Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana (2020-10-03)

28 Sep , 2020,
Jason

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#2/#10DD] Holly Holm (13-5-0, -124) vs. [#5] Irene Aldana (12-5-0, +101)
Holly Holm is the All-Time #17 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Holly Holm (2-1-0)
2020-01-18: W vs. [#4BW] Raquel Pennington (11-8-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-07-06: L vs. [#1FW/#1DD/#1P4P] Amanda Nunes (20-4-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 4:10 of round 1
2018-06-09: W vs. [#7FW] Megan Anderson (11-4-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Irene Aldana (2-1-0)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#8BW] Ketlen Vieira (11-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:51 of round 1
2019-09-21: W vs. [#39BW] Vanessa Melo (10-8-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2019-07-20: L vs. [#4BW] Raquel Pennington (11-8-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Holly Holm -124 52.66%
Elo K170 Holly Holm 1627.89 +13.34 51.52%
Elo Modified Irene Aldana 1640.13 +26.90 52.94%
Glicko-1 Irene Aldana 1664.01 +49.69 57.10%
WHR Holly Holm 1692.26 +103.50 61.61%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Holly Holm 259, Irene Aldana 294
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Holly Holm leads 3-1
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Heavyweight (265)
[#124] Carlos Felipe (8-1-0, +212) vs. [#174] Yorgan De Castro (6-1-0, -265)

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Felipe (2-1-0)
2020-07-18: L vs. [#38HW+] Sergey Spivak (11-2-0) via MD (29-27, 28-28, 29-27)
2017-05-20: W vs. [*] Francisco Sandro da Silva (8-4-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:07 of round 1
2017-04-01: W vs. [*] Isaias Silva (2-1-0) via TKO in 0:41 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Yorgan De Castro (2-1-0)
2020-05-09: L vs. [#81HW+] Greg Hardy (6-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-10-05: W vs. [#160HW+] Justin Tafa (4-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:10 of round 1
2019-06-18: W vs. [*] Sanford Alton Meeks (3-1-0) via TKO (Leg Kick and Punches) in 4:45 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Yorgan De Castro -265 69.37%
Elo K170 Carlos Felipe 1395.19 +100.52 61.28%
Elo Modified Carlos Felipe 1457.72 +72.76 57.90%
Glicko-1 Carlos Felipe 1500.38 +144.50 69.67%
WHR Carlos Felipe 1431.40 +162.90 67.79%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Carlos Felipe 77, Yorgan De Castro 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#1/#9DD/#9P4P] Germaine de Randamie (9-4-0, -107) vs. [#7] Julianna Pena (9-3-0, -116)
Germaine de Randamie is the All-Time #27 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Germaine de Randamie (2-1-0)
2019-12-14: L vs. [#1FW/#1DD/#1P4P] Amanda Nunes (20-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-45, 49-44)
2019-07-13: W vs. [#3BW] Aspen Ladd (9-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:16 of round 1
2018-11-10: W vs. [#4BW] Raquel Pennington (11-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Julianna Pena (2-1-0)
2019-07-13: W vs. [#23BW] Nicco Montano (4-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
2017-01-28: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#3P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (19-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:29 of round 2
2016-07-09: W vs. [#8FW] Cat Zingano (11-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Julianna Pena -116 50.95%
Elo K170 Germaine de Randamie 1683.40 +45.38 55.16%
Elo Modified Germaine de Randamie 1693.92 +40.84 54.46%
Glicko-1 Germaine de Randamie 1694.46 +47.30 56.77%
WHR Germaine de Randamie 1760.38 +161.16 67.62%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Germaine de Randamie 294, Julianna Pena 448
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#52] Tom Breese (11-2-0) vs. [#82] K.B. Bhullar (8-0-0)

Last 3 Fights: Tom Breese (1-2-0)
2020-02-29: L vs. [#24MW] Brendan Allen (15-3-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:47 of round 1
2018-05-27: W vs. [*] Daniel Kelly (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:33 of round 1
2016-06-04: L vs. [*] Sean Strickland (20-3-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: K.B. Bhullar (3-0-0)
2019-09-27: W vs. [#107MW] Matt Dwyer (11-7-0) via UD ()
2019-05-24: W vs. [*] Cody Krahn (16-14-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 1
2019-03-01: W vs. [#535WW] Derek Boyle (14-13-0) via Anaconda Choke in 4:50 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Tom Breese 1670.86 +209.80 72.28%
Elo Modified Tom Breese 1735.92 +246.97 74.67%
Glicko-1 Tom Breese 1776.98 +257.34 81.48%
WHR Tom Breese 1667.78 +115.62 62.91%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tom Breese 217, K.B. Bhullar 372
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#60] Dusko Todorovic (9-0-0, -302) vs. [#195] Dequan Townsend (22-11-0, +239)

Last 3 Fights: Dusko Todorovic (3-0-0)
2019-08-27: W vs. [#92MW] Teddy Ash (14-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-12-01: W vs. [#123WW] Michel Pereira (25-11-0) via TKO in 4:32 of round 1
2018-07-21: W vs. [*] Kazuo Takahashi (30-28-3) via TKO (Punches) in 1:41 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Dequan Townsend (0-3-0)
2020-02-15: L vs. [#42LHW] Devin Clark (12-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)
2020-01-25: L vs. [#110MW] Bevon Lewis (7-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-06-29: L vs. [#70LHW] Dalcha Lungiambula (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 0:42 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dusko Todorovic -302 71.80%
Elo K170 Dusko Todorovic 1656.27 +379.62 85.00%
Elo Modified Dusko Todorovic 1703.22 +401.10 85.27%
Glicko-1 Dusko Todorovic 1711.23 +426.45 92.09%
WHR Dusko Todorovic 1649.23 +376.13 84.79%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dusko Todorovic 403, Dequan Townsend 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[*] Carlos Condit (30-13-0, -101) vs. [#102] Court McGee (19-9-0, -122)
Carlos Condit is the All-Time #7 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Condit (0-3-0)
2018-12-29: L vs. [#10WW] Michael Chiesa (17-4-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 0:56 of round 2
2018-04-14: L vs. [#36WW] Alex Oliveira (22-8-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:17 of round 2
2017-12-30: L vs. [#9WW] Neil Magny (24-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Court McGee (1-2-0)
2019-10-18: L vs. [#34WW] Sean Brady (13-0-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-04-27: L vs. [#80WW] Dhiego Lima (15-7-0) via SD (28-29, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-10-27: W vs. [#142MW] Alex Garcia (15-8-0) via UD (29-28, 30-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Court McGee -122 52.23%
Elo K170 Carlos Condit 1692.60 +179.72 69.44%
Elo Modified Carlos Condit 1702.77 +138.56 64.72%
Glicko-1 Carlos Condit 1735.39 +147.11 69.99%
WHR Carlos Condit 1558.45 +29.51 53.36%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Carlos Condit 644, Court McGee 351
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#60] Charles Jourdain (10-3-0, -412) vs. [#299] Joshua Culibao (9-1-0, +313)

Last 3 Fights: Charles Jourdain (1-2-0)
2020-06-13: L vs. [#26FW] Andre Fili (21-7-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-12-21: W vs. [#183FW] Doo Ho Choi (14-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:32 of round 2
2019-05-18: L vs. [*] Desmond Green (23-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Joshua Culibao (2-1-0)
2020-02-22: L vs. [#163WW] Jalin Turner (10-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:01 of round 2
2019-03-01: W vs. [*] Josh Payne (8-9-0) via TKO in 3:02 of round 1
2018-11-10: W vs. [#735FW] Rodolfo Marques (25-15-1) via TKO in of round 4

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Charles Jourdain -412 76.87%
Elo K170 Charles Jourdain 1571.14 +150.24 66.52%
Elo Modified Charles Jourdain 1636.33 +234.72 73.64%
Glicko-1 Charles Jourdain 1710.73 +355.88 88.58%
WHR Charles Jourdain 1584.11 +304.79 80.10%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Jourdain 112, Joshua Culibao 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#75] Kyler Phillips (7-1-0) vs. [#157] Cameron Else (9-4-0)

Last 3 Fights: Kyler Phillips (2-1-0)
2020-02-29: W vs. [#232BW] Gabriel Silva (8-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-02-01: W vs. [*] Emeka Ifekandu (6-3-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:30 of round 1
2018-10-20: L vs. [#26BW] Victor Henry (20-4-0) via SD ()

Last 3 Fights: Cameron Else (3-0-0)
2020-02-08: W vs. [NA] Brad Evans (3-16-0) via SUB in 1:30 of round 1
2019-07-25: W vs. [#267BW] Aidan James (4-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:59 of round 1
2019-06-15: W vs. [NA] Tom Major (0-1-0) via TKO in 1:00 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Kyler Phillips 1475.25 +102.91 61.54%
Elo Modified Kyler Phillips 1582.72 +167.91 67.59%
Glicko-1 Kyler Phillips 1587.54 +162.84 71.85%
WHR Kyler Phillips 1585.46 +198.09 71.20%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kyler Phillips 217, Cameron Else 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#119] Jordan Williams (9-3-0, -152) vs. [#168] Nassourdine Imavov (8-2-0, +126)

Last 3 Fights: Jordan Williams (2-1-0)
2020-09-15: W vs. [#201MW] Gregory Rodrigues (7-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:19 of round 1
2019-07-23: L vs. [#160WW] Ramazan Kuramagomedov (8-0-0) via SD (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-04-27: W vs. [*] Diego Herzog (4-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Nassourdine Imavov (3-0-0)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#304MW] Jonathan Meunier (9-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:27 of round 1
2019-09-28: W vs. [#700WW] Mateusz Gluch (8-6-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 0:00 of round 1
2019-07-26: W vs. [#911MW] Francesco Demontis (1-3-0) via Submission in 2:26 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jordan Williams -152 57.68%
Elo K170 Nassourdine Imavov 1527.93 +88.39 59.96%
Elo Modified Nassourdine Imavov 1554.17 +36.01 53.93%
Glicko-1 Nassourdine Imavov 1585.97 +28.61 54.11%
WHR Jordan Williams 1572.31 +62.33 57.07%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jordan Williams 18, Nassourdine Imavov 294
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#44] Jinh Yu Frey (9-5-0) vs. [#96] Konklak Suphisara (4-2-0)
Jinh Yu Frey is the All-Time #38 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jinh Yu Frey (1-2-0)
2020-06-27: L vs. [#20SW] Kay Hansen (7-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:26 of round 3
2020-02-07: W vs. [#11AW] Ashley Cummins (7-6-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-06-02: L vs. [#2AW/#8DD/#7P4P] Ayaka Hamasaki (20-3-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Konklak Suphisara (2-1-0)
2020-02-22: L vs. [#15SW] Angela Hill (12-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-10-26: W vs. [#121SW] Aleksandra Albu (3-2-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
2019-06-07: W vs. [*] Monique Adriane (4-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Jinh Yu Frey 1343.42 +147.07 66.19%
Elo Modified Jinh Yu Frey 1368.77 +192.00 69.86%
Glicko-1 Jinh Yu Frey 1332.10 +196.93 75.65%
WHR Jinh Yu Frey 1218.31 +43.74 54.98%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jinh Yu Frey 98, Konklak Suphisara 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#37] Casey Kenney (14-2-1, -265) vs. [#136] Heili Alateng (14-7-1, +213)

Last 3 Fights: Casey Kenney (2-1-0)
2020-05-30: W vs. [#146BW] Louis Smolka (16-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:03 of round 1
2020-02-15: L vs. [#12BW] Merab Dvalishvili (12-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-25, 29-28)
2019-08-17: W vs. [#157LW] Manny Bermudez (15-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Heili Alateng (3-0-0)
2019-12-21: W vs. [#75FLY] Ryan Benoit (10-7-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-08-31: W vs. [#293BW] Danaa Batgerel (8-2-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
2018-05-12: W vs. [*] Jong Hyun Kwak (6-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:40 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Casey Kenney -265 69.44%
Elo K170 Casey Kenney 1731.68 +168.78 68.38%
Elo Modified Casey Kenney 1748.31 +221.70 72.52%
Glicko-1 Casey Kenney 1779.08 +273.74 82.86%
WHR Casey Kenney 1662.62 +218.66 73.08%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Casey Kenney 126, Heili Alateng 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[*] Jessin Ayari (16-5-0, +100) vs. [*] Luigi Vendramini (8-1-0, -124)

Last 3 Fights: Jessin Ayari (1-2-0)
2018-10-27: L vs. [#38LW] Stevie Ray (23-9-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2017-05-28: L vs. [#8MW] Darren Till (18-3-1) via UD (30-27, 29-27, 30-27)
2016-09-03: W vs. [*] Jim Wallhead (31-11-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Luigi Vendramini (2-1-0)
2018-09-22: L vs. [#31WW] Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (22-7-0) via KO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 1:20 of round 2
2018-09-07: W vs. [*] Lucas Eurico (7-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:57 of round 1
2017-08-19: W vs. [#882FW] Adriano Andre (8-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Luigi Vendramini -124 52.54%
Elo K170 Jessin Ayari 1524.35 +189.50 70.39%
Elo Modified Jessin Ayari 1522.93 +170.81 67.87%
Glicko-1 Jessin Ayari 1535.59 +163.19 71.90%
WHR Jessin Ayari 1504.85 +163.96 67.90%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jessin Ayari 707, Luigi Vendramini 742
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Casey Kenney
Highest Stored DD Rating: Germaine de Randamie
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Carlos Condit vs. Court McGee
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Holly Holm vs. Irene Aldana
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Very Good [***½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Low [**]
Run Date: 2020-9-27