Fight Matrix Program – UFC on ABC 3: Blaydes vs. Aspinall (07-23-2022)

Jul 18, 2022
Jason

Heavyweight (265)
[#3] Curtis Blaydes (16-3-0, +110) vs. [#7] Tom Aspinall (12-2-0, -134)
Curtis Blaydes is the All-Time #26 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Curtis Blaydes (2-1-0)
2022-03-26: W vs. [#13HW+] Chris Daukaus (12-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:17 of round 2
2021-09-25: W vs. [#9HW+] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-02-20: L vs. [#6HW+] Derrick Lewis (26-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:26 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Tom Aspinall (3-0-0)
2022-03-19: W vs. [#5HW+] Alexander Volkov (35-10-0) via Submission (Straight Armbar) in 3:45 of round 1
2021-09-04: W vs. [#22HW+] Sergey Spivak (14-3-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 2:30 of round 1
2021-02-20: W vs. [#34HW+] Andrei Arlovski (34-20-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:09 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tom Aspinall -134 54.59%
Elo K170 Curtis Blaydes 2095.25 +199.82 71.36%
Elo Modified Curtis Blaydes 2077.66 +167.75 67.58%
Glicko-1 Curtis Blaydes 2161.78 +200.63 76.04%
WHR Curtis Blaydes 1952.40 +17.51 52.00%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Curtis Blaydes 119, Tom Aspinall 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#13] Jack Hermansson (22-7-0, -103) vs. [#25] Chris Curtis (29-8-0, -119)
Jack Hermansson is the All-Time #35 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jack Hermansson (1-2-0)
2022-02-05: L vs. [#12MW] Sean Strickland (25-4-0) via SD (49-46, 47-48, 49-46)
2021-05-22: W vs. [#30MW] Edmen Shahbazyan (11-3-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
2020-12-05: L vs. [#5MW] Marvin Vettori (18-5-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)

Last 3 Fights: Chris Curtis (3-0-0)
2022-06-25: W vs. [#73MW] Rodolfo Vieira (8-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-12-04: W vs. [#29MW] Brendan Allen (19-5-0) via TKO (Punches and Knees) in 1:58 of round 2
2021-11-06: W vs. [#66MW] Phil Hawes (12-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:27 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Chris Curtis -119 51.71%
Elo K170 Chris Curtis 1937.91 +33.25 53.79%
Elo Modified Jack Hermansson 1979.87 +29.30 53.20%
Glicko-1 Jack Hermansson 2042.43 +16.00 52.30%
WHR Jack Hermansson 1854.11 +0.82 50.09%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jack Hermansson 168, Chris Curtis 28
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#76] Paddy Pimblett (18-3-0, -257) vs. [#168] Jordan Leavitt (10-1-0, +206)

Last 3 Fights: Paddy Pimblett (3-0-0)
2022-03-19: W vs. [#203LW] Rodrigo Vargas (12-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:49 of round 1
2021-09-04: W vs. [#340LW] Luigi Vendramini (9-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:25 of round 1
2021-03-20: W vs. [*] Davide Martinez (8-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:37 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jordan Leavitt (2-1-0)
2022-04-16: W vs. [#172LW] Trey Ogden (15-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2021-12-18: W vs. [#607LW] Matt Sayles (8-4-0) via Submission (Inverted Triangle Choke) in 2:05 of round 2
2021-06-05: L vs. [#38LW] Claudio Puelles (12-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Paddy Pimblett -257 68.77%
Elo K170 Paddy Pimblett 1692.72 +36.24 54.13%
Elo Modified Paddy Pimblett 1736.53 +99.20 60.69%
Glicko-1 Paddy Pimblett 1813.27 +183.02 74.15%
WHR Paddy Pimblett 1748.76 +175.36 69.02%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Paddy Pimblett 126, Jordan Leavitt 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#22] Nikita Krylov (27-9-0, -193) vs. [*] Alexander Gustafsson (18-7-0, +157)
Alexander Gustafsson is the All-Time #22 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Nikita Krylov (1-2-0)
2022-03-19: L vs. [#13LHW] Paul Craig (16-4-1) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:57 of round 1
2021-02-27: L vs. [#7LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (17-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-03-14: W vs. [#18LHW] Johnny Walker (18-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Gustafsson (0-3-0)
2020-07-25: L vs. [#15HW+] Fabricio Werdum (24-9-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:30 of round 1
2019-06-01: L vs. [#12LHW] Anthony Smith (36-16-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:38 of round 4
2018-12-29: L vs. [*] Jon Jones (26-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:02 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Nikita Krylov -193 62.86%
Elo K170 Alexander Gustafsson 1814.82 +118.29 63.19%
Elo Modified Alexander Gustafsson 1868.52 +120.13 62.85%
Glicko-1 Alexander Gustafsson 1922.48 +111.87 65.57%
WHR Alexander Gustafsson 1755.16 +30.25 53.45%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nikita Krylov 126, Alexander Gustafsson 728
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alexander Gustafsson leads 2-0
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#29] Molly McCann (12-4-0, -377) vs. [#139] Hannah Goldy (6-2-0, +284)

Last 3 Fights: Molly McCann (2-1-0)
2022-03-19: W vs. [#59FLY] Luana Carolina (8-3-0) via KO (Spinning Back Elbow) in 1:52 of round 3
2021-09-04: W vs. [#95FLY] Ji Yeon Kim (9-5-2) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-02-06: L vs. [#60FLY] Lara Procopio (7-2-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Hannah Goldy (1-2-0)
2021-09-18: W vs. [#164FLY] Emily Whitmire (4-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:17 of round 1
2021-07-24: L vs. [#108SW] Diana Belbita (14-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-08-03: L vs. [*] Miranda Granger (7-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Molly McCann -377 75.21%
Elo K170 Molly McCann 1495.60 +262.78 76.86%
Elo Modified Molly McCann 1525.66 +233.31 73.52%
Glicko-1 Molly McCann 1511.47 +253.05 81.10%
WHR Molly McCann 1419.15 +265.91 77.11%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Molly McCann 126, Hannah Goldy 308
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#13] Paul Craig (16-4-1, +125) vs. [#17] Volkan Oezdemir (17-6-0, -154)
Volkan Oezdemir is the All-Time #35 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Paul Craig (3-0-0)
2022-03-19: W vs. [#22LHW] Nikita Krylov (27-9-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:57 of round 1
2021-06-12: W vs. [#14LHW] Jamahal Hill (11-1-0) via Technical Submission (Armbar) in 1:59 of round 1
2020-11-21: W vs. [#44LHW] Mauricio Rua (27-13-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Volkan Oezdemir (1-2-0)
2021-10-30: L vs. [#7LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (17-1-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-07-11: L vs. [#1LHW/#8P4P] Jiri Prochazka (29-3-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:49 of round 2
2019-12-21: W vs. [#9LHW] Aleksandar Rakic (14-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Volkan Oezdemir -154 57.70%
Elo K170 Paul Craig 1920.01 +159.29 67.43%
Elo Modified Paul Craig 1933.59 +186.77 69.37%
Glicko-1 Paul Craig 2022.06 +225.04 78.51%
WHR Paul Craig 1855.05 +95.90 60.78%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Paul Craig 126, Volkan Oezdemir 266
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Paul Craig leads 1-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#72] Damir Hadzovic (14-6-0, +246) vs. [#140] Marc Diakiese (15-5-0, -312)

Last 3 Fights: Damir Hadzovic (1-2-0)
2021-06-26: W vs. [#51LW] Yancy Medeiros (16-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-03-14: L vs. [#21LW] Renato Carneiro (16-5-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:44 of round 1
2019-06-01: L vs. [#96LW] Christos Giagos (19-10-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Marc Diakiese (1-2-0)
2022-03-26: W vs. [#263LW] Viacheslav Borshchev (6-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-11-13: L vs. [#91LW] Rafael Alves (20-10-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:48 of round 1
2020-07-18: L vs. [#7LW] Rafael Fiziev (12-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Marc Diakiese -312 72.37%
Elo K170 Damir Hadzovic 1665.30 +128.27 64.25%
Elo Modified Damir Hadzovic 1653.21 +70.77 57.68%
Glicko-1 Damir Hadzovic 1644.59 +49.53 57.08%
WHR Marc Diakiese 1624.49 +65.60 57.44%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Damir Hadzovic 392, Marc Diakiese 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#105] Charles Rosa (14-7-0, +354) vs. [*] Nathaniel Wood (17-5-0, -478)

Last 3 Fights: Charles Rosa (1-2-0)
2022-01-15: L vs. [#126FW] T.J. Brown (16-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-10-09: L vs. [#28FW] Damon Jackson (21-4-1) via UD (29-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-06-26: W vs. [#292LW] Justin Jaynes (16-9-0) via SD (30-27, 29-28, 28-29)

Last 3 Fights: Nathaniel Wood (1-2-0)
2020-10-24: L vs. [#30BW] Casey Kenney (16-4-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-07-25: W vs. [#57BW] John Castaneda (19-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-02-15: L vs. [#38BW] John Dodson (22-13-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:16 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Nathaniel Wood -478 78.96%
Elo K170 Nathaniel Wood 1654.21 +269.00 77.36%
Elo Modified Nathaniel Wood 1683.45 +324.69 80.55%
Glicko-1 Nathaniel Wood 1714.14 +363.40 89.01%
WHR Nathaniel Wood 1614.91 +259.15 76.56%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Rosa 189, Nathaniel Wood 637
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#60] Makwan Amirkhani (17-7-0, +183) vs. [#74] Jonathan Pearce (12-4-0, -229)

Last 3 Fights: Makwan Amirkhani (1-2-0)
2022-03-19: W vs. [#104FW] Mike Grundy (12-4-0) via Technical Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 0:57 of round 1
2021-10-30: L vs. [#43FW] Lerone Murphy (11-0-1) via KO (Knee) in 0:14 of round 2
2021-06-05: L vs. [#79FW] Kamuela Kirk (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jonathan Pearce (3-0-0)
2022-02-19: W vs. [#509FW] Christian Rodriguez (7-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2021-09-25: W vs. [#212LW] Omar Morales (10-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:31 of round 2
2020-11-28: W vs. [#145FW] Kai Kamaka III (9-5-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:28 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jonathan Pearce -229 66.32%
Elo K170 Jonathan Pearce 1608.17 +16.92 51.93%
Elo Modified Makwan Amirkhani 1646.26 +21.79 52.38%
Glicko-1 Makwan Amirkhani 1673.70 +25.94 53.73%
WHR Jonathan Pearce 1584.44 +36.05 54.11%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Makwan Amirkhani 126, Jonathan Pearce 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#34] Muhammad Mokaev (7-0-0, -491) vs. [#49] Charles Johnson (11-2-0, +362)

Last 3 Fights: Muhammad Mokaev (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2022-03-19: W vs. [#59FLY] Cody Durden (13-4-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:58 of round 1
2021-09-25: W vs. [#399BW] Blaine ODriscoll (9-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:36 of round 2
2021-06-04: NC vs. [#1077BW] Ibragim Navruzov (5-1-1)

Last 3 Fights: Charles Johnson (3-0-0)
2022-01-21: W vs. [#510FW] Carlos Mota (7-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:45 of round 5
2021-08-27: W vs. [#135FLY] Joao Antonio Camilo Neto (8-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:07 of round 2
2021-07-02: W vs. [#169FLY] Yuma Horiuchi (9-4-0) via SD (49-45, 48-46, 46-48)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Muhammad Mokaev -491 79.32%
Elo K170 Charles Johnson 1565.26 +17.82 52.03%
Elo Modified Muhammad Mokaev 1596.43 +25.19 52.75%
Glicko-1 Charles Johnson 1601.26 +16.20 52.33%
WHR Charles Johnson 1529.23 +55.24 56.28%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Muhammad Mokaev 126, Charles Johnson 183
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#104] Jai Herbert (11-4-0, -278) vs. [*] Kyle Nelson (13-4-0, +222)

Last 3 Fights: Jai Herbert (1-2-0)
2022-03-19: L vs. [#31LW] Ilia Topuria (12-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:07 of round 2
2021-10-23: W vs. [#175LW] Khama Worthy (18-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:47 of round 1
2021-06-26: L vs. [#21LW] Renato Carneiro (16-5-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:34 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Kyle Nelson (1-2-0)
2020-09-12: L vs. [#55FW] Billy Quarantillo (16-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:07 of round 3
2019-09-21: W vs. [#349LW] Marco Polo Reyes (10-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:36 of round 1
2019-05-04: L vs. [#607LW] Matt Sayles (8-4-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:16 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jai Herbert -278 70.30%
Elo K170 Jai Herbert 1593.90 +134.55 64.90%
Elo Modified Jai Herbert 1628.69 +164.38 67.25%
Glicko-1 Jai Herbert 1620.74 +182.85 74.13%
WHR Jai Herbert 1564.20 +168.95 68.39%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jai Herbert 126, Kyle Nelson 679
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#80] Mandy Bohm (7-1-0, -157) vs. [#84] Victoria Leonardo (8-4-0, +128)

Last 3 Fights: Mandy Bohm (2-1-0)
2021-09-18: L vs. [#42FLY] Ariane Lipski (14-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-10-01: W vs. [#69BW] Griet Eeckhout (6-4-1) via UD ()
2019-05-24: W vs. [*] Jade Masson-Wong (3-2-0) via SUB in 3:43 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Victoria Leonardo (1-2-0)
2021-08-07: L vs. [#25FLY] Melissa Gatto (8-1-2) via TKO (Arm Injury) in 5:00 of round 2
2021-01-20: L vs. [#7FLY] Manon Fiorot (9-1-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 4:08 of round 2
2020-11-17: W vs. [*] Chelsea Hackett (3-1-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:41 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mandy Bohm -157 58.20%
Elo K170 Mandy Bohm 1286.83 +53.09 56.04%
Elo Modified Mandy Bohm 1372.05 +90.47 59.77%
Glicko-1 Mandy Bohm 1316.39 +69.70 59.90%
WHR Victoria Leonardo 1271.70 +34.92 53.98%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mandy Bohm 308, Victoria Leonardo 350
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#57] Nicolas Dalby (19-5-1, -286) vs. [#119] Claudio Silva (14-3-0, +228)

Last 3 Fights: Nicolas Dalby (1-2-0)
2021-06-26: L vs. [#39WW] Tim Means (32-13-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-11-21: W vs. [#28WW] Daniel Rodriguez (16-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-07-25: L vs. [#137LW] Jesse Ronson (22-11-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:48 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Claudio Silva (1-2-0)
2021-05-22: L vs. [#85WW] Court McGee (21-11-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 30-26)
2020-10-17: L vs. [*] James Krause (28-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-08-03: W vs. [*] Cole Williams (11-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:35 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Nicolas Dalby -286 70.84%
Elo K170 Nicolas Dalby 1656.49 +43.86 54.99%
Elo Modified Nicolas Dalby 1702.13 +59.37 56.46%
Glicko-1 Nicolas Dalby 1722.54 +58.33 58.32%
WHR Nicolas Dalby 1626.77 +54.73 56.22%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nicolas Dalby 392, Claudio Silva 427
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#116] Mason Jones (11-1-0, -332) vs. [#158] Ludovit Klein (18-4-0, +262)

Last 3 Fights: Mason Jones (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2021-10-23: W vs. [#100FW] David Onama (10-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-06-05: NC vs. [#313LW] Alan Patrick (15-4-0)
2021-01-20: L vs. [*] Mike Davis (9-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Ludovit Klein (1-2-0)
2022-03-05: W vs. [#161LW] Devonte Smith (11-4-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)
2021-10-16: L vs. [#42FW] Nate Landwehr (15-4-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 2:22 of round 3
2021-05-08: L vs. [#141FW] Michael Trizano (9-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mason Jones -332 73.56%
Elo K170 Mason Jones 1642.07 +16.17 51.85%
Elo Modified Mason Jones 1682.63 +99.51 60.72%
Glicko-1 Mason Jones 1681.36 +107.82 65.04%
WHR Mason Jones 1648.65 +166.49 68.15%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mason Jones 273, Ludovit Klein 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Curtis Blaydes
Highest Stored DD Rating: Curtis Blaydes
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Curtis Blaydes vs. Tom Aspinall
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Curtis Blaydes vs. Tom Aspinall
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Very Good [***½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Fair [**½]
Run Date: 2022-7-17

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