Fight Matrix Program – UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington (12-14-2019)

Welterweight Championship (170)
[#1/#5DD/#6P4P] Kamaru Usman (15-1-0, -183) vs. [#4] Colby Covington (15-1-0, +153)
Kamaru Usman is the All-Time #13 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Colby Covington is the All-Time #20 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kamaru Usman (3-0-0)
2019-03-02: W vs. [#2WW] Tyron Woodley (19-4-1) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 50-44)
2018-11-30: W vs. [#7WW] Rafael dos Anjos (29-12-0) via UD (49-45, 50-43, 48-47)
2018-05-19: W vs. [#9WW] Demian Maia (28-9-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Colby Covington (3-0-0)
2019-08-03: W vs. [#17WW] Robbie Lawler (28-14-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-44)
2018-06-09: W vs. [#7WW] Rafael dos Anjos (29-12-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2017-10-28: W vs. [#9WW] Demian Maia (28-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 29-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Kamaru Usman – Win%: 62.05
Elo Favorite (Standard): Kamaru Usman (2333.07) [+92.97] – Win%: 60.46
Elo Favorite (Modified): Kamaru Usman (2254.80) [+68.26] – Win%: 57.42
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Kamaru Usman (2293.26) [+79.30] – Win%: 63.66
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kamaru Usman 287, Colby Covington 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 3 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#2DD/#7P4P] Max Holloway (21-4-0, -173) vs. [#2] Alexander Volkanovski (20-1-0, +145)
Max Holloway is the All-Time #2 ranked Featherweight and #13 ranked Absolute fighter.
Alexander Volkanovski is the All-Time #20 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (2-1-0)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#6FW] Frankie Edgar (23-7-1) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 48-47)
2019-04-13: L vs. [#3LW/#6DD] Dustin Poirier (25-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2018-12-08: W vs. [#4FW] Brian Ortega (14-1-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkanovski (3-0-0)
2019-05-11: W vs. [#3FW] Jose Aldo (28-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-12-29: W vs. [*] Chad Mendes (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 2
2018-07-14: W vs. [#32FW] Darren Elkins (24-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Max Holloway – Win%: 60.82
Elo Favorite (Standard): Max Holloway (2296.63) [+96.22] – Win%: 60.82
Elo Favorite (Modified): Max Holloway (2267.25) [+96.15] – Win%: 60.37
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Max Holloway (2277.09) [+94.03] – Win%: 66.34
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Max Holloway 140, Alexander Volkanovski 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Max Holloway leads 2-1
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Women Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#1DD/#1P4P] Amanda Nunes (18-4-0, -306) vs. [#2/#6DD/#6P4P] Germaine de Randamie (9-3-0, +242)
Amanda Nunes is the All-Time #3 ranked Women’s fighter.
Germaine de Randamie is the All-Time #29 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Nunes (3-0-0)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#3BW] Holly Holm (12-5-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 4:10 of round 1
2018-12-29: W vs. [#1FW/#5DD/#4P4P] Cristiane Justino (21-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:51 of round 1
2018-05-12: W vs. [#5BW] Raquel Pennington (10-7-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 2:36 of round 5

Last 3 Fights: Germaine de Randamie (3-0-0)
2019-07-13: W vs. [#4BW] Aspen Ladd (9-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:16 of round 1
2018-11-10: W vs. [#5BW] Raquel Pennington (10-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-02-11: W vs. [#3BW] Holly Holm (12-5-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Amanda Nunes – Win%: 72.04
Elo Favorite (Standard): Amanda Nunes (1997.02) [+286.29] – Win%: 78.72
Elo Favorite (Modified): Amanda Nunes (1953.99) [+227.52] – Win%: 73.02
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Amanda Nunes (1971.11) [+248.16] – Win%: 86.24
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Amanda Nunes 161, Germaine de Randamie 154
Previous Match-up Record: Amanda Nunes leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Amanda Nunes leads 4-2
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Bantamweight (135)
[#3FW] Jose Aldo (28-5-0, +155) vs. [#3] Marlon Moraes (22-6-1, -186)
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #3 ranked Absolute fighter.
Marlon Moraes is the All-Time #8 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (2-1-0)
2019-05-11: L vs. [#2FW] Alexander Volkanovski (20-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-02-02: W vs. [#20FW] Renato Carneiro (13-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:44 of round 2
2018-07-28: W vs. [#12FW] Jeremy Stephens (28-17-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:19 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Marlon Moraes (2-1-0)
2019-06-08: L vs. [#1BW/#2P4P] Henry Cejudo (15-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:51 of round 3
2019-02-02: W vs. [#13BW] Raphael Assuncao (27-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:17 of round 1
2018-06-01: W vs. [#12BW] Jimmie Rivera (22-4-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 0:33 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Marlon Moraes – Win%: 62.37
Elo Favorite (Standard): Marlon Moraes (2077.84) [+3.83] – Win%: 50.44
Elo Favorite (Modified): Jose Aldo (2056.80) [+18.87] – Win%: 52.06
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Jose Aldo (2080.26) [+37.10] – Win%: 56.73
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Aldo 217, Marlon Moraes 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#5] Petr Yan (13-1-0, -480) vs. [#10] Urijah Faber (35-10-0, +358)
Petr Yan is the All-Time #46 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Urijah Faber is the All-Time #5 ranked Bantamweight and #15 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Petr Yan (3-0-0)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#12BW] Jimmie Rivera (22-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-02-23: W vs. [#19BW] John Dodson (20-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-12-29: W vs. [#75FW] Douglas Silva de Andrade (26-3-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Urijah Faber (2-1-0)
2019-07-13: W vs. [#26BW] Ricky Simon (16-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:46 of round 1
2016-12-17: W vs. [*] Brad Pickett (25-14-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2016-09-10: L vs. [#12BW] Jimmie Rivera (22-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Petr Yan – Win%: 79.12
Elo Favorite (Standard): Petr Yan (1994.11) [+75.33] – Win%: 58.52
Elo Favorite (Modified): Petr Yan (1994.32) [+99.38] – Win%: 60.71
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Petr Yan (1985.00) [+76.37] – Win%: 63.63
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Petr Yan 189, Urijah Faber 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Petr Yan leads 1-0
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Welterweight (170)
[#25] Mike Perry (13-5-0, +203) vs. [#33] Geoff Neal (12-2-0, -254)

Last 3 Fights: Mike Perry (1-2-0)
2019-08-10: L vs. [#24WW] Vicente Luque (17-7-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#39WW] Alex Oliveira (20-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-11-10: L vs. [#16WW] Donald Cerrone (36-13-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:46 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Geoff Neal (3-0-0)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#49WW] Niko Price (14-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:39 of round 2
2019-01-19: W vs. [#29WW] Belal Muhammad (16-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-09-08: W vs. [#135LW] Frank Camacho (23-8-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:23 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Geoff Neal – Win%: 68.49
Elo Favorite (Standard): Geoff Neal (1827.13) [+59.27] – Win%: 56.73
Elo Favorite (Modified): Geoff Neal (1813.10) [+12.29] – Win%: 51.35
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Mike Perry (1802.80) [+1.13] – Win%: 50.21
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mike Perry 126, Geoff Neal 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#7] Irene Aldana (11-5-0, +140) vs. [*] Ketlen Vieira (10-0-0, -169)

Last 3 Fights: Irene Aldana (2-1-0)
2019-09-21: W vs. [#37BW] Vanessa Melo (10-7-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2019-07-20: L vs. [#5BW] Raquel Pennington (10-7-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-05-11: W vs. [#9BW] Bethe Correia (11-4-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:24 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Ketlen Vieira (3-0-0)
2018-03-03: W vs. [#9FW] Cat Zingano (10-4-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2017-09-09: W vs. [*] Sara McMann (11-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:16 of round 2
2017-04-15: W vs. [#71FLY] Ashlee Evans-Smith (6-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ketlen Vieira – Win%: 60.12
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ketlen Vieira (1647.32) [+153.17] – Win%: 66.81
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ketlen Vieira (1604.47) [+34.87] – Win%: 53.81
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Ketlen Vieira (1582.11) [+13.91] – Win%: 52.63
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Irene Aldana 84, Ketlen Vieira 651
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#16] Omari Akhmedov (19-4-1, +108) vs. [#19] Ian Heinisch (13-2-0, -133)

Last 3 Fights: Omari Akhmedov (2-0-1)
2019-09-07: W vs. [#37MW] Zak Cummings (23-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-03-09: W vs. [#27MW] Tim Boetsch (21-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-12-30: D vs. [#33MW] Marvin Vettori (13-4-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Ian Heinisch (2-1-0)
2019-08-17: L vs. [#12MW] Derek Brunson (20-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#22MW] Antonio Carlos Jr. (10-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-11-17: W vs. [#55MW] Cezar Ferreira (13-8-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ian Heinisch – Win%: 54.27
Elo Favorite (Standard): Omari Akhmedov (1872.73) [+63.75] – Win%: 57.23
Elo Favorite (Modified): Omari Akhmedov (1853.78) [+31.79] – Win%: 53.47
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Omari Akhmedov (1843.05) [+15.00] – Win%: 52.79
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Omari Akhmedov 98, Ian Heinisch 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[*] Matt Brown (21-16-0, -359) vs. [#94] Ben Saunders (22-12-2, +277)
Matt Brown is the All-Time #40 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Matt Brown (1-2-0)
2017-11-11: W vs. [#64WW] Diego Sanchez (29-12-0) via KO (Elbow) in 3:44 of round 1
2016-12-10: L vs. [#16WW] Donald Cerrone (36-13-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:34 of round 3
2016-07-30: L vs. [*] Jake Ellenberger (31-15-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 1:46 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ben Saunders (0-3-0)
2019-04-27: L vs. [#90WW] Takashi Sato (15-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 1:18 of round 2
2018-11-03: L vs. [#38WW] Lyman Good (21-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 1
2018-09-22: L vs. [#75WW] Sergio Moraes (14-6-1) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:35 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Matt Brown – Win%: 74.67
Elo Favorite (Standard): Matt Brown (1842.58) [+340.75] – Win%: 82.59
Elo Favorite (Modified): Matt Brown (1823.41) [+307.61] – Win%: 79.36
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Matt Brown (1810.80) [+279.69] – Win%: 89.08
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Matt Brown 763, Ben Saunders 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Matt Brown leads 3-2
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Featherweight (145)
[#191] Chase Hooper (8-0-1) vs. [#291] Daniel Teymur (7-3-0)

Last 3 Fights: Chase Hooper (2-0-1)
2019-06-28: W vs. [#496FW] Luis Gomez (7-4-0) via SUB in 3:31 of round 1
2019-03-22: W vs. [#2361LW] Sky Moiseichik (8-7-0) via TKO in 3:47 of round 2
2018-12-14: D vs. [#601FW] Lashawn Alcocks (7-9-1) via DRAW in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Teymur (1-2-0)
2019-06-01: W vs. [#597FW] Sung Bin Jo (9-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-02-23: L vs. [#129FW] Chris Fishgold (18-3-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:10 of round 2
2018-06-01: L vs. [#94FW] Julio Arce (16-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:55 of round 3

Elo Favorite (Standard): Chase Hooper (1475.76) [+41.30] – Win%: 54.70
Elo Favorite (Modified): Chase Hooper (1558.07) [+73.89] – Win%: 58.02
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Chase Hooper (1503.51) [+38.33] – Win%: 57.35
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chase Hooper 169, Daniel Teymur 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Flyweight (125)
[#10] Brandon Moreno (15-5-1, +122) vs. [#15] Kai Kara-France (20-7-0, -148)
Brandon Moreno is the All-Time #27 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Brandon Moreno (1-1-1)
2019-09-21: D vs. [#9FLY] Askar Askarov (10-0-1) via Draw (Split) in 5:00 of round 3
2019-06-07: W vs. [#47FLY] Maikel Perez (6-2-0) via TKO in 1:54 of round 4
2018-05-19: L vs. [#4FLY] Alexandre Pantoja (21-4-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Kai Kara-France (3-0-0)
2019-08-31: W vs. [#48FLY] Mark De La Rosa (11-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-02-09: W vs. [#64FLY] Raulian Paiva (18-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-12-01: W vs. [#121FLY] Elias Garcia (6-2-0) via UD (30-25, 30-26, 30-25)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Kai Kara-France – Win%: 56.98
Elo Favorite (Standard): Kai Kara-France (1755.03) [+109.13] – Win%: 62.21
Elo Favorite (Modified): Kai Kara-France (1687.17) [+70.50] – Win%: 57.66
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Kai Kara-France (1683.29) [+21.71] – Win%: 54.06
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brandon Moreno 84, Kai Kara-France 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#4] Jessica Eye (14-7-0, +141) vs. [#7] Viviane Araujo (8-1-0, -171)
Jessica Eye is the All-Time #42 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Eye (2-1-0)
2019-06-08: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#2P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (18-3-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:26 of round 2
2018-12-08: W vs. [#2FLY/#7P4P] Katlyn Chookagian (13-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-06-23: W vs. [#36BW] Jessica-Rose Clark (9-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Viviane Araujo (3-0-0)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#15FLY] Alexis Davis (19-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-05-11: W vs. [#33BW] Talita Bernardo (6-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:48 of round 3
2018-08-05: W vs. [#29SW] Emi Fujino (24-11-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 0:19 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Viviane Araujo – Win%: 60.33
Elo Favorite (Standard): Viviane Araujo (1584.27) [+37.83] – Win%: 54.31
Elo Favorite (Modified): Viviane Araujo (1603.75) [+81.51] – Win%: 58.83
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Viviane Araujo (1607.61) [+94.46] – Win%: 66.98
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jessica Eye 189, Viviane Araujo 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Viviane Araujo leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#126] Oskar Piechota (11-2-1, -105) vs. [#141] Punahele Soriano (6-0-0, -119)

Last 3 Fights: Oskar Piechota (1-2-0)
2019-08-10: L vs. [#80MW] Rodolfo Vieira (6-0-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:26 of round 2
2018-07-06: L vs. [#45MW] Gerald Meerschaert (30-12-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:55 of round 2
2018-02-18: W vs. [*] Tim Williams (15-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Punahele Soriano (3-0-0)
2019-06-18: W vs. [#239HW+] Jamie Pickett (9-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2018-10-19: W vs. [#390MW] Jhonoven Pati (6-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:36 of round 1
2018-06-16: W vs. [NA] James Horne (3-3-0) via TKO in 0:45 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Punahele Soriano – Win%: 51.47
Elo Favorite (Standard): Oskar Piechota (1481.43) [+39.01] – Win%: 54.44
Elo Favorite (Modified): Oskar Piechota (1541.69) [+23.22] – Win%: 52.54
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Oskar Piechota (1512.64) [+40.69] – Win%: 57.82
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Oskar Piechota 126, Punahele Soriano 179
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Favorite rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– The Glicko-1 scores in this post are adjusted to better match the 1000 Elo starter rating for an easier comparison.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Kamaru Usman
Highest Stored DD Rating: Max Holloway
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Max Holloway vs. Alexander Volkanovski
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): EPIC [*****]
Run Date: 2019-12-10