Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill (05-20-2023)

May 15, 2023
Jason

Women Strawweight (115)
[#8] Angela Hill (15-12-0, +147) vs. [#10] Mackenzie Dern (12-3-0, -183)

Last 3 Fights: Angela Hill (2-1-0)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#16SW] Emily Ducote (12-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-08-13: W vs. [#14SW] Lupita Godinez (9-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-05-14: L vs. [#7SW] Virna Jandiroba (19-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Mackenzie Dern (1-2-0)
2022-10-01: L vs. [#4SW/#10DD/#8P4P] Xiaonan Yan (18-3-0) via MD (48-47, 48-47, 47-47)
2022-04-09: W vs. [#11SW] Tecia Torres (13-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2021-10-09: L vs. [#9SW] Marina Rodriguez (16-3-2) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mackenzie Dern -183 61.49%
Elo K170 Mackenzie Dern 1590.25 +27.59 53.15%
Elo Modified Angela Hill 1610.52 +23.52 52.57%
Glicko-1 Angela Hill 1630.35 +12.16 51.75%
WHR Mackenzie Dern 1579.73 +53.46 56.08%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Angela Hill 168, Mackenzie Dern 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Mackenzie Dern leads 7-4
.

Middleweight (185)
[#49] Anthony Hernandez (10-2-0, -252) vs. [#51] Edmen Shahbazyan (12-3-0, +196)

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Hernandez (3-0-0)
2022-09-17: W vs. [#58MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (16-6-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 1:53 of round 3
2022-04-09: W vs. [#139MW] Josh Fremd (10-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-02-13: W vs. [#74MW] Rodolfo Vieira (9-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:53 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Edmen Shahbazyan (1-2-0)
2022-12-10: W vs. [#161MW] Dalcha Lungiambula (11-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:41 of round 2
2021-11-06: L vs. [#19MW] Nassourdine Imavov (12-4-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:42 of round 2
2021-05-22: L vs. [#17MW] Jack Hermansson (23-8-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Anthony Hernandez -252 67.94%
Elo K170 Anthony Hernandez 1736.83 +96.52 60.85%
Elo Modified Anthony Hernandez 1761.59 +117.10 62.54%
Glicko-1 Anthony Hernandez 1794.05 +101.55 64.21%
WHR Anthony Hernandez 1759.71 +189.55 70.39%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anthony Hernandez 245, Edmen Shahbazyan 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#14] Lupita Godinez (9-3-0, -155) vs. [#16] Emily Ducote (12-7-0, +128)

Last 3 Fights: Lupita Godinez (2-1-0)
2023-04-08: W vs. [#31SW] Cynthia Calvillo (9-6-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2022-08-13: L vs. [#8SW] Angela Hill (15-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-05-07: W vs. [#47SW] Ariane Carnelossi (14-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Emily Ducote (2-1-0)
2022-12-03: L vs. [#8SW] Angela Hill (15-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-07-16: W vs. [#57SW] Jessica Penne (14-7-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-05-11: W vs. [#59SW] Alesha Zappitella (9-4-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Lupita Godinez -155 58.08%
Elo K170 Emily Ducote 1469.46 +7.84 50.90%
Elo Modified Emily Ducote 1498.99 +42.59 54.65%
Glicko-1 Emily Ducote 1519.91 +80.11 61.33%
WHR Lupita Godinez 1432.94 +27.61 53.15%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lupita Godinez 42, Emily Ducote 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Emily Ducote leads 1-0
.

Welterweight (170)
[#47MW] Joaquin Buckley (15-6-0, -225) vs. [#69] Andre Fialho (16-6-0, +177)

Last 3 Fights: Joaquin Buckley (1-2-0)
2022-12-10: L vs. [#22MW] Chris Curtis (30-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:49 of round 2
2022-09-03: L vs. [#19MW] Nassourdine Imavov (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2022-06-18: W vs. [#62MW] Albert Duraev (16-4-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Andre Fialho (1-2-0)
2022-11-19: L vs. [#34WW] Muslim Salikhov (19-3-0) via TKO (Spinning Wheel Kick and Punches) in 1:03 of round 3
2022-06-11: L vs. [#57WW] Jake Matthews (18-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:24 of round 2
2022-05-07: W vs. [#505LW] Cameron VanCamp (15-7-1) via KO (Punch) in 2:35 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joaquin Buckley -225 65.72%
Elo K170 Joaquin Buckley 1637.76 +15.05 51.72%
Elo Modified Joaquin Buckley 1646.55 +14.74 51.61%
Glicko-1 Joaquin Buckley 1682.48 +30.60 54.39%
WHR Joaquin Buckley 1594.75 +25.18 52.87%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joaquin Buckley 161, Andre Fialho 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[*] Diego Ferreira (17-5-0, -157) vs. [#79] Michael Johnson (21-18-0, +128)
Diego Ferreira is the All-Time #48 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Michael Johnson is the All-Time #49 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Diego Ferreira (0-3-0)
2021-12-18: L vs. [#10LW] Mateusz Gamrot (22-2-0) via TKO (Submission to Knee to the Body) in 3:26 of round 2
2021-05-08: L vs. [*] Gregor Gillespie (14-1-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:51 of round 2
2021-02-06: L vs. [#5LW] Beneil Dariush (22-4-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Michael Johnson (2-1-0)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#98LW] Marc Diakiese (16-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-07-09: L vs. [#86LW] Jamie Mullarkey (16-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-05-14: W vs. [#381LW] Alan Patrick (15-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:22 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Diego Ferreira -157 58.20%
Elo K170 Diego Ferreira 1810.69 +206.67 71.99%
Elo Modified Diego Ferreira 1859.97 +194.02 70.04%
Glicko-1 Diego Ferreira 1878.89 +181.86 74.02%
WHR Diego Ferreira 1824.95 +184.88 69.94%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Diego Ferreira 518, Michael Johnson 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Michael Johnson leads 1-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#200] Maheshate Hayisaer (9-2-0) vs. [#312] Viacheslav Borshchev (6-3-0)

Last 3 Fights: Maheshate Hayisaer (2-1-0)
2022-12-17: L vs. [#37LW] Rafa Garcia (16-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-06-11: W vs. [#58FW] Steve Garcia (14-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:14 of round 1
2021-11-02: W vs. [*] Achilles Estremadura (7-1-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Viacheslav Borshchev (1-2-0)
2022-10-01: L vs. [#108LW] Mike Davis (10-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 29-28)
2022-03-26: L vs. [#98LW] Marc Diakiese (16-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-01-15: W vs. [#329WW] Dakota Bush (10-4-0) via KO (Punch to the Body) in 3:47 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Maheshate Hayisaer 1451.98 +120.02 63.38%
Elo Modified Maheshate Hayisaer 1444.91 +39.89 54.35%
Glicko-1 Maheshate Hayisaer 1503.98 +79.12 61.19%
WHR Maheshate Hayisaer 1470.98 +51.65 55.87%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Maheshate Hayisaer 154, Viacheslav Borshchev 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#25] Vanessa Demopoulos (9-4-0, +111) vs. [#37] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (14-7-0, -138)

Last 3 Fights: Vanessa Demopoulos (3-0-0)
2022-11-19: W vs. [#99SW] Maria Oliveira (13-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-06-25: W vs. [#44SW] Jinh Yu Frey (11-8-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2022-01-22: W vs. [#77SW] Silvana Gomez Juarez (11-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:25 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Karolina Kowalkiewicz (2-1-0)
2022-11-12: W vs. [#77SW] Silvana Gomez Juarez (11-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-06-04: W vs. [*] Felice Herrig (14-10-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:01 of round 2
2021-08-07: L vs. [#57SW] Jessica Penne (14-7-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:32 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Karolina Kowalkiewicz -138 55.02%
Elo K170 Vanessa Demopoulos 1459.66 +13.14 51.50%
Elo Modified Vanessa Demopoulos 1446.55 +2.72 50.30%
Glicko-1 Vanessa Demopoulos 1410.31 +5.56 50.80%
WHR Karolina Kowalkiewicz 1324.02 +0.94 50.11%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vanessa Demopoulos 182, Karolina Kowalkiewicz 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#248] Orion Cosce (8-1-0, -124) vs. [*] Gilbert Urbina (6-2-0, +101)

Last 3 Fights: Orion Cosce (2-1-0)
2022-07-30: W vs. [#986WW] Mike Mathetha (3-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-07-31: L vs. [#60WW] Philip Rowe (10-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:21 of round 2
2020-08-18: W vs. [#395WW] Matt Dixon (10-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:42 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Gilbert Urbina (1-2-0)
2021-08-28: L vs. [#106WW] Bryan Battle (9-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:15 of round 2
2019-11-01: W vs. [*] Angelo Trevino (10-4-0) via UD ()
2018-09-14: L vs. [#15WW] Sean Brady (15-1-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Orion Cosce -124 52.66%
Elo K170 Orion Cosce 1398.20 +131.08 64.54%
Elo Modified Orion Cosce 1454.39 +136.49 64.51%
Glicko-1 Orion Cosce 1428.02 +157.37 71.21%
WHR Orion Cosce 1376.09 +88.11 59.93%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Orion Cosce 294, Gilbert Urbina 630
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#21] Ilir Latifi (16-8-0, +157) vs. [#39] Rodrigo Nascimento (10-1-0, -196)

Last 3 Fights: Ilir Latifi (2-1-0)
2022-10-01: W vs. [#31HW+] Alexey Oleynik (60-17-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-06-05: W vs. [#68LHW] Tanner Boser (20-10-1) via SD (27-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-02-08: L vs. [#12HW+] Derrick Lewis (26-11-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Rodrigo Nascimento (2-1-0)
2022-09-17: W vs. [#68LHW] Tanner Boser (20-10-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2021-07-17: W vs. [#278HW+] Alan Baudot (8-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:29 of round 2
2020-10-10: L vs. [#16HW+] Chris Daukaus (12-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:45 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Rodrigo Nascimento -196 62.98%
Elo K170 Ilir Latifi 1783.76 +194.56 70.87%
Elo Modified Ilir Latifi 1769.15 +178.68 68.62%
Glicko-1 Ilir Latifi 1789.39 +187.58 74.64%
WHR Ilir Latifi 1727.80 +149.76 66.47%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ilir Latifi 231, Rodrigo Nascimento 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#196FW] Chase Hooper (11-3-1, +111) vs. [#386] Nick Fiore (6-1-0, -137)

Last 3 Fights: Chase Hooper (1-2-0)
2022-10-29: L vs. [#58FW] Steve Garcia (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 1
2022-05-21: W vs. [#197FW] Felipe Dias Colares (11-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:00 of round 3
2021-06-12: L vs. [#157FW] Steven Peterson (19-11-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Nick Fiore (2-1-0)
2023-01-14: L vs. [#68LW] Mateusz Rebecki (18-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2022-11-19: W vs. [NA] Stephen Stengel (6-22-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:27 of round 1
2022-08-05: W vs. [#2282LW] George Sheppard (15-16-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:56 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Nick Fiore -137 54.95%
Elo K170 Chase Hooper 1404.20 +149.01 66.39%
Elo Modified Chase Hooper 1458.47 +152.84 66.13%
Glicko-1 Chase Hooper 1473.89 +114.65 65.92%
WHR Chase Hooper 1439.02 +99.14 61.13%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chase Hooper 203, Nick Fiore 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#17] Natalia Silva (14-5-1, -916) vs. [#63] Victoria Leonardo (9-4-0, +568)

Last 3 Fights: Natalia Silva (3-0-0)
2022-11-19: W vs. [#49FLY] Tereza Bleda (6-1-0) via TKO (Spinning Back Kick and Punches) in 1:27 of round 3
2022-06-18: W vs. [#27FLY] Jasmine Jasudavicius (8-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-12-28: W vs. [#74FLY] Joice Mara da Silva (12-6-0) via Submission (Ambar) in 3:22 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Victoria Leonardo (1-2-0)
2022-07-23: W vs. [#102FLY] Mandy Bohm (8-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-08-07: L vs. [#26FLY] Melissa Gatto (8-1-2) via TKO (Arm Injury) in 5:00 of round 2
2021-01-20: L vs. [#3FLY] Manon Fiorot (10-1-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 4:08 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Natalia Silva -916 85.76%
Elo K170 Natalia Silva 1623.42 +292.07 79.16%
Elo Modified Natalia Silva 1645.30 +251.81 75.07%
Glicko-1 Natalia Silva 1664.68 +324.21 86.60%
WHR Natalia Silva 1621.69 +259.92 76.63%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Natalia Silva 182, Victoria Leonardo 301
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#139] Takashi Sato (16-6-0, -112) vs. [#337] Themba Gorimbo (10-4-0, -112)

Last 3 Fights: Takashi Sato (0-3-0)
2022-08-06: L vs. [#106WW] Bryan Battle (9-2-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:44 of round 1
2022-03-19: L vs. [#23WW] Gunnar Nelson (19-5-1) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2020-11-28: L vs. [#79WW] Miguel Baeza (10-3-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:28 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Themba Gorimbo (1-2-0)
2023-02-18: L vs. [#187WW] A.J. Fletcher (10-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:37 of round 2
2022-06-26: W vs. [#746WW] Julio Rafael Rodrigues (13-8-0) via UD ()
2021-10-29: L vs. [#147WW] Handesson Ferreira (18-5-1) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Takashi Sato -112 50.00%
Elo K170 Takashi Sato 1496.54 +126.71 64.08%
Elo Modified Takashi Sato 1516.91 +92.35 59.97%
Glicko-1 Takashi Sato 1509.39 +113.06 65.72%
WHR Takashi Sato 1416.25 +68.17 57.72%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Takashi Sato 287, Themba Gorimbo 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Diego Ferreira
Highest Stored DD Rating: Angela Hill
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Diego Ferreira vs. Michael Johnson
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Angela Hill vs. Mackenzie Dern
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Very Low [*½]
Run Date: 2023-5-16

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