Fight Matrix Program- UFC on ESPN+ 19: Joanna vs. Waterson (10-12-2019)

7 Oct , 2019,
jcs
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#4/#9DD] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (15-3-0, -395) vs. [#6] Michelle Waterson (17-6-0, +304)
Joanna Jedrzejczyk is the All-Time #4 ranked Women’s fighter.
Michelle Waterson is the All-Time #37 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Joanna Jedrzejczyk (1-2-0)
2018-12-08: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#2P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (18-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2018-07-28: W vs. [#19SW] Tecia Torres (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-04-07: L vs. [#3SW/#8DD/#8P4P] Rose Namajunas (8-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Michelle Waterson (3-0-0)
2019-03-30: W vs. [#20SW] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-10-06: W vs. [#22SW] Felice Herrig (14-8-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-26)
2018-04-14: W vs. [#18SW] Cortney Casey (8-7-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Joanna Jedrzejczyk – Win%: 76.32
Elo Favorite (Standard): Michelle Waterson (1653.26) [+23.75] – Win%: 52.71
Elo Favorite (Modified): Joanna Jedrzejczyk (1648.80) [+32.14] – Win%: 53.51
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Joanna Jedrzejczyk (1651.97) [+37.26] – Win%: 56.87
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joanna Jedrzejczyk 308, Michelle Waterson 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Joanna Jedrzejczyk leads 3-2
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Featherweight (145)
[#35] Cub Swanson (25-11-0, +159) vs. [#37] Kron Gracie (5-0-0, -196)
Cub Swanson is the All-Time #15 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cub Swanson (0-3-0)
2019-05-04: L vs. [#33FW] Shane Burgos (12-1-0) via SD (30-27, 27-30, 29-28)
2018-08-04: L vs. [#19FW] Renato Carneiro (13-3-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:15 of round 1
2018-04-21: L vs. [#6FW] Frankie Edgar (23-7-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Kron Gracie (3-0-0)
2019-02-17: W vs. [#94FW] Alex Caceres (15-12-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:06 of round 1
2016-12-31: W vs. [#211LW] Tatsuya Kawajiri (37-13-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:05 of round 2
2016-09-25: W vs. [*] Hideo Tokoro (34-30-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 9:49 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Kron Gracie – Win%: 63.16
Elo Favorite (Standard): Cub Swanson (1680.82) [+134.61] – Win%: 64.91
Elo Favorite (Modified): Cub Swanson (1734.23) [+73.56] – Win%: 57.98
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Cub Swanson (1699.78) [+96.17] – Win%: 67.58
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cub Swanson 161, Kron Gracie 237
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#191] Thomas Gifford (15-8-0, +202) vs. [#219] Brok Weaver (14-4-0, -252)

Last 3 Fights: Thomas Gifford (2-1-0)
2019-04-27: L vs. [#115LW] Roosevelt Roberts (8-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-10-20: W vs. [#348LW] Christopher Brown (4-1-0) via SD ()
2018-07-28: W vs. [#300LW] Trey Ogden (12-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:04 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Brok Weaver (3-0-0)
2019-08-13: W vs. [#515WW] Devin Smyth (9-2-0) via UD ()
2019-02-07: W vs. [#1114WW] James Freeman (6-3-0) via DQ in 3:27 of round 1
2018-12-21: W vs. [#281MW] Tyler Hill (10-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:41 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Brok Weaver – Win%: 68.37
Elo Favorite (Standard): Brok Weaver (1533.11) [+31.36] – Win%: 53.58
Elo Favorite (Modified): Thomas Gifford (1485.55) [+33.47] – Win%: 53.66
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Thomas Gifford (1534.26) [+82.31] – Win%: 65.01
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Thomas Gifford 168, Brok Weaver 60
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Thomas Gifford leads 1-0
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Women Strawweight (115)
[*] Mackenzie Dern (7-0-0, -165) vs. [#29] Amanda Ribas (7-1-0, +137)

Last 3 Fights: Mackenzie Dern (3-0-0)
2018-05-12: W vs. [#70FLY] Amanda Bobby Cooper (4-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:27 of round 1
2018-03-03: W vs. [#34SW] Ashley Yoder (7-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2017-12-08: W vs. [*] Kaline Medeiros (9-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:45 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Ribas (2-1-0)
2019-06-29: W vs. [#52SW] Emily Whitmire (4-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:10 of round 2
2016-05-21: W vs. [#45SW] Jennifer Gonzalez Araneda (12-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:42 of round 2
2015-11-28: L vs. [#100FLY] Polyana Viana (10-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:45 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Mackenzie Dern – Win%: 59.60
Elo Favorite (Standard): Mackenzie Dern (1484.06) [+107.14] – Win%: 62.00
Elo Favorite (Modified): Mackenzie Dern (1514.25) [+68.87] – Win%: 57.48
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Mackenzie Dern (1460.20) [+17.50] – Win%: 53.35
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mackenzie Dern 518, Amanda Ribas 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#135] Luis Pena (7-1-0, -165) vs. [#151] Matt Frevola (7-1-1, +137)

Last 3 Fights: Luis Pena (2-1-0)
2019-06-22: W vs. [#518LW] Matt Wiman (16-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:14 of round 3
2019-03-23: W vs. [#146FW] Steven Peterson (18-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-11-10: L vs. [#145FW] Michael Trizano (8-1-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Matt Frevola (1-1-1)
2019-04-13: W vs. [#277LW] Jalin Turner (8-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-11-03: D vs. [#164LW] Lando Vannata (10-4-2) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2018-01-14: L vs. [#428FW] Marco Polo Reyes (8-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:00 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Luis Pena – Win%: 59.60
Elo Favorite (Standard): Luis Pena (1635.00) [+135.36] – Win%: 64.99
Elo Favorite (Modified): Luis Pena (1698.43) [+188.17] – Win%: 69.50
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Luis Pena (1668.46) [+165.26] – Win%: 77.95
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Luis Pena 112, Matt Frevola 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#34] Eryk Anders (12-4-0, -193) vs. [#45] Gerald Meerschaert (29-11-0, +160)

Last 3 Fights: Eryk Anders (1-2-0)
2019-06-29: W vs. [#153LHW] Vinicius Moreira Castro (9-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:18 of round 1
2019-04-13: L vs. [#41LHW] Khalil Rountree (8-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2018-12-08: L vs. [#23MW] Elias Theodorou (16-3-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

Last 3 Fights: Gerald Meerschaert (1-2-0)
2019-08-03: W vs. [#135MW] Trevin Giles (11-2-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:49 of round 3
2019-03-30: L vs. [#44MW] Kevin Holland (16-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2018-12-15: L vs. [#10MW] Jack Hermansson (20-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:25 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Eryk Anders – Win%: 63.13
Elo Favorite (Standard): Gerald Meerschaert (1692.31) [+137.36] – Win%: 65.19
Elo Favorite (Modified): Gerald Meerschaert (1749.53) [+111.74] – Win%: 61.99
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Gerald Meerschaert (1716.33) [+115.30] – Win%: 71.17
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Eryk Anders 105, Gerald Meerschaert 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#36LW] James Vick (13-4-0, +151) vs. [#71] Niko Price (13-3-0, -184)

Last 3 Fights: James Vick (0-3-0)
2019-07-20: L vs. [#8LW] Dan Hooker (19-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:33 of round 1
2019-02-17: L vs. [#9LW] Paul Felder (17-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-08-25: L vs. [#4LW] Justin Gaethje (21-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:27 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Niko Price (1-2-0)
2019-07-27: L vs. [#32WW] Geoff Neal (12-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:39 of round 2
2019-03-09: W vs. [#81WW] Tim Means (28-11-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:50 of round 1
2018-09-08: L vs. [#74WW] Abdul Razak Alhassan (10-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:43 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Niko Price – Win%: 61.92
Elo Favorite (Standard): James Vick (1707.06) [+64.56] – Win%: 57.32
Elo Favorite (Modified): James Vick (1707.91) [+32.28] – Win%: 53.53
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): James Vick (1702.04) [+37.64] – Win%: 57.13
Days Since Last Pro Fight: James Vick 84, Niko Price 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#14] Ryan Spann (16-5-0, -157) vs. [#52] Devin Clark (10-3-0, +130)

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Spann (3-0-0)
2019-05-11: W vs. [#22LHW] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (23-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:07 of round 1
2018-09-22: W vs. [#53HW+] Luis Henrique Barbosa de (12-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-06-19: W vs. [#30LHW] Emiliano Sordi (19-8-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:26 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Devin Clark (2-1-0)
2019-06-01: W vs. [#111LHW] Darko Stosic (13-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-12-08: L vs. [#17LHW] Aleksandar Rakic (12-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:05 of round 1
2018-04-07: W vs. [#116LHW] Mike Rodriguez (10-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ryan Spann – Win%: 58.42
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ryan Spann (1772.17) [+172.92] – Win%: 68.79
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ryan Spann (1791.57) [+176.70] – Win%: 68.43
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Ryan Spann (1789.68) [+190.53] – Win%: 80.97
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ryan Spann 154, Devin Clark 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ryan Spann leads 1-0
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Welterweight (170)
[#58] Max Griffin (15-6-0, -129) vs. [#61] Alex Morono (16-5-0, +105)

Last 3 Fights: Max Griffin (1-2-0)
2019-04-13: W vs. [#377WW] Zelim Imadaev (8-1-0) via MD (28-28, 29-27, 29-27)
2019-02-02: L vs. [#79WW] Thiago Alves (23-14-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-07-07: L vs. [#44WW] Curtis Millender (17-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Alex Morono (2-1-0)
2019-03-09: W vs. [#135WW] Zak Ottow (17-7-0) via Verbal Submission (Elbows) in 3:34 of round 1
2018-11-24: W vs. [#100WW] Kenan Song (15-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-07-28: L vs. [#52WW] Jordan Mein (31-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Max Griffin – Win%: 53.59
Elo Favorite (Standard): Alex Morono (1684.95) [+73.04] – Win%: 58.26
Elo Favorite (Modified): Alex Morono (1693.53) [+50.56] – Win%: 55.51
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Alex Morono (1689.87) [+63.17] – Win%: 61.86
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Max Griffin 182, Alex Morono 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Flyweight (125)
[#3] Deiveson Figueiredo (16-1-0, -235) vs. [*] Tim Elliott (15-8-1, +187)
Deiveson Figueiredo is the All-Time #19 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Tim Elliott is the All-Time #46 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Deiveson Figueiredo (2-1-0)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#4FLY] Alexandre Pantoja (21-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-03-23: L vs. [#2FLY] Jussier Formiga (23-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-08-25: W vs. [#12FLY] John Moraga (19-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:08 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Tim Elliott (2-1-0)
2017-12-30: W vs. [#45FLY] Mark De La Rosa (11-3-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 1:41 of round 2
2017-06-10: L vs. [#134BW] Ben Nguyen (16-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:49 of round 1
2017-04-15: W vs. [#122BW] Louis Smolka (16-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Deiveson Figueiredo – Win%: 66.81
Elo Favorite (Standard): Deiveson Figueiredo (1887.95) [+105.35] – Win%: 61.80
Elo Favorite (Modified): Deiveson Figueiredo (1857.52) [+81.36] – Win%: 58.81
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Deiveson Figueiredo (1874.25) [+103.84] – Win%: 68.35
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Deiveson Figueiredo 77, Tim Elliott 651
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#315] Miguel Baeza (7-0-0, -212) vs. [#1186] Hector Aldana (4-2-0, +170)

Last 3 Fights: Miguel Baeza (3-0-0)
2019-06-25: W vs. [#383MW] Victor Reyna (10-4-0) via UD ()
2018-12-15: W vs. [#794LW] Matthew Colquhoun (6-4-0) via KO in 3:31 of round 1
2017-09-01: W vs. [*] Leo Valdivia (5-4-0) via SD ()

Last 3 Fights: Hector Aldana (1-2-0)
2018-11-17: L vs. [#62WW] Laureano Staropoli (9-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-06-23: L vs. [#100WW] Kenan Song (15-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:42 of round 2
2013-11-16: W vs. [NA] Ivest Samayoa (0-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Miguel Baeza – Win%: 64.72
Elo Favorite (Standard): Miguel Baeza (1465.32) [+316.62] – Win%: 80.95
Elo Favorite (Modified): Miguel Baeza (1464.23) [+251.95] – Win%: 75.08
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Miguel Baeza (1419.50) [+193.82] – Win%: 81.93
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Miguel Baeza 109, Hector Aldana 329
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#46] Marvin Vettori (13-4-1, -301) vs. [#50] Andrew Sanchez (10-4-0, +239)

Last 3 Fights: Marvin Vettori (1-1-1)
2019-07-13: W vs. [#58MW] Cezar Ferreira (13-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-04-14: L vs. [#1MW/#10DD/#10P4P] Israel Adesanya (18-0-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2017-12-30: D vs. [#17MW] Omari Akhmedov (19-4-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Andrew Sanchez (2-1-0)
2019-05-04: W vs. [#67MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (11-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-08-25: W vs. [#76MW] Markus Perez (12-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-12-01: L vs. [*] Ryan Janes (10-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:58 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Marvin Vettori – Win%: 71.78
Elo Favorite (Standard): Andrew Sanchez (1716.01) [+25.69] – Win%: 52.93
Elo Favorite (Modified): Andrew Sanchez (1743.13) [+2.22] – Win%: 50.24
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Marvin Vettori (1743.48) [+49.25] – Win%: 59.22
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marvin Vettori 91, Andrew Sanchez 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#50] J.J. Aldrich (7-3-0, -176) vs. [#137] Lauren Mueller (5-2-0, +145)

Last 3 Fights: J.J. Aldrich (2-1-0)
2019-03-23: L vs. [#16FLY] Maycee Barber (7-0-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 3:01 of round 2
2018-08-04: W vs. [#100FLY] Polyana Viana (10-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-01-14: W vs. [#28SW] Danielle Taylor (10-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Lauren Mueller (1-2-0)
2019-04-13: L vs. [#37FLY] Poliana Botelho (8-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-11-24: L vs. [#46BW] Yanan Wu (9-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:00 of round 1
2018-04-14: W vs. [#156FLY] Shana Dobson (3-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): J.J. Aldrich – Win%: 60.97
Elo Favorite (Standard): J.J. Aldrich (1412.38) [+265.37] – Win%: 77.07
Elo Favorite (Modified): J.J. Aldrich (1454.72) [+245.59] – Win%: 74.55
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): J.J. Aldrich (1408.16) [+204.63] – Win%: 83.36
Days Since Last Pro Fight: J.J. Aldrich 203, Lauren Mueller 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#25] Marlon Vera (15-5-1, -189) vs. [#50] Andre Ewell (15-5-0, +155)

Last 3 Fights: Marlon Vera (3-0-0)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#163BW] Nohelin Hernandez (10-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:25 of round 2
2019-03-23: W vs. [#74BW] Frankie Saenz (13-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:25 of round 1
2018-11-17: W vs. [#231BW] Guido Cannetti (8-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:31 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Andre Ewell (2-1-0)
2019-06-22: W vs. [#137BW] Anderson dos Santos (20-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
2018-12-29: L vs. [#20BW] Nathaniel Wood (16-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:12 of round 3
2018-09-22: W vs. [#103BW] Renan Barao (34-8-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Marlon Vera – Win%: 62.51
Elo Favorite (Standard): Marlon Vera (1729.25) [+126.96] – Win%: 64.11
Elo Favorite (Modified): Marlon Vera (1718.77) [+133.62] – Win%: 64.22
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Marlon Vera (1723.71) [+137.24] – Win%: 73.93
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marlon Vera 98, Andre Ewell 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Favorite rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– The Glicko-1 scores in this post are adjusted to better match the 1000 Elo starter rating for an easier comparison.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Ryan Spann
Highest Stored DD Rating: Deiveson Figueiredo
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Cub Swanson vs. Kron Gracie
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Tim Elliott
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Moderate [***]
Run Date: 2019-10-6