Fight Matrix Program – UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana (06-10-2023)

Jun 5, 2023
Jason

Women Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#1DD/#1P4P] Amanda Nunes (22-5-0, -327) vs. [#4] Irene Aldana (14-6-0, +248)
Amanda Nunes is the All-Time #1 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Nunes (2-1-0)
2022-07-30: W vs. [#2BW/#3DD] Julianna Pena (11-5-0) via UD (50-45, 50-44, 50-43)
2021-12-11: L vs. [#2BW/#3DD] Julianna Pena (11-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:26 of round 2
2021-03-06: W vs. [*] Megan Anderson (11-5-0) via Submission (Reverse Triangle Armbar) in 2:03 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Irene Aldana (2-1-0)
2022-09-10: W vs. [#9BW] Macy Chiasson (8-3-0) via KO (Upkick to the Body) in 2:21 of round 3
2021-07-10: W vs. [#15BW] Yana Santos (14-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:35 of round 1
2020-10-03: L vs. [#6BW] Holly Holm (15-6-0) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 50-45)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Amanda Nunes -327 72.71%
Elo K170 Amanda Nunes 1949.16 +237.01 74.70%
Elo Modified Amanda Nunes 1936.59 +210.83 71.56%
Glicko-1 Amanda Nunes 1950.51 +230.19 79.00%
WHR Amanda Nunes 1944.20 +265.61 77.09%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Amanda Nunes 315, Irene Aldana 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Amanda Nunes leads 2-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#2/#7DD] Charles Oliveira (33-9-0, -100) vs. [#5] Beneil Dariush (22-4-1, -125)
Charles Oliveira is the All-Time #8 ranked Lightweight and #40 ranked Absolute fighter.
Beneil Dariush is the All-Time #40 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Charles Oliveira (2-1-0)
2022-10-22: L vs. [#1LW/#1DD/#3P4P] Islam Makhachev (24-1-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:16 of round 2
2022-05-07: W vs. [#4LW] Justin Gaethje (24-4-0) via NC in 3:22 of round 1
2021-12-11: W vs. [#3LW/#10DD] Dustin Poirier (29-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:02 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Beneil Dariush (3-0-0)
2022-10-22: W vs. [#10LW] Mateusz Gamrot (22-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2021-05-15: W vs. [#27LW] Tony Ferguson (25-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-02-06: W vs. [#17LW] Diego Ferreira (18-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Beneil Dariush -125 52.63%
Elo K170 Charles Oliveira 2328.06 +61.95 57.03%
Elo Modified Charles Oliveira 2280.23 +68.98 57.49%
Glicko-1 Charles Oliveira 2367.23 +123.21 67.02%
WHR Charles Oliveira 2185.40 +117.37 63.09%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Oliveira 231, Beneil Dariush 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#43] Eryk Anders (15-7-0, +113) vs. [#57] Marc-Andre Barriault (16-6-0, -138)

Last 3 Fights: Eryk Anders (1-2-0)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#90MW] Kyle Daukaus (11-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:45 of round 2
2022-05-21: L vs. [#45MW] Jun Yong Park (16-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2021-12-11: L vs. [#18MW] Andre Muniz (23-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:13 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Marc-Andre Barriault (2-1-0)
2023-03-04: W vs. [#101MW] Julian Marquez (9-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:12 of round 2
2022-09-17: L vs. [#29MW] Anthony Hernandez (11-2-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 1:53 of round 3
2022-04-23: W vs. [#133LHW] Jordan Wright (12-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:36 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Marc-Andre Barriault -138 55.25%
Elo K170 Marc-Andre Barriault 1649.46 +25.55 52.92%
Elo Modified Eryk Anders 1684.26 +1.11 50.12%
Glicko-1 Marc-Andre Barriault 1742.74 +24.53 53.52%
WHR Eryk Anders 1658.13 +48.21 55.48%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Eryk Anders 189, Marc-Andre Barriault 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#11] Dan Ige (16-6-0, -251) vs. [#37] Nate Landwehr (17-4-0, +194)

Last 3 Fights: Dan Ige (1-2-0)
2023-01-14: W vs. [#28FW] Damon Jackson (22-5-1) via KO (Punch) in 4:13 of round 2
2022-06-04: L vs. [#12FW] Movsar Evloev (17-0-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-12-11: L vs. [#6FW] Josh Emmett (18-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Nate Landwehr (3-0-0)
2023-03-25: W vs. [#215FW] Austin Lingo (9-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:11 of round 2
2022-08-13: W vs. [#98FW] David Onama (10-2-0) via MD (28-28, 29-27, 29-27)
2021-10-16: W vs. [#102LW] Ludovit Klein (19-4-1) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 2:22 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dan Ige -251 67.76%
Elo K170 Dan Ige 1876.70 +75.25 58.51%
Elo Modified Dan Ige 1820.61 +47.82 55.22%
Glicko-1 Dan Ige 1880.54 +76.99 60.90%
WHR Dan Ige 1749.14 +59.17 56.72%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Ige 147, Nate Landwehr 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#99] Mike Malott (9-1-1, -213) vs. [#194] Adam Fugitt (9-3-0, +169)

Last 3 Fights: Mike Malott (3-0-0)
2023-02-25: W vs. [#218WW] Yohan Lainesse (9-2-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:15 of round 1
2022-04-09: W vs. [#158WW] Mickey Gall (7-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:41 of round 1
2021-10-05: W vs. [#416WW] Shimon Smotritsky (9-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:39 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Adam Fugitt (2-1-0)
2023-02-04: W vs. [#420WW] Yusaku Kinoshita (6-2-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:36 of round 1
2022-07-30: L vs. [#63WW] Michael Morales (14-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:09 of round 3
2022-02-25: W vs. [#417LW] Solomon Renfro (9-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:43 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mike Malott -213 64.67%
Elo K170 Mike Malott 1651.73 +173.61 68.85%
Elo Modified Mike Malott 1666.31 +162.34 67.06%
Glicko-1 Mike Malott 1680.55 +146.72 69.94%
WHR Mike Malott 1743.09 +228.36 73.95%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mike Malott 105, Adam Fugitt 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#22] Miranda Maverick (11-4-0, -298) vs. [#27] Jasmine Jasudavicius (8-2-0, +227)

Last 3 Fights: Miranda Maverick (2-1-0)
2022-11-05: W vs. [#63FLY] Shanna Young (9-5-0) via UD ()
2022-03-12: W vs. [#109FLY] Sabina Mazo (9-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:15 of round 2
2021-12-11: L vs. [#4FLY] Erin Blanchfield (11-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Jasmine Jasudavicius (2-1-0)
2023-02-25: W vs. [#53FLY] Gabriella Fernandes (8-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2022-06-18: L vs. [#17FLY] Natalia Silva (15-5-1) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-01-22: W vs. [#65SW] Kay Hansen (7-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Miranda Maverick -298 71.00%
Elo K170 Miranda Maverick 1478.04 +1.34 50.15%
Elo Modified Miranda Maverick 1538.65 +20.88 52.28%
Glicko-1 Miranda Maverick 1531.00 +9.56 51.37%
WHR Miranda Maverick 1535.84 +53.00 56.03%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Miranda Maverick 217, Jasmine Jasudavicius 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#100] Maria Oliveira (13-6-0, -115) vs. [*] Diana Belbita (14-7-0, -109)

Last 3 Fights: Maria Oliveira (1-2-0)
2022-11-19: L vs. [#37SW] Vanessa Demopoulos (9-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-06-18: W vs. [#101SW] Gloria de Paula (6-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2021-10-23: L vs. [#28SW] Tabatha Ricci (8-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Diana Belbita (1-2-0)
2022-02-19: L vs. [#101SW] Gloria de Paula (6-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-07-24: W vs. [#118FLY] Hannah Goldy (6-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-07-15: L vs. [#60BW] Liana Jojua (8-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:47 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Maria Oliveira -115 50.63%
Elo K170 Maria Oliveira 1223.39 +80.43 59.08%
Elo Modified Maria Oliveira 1185.29 +0.49 50.06%
Glicko-1 Maria Oliveira 1160.77 +13.13 51.89%
WHR Maria Oliveira 1159.82 +17.19 51.96%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Maria Oliveira 203, Diana Belbita 476
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Maria Oliveira leads 1-0
.

Featherweight (145)
[#108] Blake Bilder (8-0-1, -207) vs. [#234] Kyle Nelson (13-5-1, +164)

Last 3 Fights: Blake Bilder (3-0-0)
2023-02-11: W vs. [#474FW] Shane Young (13-7-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-08-30: W vs. [#328LW] Alex Morgan (13-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:15 of round 1
2022-04-15: W vs. [#304FW] Regivaldo Carvalho (8-4-0) via KO in 2:53 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Kyle Nelson (0-2-1)
2023-02-04: D vs. [#199FW] Doo Ho Choi (14-4-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2022-07-23: L vs. [#101LW] Jai Herbert (12-4-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-09-12: L vs. [#36FW] Billy Quarantillo (17-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:07 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Blake Bilder -207 64.03%
Elo K170 Blake Bilder 1609.23 +163.36 67.84%
Elo Modified Blake Bilder 1613.60 +158.62 66.69%
Glicko-1 Blake Bilder 1647.63 +201.14 76.09%
WHR Blake Bilder 1613.01 +215.84 72.83%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Blake Bilder 119, Kyle Nelson 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#23] David Dvorak (20-5-0, -181) vs. [#24] Matt Schnell (16-8-0, +144)

Last 3 Fights: David Dvorak (1-2-0)
2022-12-17: L vs. [#8FLY] Manel Kape (18-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2022-03-26: L vs. [#10FLY] Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-05-22: W vs. [#296FLY] Juancamilo Ronderos (4-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:18 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Matt Schnell (1-2-0)
2022-12-03: L vs. [#10FLY] Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1) via KO (Punches) in 1:44 of round 2
2022-07-16: W vs. [#90FLY] Su Mudaerji (16-5-0) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:24 of round 2
2022-05-07: L vs. [#6FLY] Brandon Royval (15-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:14 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds David Dvorak -181 61.11%
Elo K170 David Dvorak 1595.21 +13.57 51.55%
Elo Modified David Dvorak 1600.24 +57.68 56.28%
Glicko-1 David Dvorak 1653.35 +110.79 65.42%
WHR David Dvorak 1600.40 +119.74 63.34%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: David Dvorak 175, Matt Schnell 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#143] Aiemann Zahabi (9-2-0, +109) vs. [#184] Qileng Aori (25-9-0, -136)

Last 3 Fights: Aiemann Zahabi (2-1-0)
2022-07-09: W vs. [#295BW] Ricky Turcios (12-3-0) via UD ()
2021-02-20: W vs. [#986LW] Drako Rodriguez (8-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:05 of round 1
2019-05-04: L vs. [#183FW] Vince Morales (12-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Qileng Aori (2-1-0)
2022-08-20: W vs. [#371BW] Jay Perrin (10-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-04-23: W vs. [#802BW] Cameron Else (10-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:48 of round 1
2021-11-20: L vs. [#25FLY] Cody Durden (15-4-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Qileng Aori -136 54.63%
Elo K170 Aiemann Zahabi 1534.22 +48.83 55.56%
Elo Modified Aiemann Zahabi 1546.87 +44.68 54.88%
Glicko-1 Aiemann Zahabi 1533.73 +1.57 50.23%
WHR Aiemann Zahabi 1521.80 +87.39 59.85%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Aiemann Zahabi 336, Qileng Aori 294
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#19] Nassourdine Imavov (12-4-0, -130) vs. [#22] Chris Curtis (30-10-0, +105)

Last 3 Fights: Nassourdine Imavov (2-1-0)
2023-01-14: L vs. [#9MW] Sean Strickland (26-5-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2022-09-03: W vs. [#40WW] Joaquin Buckley (16-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-11-06: W vs. [#52MW] Edmen Shahbazyan (12-4-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:42 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Chris Curtis (1-2-0)
2023-04-08: L vs. [#11MW] Kelvin Gastelum (18-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-12-10: W vs. [#40WW] Joaquin Buckley (16-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:49 of round 2
2022-07-23: L vs. [#17MW] Jack Hermansson (23-8-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Nassourdine Imavov -130 53.67%
Elo K170 Chris Curtis 1790.98 +28.41 53.24%
Elo Modified Chris Curtis 1834.90 +60.78 56.61%
Glicko-1 Chris Curtis 1904.60 +63.89 59.09%
WHR Chris Curtis 1791.99 +57.18 56.49%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nassourdine Imavov 147, Chris Curtis 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Chris Curtis leads 2-1
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#16HW+] Chris Daukaus (12-6-0, +194) vs. [#19] Khalil Rountree (11-6-0, -250)

Last 3 Fights: Chris Daukaus (0-3-0)
2022-12-10: L vs. [#13HW+] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (13-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:23 of round 1
2022-03-26: L vs. [#4HW+] Curtis Blaydes (17-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:17 of round 2
2021-12-18: L vs. [#12HW+] Derrick Lewis (26-11-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Khalil Rountree (3-0-0)
2022-10-29: W vs. [#26LHW] Dustin Jacoby (18-7-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-03-12: W vs. [#127LHW] Karl Roberson (9-6-0) via TKO (Body Kick and Punches) in 0:25 of round 2
2021-09-04: W vs. [#51LHW] Modestas Bukauskas (14-5-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 2:30 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Khalil Rountree -250 67.74%
Elo K170 Khalil Rountree 1726.55 +90.32 60.17%
Elo Modified Khalil Rountree 1693.72 +48.70 55.31%
Glicko-1 Khalil Rountree 1725.53 +42.77 56.12%
WHR Khalil Rountree 1681.21 +125.96 64.00%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chris Daukaus 182, Khalil Rountree 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Charles Oliveira
Highest Stored DD Rating: Charles Oliveira
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Charles Oliveira vs. Beneil Dariush
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Charles Oliveira vs. Beneil Dariush
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Moderate [***]
Run Date: 2023-6-4

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