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Fight Matrix

Age: Its Impact on Fights (Part V)

Posted on April 14, 2011 by Jason

Today, we’re going to look at a fighter’s prime, and if a distinctive peak period can be ascertained by looking at a combination of age AND “career age” (time between debut date and fight date).  In most professional sports, it’s usually agreed upon that a person’s prime is between their late 20s and early-mid 30s, with women having the potential of reaching this prime a few years later.

First, I took all of the fight outcomes where a fighter had a valid birth date and grouped my counts by age and career age.

For the record, a fighter’s first year is treated as year 0, just like a person’s age.

The Top 5 most common combinations are:

 

Age Career
Age
23 1
24 1
25 1
22 1
24 2

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Eccentric Aging

The Ultimate Fighter 13 – Episode 3 results

Posted on April 13, 2011 by Oleg

In Episode 3, [#182 WW] Justin Edwards joined Team Dos Santos as an alternate, replacing Keon Caldwell.

In the third opening round fight, Team Dos Santos’ Ryan McGillivray defeated Team Lesnar’s Len Bentley by a majority decision (20-18, 20-18, 19-19), advancing to the quarter-finals.

The current win tally is 2 Team Dos Santos, 1 Team Lesnar.

Here’s who remains:

[#113] Anthony Ferguson

[#182] Justin Edwards
episode 3: alternate taking place of Keon Caldwell

[#179] Myles Jury
episode 1: forced to withdraw due to an injury

[#200] Ryan McGillivray
episode 3: moved on to quarter-finals with a majority decision win (20-18, 20-18, 19-19) over Len Bentley

[#247 LW] Ramsey Nijem

[#289] Chuck O’Neil
episode 1: alternate taking place of Miles Jury

[#321] Charlie Rader

[#364] Shamar Bailey
episode 1: moved on to quarter-finals with a 20-18 unanimous decision win over Nordin Asrih

[#387] Clay Harvison

[#441] Chris Cope
episode 2: moved on to quarter-finals with a 29-28 overtime unanimous decision win over Javier Torres

[#475] Len Bentley
episode 3:lost a majority decision win (20-18, 20-18, 19-19) to Ryan McGillivray

[NR] Nordin Asrih
episode 1: lost a unanimous decision (20-18) to Shamar Bailey

[NR] Michael Bowman

[NR] Keon Caldwell
episode 2: withdrew from competition

[NR] Zachary Davis

[NR] Javier Torres
episode 2: lost an overtime unanimous decision (29-28) to Chris Cope

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This Past Weekend: Friday, April 8th, 2011

Posted on April 13, 2011 by Jonathan

Maximum Fighting Championships 29 – Conquer
April 8, 2011
The Colosseum at Caesars Windsor,
Windsor, Ontario, Canada

MFC Welterweight Championship

Welterweight (170 lbs)

Douglas Lima (18 – 4 – 0) blasted UFC veteran Terry Martin (21 – 9 – 0) and won by TKO due to punches at just 1:14 into round 1.  Douglas Lima moves up 15 spots from [#51] to [#36].  Lima is on a 6 fight win streak- winning 4 by stoppage, 3 by submission.  Martin drops 37 spots from [#69] to [#106].  Martin is 3-2 in his last 5.

MFC Light Heavyweight Championship

Light Heavyweight (205 lbs)

Ryan Jimmo (15 – 1 – 0) won a unanimous decision over Strikeforce vet Zak Cummings (13 – 3 – 0).  Jimmo, who is undefeated in 15 bouts, stays ranked at [#22].  Cummings, who has won 3 of his last 5 all via stoppage, drops 2 spots from [#81] to [#83].  Cummings was an injury replacement for [#36] Emmanuel Newton.

Lightweight (155 lbs)

UFC veteran Marcus Davis (18 – 9 – 0) defeated Curtis Demarce (10 – 9 – 0) by split decision.  Davis, who stayed ranked at [#59], won his first fight after being cut from the UFC following a less than stellar 1-4 run.  Davis most recent loss was a KO due to a punch at the hands of to [#23] Jeremy Stephens.  Demarce jumps 33 spots up the rankings from [#266 ] to [#230].  Demarce is on a 2 fight losing streak, both by split decision.  Prior to the 2 losses, Demarce was on a 7 fight win streak.

Lightweight (155 lbs)

UFC veteran Hermes Franca (21 – 11 – 0) defeated Robert Washington (9 – 3 – 0) by KO due to a punch at 0:26 into the 2nd round.  Franca, who was ranked at [#202WW], moves into the lightweight “Top 500” at [#166].  Franca is on a 2 fight win streak, stopping both of his opponents.  Washington, who remains unranked, has lost 3 of his last 5, 2 by KO.

Welterweight (170 lbs)

UFC veteran Pete Spratt (22 – 19 – 0) defeated Demi Deeds (15 – 9 – 0) via submission due to an armbar at 4:19 of round 2.  Spratt, who has lost 3 of his last 5 all to chokes, bounds 51 spots forward from [#213] to [#162], gaining his 9th career victory via submission.  Deeds, who was ranked at [#351LW] moves into the welterweight “Top 500”at [#459].  Deeds is on a 3 fight slide, losing all 3 by submission.

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Age: Its Impact on Fights (Part IV)

Posted on April 13, 2011 by Jason

With almost 3,000 birthdates now (nearly twice as many as before), we’re now going to see if fighters get more complacent with age.  This analysis looks at almost 28,000 fights, which I consider to be an acceptable sample set.

Furthermore, I am only analyzing wins with known outcome types and am considered a finish as a TKO, KO, DQ or SUB.

I thought the increased sample set would help matters, but the peak after 40 is larger than ever and even starts in the late 30s this time.  The logarithmic trendline still follows through with a consistent descent, but is nearly even at the end of the age range.

Are the older fighters likely fighting other older fighters and the eventual loser does not have the stamina to finish the fights?  Or are the older fighters more likely to take soft touches?

The sample set is now even more pronounced in that it is reflecting mainly the 21-31 year old fighters, so it’s as if the trendline knows (without me telling it) that the weight supports data on the left side moreso than the right.

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Age: Its Impact on Fights (Part III)

Posted on April 13, 2011 by Jason

Today, we look at the rate of stoppage losses and how it affects aging fighters.  The critics against older fighters competing should have a good time with this one.

Stoppage Loss% By Age

First, a few notes.

  • I included TKOs, KOs, and DQs in the stoppages.
  • The “dotted line” represents the sample average.
  • The “red line” represents the trendline — helping to smooth out the peaks and valleys.

The limits of the sample set shine through in this analysis, so I decided to toss the trend-line in.  For the younger fighters, the stoppages account for less than 25% of the losses, but notice how that nearly doubles (on a trend-line basis) once the fighters get into their 40s.

 

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Age: It’s impact on fights (Part II)

Posted on April 12, 2011 by Jason

A little disclaimer before viewing the following results.

Obviously, the fighters we actually have birthdates are, for the most part, more “well known” than the fighters who we don’t have birthdates for.  So, in the following, you can’t compare to a 50% win percentage (you can’t anyway, because draws are included), you’ll have to compare to the sample average.  Having said that…

Win % by Age

Win% By Age

In the above graph, the dotted line represents the sample average.  I’m very surprised at the almost impeccable trend downward, which starts all the way at the beginning when the fighters are in their teens.  The teenage group boasts an astounding 79.8% win percentage.

The spike after age 39 is undoubtedly a result of the few ageless wonders that we’ve seen in the recent years of MMA, carefully picking and choosing their spots rather than retiring.


This Past Weekend: Bellator 40

Posted on April 12, 2011 by Jonathan

Bellator Fighting Championships 40
April 9, 2011

First Council Casino,
Newkirk, Oklahoma, United States

Non Title Bout

Welterweight (170 lbs)
Ben Askren (8 – 0 – 0) won a unanimous decision over Nick Thompson (38 – 14 – 1).  Askren remains ranked at [#21] with this victory.  Askren showed true positional dominance on the ground, thoroughly flustering Thompson in all 3 rounds.  Nick Thompson drops 1 spot from [#128] to [#129].  Thompson, who is on a 4 fight losing streak and has not won since February of 2009, announced his intention to retire following the bout.

Bellator Welterweight Tournament Semifinal

Welterweight (170 lbs)
Jay Hieron (21 – 4 – 0) defeated Brent Weedman (18 – 6 – 1) via unanimous decision.  Weedman was the aggressor for much of the bout, but the judges felt Hieron’s boxing earned him the victory.  Hieron breaks into the top ten, jumping 5 spots from [#15] to [#10].  He will face [#47] Rick Hawn in the finals of the season 4 welterweight tournament.  Now Hieron is 11 spots higher than Bellator welterweight champ Ben Askren.  Brent Weedman drops 2 spots from [#28] to [#30].  Prior to this loss, Weedman was on a 3 year, 10 fight win streak.

Bellator Lightweight Tournament Semifinal

Lightweight (155 lbs)
Michael Chandler (7 – 0 – 0) won a unanimous decision over Lloyd Woodard (11 – 1 – 0)  Chandler used superior wrestling to control the taller Woodard throughout the fight.  Chandler, who bounds 109 spots forward from [#161] to [#52], advances to the finals to face [#51] Patricky Freire.  Chandler had stopped all his opponents prior to this bout.  Lloyd Woodard falls 20 spots from [#46] to [#66].  Woodard suffered defeat for the first time on Saturday night, but he has much to offer and should be back in the Bellator cage soon.

Keep Reading

Age: It’s impact on fights (Part I)

Posted on April 12, 2011 by Jason

This was spurred on by the Bloody Elbow/Fight Metric Research Contest.  I wonder if using FM data makes it ineligible?

Whatever the case is, here I am with another “stat geek” article for our readers’ consumption.   Some notes before I get into the bulk of it:

  • 1,361 fighters have valid birthdates in the database (this is a relatively new data attribute for us).
  • 4,317 pro fights have two fighters with a valid birthdate.
  • 4,062 pro fights are used in this analysis (excluded draws and no contests) when both fighters need a valid birthdate.
  • 18,898 pro fights are used in this analysis (excluded draws and no contests) when only one fighter needs a valid birthdate.

As you can see, not the largest sample set, but a decent amount nonetheless.

For starters, the average MMA fighter (at the time of the fight) was 10,198 days old.  If you divide this by 365.2425 (don’t hate on leap years), you get a yearly result of 27.92… so roughly 27 years and 11 months.

The winner, on average, was 126 days younger.  Although slim, this is pretty substantial considering the data set.

The oldest fighter in the analysis at the time of the fight?  Dan Severn.  He’s the oldest winner AND oldest loser.

The youngest fighter?  Nam Jin Jo.  Now, I’m not sure if this is legit, but he was only 5,346 days old (a little over 14 years and 7 months) when he beat Jin Woo Kim in a 2005 Spirit MC show.

The oldest combined age in a fight, by far, took place when Randy Couture beat Mark Coleman — nearly 92 years.

More to come…

This Past Weekend: Strikeforce – Diaz vs. Daley

Posted on April 11, 2011 by Jonathan

Strikeforce – Diaz vs. Daley

April 9, 2011
Valley View Casino Center

San Diego, California, United States

Strikeforce Welterweight Championship

Welterweight (170 lbs)

Nick Diaz (25 – 7 – 0) extended his winning streak to 10 in his dazzling finish over Paul Daley (27 – 10 – 2) by TKO due to punches at 4:57 of the 1st round.  Daley, who was just 3 seconds shy of being saved by the bell, protested the stoppage by “Big” John McCarthy.  However, Daley looked unsteady when he was helped up onto his stool, leading one to believe that the stoppage may have been justified.  Diaz and Daley rocked each other numerous times throughout the truncated tussle, but the legendary chin of Diaz allowed him to recover and prevail.  Daley has never been stopped by strikes in his career prior to this loss.  With this win, Diaz moved up 2 spots, eking past [#5] B.J. Penn and [#4] Jon Fitch to rest at [#3].  Diaz has more or less beaten everyone in the Strikeforce welterweight division except for unbeaten [#35] Tyron Woodley.  Paul Daley was on a 4 fight win streak prior to this loss, and is 8-2 in his last 10.  After suffering his first TKO loss due to strikes, he will want to come back with an emphatic victory to prove he is still a top tier welterweight.  A bout with fellow loser to Nick Diaz, [#32] Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos would most likely produce fireworks on the feet, propelling the victor back into title contention.  Daley drops 8 spots from [#8] to {#14].

Strikeforce Lightweight Championship

Lightweight (155 lbs)

Gilbert Melendez (19 – 2 – 0) brutalized Tatsuya Kawajiri  (27 – 7 – 0) and won via TKO due to elbows at 3:14 of the 1st round.  Melendez truly made a statement by dominating fellow top ten competitor Kawajiri in such shocking fashion.  Ironically it was his elbows, which are newly allowed in Strikeforce, that forced the stoppage.   Melendez, like his teammate Nick Diaz, does not have a paucity of talent available for him to face.  A rematch with [#4] Shinya Aoki or a bout against [#28] Justin Wilcox could prove interesting. The cross promotional dream match between Melendez and Bellator lightweight champ [#5] Eddie Alvarez would always be appealing.  Melendez moves 2 spots up the ranks from [#4] to [#2], usurping [#3] Gray Maynard’s previous spot.  Melendez is on a 5 fight win streak.  Tatsuya Kawajiri has suffered two hard 1st round defeats in the last year, and these have both shown sizeable chinks in his armor.  Kawajiri did not impress in his Stateside debut, and should look for bouts with [#13] Jorge Masvidal or [#50] Pat Healy.  Kawajiri drops 2 spots from [#9] to [#11].

Keep Reading

Current Top 5 Prospects by Division

Posted on April 11, 2011 by Jason

BloodyElbow recently took a close look at prospects around the sport.  They (as far as I know) did not use set criteria like we do, but it is interesting to see that some fights are on both lists.  Furthermore, it will be interesting to re-visit this and see how many fighters are eventually picked up by known organizations.

The following prospects fulfilled the following criteria:

  • Have not fought in any of the “Big 15” organizations.  Please see the FAQ for more info.
  • Have no more than one defeat.
  • Have five wins or more.
  • Have fought in the last 450 days.

Sorted by current rating

Heavyweight+

  1. Shamil Abdurahimov (12-1-0) [BE #2 HW]
  2. Guram Gughenishvili (11-0-0) [BE #1 HW]
  3. Chris Barnett (6-1-0)
  4. Tony Johnson Jr. (5-1-0) [BE #3 HW]
  5. Thiago Santos (8-1-0)

Keep Reading

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