Fight Matrix Program- UFC on ESPN 6: Weidman vs. Reyes (10-18-2019)

14 Oct , 2019,
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#11MW] Chris Weidman (14-4-0, +135) vs. [#9] Dominick Reyes (11-0-0, -162)
Chris Weidman is the All-Time #18 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Chris Weidman (1-2-0)
2018-11-03: L vs. [#9MW] Ronaldo Souza (26-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:46 of round 3
2017-07-22: W vs. [#7MW] Kelvin Gastelum (15-4-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:45 of round 3
2017-04-08: L vs. [#6MW] Gegard Mousasi (46-7-2) via TKO (Knees) in 3:13 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Dominick Reyes (3-0-0)
2019-03-16: W vs. [#10LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (16-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-10-06: W vs. [#18LHW] Ovince St. Preux (24-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-05-19: W vs. [#8MW] Jared Cannonier (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:55 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Dominick Reyes – Win%: 59.23
Elo Favorite (Standard): Chris Weidman (1983.66) [+110.40] – Win%: 62.35
Elo Favorite (Modified): Chris Weidman (2005.17) [+183.36] – Win%: 69.06
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Chris Weidman (2015.71) [+189.44] – Win%: 80.24
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chris Weidman 349, Dominick Reyes 216
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#9] Jeremy Stephens (28-16-0, -109) vs. [#28] Yair Rodriguez (11-2-0, -115)
Jeremy Stephens is the All-Time #17 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jeremy Stephens (0-2-0, 1 NC)
2019-09-21: NC vs. [#28FW] Yair Rodriguez (11-2-0)
2019-03-02: L vs. [#8FW] Zabit Magomedsharipov (17-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-07-28: L vs. [#3FW] Jose Aldo (28-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:19 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Yair Rodriguez (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2019-09-21: NC vs. [#9FW] Jeremy Stephens (28-16-0)
2018-11-10: W vs. [#15FW] Chan Sung Jung (15-5-0) via KO (Elbow) in 4:59 of round 5
2017-05-13: L vs. [#6FW] Frankie Edgar (23-7-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Yair Rodriguez – Win%: 50.63
Elo Favorite (Standard): Yair Rodriguez (1870.78) [+50.18] – Win%: 55.71
Elo Favorite (Modified): Jeremy Stephens (1825.13) [+17.61] – Win%: 51.93
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Jeremy Stephens (1845.52) [+28.92] – Win%: 55.39
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jeremy Stephens 27, Yair Rodriguez 27
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#106] Greg Hardy (5-1-0, -257) vs. [#139] Ben Sosoli (7-2-0, +203)

Last 3 Fights: Greg Hardy (2-1-0)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#161HW+] Juan Adams (5-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:45 of round 1
2019-04-27: W vs. [#338HW+] Dmitry Smoliakov (9-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:15 of round 1
2019-01-19: L vs. [#140HW+] Allen Crowder (10-4-0) via DQ (Illegal Knee to Grounded Fighter) in 2:28 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ben Sosoli (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2019-08-27: NC vs. [#215HW+] Dustin Joynson (5-0-0)
2019-03-29: W vs. [#315HW+] Kelvin Fitial (15-9-2) via TKO in of round 1
2018-03-10: W vs. [*] Mike Turner (7-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Greg Hardy – Win%: 68.56
Elo Favorite (Standard): Greg Hardy (1406.29) [+46.25] – Win%: 55.26
Elo Favorite (Modified): Greg Hardy (1587.05) [+231.19] – Win%: 73.34
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Greg Hardy (1459.00) [+70.83] – Win%: 63.67
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Greg Hardy 90, Ben Sosoli 52
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[*] Joe Lauzon (27-15-0, -105) vs. [#275] Jonathan Pearce (9-3-0, -120)

Last 3 Fights: Joe Lauzon (0-3-0)
2018-04-07: L vs. [*] Chris Gruetzemacher (14-3-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2017-11-11: L vs. [#56LW] Clay Guida (35-19-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 1:07 of round 1
2017-04-22: L vs. [#57LW] Stevie Ray (22-9-0) via MD (28-27, 29-27, 28-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jonathan Pearce (3-0-0)
2019-07-09: W vs. [#495LW] Jacob Rosales (11-5-0) via TKO (Punch) in 1:50 of round 3
2018-09-21: W vs. [#2256LW] Dedrek Sanders (3-2-0) via TKO in 5:00 of round 2
2017-12-16: W vs. [NA] Nick Baker (4-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:12 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Jonathan Pearce – Win%: 51.57
Elo Favorite (Standard): Joe Lauzon (1508.12) [+105.37] – Win%: 61.81
Elo Favorite (Modified): Joe Lauzon (1522.65) [+77.35] – Win%: 58.38
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Joe Lauzon (1499.54) [+59.77] – Win%: 61.49
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joe Lauzon 559, Jonathan Pearce 101
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#14] Maycee Barber (7-0-0, -141) vs. [#17] Gillian Robertson (7-3-0, +113)

Last 3 Fights: Maycee Barber (3-0-0)
2019-03-23: W vs. [#39FLY] J.J. Aldrich (8-3-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 3:01 of round 2
2018-11-10: W vs. [#32SW] Hannah Cifers (10-3-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 2:01 of round 2
2018-07-17: W vs. [#80SW] Jamie Colleen (5-3-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:15 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Gillian Robertson (2-1-0)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#40FLY] Sarah Frota (9-2-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:13 of round 2
2019-02-23: W vs. [#70FLY] Veronica Macedo (6-3-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:27 of round 2
2018-09-22: L vs. [#15FLY] Mayra Bueno Silva (5-0-0) via Submission (Ambar) in 4:55 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Maycee Barber – Win%: 55.48
Elo Favorite (Standard): Maycee Barber (1540.09) [+105.46] – Win%: 61.82
Elo Favorite (Modified): Maycee Barber (1586.86) [+135.39] – Win%: 64.40
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Maycee Barber (1546.44) [+86.43] – Win%: 66.15
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Maycee Barber 209, Gillian Robertson 83
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#53] Darren Stewart (10-4-0, -113) vs. [#73] Deron Winn (6-0-0, -111)

Last 3 Fights: Darren Stewart (2-1-0)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#172MW] Bevon Lewis (6-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-11-30: L vs. [#41MW] Edmen Shahbazyan (10-0-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-09-08: W vs. [#129MW] Charles Byrd (10-6-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 2:17 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Deron Winn (3-0-0)
2019-06-22: W vs. [#81MW] Eric Spicely (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-11-24: W vs. [#190LHW] Tom Lawlor (10-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-05-12: W vs. [NA] Ahmed White (0-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:32 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Darren Stewart – Win%: 50.20
Elo Favorite (Standard): Darren Stewart (1506.08) [+15.07] – Win%: 51.72
Elo Favorite (Modified): Darren Stewart (1596.94) [+45.16] – Win%: 54.93
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Darren Stewart (1561.06) [+56.74] – Win%: 60.86
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Darren Stewart 132, Deron Winn 118
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#127] Manny Bermudez (14-1-0, -178) vs. [*] Charles Rosa (11-3-0, +146)

Last 3 Fights: Manny Bermudez (2-1-0)
2019-08-17: L vs. [#28BW] Casey Kenney (13-1-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-02-17: W vs. [#120BW] Benito Lopez (10-1-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:09 of round 1
2018-07-22: W vs. [#530BW] Davey Grant (10-4-0) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 0:59 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Charles Rosa (1-2-0)
2017-04-08: L vs. [#33FW] Shane Burgos (12-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:59 of round 3
2016-01-17: W vs. [#184FW] Kyle Bochniak (8-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2015-06-13: L vs. [#28FW] Yair Rodriguez (11-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Manny Bermudez – Win%: 61.16
Elo Favorite (Standard): Manny Bermudez (1626.80) [+242.98] – Win%: 75.22
Elo Favorite (Modified): Manny Bermudez (1632.96) [+187.37] – Win%: 69.43
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Manny Bermudez (1607.23) [+169.97] – Win%: 78.96
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Manny Bermudez 62, Charles Rosa 923
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#20] Molly McCann (9-2-0, -337) vs. [#114] Diana Belbita (13-4-0, +260)

Last 3 Fights: Molly McCann (2-1-0)
2019-06-22: W vs. [#56FLY] Ariane Lipski (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-03-16: W vs. [#73FLY] Priscila Cachoeira (8-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-05-27: L vs. [#17FLY] Gillian Robertson (7-3-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:05 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Diana Belbita (3-0-0)
2019-05-13: W vs. [#184FLY] Ana Maria Pal (2-3-0) via SUB in of round 2
2018-12-10: W vs. [NA] Milena Bojic (0-2-0) via TKO in 0:17 of round 1
2018-08-20: W vs. [#184FLY] Ana Maria Pal (2-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:35 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Molly McCann – Win%: 73.51
Elo Favorite (Standard): Molly McCann (1470.53) [+190.08] – Win%: 70.44
Elo Favorite (Modified): Molly McCann (1470.04) [+170.57] – Win%: 67.85
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Molly McCann (1437.92) [+115.65] – Win%: 71.30
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Molly McCann 118, Diana Belbita 158
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Molly McCann leads 1-0
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Bantamweight (135)
[#486] Boston Salmon (6-2-0, -138) vs. [#1233] Randy Costa (4-1-0, +110)

Last 3 Fights: Boston Salmon (1-2-0)
2019-04-13: L vs. [#93BW] Khalid Taha (14-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:25 of round 1
2017-07-11: W vs. [#353BW] Ricky Turcios (9-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2016-09-09: L vs. [*] Zac Riley (5-5-0) via SD ()

Last 3 Fights: Randy Costa (2-1-0)
2019-04-13: L vs. [#221FW] Brandon Davis (10-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:12 of round 2
2019-01-26: W vs. [NA] Rob Fuller (0-9-0) via TKO in 0:42 of round 1
2018-11-03: W vs. [NA] Chris Thorne (4-12-0) via TKO in of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Boston Salmon – Win%: 54.90
Elo Favorite (Standard): Boston Salmon (1331.56) [+190.05] – Win%: 70.44
Elo Favorite (Modified): Boston Salmon (1398.29) [+211.43] – Win%: 71.62
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Boston Salmon (1339.46) [+149.86] – Win%: 76.96
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Boston Salmon 188, Randy Costa 188
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#146] Sean Woodson (6-0-0, +108) vs. [#184] Kyle Bochniak (8-4-0, -136)

Last 3 Fights: Sean Woodson (3-0-0)
2019-07-23: W vs. [#264FW] Terrance McKinney (7-2-0) via KO (Flying Knee) in 1:49 of round 2
2018-11-02: W vs. [#1262LW] Rashard Lovelace (4-2-0) via UD ()
2017-09-22: W vs. [#1599LW] Seth Basler (3-11-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Kyle Bochniak (1-2-0)
2018-12-08: L vs. [#102FW] Hakeem Dawodu (10-1-1) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 28-29)
2018-04-07: L vs. [#8FW] Zabit Magomedsharipov (17-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-01-20: W vs. [#221FW] Brandon Davis (10-8-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Kyle Bochniak – Win%: 54.51
Elo Favorite (Standard): Sean Woodson (1422.54) [+43.90] – Win%: 55.00
Elo Favorite (Modified): Sean Woodson (1503.66) [+71.45] – Win%: 57.76
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Kyle Bochniak (1441.49) [+14.41] – Win%: 52.83
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean Woodson 87, Kyle Bochniak 314
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#92] Court McGee (19-8-0, +198) vs. [#167] Sean Brady (10-0-0, -252)

Last 3 Fights: Court McGee (1-2-0)
2019-04-27: L vs. [#83WW] Dhiego Lima (15-7-0) via SD (28-29, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-10-27: W vs. [#99WW] Alex Garcia (15-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-28, 29-28)
2017-11-11: L vs. [#58WW] Sean Strickland (20-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Sean Brady (3-0-0)
2019-02-16: W vs. [#411WW] Tajuddin Abdul Hakim (8-2-0) via TKO in 3:36 of round 4
2018-09-14: W vs. [#759WW] Gilbert Urbina (5-1-0) via UD ()
2018-03-17: W vs. [*] Colton Smith (7-5-0) via UD ()

Odds Favorite (Implied): Sean Brady – Win%: 68.08
Elo Favorite (Standard): Sean Brady (1652.48) [+72.90] – Win%: 58.25
Elo Favorite (Modified): Sean Brady (1692.76) [+66.20] – Win%: 57.20
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Sean Brady (1640.68) [+5.57] – Win%: 51.06
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Court McGee 174, Sean Brady 244
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#44] Kevin Holland (16-4-0, -154) vs. [#85] Brendan Allen (12-3-0, +126)

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Holland (3-0-0)
2019-06-22: W vs. [#97MW] Alessio Di Chirico (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-03-30: W vs. [#45MW] Gerald Meerschaert (30-12-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2018-11-24: W vs. [#144MW] John Phillips (22-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:05 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Brendan Allen (3-0-0)
2019-07-16: W vs. [#267MW] Aaron Jeffery (7-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:23 of round 1
2019-02-22: W vs. [#282MW] Moses Murrietta (8-3-0) via UD ()
2018-09-21: W vs. [#274MW] Tim Hiley (7-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:16 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Kevin Holland – Win%: 57.80
Elo Favorite (Standard): Kevin Holland (1799.04) [+207.21] – Win%: 72.05
Elo Favorite (Modified): Kevin Holland (1745.21) [+120.34] – Win%: 62.87
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Kevin Holland (1747.01) [+113.64] – Win%: 70.28
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kevin Holland 118, Brendan Allen 94
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#72] Tanner Boser (16-5-1, -146) vs. [*] Daniel Spitz (6-2-0, +118)

Last 3 Fights: Tanner Boser (1-1-1)
2019-05-24: W vs. [#322HW+] Jared Kilkenny (13-12-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 2:17 of round 4
2019-03-30: D vs. [#126HW+] Zaur Gadzhibabayev (7-3-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2018-11-10: L vs. [#43HW+] Salimgerey Rasulov (17-7-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Spitz (1-2-0)
2018-06-01: L vs. [#12HW+] Walt Harris (13-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 2
2017-09-16: W vs. [#81HW+] Anthony Hamilton (18-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:24 of round 1
2017-03-04: L vs. [#114HW+] Mark Godbeer (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Tanner Boser – Win%: 56.40
Elo Favorite (Standard): Tanner Boser (1482.49) [+186.98] – Win%: 70.15
Elo Favorite (Modified): Tanner Boser (1530.35) [+147.55] – Win%: 65.61
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Tanner Boser (1484.42) [+123.33] – Win%: 72.66
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tanner Boser 147, Daniel Spitz 504
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Favorite rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– The Glicko-1 scores in this post are adjusted to better match the 1000 Elo starter rating for an easier comparison.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Chris Weidman
Highest Stored DD Rating: Jeremy Stephens
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Chris Weidman vs. Dominick Reyes
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Jeremy Stephens vs. Yair Rodriguez
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Low [**]
Run Date: 2019-10-13