Fight Matrix Program – Bellator 245: Davis vs. Machida 2 (2020-09-11)

10 Sep , 2020,
Jason

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#5] Phil Davis (21-5-0, -334) vs. [#12] Lyoto Machida (26-9-0, +259)
Phil Davis is the All-Time #17 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Lyoto Machida is the All-Time #8 ranked Light Heavyweight and #19 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Phil Davis (2-1-0)
2019-10-25: W vs. [#69LHW] Karl Albrektsson (9-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:06 of round 3
2019-04-27: W vs. [*] Liam McGeary (13-4-0) via TKO (Jaw Injury) in 4:11 of round 3
2018-11-15: L vs. [#2LHW] Vadim Nemkov (12-2-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Lyoto Machida (2-1-0)
2019-09-28: L vs. [#5MW] Gegard Mousasi (46-7-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2019-06-14: W vs. [*] Chael Sonnen (31-17-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 0:22 of round 2
2018-12-15: W vs. [#38LHW] Rafael Carvalho (16-4-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Phil Davis -334 73.42%
Elo K170 Phil Davis 2000.88 +11.69 51.33%
Elo Modified Phil Davis 2101.13 +109.94 61.80%
Glicko-1 Phil Davis 2185.99 +118.96 66.48%
WHR Phil Davis 2072.19 +207.50 72.07%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Phil Davis 322, Lyoto Machida 349
Previous Match-up Record: Phil Davis leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Lyoto Machida leads 2-0
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Women Featherweight (145)
[*] Cat Zingano (10-4-0, -659) vs. [*] Gabrielle Holloway (6-5-0, +452)
Cat Zingano is the All-Time #32 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cat Zingano (1-2-0)
2018-12-29: L vs. [#7FW] Megan Anderson (11-4-0) via TKO (Eye Injury) in 1:01 of round 1
2018-07-14: W vs. [#16BW] Marion Reneau (9-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2018-03-03: L vs. [#15BW] Ketlen Vieira (10-1-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

Last 3 Fights: Gabrielle Holloway (1-2-0)
2017-03-03: W vs. [NA] Alexis Dufresne (6-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:53 of round 2
2017-02-04: L vs. [#11FW] Amanda Bell (7-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-26)
2015-11-20: L vs. [#5FW] Arlene Blencowe (13-7-0) via SD (30-27, 29-28, 28-29)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Cat Zingano -659 82.73%
Elo K170 Cat Zingano 1415.32 +366.99 84.25%
Elo Modified Cat Zingano 1485.56 +362.12 82.99%
Glicko-1 Cat Zingano 1477.08 +311.92 85.76%
WHR Cat Zingano 1473.31 +350.49 83.22%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cat Zingano 622, Gabrielle Holloway 1288
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#114] Ed Ruth (8-2-0, -290) vs. [#342] Taylor Johnson (5-1-0, +228)

Last 3 Fights: Ed Ruth (2-1-0)
2020-02-21: L vs. [#46WW] Yaroslav Amosov (24-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-10-25: W vs. [#75WW] Jason Jackson (12-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-07-12: W vs. [#171WW] Kiichi Kunimoto (20-9-2) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 3:49 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Taylor Johnson (2-1-0)
2019-08-06: L vs. [#35MW] Andre Muniz (20-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 1
2019-01-18: W vs. [NA] Aaron Chambers (2-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:43 of round 1
2018-07-20: W vs. [*] Luc Bondole (5-3-2) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:36 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ed Ruth -290 70.92%
Elo K170 Ed Ruth 1653.05 +338.98 82.47%
Elo Modified Ed Ruth 1624.04 +235.00 73.66%
Glicko-1 Ed Ruth 1617.50 +271.64 82.69%
WHR Ed Ruth 1577.85 +245.37 75.41%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ed Ruth 203, Taylor Johnson 402
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#642] Raymond Daniels (3-1-0, -277) vs. [*] Peter Stanonik (5-5-0, +219)

Last 3 Fights: Raymond Daniels (2-1-0)
2020-01-25: W vs. [#855WW] Jason King (8-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:07 of round 1
2019-05-04: W vs. [NA] Wilker Barros (0-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:36 of round 1
2008-06-27: L vs. [*] Jeremiah Metcalf (13-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:59 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Peter Stanonik (1-2-0)
2018-06-22: L vs. [#766FW] Jake Heffernan (7-2-0) via UD ()
2018-05-19: W vs. [*] Chris Pecero (14-9-0) via UD ()
2018-02-16: L vs. [#776FW] Rey Trujillo (25-28-0) via SUB in 1:59 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Raymond Daniels -277 70.09%
Elo K170 Raymond Daniels 1242.67 +115.55 62.90%
Elo Modified Raymond Daniels 1278.53 +97.17 60.48%
Glicko-1 Raymond Daniels 1237.22 +109.17 65.21%
WHR Raymond Daniels 1376.53 +305.68 80.17%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Raymond Daniels 230, Peter Stanonik 812
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#38] Rafael Carvalho (16-4-0, -151) vs. [#97] Alex Polizzi (6-0-0, +124)

Last 3 Fights: Rafael Carvalho (1-2-0)
2019-10-12: L vs. [#2LHW] Vadim Nemkov (12-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:56 of round 2
2019-07-12: W vs. [#73MW] Chidi Njokuani (18-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-12-15: L vs. [#12LHW] Lyoto Machida (26-9-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

Last 3 Fights: Alex Polizzi (3-0-0)
2020-02-21: W vs. [#159LHW] Jamal Pogues (8-3-0) via Submission (Heel Hook) in 0:41 of round 4
2019-09-05: W vs. [#288LHW] Daniel Jolly (6-5-0) via TKO in 4:32 of round 1
2019-06-28: W vs. [#397LHW] Pierre Walters (3-1-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:27 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Rafael Carvalho -151 57.40%
Elo K170 Rafael Carvalho 1746.08 +321.77 81.31%
Elo Modified Rafael Carvalho 1770.91 +269.39 76.48%
Glicko-1 Rafael Carvalho 1794.15 +315.00 85.98%
WHR Rafael Carvalho 1740.50 +352.90 83.38%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael Carvalho 335, Alex Polizzi 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#74] Tyrell Fortune (8-1-0, -442) vs. [*] Jack May (11-7-0, +330)

Last 3 Fights: Tyrell Fortune (2-1-0)
2020-02-21: L vs. [#23HW+] Timothy Johnson (14-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:35 of round 1
2019-11-08: W vs. [#97HW+] Azunna Anyanwu (15-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:56 of round 2
2019-08-24: W vs. [#210HW+] Rudy Schaffroth (7-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:08 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jack May (1-2-0)
2019-05-11: W vs. [#106HW+] Michael Quintero (6-2-0) via UD ()
2018-12-22: L vs. [#106HW+] Michael Quintero (6-2-0) via SUB in 5:00 of round 1
2018-10-05: L vs. [#64HW+] Alex Nicholson (14-9-0) via TKO (Leg Kick and Punches) in 2:03 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tyrell Fortune -442 77.80%
Elo K170 Tyrell Fortune 1474.25 +135.93 65.04%
Elo Modified Tyrell Fortune 1519.06 +129.11 63.77%
Glicko-1 Tyrell Fortune 1522.60 +163.30 71.91%
WHR Tyrell Fortune 1486.52 +112.32 62.55%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tyrell Fortune 203, Jack May 489
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (140)
[#63BW] Keith Lee (6-3-0, -267) vs. [#245BW] Vinicius Zani (11-6-0, +212)

Last 3 Fights: Keith Lee (3-0-0)
2020-02-21: W vs. [#79BW] Shawn Bunch (9-5-0) via UD (30-26, 29-28, 29-27)
2019-12-13: W vs. [#1453BW] Leonardo Alves Carvalho (3-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:37 of round 2
2019-06-20: W vs. [#696BW] Chris Johnson (9-13-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Vinicius Zani (1-2-0)
2020-02-21: L vs. [#40BW] Josh Hill (20-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-03-23: L vs. [#28BW] Ricky Simon (17-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:59 of round 1
2017-10-13: W vs. [*] Joey Miolla (10-4-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Keith Lee -267 69.41%
Elo K170 Vinicius Zani 1425.35 +83.13 59.38%
Elo Modified Vinicius Zani 1438.67 +15.74 51.72%
Glicko-1 Vinicius Zani 1427.10 +5.11 50.74%
WHR Vinicius Zani 1473.22 +112.87 62.61%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Keith Lee 203, Vinicius Zani 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Featherweight (145)
[#11] Amanda Bell (7-6-0, +211) vs. [#13] Leslie Smith (11-8-1, -268)

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Bell (2-1-0)
2019-11-08: W vs. [#22FW] Janay Harding (5-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:44 of round 3
2019-07-12: L vs. [#5FW] Arlene Blencowe (13-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:22 of round 1
2019-02-15: W vs. [#47FW] Amber Leibrock (3-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:52 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Leslie Smith (2-1-0)
2019-11-08: L vs. [#5FW] Arlene Blencowe (13-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-07-12: W vs. [#14FW] Sinead Kavanagh (6-4-0) via MD (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)
2017-07-16: W vs. [#17SW] Amanda Lemos (8-1-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:53 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Leslie Smith -268 69.37%
Elo K170 Leslie Smith 1440.83 +162.17 67.72%
Elo Modified Leslie Smith 1460.86 +155.09 66.35%
Glicko-1 Leslie Smith 1426.66 +119.34 66.53%
WHR Leslie Smith 1400.63 +122.57 63.65%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Amanda Bell 308, Leslie Smith 308
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Phil Davis
Highest Stored DD Rating: Phil Davis
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Phil Davis vs. Lyoto Machida
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Phil Davis vs. Lyoto Machida
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Very Good [***½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Extremely Low [*]
Run Date: 2020-9-10