #7 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Islam Makhachev (3-0-0)
2023-02-11: W vs. [#4LW/#2P4P] Alexander Volkanovski (26-2-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2022-10-22: W vs. [#2LW/#6DD] Charles Oliveira (34-9-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:16 of round 2
2022-02-26: W vs. [#13LW] Bobby Green (31-14-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:23 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkanovski (2-1-0)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#2FW] Yair Rodriguez (19-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:19 of round 3
2023-02-11: L vs. [#1LW/#1DD/#3P4P] Islam Makhachev (24-1-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2022-07-02: W vs. [#1FW] Max Holloway (25-7-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Islam Makhachev -260 68.98%
Elo K170 Islam Makhachev 2455.71 +65.06 57.38%
Elo Modified Islam Makhachev 2390.30 +64.15 56.97%
Glicko-1 Islam Makhachev 2498.59 +65.68 59.34%
WHR Islam Makhachev 2358.00 +86.02 59.70%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Islam Makhachev 252, Alexander Volkanovski 105
Previous Match-up Record: Islam Makhachev leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#2WW/#9P4P] Kamaru Usman (20-3-0, +225) vs. [#7] Khamzat Chimaev (12-0-0, -283)
Kamaru Usman is the All-Time #11 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kamaru Usman (1-2-0)
2023-03-18: L vs. [#1WW/#4DD/#1P4P] Leon Edwards (21-3-0) via MD (48-46, 48-46, 47-47)
2022-08-20: L vs. [#1WW/#4DD/#1P4P] Leon Edwards (21-3-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 4:04 of round 5
2021-11-06: W vs. [*] Colby Covington (17-3-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Khamzat Chimaev (3-0-0)
2022-09-10: W vs. [#11WW] Kevin Holland (25-10-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:13 of round 1
2022-04-09: W vs. [#4WW] Gilbert Burns (22-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-10-30: W vs. [#39WW] Jingliang Li (19-8-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:16 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Khamzat Chimaev -283 70.60%
Elo K170 Kamaru Usman 2305.20 +231.30 74.21%
Elo Modified Kamaru Usman 2282.87 +196.37 70.26%
Glicko-1 Kamaru Usman 2382.80 +192.31 75.16%
WHR Kamaru Usman 2141.97 +94.38 60.62%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kamaru Usman 217, Khamzat Chimaev 406
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#5] Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1, -361) vs. [#9] Johnny Walker (21-7-0, +273)
Magomed Ankalaev is the All-Time #45 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Magomed Ankalaev (2-0-1)
2022-12-10: D vs. [#2LHW] Jan Blachowicz (29-10-1) via Draw (Split) in 5:00 of round 5
2022-07-30: W vs. [#13LHW] Anthony Smith (37-18-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:09 of round 2
2022-03-12: W vs. [#12LHW] Thiago Santos (22-11-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Johnny Walker (3-0-0)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#13LHW] Anthony Smith (37-18-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-01-21: W vs. [#17MW] Paul Craig (17-6-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:16 of round 1
2022-09-10: W vs. [#26LHW] Ion Cutelaba (17-9-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:37 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Magomed Ankalaev -361 74.49%
Elo K170 Magomed Ankalaev 2160.52 +228.44 73.95%
Elo Modified Magomed Ankalaev 2151.75 +219.08 72.29%
Glicko-1 Magomed Ankalaev 2253.08 +234.40 79.40%
WHR Magomed Ankalaev 2037.57 +138.18 65.28%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Magomed Ankalaev 315, Johnny Walker 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Magomed Ankalaev leads 7-3
.

Middleweight (185)
[#59] Ikram Aliskerov (14-1-0, -592) vs. [#87WW] Warlley Alves (14-6-0, +411)

Last 3 Fights: Ikram Aliskerov (3-0-0)
2023-05-06: W vs. [#98MW] Phil Hawes (12-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:10 of round 1
2022-09-13: W vs. [#176MW] Mario Filipe de Sousa (19-4-1) via Submission (Kimura) in 2:09 of round 1
2022-03-11: W vs. [*] Nah-Shon Burrell (19-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Warlley Alves (1-2-0)
2023-01-21: L vs. [#31WW] Nicolas Dalby (22-5-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2021-06-26: L vs. [#59WW] Jeremiah Wells (12-3-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:30 of round 2
2021-01-20: W vs. [#160WW] Mounir Lazzez (11-3-0) via TKO (Body Kicks and Punches) in 2:35 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ikram Aliskerov -592 81.38%
Elo K170 Ikram Aliskerov 1757.90 +207.40 72.06%
Elo Modified Ikram Aliskerov 1791.32 +165.23 67.34%
Glicko-1 Ikram Aliskerov 1851.19 +193.25 75.26%
WHR Ikram Aliskerov 1839.05 +182.88 69.75%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ikram Aliskerov 168, Warlley Alves 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#23] Said Nurmagomedov (17-3-0, -226) vs. [#99] Muin Gafurov (19-5-0, +183)

Last 3 Fights: Said Nurmagomedov (2-1-0)
2023-03-11: L vs. [#13BW] Jonathan Martinez (19-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-12-17: W vs. [#48BW] Saidyokub Kakhramonov (11-3-0) via Submission (Ninja Choke) in 3:50 of round 2
2022-07-09: W vs. [#56FW] Douglas Silva de Andrade (29-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Muin Gafurov (2-1-0)
2023-06-03: L vs. [#61BW] John Castaneda (21-6-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
2022-10-14: W vs. [#469FW] Diego Silva (15-9-0) via KO (Spinning Back Kick) in 0:23 of round 3
2022-06-10: W vs. [#216BW] Herbeth Reis de Sousa (16-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:56 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Said Nurmagomedov -226 66.23%
Elo K170 Said Nurmagomedov 1833.30 +274.19 77.78%
Elo Modified Said Nurmagomedov 1836.77 +212.15 71.68%
Glicko-1 Said Nurmagomedov 1888.91 +207.68 76.77%
WHR Said Nurmagomedov 1852.81 +234.35 74.47%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Said Nurmagomedov 224, Muin Gafurov 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Flyweight (125)
[#13] Tim Elliott (19-12-1, +345) vs. [#17] Muhammad Mokaev (10-0-0, -477)
Tim Elliott is the All-Time #49 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Tim Elliott (2-1-0)
2023-06-03: W vs. [#81FLY] Victor Altamirano (12-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-03-05: W vs. [#16FLY] Tagir Ulanbekov (15-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-10-09: L vs. [#9FLY] Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Muhammad Mokaev (3-0-0)
2023-03-18: W vs. [#92FLY] Jafel Filho (15-3-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 4:32 of round 3
2022-10-22: W vs. [#122FLY] Malcolm Gordon (14-7-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:26 of round 3
2022-07-23: W vs. [#59FLY] Charles Johnson (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Muhammad Mokaev -477 78.62%
Elo K170 Tim Elliott 1767.25 +19.87 52.27%
Elo Modified Muhammad Mokaev 1751.17 +10.50 51.15%
Glicko-1 Muhammad Mokaev 1814.81 +54.97 57.85%
WHR Muhammad Mokaev 1722.37 +39.54 54.50%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tim Elliott 140, Muhammad Mokaev 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#178] Trevor Peek (8-1-0, -140) vs. [#364] Mohammad Yahya (12-3-0, +122)

Last 3 Fights: Trevor Peek (2-1-0)
2023-06-24: L vs. [#47FW] Jose Mariscal (15-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-02-25: W vs. [#421LW] Erick Gonzalez (14-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 1
2022-09-13: W vs. [#359LW] Malik Lewis (6-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:37 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Mohammad Yahya (3-0-0)
2023-02-26: W vs. [#875LW] Souhil Tahiri (5-4-1) via UD ()
2022-03-27: W vs. [#1348LW] Mohamed El Jaghdal (7-9-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:01 of round 5
2021-09-03: W vs. [#396LW] Yazid Chouchane (10-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:48 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Trevor Peek -140 56.42%
Elo K170 Trevor Peek 1484.84 +33.52 53.82%
Elo Modified Trevor Peek 1531.13 +56.42 56.15%
Glicko-1 Trevor Peek 1571.49 +95.27 63.38%
WHR Trevor Peek 1484.63 +58.75 56.67%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Trevor Peek 119, Mohammad Yahya 237
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#41] Victor Henry (23-6-0, +386) vs. [#44] Javid Basharat (14-0-0, -546)

Last 3 Fights: Victor Henry (2-1-0)
2023-03-11: W vs. [#87BW] Tony Gravely (23-9-0) via SD (30-27, 29-28, 28-29)
2022-10-15: L vs. [*] Raphael Assuncao (28-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-01-22: W vs. [#59BW] Raoni Barcelos (17-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Javid Basharat (3-0-0)
2023-01-14: W vs. [#181FLY] Mateus Mendonca (10-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-09-17: W vs. [#87BW] Tony Gravely (23-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-03-12: W vs. [#63BW] Trevin Jones (15-10-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Javid Basharat -546 80.41%
Elo K170 Victor Henry 1815.77 +17.46 51.99%
Elo Modified Javid Basharat 1802.48 +44.67 54.87%
Glicko-1 Javid Basharat 1847.18 +60.00 58.55%
WHR Javid Basharat 1744.30 +53.40 56.07%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Victor Henry 224, Javid Basharat 280
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#144] Sedriques Dumas (9-1-0, -214) vs. [*] Abu Azaitar (14-2-1, +174)

Last 3 Fights: Sedriques Dumas (2-1-0)
2023-06-24: W vs. [#94MW] Cody Brundage (9-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-03-11: L vs. [#128MW] Josh Fremd (11-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:00 of round 2
2022-08-30: W vs. [#207MW] Matej Penaz (7-1-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:47 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Abu Azaitar (2-1-0)
2021-03-27: L vs. [#40MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:56 of round 3
2018-07-22: W vs. [*] Vitor Miranda (12-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2016-10-07: W vs. [*] Michael Arrant (15-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Sedriques Dumas -214 65.12%
Elo K170 Abu Azaitar 1554.97 +104.27 61.69%
Elo Modified Abu Azaitar 1605.26 +125.28 63.38%
Glicko-1 Abu Azaitar 1610.49 +138.26 68.91%
WHR Abu Azaitar 1519.65 +64.59 57.32%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sedriques Dumas 119, Abu Azaitar 938
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#146] Anshul Jubli (7-0-0, -332) vs. [#508] Mike Breeden (10-6-0, +256)

Last 3 Fights: Anshul Jubli (3-0-0)
2023-02-04: W vs. [#304LW] Jeka Asparido Saragih (13-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:44 of round 2
2022-10-23: W vs. [#188LW] Kyung Pyo Kim (12-4-0) via SD ()
2021-09-24: W vs. [*] Mohammad Mahmoudian (2-3-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Mike Breeden (0-3-0)
2023-08-12: L vs. [#150LW] Terrance McKinney (15-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:25 of round 1
2022-04-30: L vs. [#258LW] Natan Levy (8-1-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-10-02: L vs. [#75FW] Alexander Hernandez (14-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:20 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Anshul Jubli -332 73.23%
Elo K170 Anshul Jubli 1612.15 +338.93 82.47%
Elo Modified Anshul Jubli 1649.18 +336.71 81.37%
Glicko-1 Anshul Jubli 1592.78 +279.52 83.33%
WHR Anshul Jubli 1553.74 +284.36 78.57%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anshul Jubli 259, Mike Breeden 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#28] Nathaniel Wood (19-5-0, -334) vs. [#59] Muhammadjon Naimov (9-2-0, +258)

Last 3 Fights: Nathaniel Wood (3-0-0)
2023-07-22: W vs. [#57FW] Andre Fili (22-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-09-03: W vs. [#39FW] Charles Jourdain (15-6-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-07-23: W vs. [*] Charles Rosa (14-8-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Muhammadjon Naimov (3-0-0)
2023-06-03: W vs. [#95LW] Jamie Mullarkey (17-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:59 of round 2
2023-03-03: W vs. [#2023FW] Dylan Schulte (4-4-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 0:34 of round 1
2022-08-12: W vs. [#237FW] Sitik Muduev (12-4-0) via SD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Nathaniel Wood -334 73.37%
Elo K170 Nathaniel Wood 1833.95 +295.21 79.39%
Elo Modified Nathaniel Wood 1808.56 +281.25 77.41%
Glicko-1 Nathaniel Wood 1849.57 +319.78 86.30%
WHR Nathaniel Wood 1765.89 +291.44 79.11%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nathaniel Wood 91, Muhammadjon Naimov 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#23] Victoria Dudakova (7-0-0, -492) vs. [#83] Jinh Yu Frey (11-9-0, +363)

Last 3 Fights: Victoria Dudakova (3-0-0)
2023-07-15: W vs. [#156SW] Istela Nunes (6-5-0) via TKO (Arm Injury) in 0:34 of round 1
2022-08-30: W vs. [#32SW] Maria Silva (9-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-11-14: W vs. [#50SW] Marina Shutova (5-2-1) via Submission in 4:05 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jinh Yu Frey (0-3-0)
2023-06-03: L vs. [#48SW] Elise Reed (7-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-11-05: L vs. [#51SW] Polyana Viana (13-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:47 of round 1
2022-06-25: L vs. [#31SW] Vanessa Demopoulos (10-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Victoria Dudakova -492 79.37%
Elo K170 Victoria Dudakova 1512.48 +376.58 84.82%
Elo Modified Victoria Dudakova 1563.23 +351.31 82.32%
Glicko-1 Victoria Dudakova 1546.53 +360.66 88.86%
WHR Victoria Dudakova 1474.36 +336.58 82.31%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Victoria Dudakova 98, Jinh Yu Frey 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#30] Bruno Silva (23-9-0, +199) vs. [#41] Sharabutdin Magomedov (17-0-0, -247)

Last 3 Fights: Bruno Silva (1-2-0)
2023-06-24: L vs. [#10MW] Brendan Allen (22-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:39 of round 1
2023-04-22: W vs. [#26MW] Brad Tavares (20-8-0) via TKO (Knee and Punch) in 3:35 of round 1
2022-08-13: L vs. [#52MW] Gerald Meerschaert (35-17-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:39 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Sharabutdin Magomedov (3-0-0)
2022-12-11: W vs. [#1543FW] Kushal Vyas (10-10-0) via KO (Knee and Punches) in 0:08 of round 1
2022-12-03: W vs. [#56MW] Mikhail Ragozin (21-6-0) via UD ()
2022-08-13: W vs. [#110MW] Sergey Martynov (17-5-0) via TKO (Knees) in 2:34 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Sharabutdin Magomedov -247 68.03%
Elo K170 Sharabutdin Magomedov 1813.62 +78.03 58.82%
Elo Modified Sharabutdin Magomedov 1825.74 +67.33 57.32%
Glicko-1 Sharabutdin Magomedov 1890.05 +86.32 62.17%
WHR Sharabutdin Magomedov 1799.62 +61.81 57.01%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bruno Silva 119, Sharabutdin Magomedov 314
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Islam Makhachev
Highest Stored DD Rating: Islam Makhachev
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Very Good [***½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Large [***½]
Run Date: 2023-10-17

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