Since we now post Glicko-based ratings, a 100% mathematically pure, albeit very limited system, I thought I’d use those ratings for more than just ranking. You may have noticed in a recent award post, I mentioned the biggest upset of the year based on Glicko rating point difference, which was Asakura KO(1) Horiguchi.
That upset still had some basic requirements, you can check the MMA Awards page for more details. Simply put, the loser has to be active and relevant on the world scale.
I thought it’d be interesting to see what the absolute biggest upset was in 2019, regardless of relevance.
I was shocked to see a 852.34 point difference where a fighter named Anthony Formoso (7-0) lost by submission, to a fighter named Chris “The Killer Skater” Sandt (1-16). Yes, an undefeated fighter lost to a 1-16 opponent. An 852.34 point difference roughly equates to a 0.1% chance of an upset.
Using this method, this is actually the third biggest upset of all-time, with the biggest being King Mo beating Travis Wiuff (+913.22) in his debut back in 2008, and the runner-up being Mark Hunt’s 2005 split decision victory over Cro Cop (+911.67). Though, in these contests, King Mo and Mark Hunt both had a past high-level combat sports related pedigree. The same applies in the fourth biggest upset — Joe Schilling KO(2) Melvin Manhoef.