There is only one realistic argument against making this fight and it goes something like this:
George St. Pierre hasn’t cleaned out the Welterweight division
or
This fight will be a major set back for the Welterweight division
To conclude that there will always be a #1 contender in a division with two or more fighters, statistics are not needed. And while Hendricks is a valid #1 contender, Silva does not really have one. If we wait around until both divisions have no strong top contender, we will be waiting a while. And as you will read below, we cannot wait much longer.
Most people assume that Silva will win this fight or acknowledge his time in the sport is coming to a close, so notice it is only GSP who is mentioned in the aforementioned statements. In a projected May 2013 fight, consider GSP will have turned or will just be turning 32 years old, while Silva will have turned 38. Keep that in mind and review the following graph:
While I would agree with arguments that state matchmaking has a lot to do with the above graph, it doesn’t bode well for older fighters when you consider that fighters in their late 30s and older only win at about a 50% clip. Also, consider that only 27 fighters have held an undefeated streak longer than Silva’s present (17). Oh yeah, I also forgot to mention that these are the top two fighters in MMA history and the winner will go down as the most dominant in MMA history.
Now, let’s discuss weight. On average, a male fighter’s expected performance will increase nearly 20% when moving down a division, while the opposite tends to occur when moving up. So, who performs notably worse than this?
- Fighters excessively losing weight to drop down in division.
- Fighters entering a weight division for the first time.
Before considering the performance difference, keep in mind that Silva currently holds (approximately) a 10% rating point advantage. BUT, Silva has more or less hit his point ceiling, as he finishes opponents, something GSP does not do. In other words, his performances could be better. On the flip side, GSP missed time and as such, missed opportunities to boost his point balance.
Now, the idea has been tossed around that Silva should go down to 170 so it becomes a legit Welterweight fight. If Silva goes down to 170, does he satisfy both of those two notable points? Sort of. He has fought at 176 pounds or below, 10 times — at 175 as recently as January 2006 in his DQ loss against Yushin Okami, so it’s not new territory. His records in these 10 fights is 8-2. The last time he was at 170 or below though, was in August 2001 against Hayato Sakurai — which was over 11 years ago. GSP on the other hand, has fought all of his career fights at 170. 170 seems completely out of the question, or does it?
It has been rumored that Anderson Silva carries about 19% body fat at 213 pounds, while GSP has been measured (the video is on YouTube) at 7.7%, likely with a weight in the neighborhood of 190. This is a comparable lean body mass, with GSP likely having a weight cutting advantage due to increased muscularity. Silva has a long, lanky build (more skeleton, less muscle — muscle can lose water much easier than the rest of the body, except the bladder, of course).
So what does this rambling all mean, in my opinion?
Unless GSP is struggling to make weight, jumping all the way up to 185 makes Silva about a -180 betting favorite (64% chance of winning). If they fight in the middle (178?), I’d place Silva at about -125 (55%). I think it’s an even fight at about 175. Any lower and I think Silva incurs adverse health effects — GSP is probably the favorite. Whomever has the home advantage (should there be one) add about 2% to that fighter’s chances.