Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs Holland (2021-03-20)

Mar 15, 2021
Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#11] Kevin Holland (21-5-0, -176) vs. [#12] Derek Brunson (21-7-0, +144)
Derek Brunson is the All-Time #43 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Holland (3-0-0)
2020-12-12: W vs. [#14MW] Ronaldo Souza (26-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:45 of round 1
2020-10-31: W vs. [#251MW] Charlie Ontiveros (11-7-0) via TKO (Submission to Slam) in 2:39 of round 1
2020-09-19: W vs. [#50MW] Darren Stewart (12-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Derek Brunson (3-0-0)
2020-08-01: W vs. [#23MW] Edmen Shahbazyan (11-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:26 of round 3
2019-08-17: W vs. [#18MW] Ian Heinisch (14-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-05-04: W vs. [*] Elias Theodorou (18-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kevin Holland -176 60.87%
Elo K170 Derek Brunson 2044.18 +121.78 63.56%
Elo Modified Derek Brunson 2018.54 +143.02 65.16%
Glicko-1 Derek Brunson 2071.21 +99.83 63.98%
WHR Derek Brunson 1906.42 +111.18 62.43%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kevin Holland 98, Derek Brunson 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Kevin Holland leads 1-0
.

Welterweight (170)
[#72] Max Griffin (16-8-0, -169) vs. [#75] Kenan Song (16-5-0, +138)

Last 3 Fights: Max Griffin (1-2-0)
2020-11-07: W vs. [#277WW] Ramiz Brahimaj (8-3-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 2:03 of round 3
2020-03-07: L vs. [#46WW] Alex Oliveira (22-9-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-10-12: L vs. [#62WW] Alex Morono (18-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 29-27)

Last 3 Fights: Kenan Song (2-1-0)
2020-02-22: W vs. [#177WW] Callan Potter (18-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 1
2019-08-31: W vs. [*] Derrick Krantz (24-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-11-24: L vs. [#62WW] Alex Morono (18-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Max Griffin -169 59.92%
Elo K170 Kenan Song 1579.46 +40.43 54.61%
Elo Modified Max Griffin 1625.50 +37.30 54.07%
Glicko-1 Max Griffin 1676.40 +54.94 57.84%
WHR Max Griffin 1585.06 +39.69 54.52%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Max Griffin 133, Kenan Song 392
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#18] Jamahal Hill (9-0-0, -290) vs. [#25] Paul Craig (14-4-1, +230)

Last 3 Fights: Jamahal Hill (3-0-0)
2020-12-05: W vs. [#27LHW] Ovince St. Preux (25-15-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:37 of round 2
2020-05-30: W vs. [#43LHW] Klidson Abreu (15-5-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 1:51 of round 1
2020-01-25: W vs. [#100LHW] Darko Stosic (13-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Paul Craig (2-0-1)
2020-11-21: W vs. [#41LHW] Mauricio Rua (27-12-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 2
2020-07-25: W vs. [#123LHW] Gadzhimurad Antigulov (20-8-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:06 of round 1
2019-11-16: D vs. [#41LHW] Mauricio Rua (27-12-1) via Draw (Split) in 5:00 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jamahal Hill -290 71.04%
Elo K170 Paul Craig 1786.43 +50.43 55.74%
Elo Modified Paul Craig 1795.05 +21.44 52.35%
Glicko-1 Paul Craig 1845.28 +33.27 54.77%
WHR Jamahal Hill 1701.48 +40.32 54.59%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jamahal Hill 105, Paul Craig 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#27] Tai Tuivasa (11-4-0, -247) vs. [#106] Dontale Mayes (8-4-0, +196)

Last 3 Fights: Tai Tuivasa (1-2-0)
2020-10-24: W vs. [*] Stefan Struve (29-13-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 1
2019-10-05: L vs. [#31HW+] Sergey Spivak (12-2-0) via Technical Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:14 of round 2
2019-06-08: L vs. [#17HW+] Blagoy Ivanov (18-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Dontale Mayes (1-2-0)
2020-11-14: W vs. [#127HW+] Roque Martinez (15-7-2) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-05-16: L vs. [#105HW+] Rodrigo Nascimento Ferrei (8-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:05 of round 2
2019-10-26: L vs. [#4HW+] Ciryl Gane (8-0-0) via Submission (Heel Hook) in 4:46 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tai Tuivasa -247 67.81%
Elo K170 Tai Tuivasa 1600.01 +186.45 70.10%
Elo Modified Tai Tuivasa 1626.80 +121.78 63.02%
Glicko-1 Tai Tuivasa 1682.91 +218.29 77.85%
WHR Tai Tuivasa 1563.95 +111.64 62.48%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tai Tuivasa 147, Dontale Mayes 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[*] Gregor Gillespie (13-1-0, -221) vs. [#74] Brad Riddell (9-1-0, +176)

Last 3 Fights: Gregor Gillespie (2-1-0)
2019-11-02: L vs. [#11LW] Kevin Lee (18-6-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:47 of round 1
2019-01-19: W vs. [#83LW] Yancy Medeiros (15-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 2
2018-06-01: W vs. [#34LW] Vinc Pichel (13-2-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:06 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Brad Riddell (3-0-0)
2020-09-26: W vs. [#189LW] Alex da Silva Coelho (21-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-02-22: W vs. [#98LW] Magomed Mustafaev (14-4-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-82)
2019-10-05: W vs. [#392LW] Jamie Mullarkey (13-4-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 29-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Gregor Gillespie -221 65.52%
Elo K170 Gregor Gillespie 1832.67 +180.36 69.51%
Elo Modified Gregor Gillespie 1835.12 +196.31 70.25%
Glicko-1 Gregor Gillespie 1860.81 +225.90 78.59%
WHR Gregor Gillespie 1730.02 +169.64 68.46%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gregor Gillespie 504, Brad Riddell 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#12] Macy Chiasson (6-1-0, -215) vs. [#22] Marion Reneau (9-6-1, +173)

Last 3 Fights: Macy Chiasson (2-1-0)
2020-02-15: W vs. [#37BW] Shanna Young (7-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2019-09-28: L vs. [#15BW] Lina Lansberg (10-5-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-27)
2019-05-04: W vs. [#33BW] Sarah Moras (6-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:22 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Marion Reneau (0-3-0)
2020-06-20: L vs. [#3BW] Raquel Pennington (11-8-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-03-09: L vs. [#5BW] Yana Kunitskaya (14-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-07-14: L vs. [#8FW] Cat Zingano (11-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Macy Chiasson -215 65.07%
Elo K170 Macy Chiasson 1474.93 +183.38 69.80%
Elo Modified Macy Chiasson 1595.18 +263.82 76.04%
Glicko-1 Macy Chiasson 1507.65 +150.32 70.38%
WHR Macy Chiasson 1489.06 +113.05 62.63%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Macy Chiasson 399, Marion Reneau 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#67] Gustavo Lopez (12-5-0, +161) vs. [#89] Adrian Yanez (12-3-0, -198)

Last 3 Fights: Gustavo Lopez (2-1-0)
2020-11-07: W vs. [#188BW] Anthony Birchak (16-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:43 of round 1
2020-06-13: L vs. [#13BW] Merab Dvalishvili (12-4-0) via UD (30-25, 30-26, 30-26)
2019-08-23: W vs. [*] Joey Ruquet (7-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:45 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Adrian Yanez (3-0-0)
2020-10-31: W vs. [#471BW] Victor Rodriguez (5-3-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:46 of round 1
2020-08-11: W vs. [#342BW] Brady Huang (11-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:39 of round 1
2019-11-15: W vs. [#384BW] Kyle Estrada (10-6-0) via SD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Adrian Yanez -198 63.42%
Elo K170 Adrian Yanez 1560.32 +53.64 56.09%
Elo Modified Adrian Yanez 1538.43 +20.14 52.20%
Glicko-1 Adrian Yanez 1588.22 +21.83 53.14%
WHR Adrian Yanez 1507.70 +25.20 52.87%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gustavo Lopez 133, Adrian Yanez 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#26] Kay Hansen (7-4-0, +129) vs. [#55] Cheyanne Buys (5-1-0, -158)

Last 3 Fights: Kay Hansen (2-1-0)
2020-11-14: L vs. [#18SW] Cory McKenna (6-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-06-27: W vs. [#31SW] Jinh Yu Frey (10-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:26 of round 3
2020-03-06: W vs. [#90SW] Liana Ferreira Pirosin (7-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Cheyanne Buys (3-0-0)
2020-08-18: W vs. [#158SW] Hilarie Rose (4-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-11-15: W vs. [NA] Rebecca Adney (0-3-0) via UD ()
2019-06-01: W vs. [*] Lindsay Garbatt (6-6-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Cheyanne Buys -158 58.37%
Elo K170 Kay Hansen 1354.37 +66.30 57.51%
Elo Modified Kay Hansen 1402.04 +117.69 62.60%
Glicko-1 Kay Hansen 1417.71 +176.24 73.39%
WHR Kay Hansen 1339.50 +138.54 65.32%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kay Hansen 126, Cheyanne Buys 214
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Kay Hansen leads 1-0
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#17] Julia Avila (8-2-0, -345) vs. [#27] Julija Stoliarenko (9-4-2, +266)

Last 3 Fights: Julia Avila (2-1-0)
2020-09-12: L vs. [#11BW] Sijara Eubanks (6-6-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
2020-06-13: W vs. [#45FLY] Gina Mazany (7-4-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 0:22 of round 1
2019-07-06: W vs. [#7BW] Pannie Kianzad (14-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Julija Stoliarenko (2-1-0)
2020-08-08: L vs. [#5BW] Yana Kunitskaya (14-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-03-06: W vs. [#28BW] Lisa Verzosa (6-1-0) via SD (48-46, 46-49, 49-46)
2019-11-16: W vs. [NA] Maria Tatunashvili (2-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 0:20 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Julia Avila -345 73.94%
Elo K170 Julia Avila 1371.87 +4.80 50.55%
Elo Modified Julia Avila 1457.43 +81.86 58.87%
Glicko-1 Julia Avila 1408.70 +48.39 56.92%
WHR Julia Avila 1425.39 +79.71 59.00%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Julia Avila 189, Julija Stoliarenko 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#29] Trevin Giles (13-2-0, -160) vs. [#45] Dricus Du Plessis (15-2-0, +131)

Last 3 Fights: Trevin Giles (2-1-0)
2020-11-07: W vs. [#108MW] Bevon Lewis (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:26 of round 3
2020-02-08: W vs. [#25WW] James Krause (28-8-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-08-03: L vs. [#46MW] Gerald Meerschaert (31-14-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:49 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Dricus Du Plessis (3-0-0)
2020-10-10: W vs. [#117MW] Markus Perez (12-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:22 of round 1
2019-12-14: W vs. [*] Brendan Lesar (3-1-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:15 of round 1
2019-09-14: W vs. [#101WW] Joilton Lutterbach (34-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Trevin Giles -160 58.70%
Elo K170 Dricus Du Plessis 1756.00 +53.15 56.04%
Elo Modified Dricus Du Plessis 1791.53 +92.08 59.94%
Glicko-1 Dricus Du Plessis 1852.66 +131.30 68.05%
WHR Dricus Du Plessis 1814.00 +179.49 69.43%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Trevin Giles 133, Dricus Du Plessis 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#20] Leonardo Santos (18-3-1, +173) vs. [#32FW] Grant Dawson (16-1-0, -216)

Last 3 Fights: Leonardo Santos (3-0-0)
2020-07-11: W vs. [#67LW] Roman Bogatov (11-1-0) via UD (29-26, 29-26, 29-26)
2019-06-01: W vs. [*] Stevie Ray (23-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:17 of round 1
2016-10-08: W vs. [*] Adriano Martins (28-11-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Grant Dawson (3-0-0)
2020-07-18: W vs. [#127FW] Nad Narimani (12-4-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2020-02-29: W vs. [#44FW] Darrick Minner (26-11-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:38 of round 2
2019-05-18: W vs. [*] Michael Trizano (8-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:27 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Grant Dawson -216 65.10%
Elo K170 Leonardo Santos 2028.15 +200.52 71.42%
Elo Modified Leonardo Santos 1983.01 +144.42 65.30%
Glicko-1 Leonardo Santos 2029.55 +171.80 72.89%
WHR Leonardo Santos 1992.44 +179.52 69.43%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Leonardo Santos 252, Grant Dawson 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#47] J.P. Buys (9-2-0, -202) vs. [#104] Bruno Silva (10-6-2, +164)

Last 3 Fights: J.P. Buys (3-0-0)
2020-11-17: W vs. [#200FLY] Jacob Silva (6-5-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:54 of round 1
2019-11-15: W vs. [*] Cristian Rodriguez (4-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:13 of round 1
2019-04-13: W vs. [*] Luthando Biko (7-2-0) via TKO in 4:00 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Bruno Silva (0-3-0)
2020-10-10: L vs. [#24FLY] Tagir Ulanbekov (13-1-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2020-03-14: L vs. [#19FLY] David Dvorak (19-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-10-05: L vs. [#81BW] Khalid Taha (14-3-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:00 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds J.P. Buys -202 63.84%
Elo K170 J.P. Buys 1529.35 +210.22 72.32%
Elo Modified J.P. Buys 1487.29 +160.80 66.90%
Glicko-1 J.P. Buys 1524.74 +192.59 75.19%
WHR J.P. Buys 1435.24 +99.50 61.17%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: J.P. Buys 123, Bruno Silva 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#188] Anthony Birchak (16-7-0, -113) vs. [*] Johnny Eduardo (28-12-0, -112)

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Birchak (2-1-0)
2020-11-07: L vs. [#67BW] Gustavo Lopez (12-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:43 of round 1
2019-10-11: W vs. [#815FW] Erik Radleim (6-6-0) via SUB in 1:40 of round 1
2019-07-26: W vs. [*] Raphael Montini de Lima (6-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:34 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Johnny Eduardo (1-2-0)
2018-06-01: L vs. [#111FW] Nathaniel Wood (17-5-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:18 of round 2
2017-06-03: L vs. [*] Matthew Lopez (10-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:57 of round 1
2016-11-19: W vs. [*] Manny Gamburyan (15-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:46 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Anthony Birchak -113 50.10%
Elo K170 Johnny Eduardo 1508.53 +137.00 65.16%
Elo Modified Johnny Eduardo 1519.78 +77.11 58.36%
Glicko-1 Johnny Eduardo 1544.85 +85.29 62.03%
WHR Johnny Eduardo 1408.10 +0.89 50.10%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anthony Birchak 133, Johnny Eduardo 1023
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Kevin Holland
Highest Stored DD Rating: Kevin Holland
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Kevin Holland vs. Derek Brunson
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Kevin Holland vs. Derek Brunson
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Fair [**½]
Run Date: 2021-3-14

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