Posted on January 1, 2009 by jcs

It’s an interesting subject that probably comes up more in boxing than in MMA, but it’s definitely more intriguing in the MMA world due to the large variance in styles.  I ran the analysis with all MMA bouts that we have on record (over 68,000).

So how often does A beat C?  First, let’s acknowledge the potential issues in analyzing this statistic.

One problem is that sometimes these A/B,  B/C, and A/C bouts take place multiple times, with varying results.   Another problem lies in the timing of said bouts.  So I laid out some guidelines.

• A/B and B/C must both take place before A/C.  This is an obvious one.
• The most recent A/B and B/C results before A/C are acknowledged.  In other words, if A beat B five years before A/C, but A lost to B three months ago in their most recent bout before A/C, then this chain won’t be included in the analysis.
• If multiple A/C results are available and all guidelines are met, then all A/Cs will be counted.

In the end, A prevailed over C at a 71% success rate (2988 of 4210).

When all three bouts occur within a 3 year window, the success rate improves to 72.3%  (2144 of 2967).

Within a 2 year window, 73% (1590 of 2179).

18 months, 74.2% (1211 of 1633).

12 months, 75.2% (732 of 974).

9 months, 77.5% (488 of 630).

6 months, 80.9% (262 of 324).

3 months, 85.6% (77 of 90).

Sample Analysis: Cheick Kongo

Cheick Kongo (A) beat Andre Tete (B) on 6/10/2001
Andre Tete (B) beat Dave Dagliesh (C) on 12/1/2002
Cheick Kongo (A) beat Dave Dagliesh (C) on 12/11/2005

Cheick Kongo (A) beat Christian Wellisch (B) on 8/26/2006
Christian Wellisch (B) beat Dan Evensen (C) on 4/1/2006
Cheick Kongo (A) beat Dan Evensen (C) on 8/9/2008

Cheick Kongo (A) beat Mirko Filipovic (B) on 9/8/2007
Mirko Filipovic (B) beat Heath Herring (C) on 6/8/2003
Cheick Kongo (A) failed to beat Heath Herring (C) on 3/1/2008

Thanks to ltokuda, one of our readers, for the idea!

Posted in MMA Statistics | Comments (5)

5 Comments

• Khaos Network's Fight Blog says:

  January 14, 2009 at 10:37 pm

  [...] — one of the best quantitative MMA analysts out there has done a study of fight results that shows that MMAth — MMA math — seems to actually be a very accurate predictor of [...]

  Reply
• UFCGirls.com says:

  January 10, 2009 at 11:42 pm

  Interesting idea. Would love to see you run the math on UFC 93.

  Reply
• jcs says:

  January 5, 2009 at 2:58 pm

  There are over 68,000 bouts in the database. Window-specific counts are now in the article.

  Reply
• MMA Ratings says:

  January 5, 2009 at 2:48 pm

  And how many fights were there? How fights in each time window? Can you list the fights?

  Reply
• jcs says:

  January 4, 2009 at 2:11 pm

  All fights in MMA history were sampled…

  Reply
• Pat says:

  January 4, 2009 at 2:07 pm

  How many fights were sampled for this info? Was it just the Kongo fights?

  Reply

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