Fight Matrix Program – Bellator 256: Bader vs. Machida 2 (2021-04-09)

6 Apr , 2021,
Jason

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#10] Lyoto Machida (26-10-0, +233) vs. [#11] Ryan Bader (27-6-0, -304)
Lyoto Machida is the All-Time #7 ranked Light Heavyweight and #18 ranked Absolute fighter.
Ryan Bader is the All-Time #17 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Lyoto Machida (1-2-0)
2020-09-11: L vs. [#5LHW] Phil Davis (22-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2019-09-28: L vs. [#3MW/#10P4P] Gegard Mousasi (47-7-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2019-06-14: W vs. [*] Chael Sonnen (31-17-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 0:22 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Bader (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2020-08-21: L vs. [#3LHW] Vadim Nemkov (13-2-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:02 of round 2
2019-09-07: NC vs. [#18HW+] Cheick Kongo (30-11-2)
2019-01-26: W vs. [*] Fedor Emelianenko (39-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:35 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ryan Bader -304 71.47%
Elo K170 Ryan Bader 2133.85 +226.68 73.80%
Elo Modified Ryan Bader 2107.76 +118.54 62.69%
Glicko-1 Ryan Bader 2140.41 +56.85 58.11%
WHR Ryan Bader 1952.72 +57.17 56.49%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lyoto Machida 210, Ryan Bader 231
Previous Match-up Record: Lyoto Machida leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ryan Bader leads 4-2
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#6] Liz Carmouche (14-7-0, -182) vs. [*] Vanessa Porto (22-8-0, +148)

Last 3 Fights: Liz Carmouche (2-1-0)
2020-09-12: W vs. [#48BW] DeAnna Bennett (10-7-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:17 of round 3
2019-08-10: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#3P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (20-3-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2019-02-23: W vs. [#12FW] Lucie Pudilova (11-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Vanessa Porto (3-0-0)
2019-11-01: W vs. [*] Karina Rodriguez (8-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-02-15: W vs. [#37FLY] Pearl Gonzalez (10-5-0) via TUD (39-37, 40-36, 39-37)
2018-01-13: W vs. [#11FW] Mariana Morais (16-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:19 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Liz Carmouche -182 61.54%
Elo K170 Liz Carmouche 1596.15 +33.76 53.85%
Elo Modified Liz Carmouche 1634.42 +50.05 55.46%
Glicko-1 Liz Carmouche 1630.93 +49.28 57.05%
WHR Liz Carmouche 1595.68 +49.63 55.65%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Liz Carmouche 209, Vanessa Porto 525
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#30] Jeremy Kennedy (16-2-0, -119) vs. [#48] Adam Borics (16-1-0, -108)

Last 3 Fights: Jeremy Kennedy (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2020-11-19: W vs. [#109FW] Matt Bessette (24-10-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
2019-10-17: NC vs. [#43FW] Daniel Pineda (27-14-0)
2019-10-17: W vs. [*] Luis Rafael Laurentino (34-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:24 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Adam Borics (2-1-0)
2020-10-29: W vs. [#486LW] Erick Sanchez (9-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-08-07: W vs. [#246LW] Mike Hamel (7-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2020-01-25: L vs. [#16FW] Darrion Caldwell (15-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:20 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jeremy Kennedy -119 51.13%
Elo K170 Jeremy Kennedy 1801.92 +23.26 52.65%
Elo Modified Jeremy Kennedy 1822.40 +83.03 58.99%
Glicko-1 Jeremy Kennedy 1861.84 +137.07 68.76%
WHR Jeremy Kennedy 1748.51 +109.29 62.23%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jeremy Kennedy 141, Adam Borics 162
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Featherweight (145)
[#8] Cat Zingano (11-4-0, -553) vs. [#47] Olivia Parker (4-1-0, +383)
Cat Zingano is the All-Time #33 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cat Zingano (2-1-0)
2020-09-11: W vs. [#22FW] Gabrielle Holloway (6-6-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 29-27)
2018-12-29: L vs. [#7FW] Megan Anderson (11-5-0) via TKO (Eye Injury) in 1:01 of round 1
2018-07-14: W vs. [#21BW] Marion Reneau (9-7-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Olivia Parker (2-1-0)
2020-07-02: L vs. [#17FW] Chelsea Chandler (3-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:05 of round 1
2020-01-10: W vs. [NA] Carolyn Biskup-Roe (2-7-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:40 of round 1
2019-07-12: W vs. [NA] Jamie Driver (2-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:22 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Cat Zingano -553 80.35%
Elo K170 Cat Zingano 1433.66 +322.01 81.32%
Elo Modified Cat Zingano 1502.72 +292.47 78.25%
Glicko-1 Cat Zingano 1497.98 +361.54 88.90%
WHR Cat Zingano 1507.45 +396.48 85.96%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cat Zingano 210, Olivia Parker 281
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[*] Goiti Yamauchi (25-4-0) vs. [*] Dan Moret (14-6-0)

Last 3 Fights: Goiti Yamauchi (3-0-0)
2019-12-29: W vs. [#96LW] Daron Cruickshank (23-13-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:11 of round 1
2019-10-04: W vs. [#76LW] Saad Awad (23-13-0) via Verbal Submission (Armbar) in 1:40 of round 1
2018-11-30: W vs. [#23FW] Daniel Weichel (40-12-0) via SD (30-27, 29-28, 27-30)

Last 3 Fights: Dan Moret (1-2-0)
2019-11-29: W vs. [*] Anton Kuivanen (26-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 2
2019-06-29: L vs. [#61LW] Jared Gordon (17-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-03-09: L vs. [*] Alex White (14-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Goiti Yamauchi 1910.04 +419.73 87.18%
Elo Modified Goiti Yamauchi 1859.26 +347.90 82.10%
Glicko-1 Goiti Yamauchi 1922.59 +398.46 90.83%
WHR Goiti Yamauchi 1824.11 +318.42 81.07%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Goiti Yamauchi 467, Dan Moret 497
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Featherweight (145)
[#4] Julia Budd (14-3-0, -364) vs. [#16] Dayana Silva (9-5-0, +273)

Last 3 Fights: Julia Budd (2-1-0)
2020-08-21: W vs. [#19FW] Jessy Miele (9-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-01-25: L vs. [#2FW/#4DD/#4P4P] Cristiane Justino (23-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:14 of round 4
2019-07-12: W vs. [*] Olga Rubin (6-2-0) via TKO (Body Kick and Punches) in 2:14 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Dayana Silva (2-1-0)
2020-08-23: W vs. [#124FLY] Tayna Lamounier Vieira (3-2-0) via UD ()
2020-03-01: L vs. [#11FW] Mariana Morais (16-10-0) via SD ()
2019-09-06: W vs. [#37BW] Sidy Rocha (12-8-2) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Julia Budd -364 74.52%
Elo K170 Julia Budd 1668.71 +400.91 86.19%
Elo Modified Julia Budd 1642.75 +261.07 75.82%
Glicko-1 Julia Budd 1617.89 +216.46 77.66%
WHR Julia Budd 1626.92 +235.49 74.57%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Julia Budd 231, Dayana Silva 229
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[*] Diana Avsaragova (2-0-0) vs. [NA] Tara Graff (1-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Diana Avsaragova (2-0-0)
2019-05-04: W vs. [NA] Ania Lurchenkova (0-1-0) via UD ()
2017-12-29: W vs. [NA] Alina Makarova (0-1-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:57 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Tara Graff (1-2-0)
2020-08-07: L vs. [#106FLY] Valerie Loureda (3-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 5:00 of round 2
2018-11-10: L vs. [*] Alibeth Rall Milliron (2-0-0) via TKO in 0:10 of round 3
2018-10-13: W vs. [NA] Marisol Ruelas (1-2-0) via TKO in 3:15 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Diana Avsaragova 706, Tara Graff 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#759] Isaiah William (4-3-0) vs. [#1459] Nainoa Dung (3-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Isaiah William (2-1-0)
2020-02-22: L vs. [#186LW] Jordan Leavitt (8-0-0) via UD ()
2019-11-16: W vs. [#1001LW] Juan Roman (3-2-0) via TKO in 4:15 of round 1
2019-09-21: W vs. [*] Moe Williams (5-5-0) via TKO in 4:04 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Nainoa Dung (1-2-0)
2020-08-07: L vs. [#1049LW] Charlie Campbell (2-2-0) via TKO (Leg Kicks) in 1:42 of round 2
2019-12-21: L vs. [*] Zach Zane (14-9-0) via UD ()
2019-07-12: W vs. [*] Brad Robison (3-1-0) via UD (28-27, 28-27, 28-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Isaiah William 1137.11 +104.65 61.73%
Elo Modified Nainoa Dung 1140.59 +1.29 50.14%
Glicko-1 Isaiah William 1169.39 +140.32 69.16%
WHR Isaiah William 1160.94 +138.27 65.29%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Isaiah William 412, Nainoa Dung 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#235] Jornel Lugo (5-0-0) vs. [#345] Cass Bell (5-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Jornel Lugo (3-0-0)
2020-11-12: W vs. [#801BW] Schyler Sootho (4-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-08-13: W vs. [#392BW] Cortavious Romious (4-1-0) via SD ()
2019-10-26: W vs. [*] John Douma (4-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Cass Bell (2-1-0)
2020-07-24: L vs. [#35BW] Raufeon Stots (15-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:24 of round 3
2019-12-20: W vs. [*] Pierre Daguzan (5-4-0) via UD ()
2019-09-07: W vs. [NA] Isaiah Rocha (1-1-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:21 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Jornel Lugo 1413.96 +107.84 62.07%
Elo Modified Jornel Lugo 1485.26 +94.03 60.15%
Glicko-1 Jornel Lugo 1345.22 +9.44 51.36%
WHR Cass Bell 1303.59 +39.93 54.55%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jornel Lugo 148, Cass Bell 259
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[*] Jeffrey Glossner (2-1-0) vs. [#1022] Jaylon Bates (1-0-0)

Last 3 Fights: Jeffrey Glossner (2-1-0)
2019-11-02: W vs. [NA] Jason Tipaldos (0-2-0) via TKO in 0:10 of round 1
2018-03-23: L vs. [#653FW] Anthony Jimenez (5-2-1) via UD ()
2018-01-12: W vs. [#512FW] Jose Avalos (5-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:40 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jaylon Bates (1-0-0)
2020-11-05: W vs. [NA] Joseph Supino (0-1-0) via UD (30-25, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Jeffrey Glossner 1097.59 +12.59 51.44%
Elo Modified Jeffrey Glossner 1163.18 +25.68 52.81%
Glicko-1 Jeffrey Glossner 1114.90 +36.34 55.21%
WHR Jeffrey Glossner 1115.43 +43.98 55.01%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jeffrey Glossner 524, Jaylon Bates 155
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[*] Tony Johnson (8-3-0) vs. [#220] Dalton Rosta (4-0-0)

Last 3 Fights: Tony Johnson (3-0-0)
2019-10-04: W vs. [*] Joe Schilling (4-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:07 of round 3
2019-06-25: W vs. [*] Alton Cunningham (7-2-0) via UD ()
2018-10-27: W vs. [*] Jaquis Williams (7-11-0) via MD ()

Last 3 Fights: Dalton Rosta (3-0-0)
2020-10-29: W vs. [#330MW] Ty Gwerder (5-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-08-07: W vs. [#684MW] Mark Gardner (1-2-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
2019-10-25: W vs. [NA] Claude Wilcox (1-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:23 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Tony Johnson 1361.78 +42.38 54.82%
Elo Modified Dalton Rosta 1407.73 +16.81 51.84%
Glicko-1 Tony Johnson 1394.79 +59.84 58.53%
WHR Tony Johnson 1456.07 +159.04 67.41%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tony Johnson 553, Dalton Rosta 162
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[*] John Douma (4-2-0) vs. [#1225] Will Smith (3-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: John Douma (1-2-0)
2019-10-26: L vs. [#235BW] Jornel Lugo (5-0-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-02-15: W vs. [#1372FW] Mike Kimbel (3-3-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:51 of round 1
2018-06-15: L vs. [*] Adam Acquaviva (6-4-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 2:47 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Will Smith (2-1-0)
2020-08-21: L vs. [#482FW] Lucas Brennan (4-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 2
2019-09-07: W vs. [NA] Aaron Reese (0-2-0) via UD ()
2019-07-20: W vs. [NA] Carl Langston (0-5-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 John Douma 1119.65 +133.00 64.74%
Elo Modified John Douma 1244.03 +255.51 75.37%
Glicko-1 John Douma 1149.32 +162.68 71.84%
WHR John Douma 1073.04 +85.17 59.61%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: John Douma 531, Will Smith 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Featherweight (145)
[*] Talita Nogueira (7-2-0) vs. [*] Jessica Borga (3-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Talita Nogueira (1-2-0)
2019-10-25: L vs. [#19FW] Jessy Miele (9-5-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
2018-07-13: L vs. [#4FW] Julia Budd (14-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:07 of round 3
2017-08-25: W vs. [#15FW] Amanda Bell (7-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:44 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Borga (2-1-0)
2019-09-07: W vs. [#40FW] Amber Leibrock (4-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:45 of round 1
2019-04-26: W vs. [#111FLY] Lucie Bertaud (3-2-0) via TKO in 3:36 of round 1
2019-01-19: L vs. [#40BW] Shanna Young (7-3-0) via Submission (Punches) in 3:24 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Talita Nogueira 1239.63 +95.06 60.69%
Elo Modified Talita Nogueira 1324.66 +158.74 66.71%
Glicko-1 Talita Nogueira 1318.55 +161.40 71.69%
WHR Talita Nogueira 1256.62 +122.49 63.64%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Talita Nogueira 532, Jessica Borga 580
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[*] Nathan Ghareeb (2-0-0) vs. [#1047] Cody Law (2-0-0)

Last 3 Fights: Nathan Ghareeb (2-0-0)
2019-10-25: W vs. [NA] Zach Johnson (0-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 1
2019-07-20: W vs. [NA] Brad Sustad (0-11-0) via TKO in 1:08 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Cody Law (2-0-0)
2020-12-10: W vs. [NA] Kenny Champion (2-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:44 of round 3
2020-10-29: W vs. [NA] Orlando Ortega (0-1-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:41 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Cody Law 1167.05 +71.69 58.12%
Elo Modified Cody Law 1263.50 +113.94 62.22%
Glicko-1 Cody Law 1190.62 +78.36 61.09%
WHR Cody Law 1135.10 +51.81 55.89%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nathan Ghareeb 532, Cody Law 120
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Lyoto Machida
Highest Stored DD Rating: Julia Budd
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Lyoto Machida vs. Ryan Bader
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Lyoto Machida vs. Ryan Bader
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Low [**]
Run Date: 2021-4-5