Fight Matrix Program – UFC 253: Reyes vs. Blachowicz (2020-09-26)

20 Sep , 2020,
Jason

Middleweight Championship (185)
[#1/#10DD/#7P4P] Israel Adesanya (19-0-0, -165) vs. [#3] Paulo Henrique Costa (13-0-0, +137)
Israel Adesanya is the All-Time #6 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Paulo Henrique Costa is the All-Time #30 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Israel Adesanya (3-0-0)
2020-03-07: W vs. [#4MW] Yoel Romero (13-5-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2019-10-05: W vs. [#2MW] Robert Whittaker (21-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:33 of round 2
2019-04-13: W vs. [#9MW] Kelvin Gastelum (15-6-0) via UD (48-46, 48-46, 48-46)

Last 3 Fights: Paulo Henrique Costa (3-0-0)
2019-08-17: W vs. [#4MW] Yoel Romero (13-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-07-07: W vs. [#13MW] Uriah Hall (15-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:36 of round 2
2017-11-04: W vs. [*] Johny Hendricks (18-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:23 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Israel Adesanya -165 59.60%
Elo K170 Israel Adesanya 2326.43 +322.41 81.35%
Elo Modified Israel Adesanya 2287.24 +267.90 76.37%
Glicko-1 Israel Adesanya 2364.83 +232.42 79.21%
WHR Israel Adesanya 2088.42 +98.35 61.05%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Israel Adesanya 203, Paulo Henrique Costa 406
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#3] Jan Blachowicz (26-8-0, +214) vs. [#8] Dominick Reyes (12-1-0, -267)
Jan Blachowicz is the All-Time #24 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Dominick Reyes is the All-Time #43 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jan Blachowicz (3-0-0)
2020-02-15: W vs. [#12LHW] Corey Anderson (13-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:08 of round 1
2019-11-16: W vs. [#9LHW] Ronaldo Souza (26-8-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#17LHW] Luke Rockhold (16-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:39 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Dominick Reyes (2-1-0)
2020-02-08: L vs. [#1LHW/#1P4P] Jon Jones (26-1-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2019-10-18: W vs. [#11MW] Chris Weidman (15-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:43 of round 1
2019-03-16: W vs. [#14LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (17-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dominick Reyes -267 69.55%
Elo K170 Jan Blachowicz 2133.85 +160.21 67.52%
Elo Modified Jan Blachowicz 2093.81 +168.63 67.66%
Glicko-1 Jan Blachowicz 2178.50 +179.45 73.75%
WHR Jan Blachowicz 1944.62 +29.55 53.37%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jan Blachowicz 224, Dominick Reyes 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#42] Zubaira Tukhugov (19-4-1, -114) vs. [#73] Hakeem Dawodu (11-1-1, -109)

Last 3 Fights: Zubaira Tukhugov (1-1-1)
2020-02-22: W vs. [#111LW] Kevin Aguilar (17-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:21 of round 1
2019-09-07: D vs. [#97FW] Lerone Murphy (9-0-1) via Draw (Split) in 5:00 of round 3
2016-05-14: L vs. [#25LW] Renato Carneiro (14-3-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Hakeem Dawodu (3-0-0)
2019-11-02: W vs. [#86FW] Julio Arce (16-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#191FW] Yoshinori Horie (9-2-0) via TKO (Head Kick) in 4:09 of round 3
2018-12-08: W vs. [#176FW] Kyle Bochniak (8-5-0) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 28-29)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Zubaira Tukhugov -114 50.53%
Elo K170 Hakeem Dawodu 1749.62 +31.26 53.56%
Elo Modified Zubaira Tukhugov 1716.68 +15.23 51.67%
Glicko-1 Zubaira Tukhugov 1737.34 +56.69 58.09%
WHR Zubaira Tukhugov 1718.12 +94.87 60.67%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Zubaira Tukhugov 217, Hakeem Dawodu 329
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Flyweight (125)
[#11] Brandon Royval (11-4-0, +184) vs. [#13] Kai Kara France (21-8-0, -230)

Last 3 Fights: Brandon Royval (3-0-0)
2020-05-30: W vs. [#25FLY] Tim Elliott (16-11-1) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:18 of round 2
2019-11-22: W vs. [#162FLY] Nate Williams (30-19-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 0:23 of round 1
2019-05-03: W vs. [#137BW] Joby Sanchez (13-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:17 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Kai Kara France (2-1-0)
2020-02-22: W vs. [#146BW] Tyson Nam (20-11-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-12-14: L vs. [#3FLY] Brandon Moreno (17-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-08-31: W vs. [#199BW] Mark De La Rosa (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kai Kara France -230 66.43%
Elo K170 Kai Kara France 1684.52 +54.86 56.23%
Elo Modified Kai Kara France 1641.19 +1.58 50.17%
Glicko-1 Brandon Royval 1679.86 +19.24 52.76%
WHR Kai Kara France 1615.57 +26.94 53.07%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brandon Royval 119, Kai Kara France 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#6] Sijara Eubanks (6-4-0, +156) vs. [#14] Ketlen Vieira (10-1-0, -186)

Last 3 Fights: Sijara Eubanks (2-1-0)
2020-09-12: W vs. [#15BW] Julia Avila (8-2-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
2020-05-13: W vs. [#29BW] Sarah Moras (6-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2019-09-21: L vs. [#18BW] Bethe Correia (11-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Ketlen Vieira (2-1-0)
2019-12-14: L vs. [#5BW] Irene Aldana (12-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:51 of round 1
2018-03-03: W vs. [#8FW] Cat Zingano (11-4-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2017-09-09: W vs. [#8BW] Sara McMann (12-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:16 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ketlen Vieira -186 62.47%
Elo K170 Ketlen Vieira 1527.14 +18.00 52.05%
Elo Modified Sijara Eubanks 1543.53 +24.24 52.65%
Glicko-1 Sijara Eubanks 1530.61 +40.51 55.80%
WHR Sijara Eubanks 1530.30 +116.19 62.97%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sijara Eubanks 14, Ketlen Vieira 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#60] Jake Matthews (16-4-0, -661) vs. [#69] Diego Sanchez (30-12-0, +456)
Diego Sanchez is the All-Time #24 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jake Matthews (2-1-0)
2020-02-22: W vs. [#108WW] Emil Meek (9-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-10-05: W vs. [#357WW] Rostem Akman (6-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-12-01: L vs. [#17WW] Anthony Rocco Martin (17-6-0) via Technical Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 1:19 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Diego Sanchez (2-1-0)
2020-02-15: W vs. [#121WW] Michel Pereira (25-11-0) via Disqualification (Illegal Knee) in 3:09 of round 3
2019-07-06: L vs. [#10WW] Michael Chiesa (17-4-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2019-03-02: W vs. [#154WW] Mickey Gall (6-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jake Matthews -661 82.84%
Elo K170 Jake Matthews 1784.03 +29.23 53.33%
Elo Modified Jake Matthews 1771.82 +78.83 58.54%
Glicko-1 Jake Matthews 1821.03 +105.33 64.71%
WHR Jake Matthews 1719.27 +57.81 56.56%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Matthews 217, Diego Sanchez 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#100] Brad Riddell (8-1-0, -322) vs. [#202] Alex da Silva Coelho (21-2-0, +251)

Last 3 Fights: Brad Riddell (3-0-0)
2020-02-22: W vs. [#107LW] Magomed Mustafaev (14-4-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-82)
2019-10-05: W vs. [#396LW] Jamie Mullarkey (13-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 29-27)
2019-07-12: W vs. [#1429WW] Mikey Vaotuua (5-9-0) via DEC ()

Last 3 Fights: Alex da Silva Coelho (2-1-0)
2019-08-10: W vs. [#352LW] Rodrigo Vargas (11-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-04-20: L vs. [#108LW] Alexander Yakovlev (25-10-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:10 of round 2
2018-12-01: W vs. [#1155WW] Slavoljub Mitic (9-3-1) via TKO in 1:11 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Brad Riddell -322 72.81%
Elo K170 Brad Riddell 1578.31 +45.84 55.22%
Elo Modified Brad Riddell 1561.27 +1.44 50.16%
Glicko-1 Alex da Silva Coelho 1604.63 +62.19 58.85%
WHR Brad Riddell 1527.73 +61.63 56.99%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brad Riddell 217, Alex da Silva Coelho 413
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#89] Aleksa Camur (6-0-0, -180) vs. [#93] William Knight (8-1-0, +149)

Last 3 Fights: Aleksa Camur (3-0-0)
2020-01-18: W vs. [#147LHW] Justin Ledet (9-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-07-30: W vs. [#273HW+] Fabio Cherant (5-1-0) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 0:48 of round 2
2018-08-18: W vs. [*] Marvin Skipper (4-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:34 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: William Knight (2-1-0)
2020-09-01: W vs. [#187LHW] Cody Brundage (5-1-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 2:23 of round 1
2020-01-24: W vs. [#262LHW] Rocky Edwards (12-10-1) via TKO in 2:56 of round 3
2019-11-22: L vs. [#78LHW] Tafon Nchukwi (4-0-0) via TKO in 2:30 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Aleksa Camur -180 61.55%
Elo K170 Aleksa Camur 1465.96 +12.71 51.45%
Elo Modified Aleksa Camur 1532.16 +10.23 51.12%
Glicko-1 William Knight 1504.05 +3.52 50.51%
WHR William Knight 1451.98 +20.12 52.30%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Aleksa Camur 252, William Knight 25
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[*] Juan Francisco Espino Dieppa (9-1-0, -292) vs. [#91] Jeff Hughes (10-3-0, +231)

Last 3 Fights: Juan Francisco Espino Dieppa (3-0-0)
2018-11-30: W vs. [*] Justin Frazier (12-3-0) via Submission (Straight Armlock) in 3:36 of round 1
2017-10-14: W vs. [#140HW+] Martin Buday (7-1-0) via UD ()
2017-09-23: W vs. [NA] Yuri Gorbenko (12-50-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:27 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jeff Hughes (0-2-0, 1 NC)
2019-10-26: L vs. [#84HW+] Raphael Pessoa (10-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-09-14: NC vs. [#164HW+] Todd Duffee (9-3-0)
2019-03-09: L vs. [#47HW+] Maurice Greene (9-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Juan Francisco Espino Dieppa -292 71.14%
Elo K170 Juan Francisco Espino Dieppa 1603.10 +228.08 73.93%
Elo Modified Juan Francisco Espino Dieppa 1609.46 +142.54 65.11%
Glicko-1 Juan Francisco Espino Dieppa 1643.56 +145.99 69.86%
WHR Juan Francisco Espino Dieppa 1699.12 +272.38 77.63%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Juan Francisco Espino Dieppa 666, Jeff Hughes 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#81] Khadis Ibragimov (8-3-0, -179) vs. [*] Danilo Marques (9-2-0, +149)

Last 3 Fights: Khadis Ibragimov (0-3-0)
2020-07-18: L vs. [#66LHW] Roman Dolidze (7-0-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 4:15 of round 1
2019-11-09: L vs. [#32LHW] Ed Herman (26-14-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-08-31: L vs. [#52LHW] Da Un Jung (12-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Danilo Marques (2-1-0)
2018-02-18: W vs. [*] Cleiton Caetano (5-5-1) via UD ()
2017-07-08: W vs. [NA] Marck Polimeno (0-21-0) via Submission (Armbar) in of round 1
2017-04-14: L vs. [*] Myron Dennis (15-7-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Khadis Ibragimov -179 61.50%
Elo K170 Khadis Ibragimov 1331.58 +146.91 66.18%
Elo Modified Khadis Ibragimov 1392.15 +116.04 62.43%
Glicko-1 Khadis Ibragimov 1366.52 +102.11 64.28%
WHR Khadis Ibragimov 1395.29 +158.16 67.32%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Khadis Ibragimov 70, Danilo Marques 951
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#83] Ludovit Klein (16-2-0) vs. [*] Shane Young (13-4-0)

Last 3 Fights: Ludovit Klein (3-0-0)
2020-02-15: W vs. [#539FW] Lukasz Sajewski (14-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:49 of round 1
2019-09-14: W vs. [#735WW] Joao Paulo Rodrigues de S (37-20-2) via TKO in of round 3
2019-06-08: W vs. [*] Willian Lima (12-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:27 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Shane Young (2-1-0)
2019-02-09: W vs. [#270FW] Austin Arnett (16-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-06-23: W vs. [#450FW] Rolando Dy (12-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:40 of round 2
2017-11-18: L vs. [#1FW/#4DD/#4P4P] Alexander Volkanovski (22-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Ludovit Klein 1704.11 +162.08 67.71%
Elo Modified Ludovit Klein 1686.89 +136.98 64.56%
Glicko-1 Ludovit Klein 1751.83 +159.18 71.43%
WHR Ludovit Klein 1617.70 +43.54 54.96%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ludovit Klein 224, Shane Young 595
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Israel Adesanya
Highest Stored DD Rating: Israel Adesanya
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Henrique Costa
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Henrique Costa
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Moderate [***]
Run Date: 2020-9-20