Fight Matrix Program – Bellator 256: Bader vs. Machida 2 (2021-04-09)

Apr 6, 2021
Jason

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#10] Lyoto Machida (26-10-0, +233) vs. [#11] Ryan Bader (27-6-0, -304)
Lyoto Machida is the All-Time #7 ranked Light Heavyweight and #18 ranked Absolute fighter.
Ryan Bader is the All-Time #17 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Lyoto Machida (1-2-0)
2020-09-11: L vs. [#5LHW] Phil Davis (22-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2019-09-28: L vs. [#3MW/#10P4P] Gegard Mousasi (47-7-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2019-06-14: W vs. [*] Chael Sonnen (31-17-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 0:22 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Bader (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2020-08-21: L vs. [#3LHW] Vadim Nemkov (13-2-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:02 of round 2
2019-09-07: NC vs. [#18HW+] Cheick Kongo (30-11-2)
2019-01-26: W vs. [*] Fedor Emelianenko (39-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:35 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ryan Bader -304 71.47%
Elo K170 Ryan Bader 2133.85 +226.68 73.80%
Elo Modified Ryan Bader 2107.76 +118.54 62.69%
Glicko-1 Ryan Bader 2140.41 +56.85 58.11%
WHR Ryan Bader 1952.72 +57.17 56.49%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lyoto Machida 210, Ryan Bader 231
Previous Match-up Record: Lyoto Machida leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ryan Bader leads 4-2
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#6] Liz Carmouche (14-7-0, -182) vs. [*] Vanessa Porto (22-8-0, +148)

Last 3 Fights: Liz Carmouche (2-1-0)
2020-09-12: W vs. [#48BW] DeAnna Bennett (10-7-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:17 of round 3
2019-08-10: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#3P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (20-3-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2019-02-23: W vs. [#12FW] Lucie Pudilova (11-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Vanessa Porto (3-0-0)
2019-11-01: W vs. [*] Karina Rodriguez (8-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-02-15: W vs. [#37FLY] Pearl Gonzalez (10-5-0) via TUD (39-37, 40-36, 39-37)
2018-01-13: W vs. [#11FW] Mariana Morais (16-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:19 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Liz Carmouche -182 61.54%
Elo K170 Liz Carmouche 1596.15 +33.76 53.85%
Elo Modified Liz Carmouche 1634.42 +50.05 55.46%
Glicko-1 Liz Carmouche 1630.93 +49.28 57.05%
WHR Liz Carmouche 1595.68 +49.63 55.65%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Liz Carmouche 209, Vanessa Porto 525
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#30] Jeremy Kennedy (16-2-0, -119) vs. [#48] Adam Borics (16-1-0, -108)

Last 3 Fights: Jeremy Kennedy (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2020-11-19: W vs. [#109FW] Matt Bessette (24-10-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
2019-10-17: NC vs. [#43FW] Daniel Pineda (27-14-0)
2019-10-17: W vs. [*] Luis Rafael Laurentino (34-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:24 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Adam Borics (2-1-0)
2020-10-29: W vs. [#486LW] Erick Sanchez (9-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-08-07: W vs. [#246LW] Mike Hamel (7-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2020-01-25: L vs. [#16FW] Darrion Caldwell (15-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:20 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jeremy Kennedy -119 51.13%
Elo K170 Jeremy Kennedy 1801.92 +23.26 52.65%
Elo Modified Jeremy Kennedy 1822.40 +83.03 58.99%
Glicko-1 Jeremy Kennedy 1861.84 +137.07 68.76%
WHR Jeremy Kennedy 1748.51 +109.29 62.23%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jeremy Kennedy 141, Adam Borics 162
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Featherweight (145)
[#8] Cat Zingano (11-4-0, -553) vs. [#47] Olivia Parker (4-1-0, +383)
Cat Zingano is the All-Time #33 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cat Zingano (2-1-0)
2020-09-11: W vs. [#22FW] Gabrielle Holloway (6-6-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 29-27)
2018-12-29: L vs. [#7FW] Megan Anderson (11-5-0) via TKO (Eye Injury) in 1:01 of round 1
2018-07-14: W vs. [#21BW] Marion Reneau (9-7-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Olivia Parker (2-1-0)
2020-07-02: L vs. [#17FW] Chelsea Chandler (3-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:05 of round 1
2020-01-10: W vs. [NA] Carolyn Biskup-Roe (2-7-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:40 of round 1
2019-07-12: W vs. [NA] Jamie Driver (2-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:22 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Cat Zingano -553 80.35%
Elo K170 Cat Zingano 1433.66 +322.01 81.32%
Elo Modified Cat Zingano 1502.72 +292.47 78.25%
Glicko-1 Cat Zingano 1497.98 +361.54 88.90%
WHR Cat Zingano 1507.45 +396.48 85.96%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cat Zingano 210, Olivia Parker 281
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[*] Goiti Yamauchi (25-4-0) vs. [*] Dan Moret (14-6-0)

Last 3 Fights: Goiti Yamauchi (3-0-0)
2019-12-29: W vs. [#96LW] Daron Cruickshank (23-13-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:11 of round 1
2019-10-04: W vs. [#76LW] Saad Awad (23-13-0) via Verbal Submission (Armbar) in 1:40 of round 1
2018-11-30: W vs. [#23FW] Daniel Weichel (40-12-0) via SD (30-27, 29-28, 27-30)

Last 3 Fights: Dan Moret (1-2-0)
2019-11-29: W vs. [*] Anton Kuivanen (26-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 2
2019-06-29: L vs. [#61LW] Jared Gordon (17-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-03-09: L vs. [*] Alex White (14-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Goiti Yamauchi 1910.04 +419.73 87.18%
Elo Modified Goiti Yamauchi 1859.26 +347.90 82.10%
Glicko-1 Goiti Yamauchi 1922.59 +398.46 90.83%
WHR Goiti Yamauchi 1824.11 +318.42 81.07%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Goiti Yamauchi 467, Dan Moret 497
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Featherweight (145)
[#4] Julia Budd (14-3-0, -364) vs. [#16] Dayana Silva (9-5-0, +273)

Last 3 Fights: Julia Budd (2-1-0)
2020-08-21: W vs. [#19FW] Jessy Miele (9-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-01-25: L vs. [#2FW/#4DD/#4P4P] Cristiane Justino (23-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:14 of round 4
2019-07-12: W vs. [*] Olga Rubin (6-2-0) via TKO (Body Kick and Punches) in 2:14 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Dayana Silva (2-1-0)
2020-08-23: W vs. [#124FLY] Tayna Lamounier Vieira (3-2-0) via UD ()
2020-03-01: L vs. [#11FW] Mariana Morais (16-10-0) via SD ()
2019-09-06: W vs. [#37BW] Sidy Rocha (12-8-2) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Julia Budd -364 74.52%
Elo K170 Julia Budd 1668.71 +400.91 86.19%
Elo Modified Julia Budd 1642.75 +261.07 75.82%
Glicko-1 Julia Budd 1617.89 +216.46 77.66%
WHR Julia Budd 1626.92 +235.49 74.57%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Julia Budd 231, Dayana Silva 229
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[*] Diana Avsaragova (2-0-0) vs. [NA] Tara Graff (1-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Diana Avsaragova (2-0-0)
2019-05-04: W vs. [NA] Ania Lurchenkova (0-1-0) via UD ()
2017-12-29: W vs. [NA] Alina Makarova (0-1-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:57 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Tara Graff (1-2-0)
2020-08-07: L vs. [#106FLY] Valerie Loureda (3-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 5:00 of round 2
2018-11-10: L vs. [*] Alibeth Rall Milliron (2-0-0) via TKO in 0:10 of round 3
2018-10-13: W vs. [NA] Marisol Ruelas (1-2-0) via TKO in 3:15 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Diana Avsaragova 706, Tara Graff 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#759] Isaiah William (4-3-0) vs. [#1459] Nainoa Dung (3-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Isaiah William (2-1-0)
2020-02-22: L vs. [#186LW] Jordan Leavitt (8-0-0) via UD ()
2019-11-16: W vs. [#1001LW] Juan Roman (3-2-0) via TKO in 4:15 of round 1
2019-09-21: W vs. [*] Moe Williams (5-5-0) via TKO in 4:04 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Nainoa Dung (1-2-0)
2020-08-07: L vs. [#1049LW] Charlie Campbell (2-2-0) via TKO (Leg Kicks) in 1:42 of round 2
2019-12-21: L vs. [*] Zach Zane (14-9-0) via UD ()
2019-07-12: W vs. [*] Brad Robison (3-1-0) via UD (28-27, 28-27, 28-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Isaiah William 1137.11 +104.65 61.73%
Elo Modified Nainoa Dung 1140.59 +1.29 50.14%
Glicko-1 Isaiah William 1169.39 +140.32 69.16%
WHR Isaiah William 1160.94 +138.27 65.29%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Isaiah William 412, Nainoa Dung 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#235] Jornel Lugo (5-0-0) vs. [#345] Cass Bell (5-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Jornel Lugo (3-0-0)
2020-11-12: W vs. [#801BW] Schyler Sootho (4-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-08-13: W vs. [#392BW] Cortavious Romious (4-1-0) via SD ()
2019-10-26: W vs. [*] John Douma (4-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Cass Bell (2-1-0)
2020-07-24: L vs. [#35BW] Raufeon Stots (15-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:24 of round 3
2019-12-20: W vs. [*] Pierre Daguzan (5-4-0) via UD ()
2019-09-07: W vs. [NA] Isaiah Rocha (1-1-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:21 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Jornel Lugo 1413.96 +107.84 62.07%
Elo Modified Jornel Lugo 1485.26 +94.03 60.15%
Glicko-1 Jornel Lugo 1345.22 +9.44 51.36%
WHR Cass Bell 1303.59 +39.93 54.55%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jornel Lugo 148, Cass Bell 259
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[*] Jeffrey Glossner (2-1-0) vs. [#1022] Jaylon Bates (1-0-0)

Last 3 Fights: Jeffrey Glossner (2-1-0)
2019-11-02: W vs. [NA] Jason Tipaldos (0-2-0) via TKO in 0:10 of round 1
2018-03-23: L vs. [#653FW] Anthony Jimenez (5-2-1) via UD ()
2018-01-12: W vs. [#512FW] Jose Avalos (5-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:40 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jaylon Bates (1-0-0)
2020-11-05: W vs. [NA] Joseph Supino (0-1-0) via UD (30-25, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Jeffrey Glossner 1097.59 +12.59 51.44%
Elo Modified Jeffrey Glossner 1163.18 +25.68 52.81%
Glicko-1 Jeffrey Glossner 1114.90 +36.34 55.21%
WHR Jeffrey Glossner 1115.43 +43.98 55.01%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jeffrey Glossner 524, Jaylon Bates 155
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[*] Tony Johnson (8-3-0) vs. [#220] Dalton Rosta (4-0-0)

Last 3 Fights: Tony Johnson (3-0-0)
2019-10-04: W vs. [*] Joe Schilling (4-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:07 of round 3
2019-06-25: W vs. [*] Alton Cunningham (7-2-0) via UD ()
2018-10-27: W vs. [*] Jaquis Williams (7-11-0) via MD ()

Last 3 Fights: Dalton Rosta (3-0-0)
2020-10-29: W vs. [#330MW] Ty Gwerder (5-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-08-07: W vs. [#684MW] Mark Gardner (1-2-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
2019-10-25: W vs. [NA] Claude Wilcox (1-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:23 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Tony Johnson 1361.78 +42.38 54.82%
Elo Modified Dalton Rosta 1407.73 +16.81 51.84%
Glicko-1 Tony Johnson 1394.79 +59.84 58.53%
WHR Tony Johnson 1456.07 +159.04 67.41%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tony Johnson 553, Dalton Rosta 162
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[*] John Douma (4-2-0) vs. [#1225] Will Smith (3-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: John Douma (1-2-0)
2019-10-26: L vs. [#235BW] Jornel Lugo (5-0-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-02-15: W vs. [#1372FW] Mike Kimbel (3-3-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:51 of round 1
2018-06-15: L vs. [*] Adam Acquaviva (6-4-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 2:47 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Will Smith (2-1-0)
2020-08-21: L vs. [#482FW] Lucas Brennan (4-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 2
2019-09-07: W vs. [NA] Aaron Reese (0-2-0) via UD ()
2019-07-20: W vs. [NA] Carl Langston (0-5-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 John Douma 1119.65 +133.00 64.74%
Elo Modified John Douma 1244.03 +255.51 75.37%
Glicko-1 John Douma 1149.32 +162.68 71.84%
WHR John Douma 1073.04 +85.17 59.61%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: John Douma 531, Will Smith 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Featherweight (145)
[*] Talita Nogueira (7-2-0) vs. [*] Jessica Borga (3-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Talita Nogueira (1-2-0)
2019-10-25: L vs. [#19FW] Jessy Miele (9-5-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
2018-07-13: L vs. [#4FW] Julia Budd (14-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:07 of round 3
2017-08-25: W vs. [#15FW] Amanda Bell (7-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:44 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Borga (2-1-0)
2019-09-07: W vs. [#40FW] Amber Leibrock (4-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:45 of round 1
2019-04-26: W vs. [#111FLY] Lucie Bertaud (3-2-0) via TKO in 3:36 of round 1
2019-01-19: L vs. [#40BW] Shanna Young (7-3-0) via Submission (Punches) in 3:24 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Talita Nogueira 1239.63 +95.06 60.69%
Elo Modified Talita Nogueira 1324.66 +158.74 66.71%
Glicko-1 Talita Nogueira 1318.55 +161.40 71.69%
WHR Talita Nogueira 1256.62 +122.49 63.64%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Talita Nogueira 532, Jessica Borga 580
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[*] Nathan Ghareeb (2-0-0) vs. [#1047] Cody Law (2-0-0)

Last 3 Fights: Nathan Ghareeb (2-0-0)
2019-10-25: W vs. [NA] Zach Johnson (0-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 1
2019-07-20: W vs. [NA] Brad Sustad (0-11-0) via TKO in 1:08 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Cody Law (2-0-0)
2020-12-10: W vs. [NA] Kenny Champion (2-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:44 of round 3
2020-10-29: W vs. [NA] Orlando Ortega (0-1-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:41 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Cody Law 1167.05 +71.69 58.12%
Elo Modified Cody Law 1263.50 +113.94 62.22%
Glicko-1 Cody Law 1190.62 +78.36 61.09%
WHR Cody Law 1135.10 +51.81 55.89%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nathan Ghareeb 532, Cody Law 120
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Lyoto Machida
Highest Stored DD Rating: Julia Budd
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Lyoto Machida vs. Ryan Bader
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Lyoto Machida vs. Ryan Bader
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Low [**]
Run Date: 2021-4-5

Leave A Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Before asking where a specific fighter is ranked or why they aren't ranked:


- We update the rankings once per week, usually on Sunday or Monday.

- Fighters who have not fought in 450 days or more ARE NOT RANKED UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.

- Use the "Fighter Search" option in the upper-right of the page. The fighter may be ranked in a different division.

- Most of the divisions have multiple pages beyond this one. See the clickable ranges above and below the ranking table.

Furthermore, we do not maintain the "next fight" data. This is gathered from Sherdog. Any issues regarding this data should be forwarded to them.