Fight Matrix Program- UFC on ESPN+ 22: Blachowicz vs. Jacare (11-16-2019)

13 Nov , 2019,
jcs

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#8MW] Ronaldo Souza (26-7-0, +172) vs. [#6] Jan Blachowicz (24-8-0, -209)
Jan Blachowicz is the All-Time #41 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ronaldo Souza (1-2-0)
2019-04-27: L vs. [#11MW] Jack Hermansson (20-5-0) via UD (49-45, 48-47, 48-47)
2018-11-03: W vs. [#14MW] Chris Weidman (14-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:46 of round 3
2018-05-12: L vs. [#10MW] Kelvin Gastelum (15-5-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jan Blachowicz (2-1-0)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#11LHW] Luke Rockhold (16-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:39 of round 2
2019-02-23: L vs. [#2LHW] Thiago Santos (21-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:39 of round 3
2018-09-15: W vs. [#15LHW] Nikita Krylov (25-7-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:41 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Jan Blachowicz – Win%: 64.78
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ronaldo Souza (2000.46) [+27.83] – Win%: 53.17
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ronaldo Souza (2070.32) [+101.03] – Win%: 60.88
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Ronaldo Souza (2043.82) [+88.86] – Win%: 66.14
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ronaldo Souza 203, Jan Blachowicz 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jan Blachowicz leads 1-0
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#25] Mauricio Rua (26-11-0, -258) vs. [#66] Paul Craig (12-4-0, +212)
Mauricio Rua is the All-Time #8 ranked Light Heavyweight and #35 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Rua (2-1-0)
2018-12-01: W vs. [#52LHW] Tyson Pedro (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:43 of round 3
2018-07-22: L vs. [#3LHW] Anthony Smith (32-14-0) via KO (Elbow) in 1:29 of round 1
2017-03-11: W vs. [#46LHW] Gian Villante (17-11-0) via TKO in 0:59 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Paul Craig (2-1-0)
2019-09-21: W vs. [#160LHW] Vinicius Moreira Castro (9-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:19 of round 1
2019-06-29: L vs. [#48LHW] Alonzo Menifield (9-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:19 of round 1
2019-03-30: W vs. [#86LHW] Kennedy Nzechukwu (7-1-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:20 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Mauricio Rua – Win%: 69.21
Elo Favorite (Standard): Mauricio Rua (1836.81) [+327.87] – Win%: 81.73
Elo Favorite (Modified): Mauricio Rua (1846.21) [+275.63] – Win%: 76.97
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Mauricio Rua (1801.88) [+229.91] – Win%: 85.15
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mauricio Rua 350, Paul Craig 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Mauricio Rua leads 1-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#7] Charles Oliveira (27-8-0, -357) vs. [#106] Jared Gordon (15-3-0, +284)
Charles Oliveira is the All-Time #40 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Charles Oliveira (3-0-0)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#28LW] Nik Lentz (30-10-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 2
2019-02-02: W vs. [#36LW] David Teymur (8-2-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 0:55 of round 2
2018-12-15: W vs. [#27LW] Jim Miller (31-13-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:15 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jared Gordon (1-2-0)
2019-06-29: W vs. [#279LW] Dan Moret (13-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-12-15: L vs. [#111LW] Joaquim Silva (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:39 of round 3
2018-02-18: L vs. [#15LW] Diego Ferreira (16-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:58 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Charles Oliveira – Win%: 75.00
Elo Favorite (Standard): Charles Oliveira (2054.74) [+454.45] – Win%: 88.86
Elo Favorite (Modified): Charles Oliveira (2054.19) [+446.20] – Win%: 87.58
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Charles Oliveira (2038.89) [+426.77] – Win%: 96.01
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Oliveira 182, Jared Gordon 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#92] Andre Muniz (18-4-0, -118) vs. [#123] Antonio Arroyo (9-2-0, -104)

Last 3 Fights: Andre Muniz (3-0-0)
2019-08-06: W vs. [#347MW] Taylor Johnson (5-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 1
2018-08-11: W vs. [#309MW] Bruno Assis (9-4-0) via UD ()
2018-03-24: W vs. [#384HW+] Willyanedson Paiva (8-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 0:38 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Antonio Arroyo (3-0-0)
2019-07-16: W vs. [#251MW] Stephen Regman (9-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:31 of round 2
2018-08-10: W vs. [*] Diego Henrique da Silva (8-4-0) via UD ()
2018-07-12: W vs. [NA] Adriano Miranda da Silva (1-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:30 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Andre Muniz – Win%: 51.49
Elo Favorite (Standard): Andre Muniz (1617.60) [+105.34] – Win%: 61.80
Elo Favorite (Modified): Andre Muniz (1649.56) [+105.45] – Win%: 61.34
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Andre Muniz (1620.95) [+80.21] – Win%: 65.04
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Andre Muniz 102, Antonio Arroyo 123
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#75] Markus Perez (12-2-0, -132) vs. [#135] Wellington Turman (15-3-0, +110)

Last 3 Fights: Markus Perez (2-1-0)
2019-02-02: W vs. [#109MW] Anthony Hernandez (7-1-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 1:07 of round 2
2018-08-25: L vs. [#63MW] Andrew Sanchez (10-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-05-12: W vs. [#248LHW] James Bochnovic (9-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:28 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Wellington Turman (2-1-0)
2019-07-13: L vs. [#41MW] Karl Roberson (9-2-0) via UD ()
2019-04-19: W vs. [#162MW] Marcio Alexandre Jr. (18-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 03:10 of round 1
2018-12-02: W vs. [#474MW] Rafael Atilio (13-4-0) via UD ()

Odds Favorite (Implied): Markus Perez – Win%: 54.43
Elo Favorite (Standard): Markus Perez (1553.18) [+66.60] – Win%: 57.55
Elo Favorite (Modified): Markus Perez (1598.10) [+67.50] – Win%: 57.33
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Markus Perez (1567.66) [+51.11] – Win%: 59.83
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Markus Perez 287, Wellington Turman 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#61] James Krause (26-7-0, -204) vs. [#65] Sergio Moraes (14-5-1, +170)

Last 3 Fights: James Krause (3-0-0)
2018-08-25: W vs. [#54WW] Warlley Alves (13-3-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 2:28 of round 2
2018-01-14: W vs. [#146LW] Alex White (14-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-07-07: W vs. [*] Tom Gallicchio (19-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Sergio Moraes (1-2-0)
2019-05-11: L vs. [#54WW] Warlley Alves (13-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:13 of round 3
2019-03-09: L vs. [#16WW] Anthony Rocco Martin (17-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-09-22: W vs. [#97WW] Ben Saunders (22-12-2) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:35 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): James Krause – Win%: 64.43
Elo Favorite (Standard): James Krause (1833.36) [+132.11] – Win%: 64.65
Elo Favorite (Modified): James Krause (1832.85) [+139.66] – Win%: 64.83
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): James Krause (1838.99) [+155.11] – Win%: 76.05
Days Since Last Pro Fight: James Krause 448, Sergio Moraes 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: James Krause leads 1-0
.

Featherweight (145)
[#65BW] Ricardo Ramos (13-2-0, -249) vs. [#185] Luiz Eduardo Garagorri (13-0-0, +204)

Last 3 Fights: Ricardo Ramos (2-1-0)
2019-06-29: W vs. [#218BW] Journey Newson (10-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-02-02: L vs. [#30BW] Said Nurmagomedov (13-1-0) via TKO (Spinning Back Kick and Punches) in 2:28 of round 1
2018-08-04: W vs. [#66BW] Kyung Ho Kang (16-8-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Luiz Eduardo Garagorri (3-0-0)
2019-08-10: W vs. [#308FW] Humberto Bandenay (14-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-05-18: W vs. [NA] Stevens Diogo (0-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:37 of round 1
2019-03-09: W vs. [NA] Agustin Marquez Tejera (0-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ricardo Ramos – Win%: 68.44
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ricardo Ramos (1686.73) [+113.50] – Win%: 62.68
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ricardo Ramos (1670.73) [+78.49] – Win%: 58.51
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Ricardo Ramos (1633.90) [+6.29] – Win%: 51.20
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ricardo Ramos 140, Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#20] Francisco Trinaldo (23-7-0, -121) vs. [#70] Bobby Green (24-9-1, -101)

Last 3 Fights: Francisco Trinaldo (1-2-0)
2019-07-20: L vs. [#11LW] Alexander Hernandez (11-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-09-22: W vs. [*] Evan Dunham (18-8-1) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 4:10 of round 2
2018-02-18: L vs. [#118WW] James Vick (13-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Bobby Green (1-1-1)
2018-12-15: L vs. [#35LW] Drakkar Klose (11-1-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-01-27: W vs. [#137WW] Erik Koch (16-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-10-07: D vs. [#165LW] Lando Vannata (10-4-2) via Draw (Split) in 5:00 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Francisco Trinaldo – Win%: 52.14
Elo Favorite (Standard): Francisco Trinaldo (1795.47) [+173.07] – Win%: 68.80
Elo Favorite (Modified): Francisco Trinaldo (1791.21) [+147.93] – Win%: 65.65
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Francisco Trinaldo (1766.14) [+113.72] – Win%: 70.24
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Francisco Trinaldo 119, Bobby Green 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#54] Warlley Alves (13-3-0, -108) vs. [#79] Randy Brown (11-3-0, -113)

Last 3 Fights: Warlley Alves (2-1-0)
2019-05-11: W vs. [#65WW] Sergio Moraes (14-5-1) via KO (Punch) in 4:13 of round 3
2018-08-25: L vs. [#61WW] James Krause (26-7-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 2:28 of round 2
2018-05-12: W vs. [#119WW] Sultan Aliev (15-3-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Randy Brown (2-1-0)
2019-06-22: W vs. [#89WW] Bryan Barberena (14-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:54 of round 3
2018-07-14: L vs. [#49WW] Niko Price (14-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:09 of round 2
2017-11-04: W vs. [#157WW] Mickey Gall (6-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Randy Brown – Win%: 50.53
Elo Favorite (Standard): Warlley Alves (1798.82) [+186.74] – Win%: 70.12
Elo Favorite (Modified): Warlley Alves (1796.61) [+161.31] – Win%: 66.95
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Warlley Alves (1763.97) [+113.97] – Win%: 70.26
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Warlley Alves 189, Randy Brown 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Randy Brown leads 1-0
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#55] Douglas Silva de Andrade (25-3-0, -248) vs. [#100] Renan Barao (34-8-0, +204)
Renan Barao is the All-Time #3 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Douglas Silva de Andrade (1-2-0)
2018-12-29: L vs. [#5BW] Petr Yan (13-1-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2018-02-03: W vs. [#15BW] Marlon Vera (16-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-07-08: L vs. [#17BW] Rob Font (16-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:36 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Renan Barao (0-3-0)
2019-02-17: L vs. [#34BW] Luke Sanders (13-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:01 of round 2
2018-09-22: L vs. [#56BW] Andre Ewell (15-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-02-24: L vs. [#29BW] Brian Kelleher (19-10-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Douglas Silva de Andrade – Win%: 68.42
Elo Favorite (Standard): Douglas Silva de Andrade (1590.64) [+178.31] – Win%: 69.31
Elo Favorite (Modified): Douglas Silva de Andrade (1608.66) [+103.67] – Win%: 61.15
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Douglas Silva de Andrade (1561.25) [+64.22] – Win%: 62.31
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Douglas Silva de Andrade 322, Renan Barao 272
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#55] Ariane Lipski (11-5-0, +129) vs. [#71] Veronica Macedo (6-3-1, -155)

Last 3 Fights: Ariane Lipski (1-2-0)
2019-06-22: L vs. [#15FLY] Molly McCann (10-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-01-19: L vs. [#9FLY] Joanne Calderwood (14-4-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
2018-03-03: W vs. [#45SW] Silvana Gomez Juarez (7-2-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Veronica Macedo (1-2-0)
2019-08-10: W vs. [#98FLY] Polyana Viana (10-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:09 of round 1
2019-02-23: L vs. [#28FLY] Gillian Robertson (7-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:27 of round 2
2018-05-19: L vs. [#13FLY] Andrea Lee (11-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Veronica Macedo – Win%: 58.19
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ariane Lipski (1315.82) [+117.32] – Win%: 63.09
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ariane Lipski (1369.55) [+133.68] – Win%: 64.23
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Ariane Lipski (1348.91) [+137.90] – Win%: 75.19
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ariane Lipski 147, Veronica Macedo 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#38FLY] Tracy Cortez (6-1-0, -204) vs. [#26] Vanessa Melo (10-6-0, +171)

Last 3 Fights: Tracy Cortez (3-0-0)
2019-07-30: W vs. [#23FLY] Mariya Agapova (8-1-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 29-27)
2019-02-15: W vs. [#88FLY] Erin Blanchfield (4-1-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2018-09-14: W vs. [#178FLY] Karen Cedillo (4-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:53 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Vanessa Melo (2-1-0)
2019-09-21: L vs. [#6BW] Irene Aldana (11-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#64BW] Jan Finney (11-14-0) via UD ()
2019-05-24: W vs. [#63BW] Mariana Morais (13-10-0) via UD ()

Odds Favorite (Implied): Tracy Cortez – Win%: 64.52
Elo Favorite (Standard): Tracy Cortez (1418.09) [+112.39] – Win%: 62.56
Elo Favorite (Modified): Vanessa Melo (1392.47) [+2.99] – Win%: 50.33
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Vanessa Melo (1384.44) [+23.42] – Win%: 54.58
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tracy Cortez 109, Vanessa Melo 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Favorite rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– The Glicko-1 scores in this post are adjusted to better match the 1000 Elo starter rating for an easier comparison.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Ronaldo Souza
Highest Stored DD Rating: Charles Oliveira
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Ronaldo Souza vs. Jan Blachowicz
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Ronaldo Souza vs. Jan Blachowicz
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Fair [**½]
Run Date: 2019-11-13