Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Khabib vs. Gaethje (2020-10-24)

19 Oct , 2020,
Jason

Lightweight Championship (155)
[#1/#3DD/#6P4P] Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0-0, -335) vs. [#2/#6DD/#8P4P] Justin Gaethje (22-2-0, +260)
Khabib Nurmagomedov is the All-Time #2 ranked Lightweight and #21 ranked Absolute fighter.
Justin Gaethje is the All-Time #16 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Khabib Nurmagomedov (3-0-0)
2019-09-07: W vs. [#3LW] Dustin Poirier (26-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:06 of round 3
2018-10-06: W vs. [#10WW] Conor McGregor (22-4-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 3:03 of round 4
2018-04-07: W vs. [#14LW] Al Iaquinta (15-6-1) via UD (50-44, 50-43, 50-43)

Last 3 Fights: Justin Gaethje (3-0-0)
2020-05-09: W vs. [#4LW] Tony Ferguson (25-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:39 of round 5
2019-09-14: W vs. [#24WW] Donald Cerrone (36-15-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:18 of round 1
2019-03-30: W vs. [#10FW] Edson Barboza (21-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:30 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Khabib Nurmagomedov -335 73.48%
Elo K170 Khabib Nurmagomedov 2424.56 +125.88 63.99%
Elo Modified Khabib Nurmagomedov 2355.97 +125.33 63.38%
Glicko-1 Khabib Nurmagomedov 2450.23 +98.16 63.76%
WHR Khabib Nurmagomedov 2342.23 +257.16 76.40%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Khabib Nurmagomedov 413, Justin Gaethje 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Khabib Nurmagomedov leads 3-2
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Middleweight (185)
[#2] Robert Whittaker (21-5-0, -107) vs. [#7] Jared Cannonier (13-4-0, -116)
Robert Whittaker is the All-Time #14 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Robert Whittaker (2-1-0)
2020-07-25: W vs. [#8MW] Darren Till (18-3-1) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-10-05: L vs. [#1MW/#7DD/#5P4P] Israel Adesanya (20-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:33 of round 2
2018-06-09: W vs. [#6MW] Yoel Romero (13-5-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Jared Cannonier (3-0-0)
2019-09-28: W vs. [#3MW] Jack Hermansson (21-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:27 of round 2
2019-05-11: W vs. [*] Anderson Silva (34-10-0) via TKO (Leg Injury) in 4:47 of round 1
2018-11-03: W vs. [#27MW] David Branch (22-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:29 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jared Cannonier -116 50.95%
Elo K170 Robert Whittaker 2254.15 +337.51 82.37%
Elo Modified Robert Whittaker 2182.03 +279.40 77.26%
Glicko-1 Robert Whittaker 2239.90 +208.78 76.89%
WHR Robert Whittaker 1971.69 +88.78 60.00%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robert Whittaker 91, Jared Cannonier 392
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#8] Alexander Volkov (31-8-0, -165) vs. [#19] Walt Harris (13-8-0, +136)
Alexander Volkov is the All-Time #40 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkov (1-2-0)
2020-06-20: L vs. [#3HW+] Curtis Blaydes (14-2-0) via UD (48-47, 48-46, 49-46)
2019-11-09: W vs. [#80HW+] Greg Hardy (6-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-10-06: L vs. [#4HW+] Derrick Lewis (24-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:49 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Walt Harris (2-1-0)
2020-05-16: L vs. [#6HW+] Alistair Overeem (47-18-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:00 of round 2
2019-07-20: W vs. [#10HW+] Alexey Oleynik (59-14-1) via KO (Knee and Punches) in 0:12 of round 1
2019-05-04: W vs. [#38HW+] Sergey Spivak (11-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:50 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexander Volkov -165 59.50%
Elo K170 Alexander Volkov 1896.67 +236.07 74.62%
Elo Modified Alexander Volkov 1919.77 +196.98 70.31%
Glicko-1 Alexander Volkov 1988.19 +187.71 74.66%
WHR Alexander Volkov 1826.62 +146.53 66.14%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkov 126, Walt Harris 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alexander Volkov leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#182] Phil Hawes (8-2-0, -270) vs. [#276] Jacob Malkoun (4-0-0, +216)

Last 3 Fights: Phil Hawes (3-0-0)
2020-09-08: W vs. [#459MW] Khadzhimurat Bestaev (10-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:18 of round 1
2020-01-19: W vs. [#636MW] Yuri Fraga (13-12-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:00 of round 1
2019-11-23: W vs. [#560MW] Dominic Schober (9-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:45 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jacob Malkoun (3-0-0)
2019-10-04: W vs. [#622MW] Sebastian Temesi (3-2-0) via UD ()
2019-07-12: W vs. [#368MW] Christophe Van Dijck (9-5-0) via TKO in of round 2
2018-10-26: W vs. [*] Ryan Heketa (5-5-0) via TKO (Strikes) in 1:32 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Phil Hawes -270 69.74%
Elo K170 Phil Hawes 1417.30 +72.74 58.23%
Elo Modified Jacob Malkoun 1467.50 +2.51 50.27%
Glicko-1 Phil Hawes 1499.28 +143.32 69.53%
WHR Phil Hawes 1476.28 +132.68 64.71%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Phil Hawes 46, Jacob Malkoun 386
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#8] Lauren Murphy (13-4-0) vs. [#55] Liliya Shakirova (8-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Lauren Murphy (3-0-0)
2020-06-20: W vs. [#12FLY] Roxanne Modafferi (25-17-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-02-08: W vs. [#24FLY] Andrea Lee (11-5-0) via SD (30-27, 29-28, 28-29)
2019-08-03: W vs. [#65FLY] Mara Romero Borella (12-9-0) via TKO (Knee and Elbows) in 1:46 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Liliya Shakirova (3-0-0)
2019-10-06: W vs. [NA] Aygul Abduvakhid (1-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:09 of round 2
2018-11-04: W vs. [*] Mariya Artyukhina (3-2-0) via SD ()
2018-09-23: W vs. [*] Aigul Khabirova (5-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:47 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Lauren Murphy 1581.64 +219.48 73.16%
Elo Modified Lauren Murphy 1536.58 +156.00 66.44%
Glicko-1 Lauren Murphy 1518.32 +187.92 74.68%
WHR Lauren Murphy 1484.82 +149.47 66.44%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lauren Murphy 126, Liliya Shakirova 384
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#17] Magomed Ankalaev (13-1-0, -281) vs. [#37] Ion Cutelaba (15-5-0, +224)

Last 3 Fights: Magomed Ankalaev (3-0-0)
2020-02-29: W vs. [#37LHW] Ion Cutelaba (15-5-0) via TKO (Punches and Kicks) in 0:38 of round 1
2019-11-09: W vs. [#67LHW] Dalcha Lungiambula (10-2-0) via KO (Front Kick and Punch) in 0:29 of round 3
2019-02-23: W vs. [#42LHW] Klidson Abreu (15-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Ion Cutelaba (1-2-0)
2020-02-29: L vs. [#17LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (13-1-0) via TKO (Punches and Kicks) in 0:38 of round 1
2019-09-28: W vs. [#47LHW] Khalil Rountree (8-5-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 2:35 of round 1
2019-04-27: L vs. [#6LHW] Glover Teixeira (31-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:37 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Magomed Ankalaev -281 70.49%
Elo K170 Magomed Ankalaev 1870.37 +257.73 76.45%
Elo Modified Magomed Ankalaev 1873.00 +234.64 73.64%
Glicko-1 Magomed Ankalaev 1932.96 +249.29 80.77%
WHR Magomed Ankalaev 1803.57 +206.03 71.94%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Magomed Ankalaev 238, Ion Cutelaba 238
Previous Match-up Record: Magomed Ankalaev leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#35] Stefan Struve (29-12-0, -119) vs. [#39] Tai Tuivasa (10-4-0, -104)

Last 3 Fights: Stefan Struve (1-2-0)
2019-12-07: L vs. [#26HW+] Ben Rothwell (38-13-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:57 of round 2
2019-02-23: W vs. [#55HW+] Marcos Rogerio de Lima (17-6-1) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:21 of round 2
2018-07-22: L vs. [#12HW+] Marcin Tybura (20-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Tai Tuivasa (0-3-0)
2019-10-05: L vs. [#38HW+] Sergey Spivak (11-2-0) via Technical Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:14 of round 2
2019-06-08: L vs. [#17HW+] Blagoy Ivanov (18-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-12-01: L vs. [#7HW+] Junior dos Santos (21-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:30 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Stefan Struve -119 51.59%
Elo K170 Stefan Struve 1559.10 +59.20 56.72%
Elo Modified Stefan Struve 1603.18 +70.06 57.61%
Glicko-1 Stefan Struve 1648.83 +81.85 61.57%
WHR Stefan Struve 1544.21 +78.44 58.87%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Stefan Struve 322, Tai Tuivasa 385
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Tai Tuivasa leads 1-0
.

Welterweight (170)
[#36] Alex Oliveira (22-8-1, -159) vs. [*] Shavkat Rakhmonov (12-0-0, +133)

Last 3 Fights: Alex Oliveira (2-1-0)
2020-07-25: W vs. [#244WW] Peter Sobotta (17-7-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-03-07: W vs. [#71WW] Max Griffin (15-8-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-09-28: L vs. [#65WW] Nicolas Dalby (18-4-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Shavkat Rakhmonov (3-0-0)
2019-06-28: W vs. [#190MW] Tiago Varejao Lacerda (28-8-1) via TKO in 4:50 of round 1
2019-03-30: W vs. [#139MW] Danila Prikaza (13-4-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:16 of round 2
2018-12-08: W vs. [#943LW] Rinat Sayakbaev (13-7-1) via TKO (Retirement) in of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alex Oliveira -159 58.85%
Elo K170 Alex Oliveira 1788.51 +53.93 56.13%
Elo Modified Shavkat Rakhmonov 1795.48 +34.53 53.77%
Glicko-1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 1846.11 +63.08 58.98%
WHR Shavkat Rakhmonov 1809.35 +141.54 65.63%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex Oliveira 91, Shavkat Rakhmonov 484
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#34] Sam Alvey (33-14-0, +279) vs. [#49] Da Un Jung (13-2-0, -363)

Last 3 Fights: Sam Alvey (0-3-0)
2020-05-09: L vs. [#26LHW] Ryan Spann (18-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-07-20: L vs. [#42LHW] Klidson Abreu (15-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-02-09: L vs. [#21LHW] Jimmy Crute (12-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:49 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Da Un Jung (3-0-0)
2019-12-21: W vs. [#81LHW] Mike Rodriguez (11-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1
2019-08-31: W vs. [#89LHW] Khadis Ibragimov (8-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:00 of round 3
2019-03-02: W vs. [#243HW+] Sasa Milinkovic (7-3-0) via TKO in 0:58 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Da Un Jung -363 74.81%
Elo K170 Da Un Jung 1594.96 +78.53 58.88%
Elo Modified Da Un Jung 1602.25 +28.07 53.07%
Glicko-1 Da Un Jung 1662.25 +43.28 56.20%
WHR Da Un Jung 1555.83 +38.34 54.37%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sam Alvey 168, Da Un Jung 308
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#23] Miranda Maverick (7-2-0, -359) vs. [#60] Liana Jojua (8-3-0, +278)

Last 3 Fights: Miranda Maverick (3-0-0)
2020-02-07: W vs. [#42FLY] Pearl Gonzalez (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2019-09-06: W vs. [#56BW] DeAnna Bennett (10-7-1) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 3:38 of round 3
2019-07-13: W vs. [*] Heather Walker-Leahy (2-1-0) via SUB in 1:38 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Liana Jojua (2-1-0)
2020-07-15: W vs. [#132FLY] Diana Belbita (13-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:47 of round 1
2019-09-07: L vs. [#28BW] Sarah Moras (6-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:26 of round 3
2018-02-22: W vs. [*] Marina Mokhnatkina (4-2-0) via MD (48-47, 47-47, 49-45)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Miranda Maverick -359 74.72%
Elo K170 Miranda Maverick 1432.03 +137.26 65.18%
Elo Modified Miranda Maverick 1481.67 +160.95 66.92%
Glicko-1 Miranda Maverick 1441.70 +137.73 68.84%
WHR Miranda Maverick 1394.13 +154.43 66.94%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Miranda Maverick 260, Liana Jojua 101
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (140)
[#33BW] Nathaniel Wood (17-4-0, +161) vs. [#65] Casey Kenney (15-2-1, -191)

Last 3 Fights: Nathaniel Wood (2-1-0)
2020-07-25: W vs. [#132BW] John Castaneda (17-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-02-15: L vs. [#23BW] John Dodson (21-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:16 of round 3
2019-03-16: W vs. [#90BW] Jose Alberto Quinonez (8-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:46 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Casey Kenney (2-1-0)
2020-10-03: W vs. [#153BW] Heili Alateng (14-8-1) via UD (30-25, 30-27, 30-26)
2020-05-30: W vs. [#144BW] Louis Smolka (16-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:03 of round 1
2020-02-15: L vs. [#12BW] Merab Dvalishvili (12-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-25, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Casey Kenney -191 63.14%
Elo K170 Casey Kenney 1778.34 +52.24 55.94%
Elo Modified Casey Kenney 1782.10 +46.66 55.09%
Glicko-1 Casey Kenney 1805.32 +18.38 52.64%
WHR Casey Kenney 1693.85 +49.94 55.68%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nathaniel Wood 91, Casey Kenney 21
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#110] Alexander Yakovlev (25-10-1, +167) vs. [#111] Joel Alvarez (17-2-0, -199)

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Yakovlev (1-2-0)
2019-11-09: L vs. [#105LW] Roosevelt Roberts (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-04-20: W vs. [#219LW] Alex da Silva Coelho (21-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:10 of round 2
2016-11-19: L vs. [#36MW] Zak Cummings (24-7-0) via SUB in 4:02 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Joel Alvarez (2-1-0)
2020-07-18: W vs. [*] Joseph Duffy (16-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:25 of round 1
2019-06-01: W vs. [#536LW] Danilo Belluardo (12-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:22 of round 2
2019-02-23: L vs. [#48LW] Damir Ismagulov (19-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joel Alvarez -199 63.99%
Elo K170 Joel Alvarez 1714.59 +160.60 67.56%
Elo Modified Joel Alvarez 1726.30 +157.42 66.58%
Glicko-1 Joel Alvarez 1804.68 +179.99 73.81%
WHR Joel Alvarez 1700.35 +154.10 66.91%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Yakovlev 350, Joel Alvarez 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Khabib Nurmagomedov
Highest Stored DD Rating: Khabib Nurmagomedov
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Large [***½]
Run Date: 2020-10-20