Fight Matrix Program – UFC on ESPN+ 25: Felder vs. Hooker (02-22-2020)

19 Feb , 2020,
Jason

Lightweight (155)
[#8] Dan Hooker (19-8-0, -136) vs. [#9] Paul Felder (17-4-0, +112)
Paul Felder is the All-Time #48 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dan Hooker (2-1-0)
2019-10-05: W vs. [#13LW] Al Iaquinta (15-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#112WW] James Vick (13-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:33 of round 1
2018-12-15: L vs. [#15LW] Edson Barboza (20-8-0) via KO (Punch to the Body) in 2:19 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Paul Felder (2-1-0)
2019-09-07: W vs. [#15LW] Edson Barboza (20-8-0) via SD (27-30, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-02-17: W vs. [#112WW] James Vick (13-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-07-07: L vs. [#30WW] Mike Perry (13-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Dan Hooker – Win%: 54.99
Elo Favorite (Standard): Paul Felder (1997.16) [+12.99] – Win%: 51.48
Elo Favorite (Modified): Dan Hooker (1969.78) [+19.40] – Win%: 52.12
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Dan Hooker (1981.82) [+20.38] – Win%: 53.71
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Hooker 140, Paul Felder 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#34] Jim Crute (10-1-0, +125) vs. [#42] Michal Oleksiejczuk (16-3-0, -149)

Last 3 Fights: Jim Crute (2-1-0)
2019-09-14: L vs. [#20LHW] Misha Cirkunov (15-5-0) via Submission (Peruvian Necktie) in 3:38 of round 1
2019-02-09: W vs. [#39LHW] Sam Alvey (33-13-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:49 of round 1
2018-12-01: W vs. [#47LHW] Paul Craig (12-4-1) via Submission (Kimura) in 4:51 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Michal Oleksiejczuk (2-1-0)
2019-09-28: L vs. [#21LHW] Ovince St. Preux (24-13-0) via Submission (Shoulder Choke) in 2:14 of round 2
2019-04-20: W vs. [#85LHW] Gadzhimurad Antigulov (20-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:44 of round 1
2019-02-23: W vs. [#44LHW] Gian Villante (17-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:34 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Michal Oleksiejczuk – Win%: 57.38
Elo Favorite (Standard): Michal Oleksiejczuk (1646.75) [+41.12] – Win%: 54.68
Elo Favorite (Modified): Michal Oleksiejczuk (1664.15) [+3.19] – Win%: 50.35
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Michal Oleksiejczuk (1664.40) [+47.53] – Win%: 58.97
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jim Crute 161, Michal Oleksiejczuk 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#59] Marcos Rogerio de Lima (16-6-1, -146) vs. [#144] Ben Sosoli (7-2-0, +121)

Last 3 Fights: Marcos Rogerio de Lima (1-2-0)
2019-02-23: L vs. [#37HW+] Stefan Struve (29-12-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:21 of round 2
2018-11-03: W vs. [*] Adam Wieczorek (10-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-04-22: L vs. [#21LHW] Ovince St. Preux (24-13-0) via Submission (Shoulder Choke) in 2:11 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ben Sosoli (1-0-0, 2 NC)
2019-10-18: NC vs. [#104HW+] Greg Hardy (5-2-0)
2019-08-27: NC vs. [#223HW+] Dustin Joynson (5-0-0)
2019-03-29: W vs. [#318HW+] Kelvin Fitial (15-9-2) via KO (Punches) in 1:42 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Marcos Rogerio de Lima – Win%: 56.73
Elo Favorite (Standard): Marcos Rogerio de Lima (1527.20) [+167.14] – Win%: 68.21
Elo Favorite (Modified): Marcos Rogerio de Lima (1573.28) [+202.54] – Win%: 70.82
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Marcos Rogerio de Lima (1514.40) [+120.68] – Win%: 72.16
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marcos Rogerio de Lima 364, Ben Sosoli 127
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#18] Xiaonan Yan (11-1-0, -244) vs. [#23] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-5-0, +198)

Last 3 Fights: Xiaonan Yan (3-0-0)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#19SW] Angela Hill (11-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-11-24: W vs. [#89SW] Syuri Kondo (6-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-06-23: W vs. [#4AW] Viviane Pereira (14-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Karolina Kowalkiewicz (0-3-0)
2019-06-08: L vs. [#14SW] Alexa Grasso (11-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-03-30: L vs. [#11SW] Michelle Waterson (17-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-09-08: L vs. [#2SW/#5DD/#7P4P] Jessica Andrade (20-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:58 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Xiaonan Yan – Win%: 67.88
Elo Favorite (Standard): Xiaonan Yan (1544.95) [+138.54] – Win%: 65.32
Elo Favorite (Modified): Xiaonan Yan (1544.73) [+162.66] – Win%: 67.09
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Xiaonan Yan (1556.74) [+174.29] – Win%: 78.79
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Xiaonan Yan 259, Karolina Kowalkiewicz 259
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#78] Magomed Mustafaev (14-3-0, -153) vs. [#277] Brad Riddell (7-1-0, +127)

Last 3 Fights: Magomed Mustafaev (2-1-0)
2019-04-20: W vs. [#119LW] Rafael Fiziev (7-1-0) via TKO (Spinning Back Kick and Punches) in 1:26 of round 1
2016-11-19: L vs. [#6LW] Kevin Lee (18-5-0) via SUB in 4:31 of round 2
2015-12-12: W vs. [*] Joe Proctor (11-5-0) via TKO in 1:54 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Brad Riddell (3-0-0)
2019-10-05: W vs. [#405LW] Jamie Mullarkey (13-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 29-27)
2019-07-12: W vs. [#1732WW] Mikey Vaotuua (5-9-0) via DEC ()
2019-05-25: W vs. [#1179LW] Maxim Pugachev (9-6-1) via TKO (Punches) in 5:00 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Magomed Mustafaev – Win%: 57.85
Elo Favorite (Standard): Magomed Mustafaev (1683.18) [+242.48] – Win%: 75.17
Elo Favorite (Modified): Magomed Mustafaev (1690.58) [+178.26] – Win%: 68.57
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Magomed Mustafaev (1694.38) [+232.98] – Win%: 85.85
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Magomed Mustafaev 308, Brad Riddell 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#39] Kevin Aguilar (17-2-0, -130) vs. [#202] Zubaira Tukhugov (18-4-1, +106)

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Aguilar (2-1-0)
2019-06-22: L vs. [#23FW] Dan Ige (13-2-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-03-30: W vs. [#69FW] Enrique Barzola (17-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-11-30: W vs. [#72FW] Rick Glenn (21-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Zubaira Tukhugov (1-1-1)
2019-09-07: D vs. [#254FW] Lerone Murphy (8-0-1) via Draw (Split) in 5:00 of round 3
2016-05-14: L vs. [#20FW] Renato Carneiro (13-3-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2015-12-10: W vs. [*] Phillipe Nover (10-8-1) via SD (28-29, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Kevin Aguilar – Win%: 53.79
Elo Favorite (Standard): Kevin Aguilar (1780.82) [+190.01] – Win%: 70.43
Elo Favorite (Modified): Kevin Aguilar (1752.74) [+144.19] – Win%: 65.28
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Kevin Aguilar (1743.90) [+121.36] – Win%: 71.20
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kevin Aguilar 245, Zubaira Tukhugov 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#274] Jalin Turner (8-5-0) vs. [#203FW] Joshua Culibao (9-0-0)

Last 3 Fights: Jalin Turner (1-2-0)
2019-04-13: L vs. [#118LW] Matt Frevola (8-1-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-02-09: W vs. [#183WW] Callan Potter (18-8-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 0:53 of round 1
2018-10-06: L vs. [#24WW] Vicente Luque (17-7-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:52 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Joshua Culibao (3-0-0)
2019-03-01: W vs. [#2324FW] Josh Payne (8-9-0) via TKO in 3:02 of round 1
2018-11-10: W vs. [#732FW] Rodolfo Marques (25-14-1) via TKO in of round 4
2017-12-02: W vs. [*] James McGlashan (6-6-0) via UD ()

Elo Favorite (Standard): Joshua Culibao (1549.64) [+198.05] – Win%: 71.19
Elo Favorite (Modified): Joshua Culibao (1527.69) [+161.68] – Win%: 66.99
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Joshua Culibao (1468.82) [+47.61] – Win%: 59.06
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jalin Turner 315, Joshua Culibao 358
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#79] Jake Matthews (15-4-0, -234) vs. [*] Emil Meek (9-4-0, +189)

Last 3 Fights: Jake Matthews (2-1-0)
2019-10-05: W vs. [#385WW] Rostem Akman (6-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-12-01: L vs. [#16WW] Anthony Rocco Martin (17-5-0) via Technical Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 1:19 of round 3
2018-06-23: W vs. [#194WW] Shinsho Anzai (11-4-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:44 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Emil Meek (1-2-0)
2018-07-22: L vs. [*] Bartosz Fabinski (14-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-01-14: L vs. [#1WW/#3DD/#6P4P] Kamaru Usman (16-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2016-12-10: W vs. [*] Jordan Mein (31-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Jake Matthews – Win%: 66.94
Elo Favorite (Standard): Jake Matthews (1725.30) [+115.83] – Win%: 62.93
Elo Favorite (Modified): Jake Matthews (1735.58) [+129.31] – Win%: 63.78
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Jake Matthews (1698.14) [+65.43] – Win%: 62.28
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Matthews 140, Emil Meek 580
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#91] Kenan Song (15-5-0, -183) vs. [#183] Callan Potter (18-8-0, +152)

Last 3 Fights: Kenan Song (2-1-0)
2019-08-31: W vs. [#104WW] Derrick Krantz (24-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-11-24: L vs. [#69WW] Alex Morono (17-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-06-23: W vs. [#1153WW] Hector Aldana (4-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:42 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Callan Potter (2-1-0)
2019-10-05: W vs. [#229WW] Maki Pitolo (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-02-09: L vs. [#274LW] Jalin Turner (8-5-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 0:53 of round 1
2018-12-08: W vs. [#384LW] B.J. Bland (13-10-0) via SD ()

Odds Favorite (Implied): Kenan Song – Win%: 61.97
Elo Favorite (Standard): Callan Potter (1540.68) [+61.06] – Win%: 56.93
Elo Favorite (Modified): Callan Potter (1541.62) [+39.99] – Win%: 54.37
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Kenan Song (1515.12) [+5.92] – Win%: 51.14
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kenan Song 175, Callan Potter 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Flyweight (125)
[#24] Kai Kara-France (20-8-0, -269) vs. [#51] Tyson Nam (18-10-1, +217)

Last 3 Fights: Kai Kara-France (2-1-0)
2019-12-14: L vs. [#7FLY] Brandon Moreno (16-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-08-31: W vs. [#69FLY] Mark De La Rosa (11-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-02-09: W vs. [#35FLY] Raulian Paiva (19-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Tyson Nam (2-1-0)
2019-09-21: L vs. [#29BW] Sergio Pettis (19-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-07-03: W vs. [#288FLY] Shojin Miki (6-6-0) via UD ()
2019-04-27: W vs. [NA] Donald Gonzalez (4-10-0) via TKO in 1:03 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Kai Kara-France – Win%: 69.79
Elo Favorite (Standard): Kai Kara-France (1644.07) [+205.12] – Win%: 71.85
Elo Favorite (Modified): Kai Kara-France (1609.01) [+145.68] – Win%: 65.42
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Kai Kara-France (1584.27) [+98.30] – Win%: 68.01
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kai Kara-France 70, Tyson Nam 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#19] Angela Hill (11-7-0) vs. [#100] Konklak Suphisara (4-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Angela Hill (2-1-0)
2020-01-25: W vs. [#44SW] Hannah Cifers (10-4-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:26 of round 2
2019-09-21: W vs. [#52SW] Ariane Carnelossi (12-2-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 1:56 of round 3
2019-06-08: L vs. [#18SW] Xiaonan Yan (11-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Konklak Suphisara (2-1-0)
2019-10-26: W vs. [#128SW] Aleksandra Albu (3-2-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
2019-06-07: W vs. [#36AW] Monique Adriane (4-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-11-03: L vs. [#18AW] Suwanan Boonsorn (4-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:06 of round 1

Elo Favorite (Standard): Angela Hill (1496.16) [+270.22] – Win%: 77.46
Elo Favorite (Modified): Angela Hill (1503.11) [+320.26] – Win%: 80.25
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Angela Hill (1491.71) [+279.47] – Win%: 89.87
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Angela Hill 28, Konklak Suphisara 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#87] Takashi Sato (15-3-0, -116) vs. [#229] Maki Pitolo (12-5-0, -107)

Last 3 Fights: Takashi Sato (2-1-0)
2019-09-07: L vs. [#28WW] Belal Muhammad (16-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:55 of round 3
2019-04-27: W vs. [#94WW] Ben Saunders (22-13-2) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 1:18 of round 2
2018-10-21: W vs. [*] Matt Vaile (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:37 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Maki Pitolo (2-1-0)
2019-10-05: L vs. [#183WW] Callan Potter (18-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-07-09: W vs. [#254MW] Justin Sumter (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:37 of round 1
2018-12-15: W vs. [#381MW] Chris Cisneros (19-11-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:40 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Takashi Sato – Win%: 50.95
Elo Favorite (Standard): Takashi Sato (1653.62) [+226.26] – Win%: 73.76
Elo Favorite (Modified): Takashi Sato (1630.57) [+167.76] – Win%: 67.58
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Takashi Sato (1603.00) [+118.91] – Win%: 71.46
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Takashi Sato 168, Maki Pitolo 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#71] Priscila Cachoeira (8-3-0, +140) vs. [#160] Shana Dobson (3-3-0, -165)

Last 3 Fights: Priscila Cachoeira (0-3-0)
2019-05-11: L vs. [#29FLY] Luana Carolina (6-1-0) via UD ()
2019-03-16: L vs. [#16FLY] Molly McCann (10-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-02-03: L vs. [#1FLY/#2DD/#2P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (19-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:25 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Shana Dobson (1-2-0)
2019-08-17: L vs. [#30FLY] Sabina Mazo (8-1-0) via UD (30-25, 30-24, 30-25)
2018-04-14: L vs. [#133FLY] Lauren Mueller (5-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-12-01: W vs. [*] Ariel Beck (4-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:53 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Shana Dobson – Win%: 59.90
Elo Favorite (Standard): Priscila Cachoeira (1213.51) [+191.19] – Win%: 70.55
Elo Favorite (Modified): Priscila Cachoeira (1260.66) [+172.42] – Win%: 68.02
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Priscila Cachoeira (1206.18) [+119.92] – Win%: 72.75
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Priscila Cachoeira 287, Shana Dobson 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Favorite rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– The Glicko-1 scores in this post are adjusted to better match the 1000 Elo starter rating for an easier comparison.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Dan Hooker
Highest Stored DD Rating: Dan Hooker
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Dan Hooker vs. Paul Felder
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Dan Hooker vs. Paul Felder
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Fair [**½]
Run Date: 2020-2-19