Fight Matrix Program- UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz (11-02-2019)

28 Oct , 2019,
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Welterweight (170)
[#4] Jorge Masvidal (34-13-0, -168) vs. [#9] Nate Diaz (20-11-0, +139)
Jorge Masvidal is the All-Time #31 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jorge Masvidal (2-1-0)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#20WW] Ben Askren (19-2-0) via KO (Flying Knee) in 0:05 of round 1
2019-03-16: W vs. [#14MW] Darren Till (17-2-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:05 of round 2
2017-11-04: L vs. [#12WW] Stephen Thompson (14-4-1) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Nate Diaz (2-1-0)
2019-08-17: W vs. [#11WW] Anthony Pettis (22-9-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2016-08-20: L vs. [*] Conor McGregor (21-4-0) via MD (47-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2016-03-05: W vs. [*] Conor McGregor (21-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:12 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Jorge Masvidal – Win%: 59.97
Elo Favorite (Standard): Jorge Masvidal (2152.31) [+71.33] – Win%: 58.08
Elo Favorite (Modified): Jorge Masvidal (2158.80) [+91.98] – Win%: 59.93
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Jorge Masvidal (2160.78) [+92.25] – Win%: 66.52
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jorge Masvidal 119, Nate Diaz 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#7] Kelvin Gastelum (15-4-0, -165) vs. [#14] Darren Till (17-2-1, +137)
Kelvin Gastelum is the All-Time #38 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kelvin Gastelum (2-1-0)
2019-04-13: L vs. [#1MW/#10P4P] Israel Adesanya (18-0-0) via UD (48-46, 48-46, 48-46)
2018-05-12: W vs. [#9MW] Ronaldo Souza (26-7-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-11-25: W vs. [*] Michael Bisping (30-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:30 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Darren Till (1-2-0)
2019-03-16: L vs. [#4WW] Jorge Masvidal (34-13-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:05 of round 2
2018-09-08: L vs. [#2WW/#10DD] Tyron Woodley (19-4-1) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:19 of round 2
2018-05-27: W vs. [#12WW] Stephen Thompson (14-4-1) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Kelvin Gastelum – Win%: 59.60
Elo Favorite (Standard): Kelvin Gastelum (2058.95) [+142.40] – Win%: 65.72
Elo Favorite (Modified): Kelvin Gastelum (2041.07) [+126.07] – Win%: 63.46
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Kelvin Gastelum (2026.87) [+95.42] – Win%: 66.89
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kelvin Gastelum 203, Darren Till 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#12] Stephen Thompson (14-4-1, -152) vs. [#19] Vicente Luque (17-6-1, +126)
Stephen Thompson is the All-Time #12 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Stephen Thompson (1-2-0)
2019-03-23: L vs. [#11WW] Anthony Pettis (22-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:55 of round 2
2018-05-27: L vs. [#14MW] Darren Till (17-2-1) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2017-11-04: W vs. [#4WW] Jorge Masvidal (34-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Vicente Luque (3-0-0)
2019-08-10: W vs. [#26WW] Mike Perry (13-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#110WW] Derrick Krantz (24-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:52 of round 1
2019-02-17: W vs. [#88WW] Bryan Barberena (14-7-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:54 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Stephen Thompson – Win%: 57.68
Elo Favorite (Standard): Vicente Luque (1968.59) [+66.53] – Win%: 57.54
Elo Favorite (Modified): Stephen Thompson (1925.44) [+16.91] – Win%: 51.85
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Vicente Luque (1926.22) [+7.68] – Win%: 51.42
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Stephen Thompson 224, Vicente Luque 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#5] Derrick Lewis (21-7-0, +113) vs. [#13] Blagoy Ivanov (18-2-0, -137)
Derrick Lewis is the All-Time #37 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Derrick Lewis (1-2-0)
2019-03-09: L vs. [#4HW+] Junior dos Santos (21-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:58 of round 2
2018-11-03: L vs. [#2HW+/#8DD/#8P4P] Daniel Cormier (22-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:14 of round 2
2018-10-06: W vs. [#9HW+] Alexander Volkov (30-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:49 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Blagoy Ivanov (2-1-0)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#42HW+] Tai Tuivasa (10-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-03-09: W vs. [#69HW+] Ben Rothwell (36-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-07-14: L vs. [#4HW+] Junior dos Santos (21-6-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Blagoy Ivanov – Win%: 55.18
Elo Favorite (Standard): Derrick Lewis (1965.26) [+33.32] – Win%: 53.80
Elo Favorite (Modified): Derrick Lewis (1969.51) [+15.46] – Win%: 51.69
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Derrick Lewis (1964.08) [+25.39] – Win%: 54.70
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Derrick Lewis 238, Blagoy Ivanov 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#7] Kevin Lee (17-5-0, +142) vs. [#16] Gregor Gillespie (13-0-0, -168)
Kevin Lee is the All-Time #38 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Lee (1-2-0)
2019-05-18: L vs. [#7WW] Rafael dos Anjos (29-12-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:47 of round 4
2018-12-15: L vs. [#13LW] Al Iaquinta (15-6-1) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2018-04-21: W vs. [#14LW] Edson Barboza (20-8-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 2:18 of round 5

Last 3 Fights: Gregor Gillespie (3-0-0)
2019-01-19: W vs. [#46LW] Yancy Medeiros (15-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 2
2018-06-01: W vs. [#72LW] Vinc Pichel (12-2-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:06 of round 2
2018-01-27: W vs. [#83FW] Jordan Rinaldi (14-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:46 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Gregor Gillespie – Win%: 60.27
Elo Favorite (Standard): Kevin Lee (1922.35) [+6.39] – Win%: 50.73
Elo Favorite (Modified): Gregor Gillespie (1900.20) [+12.07] – Win%: 51.32
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Gregor Gillespie (1914.02) [+14.83] – Win%: 52.73
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kevin Lee 168, Gregor Gillespie 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#8] Corey Anderson (12-4-0, +140) vs. [#24] Johnny Walker (17-3-0, -171)
Corey Anderson is the All-Time #40 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Corey Anderson (3-0-0)
2018-12-29: W vs. [#18LHW] Ilir Latifi (14-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-07-22: W vs. [#10LHW] Glover Teixeira (30-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-04-21: W vs. [#60LHW] Patrick Cummins (10-7-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Johnny Walker (3-0-0)
2019-03-02: W vs. [#19LHW] Misha Cirkunov (15-5-0) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 0:38 of round 1
2019-02-02: W vs. [#147LHW] Justin Ledet (9-2-0) via TKO (Spinning Back Fist and Punches) in 0:15 of round 1
2018-11-17: W vs. [#41LHW] Khalil Rountree (8-5-0) via KO (Elbow) in 1:57 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Johnny Walker – Win%: 60.22
Elo Favorite (Standard): Corey Anderson (1955.04) [+180.09] – Win%: 69.48
Elo Favorite (Modified): Corey Anderson (1976.02) [+195.99] – Win%: 70.22
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Corey Anderson (1923.41) [+111.24] – Win%: 69.64
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Corey Anderson 308, Johnny Walker 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#36] Shane Burgos (12-1-0, -200) vs. [#39] Makwan Amirkhani (15-3-0, +164)

Last 3 Fights: Shane Burgos (2-1-0)
2019-05-04: W vs. [#24FW] Cub Swanson (26-11-0) via SD (30-27, 27-30, 29-28)
2018-11-03: W vs. [#190LW] Kurt Holobaugh (17-7-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:11 of round 1
2018-01-20: L vs. [#10FW] Calvin Kattar (20-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:32 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Makwan Amirkhani (2-1-0)
2019-06-01: W vs. [#122FW] Chris Fishgold (18-3-1) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 4:25 of round 2
2018-05-27: W vs. [#72FW] Jason Knight (20-6-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2017-03-18: L vs. [#32FW] Arnold Allen (15-1-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Shane Burgos – Win%: 63.76
Elo Favorite (Standard): Shane Burgos (1819.52) [+99.36] – Win%: 61.16
Elo Favorite (Modified): Shane Burgos (1766.18) [+47.10] – Win%: 55.14
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Makwan Amirkhani (1755.25) [+5.44] – Win%: 51.01
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Shane Burgos 182, Makwan Amirkhani 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[*] Brad Tavares (17-5-0, +131) vs. [#41] Edmen Shahbazyan (10-0-0, -160)

Last 3 Fights: Brad Tavares (2-1-0)
2018-07-06: L vs. [#1MW/#10P4P] Israel Adesanya (18-0-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2018-04-14: W vs. [#24MW] Krzysztof Jotko (21-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:16 of round 3
2017-10-07: W vs. [*] Thales Leites (28-9-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Edmen Shahbazyan (3-0-0)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#101MW] Jack Marshman (23-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:12 of round 1
2019-03-02: W vs. [#129MW] Charles Byrd (10-6-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 0:38 of round 1
2018-11-30: W vs. [#49MW] Darren Stewart (11-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Edmen Shahbazyan – Win%: 58.70
Elo Favorite (Standard): Brad Tavares (1847.40) [+157.37] – Win%: 67.24
Elo Favorite (Modified): Brad Tavares (1828.43) [+175.87] – Win%: 68.35
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Brad Tavares (1821.93) [+134.61] – Win%: 73.12
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brad Tavares 484, Edmen Shahbazyan 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#31] Andrei Arlovski (28-18-0, +152) vs. [#50] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (8-0-0, -184)
Andrei Arlovski is the All-Time #20 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Andrei Arlovski (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#69HW+] Ben Rothwell (36-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-04-27: L vs. [#26HW+] Augusto Sakai (14-1-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-12-29: NC vs. [#12HW+] Walt Harris (13-7-0)

Last 3 Fights: Jairzinho Rozenstruik (3-0-0)
2019-06-22: W vs. [#140HW+] Allen Crowder (10-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:09 of round 1
2019-02-02: W vs. [#71HW+] Junior Albini (14-6-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 0:54 of round 2
2018-12-27: W vs. [NA] Robert McCarthy (4-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:10 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Jairzinho Rozenstruik – Win%: 62.01
Elo Favorite (Standard): Andrei Arlovski (1617.62) [+49.34] – Win%: 55.61
Elo Favorite (Modified): Andrei Arlovski (1692.39) [+109.02] – Win%: 61.71
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Andrei Arlovski (1676.50) [+122.28] – Win%: 72.03
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Andrei Arlovski 105, Jairzinho Rozenstruik 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#2] Katlyn Chookagian (12-2-0, -151) vs. [#4] Jennifer Maia (17-5-1, +122)
Jennifer Maia is the All-Time #22 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Katlyn Chookagian (2-1-0)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#9FLY] Joanne Calderwood (14-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-12-08: L vs. [#5FLY] Jessica Eye (14-7-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-07-28: W vs. [#15FLY] Alexis Davis (19-10-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jennifer Maia (2-1-0)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#19FLY] Roxanne Modafferi (23-16-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-03-23: W vs. [#15FLY] Alexis Davis (19-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-07-14: L vs. [#3FLY] Liz Carmouche (13-7-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Katlyn Chookagian – Win%: 57.18
Elo Favorite (Standard): Jennifer Maia (1687.54) [+68.30] – Win%: 57.74
Elo Favorite (Modified): Katlyn Chookagian (1677.98) [+23.68] – Win%: 52.59
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Katlyn Chookagian (1669.27) [+26.58] – Win%: 54.94
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Katlyn Chookagian 147, Jennifer Maia 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#50] Chance Rencountre (15-3-0, +106) vs. [#64] Lyman Good (20-5-0, -134)

Last 3 Fights: Chance Rencountre (2-1-0)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#41WW] Ismail Naurdiev (19-3-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-01-19: W vs. [#190WW] Kyle Stewart (11-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:25 of round 1
2018-06-01: L vs. [#30WW] Belal Muhammad (16-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Lyman Good (1-2-0)
2019-02-02: L vs. [#8WW] Demian Maia (28-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:38 of round 1
2018-11-03: W vs. [#96WW] Ben Saunders (22-12-2) via KO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 1
2017-07-22: L vs. [#35WW] Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (21-6-0) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 28-29)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Lyman Good – Win%: 54.12
Elo Favorite (Standard): Chance Rencountre (1760.30) [+57.08] – Win%: 56.48
Elo Favorite (Modified): Lyman Good (1752.20) [+2.41] – Win%: 50.26
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Lyman Good (1754.82) [+26.91] – Win%: 55.10
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chance Rencountre 119, Lyman Good 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#78] Julio Arce (16-3-0, +119) vs. [#102] Hakeem Dawodu (10-1-1, -148)

Last 3 Fights: Julio Arce (2-1-0)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#180FW] Julian Erosa (22-8-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:49 of round 3
2018-11-03: L vs. [#108FW] Sheymon Moraes (11-4-0) via SD (29-28, 30-26, 28-29)
2018-06-01: W vs. [#277FW] Daniel Teymur (7-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:55 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Hakeem Dawodu (3-0-0)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#299FW] Yoshinori Horie (8-2-0) via TKO (Head Kick) in 4:09 of round 3
2018-12-08: W vs. [#189FW] Kyle Bochniak (8-5-0) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 28-29)
2018-07-28: W vs. [#250FW] Austin Arnett (16-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Hakeem Dawodu – Win%: 56.65
Elo Favorite (Standard): Hakeem Dawodu (1665.47) [+5.39] – Win%: 50.62
Elo Favorite (Modified): Julio Arce (1725.84) [+64.30] – Win%: 56.99
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Julio Arce (1725.01) [+93.50] – Win%: 66.99
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Julio Arce 168, Hakeem Dawodu 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Favorite rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– The Glicko-1 scores in this post are adjusted to better match the 1000 Elo starter rating for an easier comparison.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Jorge Masvidal
Highest Stored DD Rating: Jorge Masvidal
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Jorge Masvidal vs. Nate Diaz
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Jorge Masvidal vs. Nate Diaz
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Large [***½]
Run Date: 2019-10-27