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Fight Matrix

Gambling Analysis: UFC on Fuel TV 2

Posted on April 11, 2012 by Jason

With the first UFC event in six weeks, I’m getting back into the swing of things with an opportunity to score some coin.  Having licked my wounds as a result of the mental trauma resulting from my undefeated streak coming to a halt, I’m still riding high in the grand scheme of things and am here to present another advantageous, perhaps obvious bet.

Gustaffson vs. Silva is a match where Gustaffson is a favorite at about -225.  I think this is an incredible play.  Since his loss to Davis, Gustaffson has actually done enough results-wise to surpass Davis.  Add into the fact, that Silva has not had an official win in almost three years and this results in a great play for a young/upcoming fighter.  I do not favor a particular outcome for this fight, but I do favor the win for Gustaffson.

Of course with every bet, it’s a good idea to determine the best sports books available to you on the Internet.  The variety of sports and types of bets can wildly differ between books.  Always look for reputation ratings and the best odds before opening an account and making your bets.

For a reference, here are the details for our past picks:

  • UFC 128 – Jon Jones vs Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua: Jones @ -210
    • Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 2/3) | Actual: TKO (Rd 3)
  • UFC 129 – Georges St. Pierre vs Jake Shields: St. Pierre @ -450
    • Predicted Outcome: Wide Unanimous Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
  • UFC 129 – Lyoto Machida vs Randy Couture: Machida @ -350
    • No Outcome Predicted
  • UFC 130 – Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson: Mir @ -125
    • Predicted Outcome: Split Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
  • StrikeForce – Chad Griggs vs Valentijn Overeem: Griggs @ -110
    • Predicted Outcome: TKO | Actual: TKO
  • StrikeForce – Justin Wilcox vs Gesias Calvancante: Wilcox @ +130
    • No Contest
  • UFC on FX – Jim Miller vs Melvin Guillard: Miller @ -213
    • Predicted Outcome: Submission (Rd 2) | Actual: Submission (Rd 1)
  • UFC on Fuel TV – Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman: Herman @ -140
    • Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 1) | Actual: TKO (Rd 2)
  • UFC on Fuel TV 2 – Alexander Gustaffson vs Thiago Silva: Gustaffson @ -225
    • No Outcome Predicted

If you had bet $100 on each one of the winners (prior to UFC Fuel TV 2) at the odds listed above, you would have made a profit of: $216.27.  If you heeded our advice on going “big” for certain match-ups (Machida/Couture), you’d likely have more profit.  We’re also doing pretty good on the specific outcome plays, but availability of these are not as prominent as they are in boxing betting.

Keep in mind that the above is for “entertainment purposes only”.

FightMatrix Program: UFC on Fuel TV 2 (04-14-2012)

Posted on April 11, 2012 by Jason

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#11] Alexander Gustafsson (13-1-0) vs. [*] Thiago Silva (14-2-0)
Thiago Silva is the All-Time #24 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Gustafsson (3-0-0)
2011-12-30: W vs. [#30LHW] Vladimir Matyushenko (26-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:13 of round 1
2011-08-06: W vs. [#20LHW] Matt Hamill (10-4-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:41 of round 2
2011-02-27: W vs. [#35LHW] James Te Huna (14-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:27 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Thiago Silva (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2011-01-01: NC vs. [#29LHW] Brandon Vera (12-5-0) via NC (Overturned by NSAC) in 5:00 of round 3
2010-01-02: L vs. [#2LHW] Rashad Evans (22-1-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2009-08-29: W vs. [#28MW] Keith Jardine (17-11-2) via TKO (Punches) in 1:35 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Gustafsson 106, Thiago Silva 469
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#14] Brian Stann (11-4-0) vs. [#52] Alessio Sakara (15-8-0)

Last 3 Fights: Brian Stann (2-1-0)
2011-10-08: L vs. [#2MW] Chael Sonnen (27-11-1) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:51 of round 2
2011-05-28: W vs. [#23MW] Jorge Santiago (24-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:29 of round 2
2011-01-01: W vs. [#21MW] Chris Leben (22-8-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 3:37 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Alessio Sakara (2-1-0)
2011-03-03: L vs. [#7MW] Chris Weidman (8-0-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2010-03-21: W vs. [#103HW+] James Irvin (17-9-0) via TKO (Punch) in 3:01 of round 1
2009-08-08: W vs. [#18LHW] Thales Leites (20-4-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brian Stann 189, Alessio Sakara 408
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Brian Stann leads 1-0
.

Welterweight (170)
[#14] Siyar Bahadurzada (20-4-1) vs. [#31] Paulo Thiago (14-3-0)
Paulo Thiago is the All-Time #25 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Siyar Bahadurzada (3-0-0)
2011-05-28: W vs. [#89WW] Tommy Depret (9-4-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 4:16 of round 2
2011-03-19: W vs. [#39LW] John Alessio (34-14-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:55 of round 1
2010-10-16: W vs. [*] Derrick Noble (26-15-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Paulo Thiago (1-2-0)
2011-08-27: W vs. [#156WW] David Mitchell (11-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2010-10-23: L vs. [#12WW] Diego Sanchez (23-5-0) via UD (30-26, 29-28, 29-28)
2010-06-12: L vs. [#8WW] Martin Kampmann (19-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Siyar Bahadurzada 322, Paulo Thiago 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
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Posted on April 10, 2012 by Jason

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MMA Rankings Updated: 04/07/2012

Posted on April 7, 2012 by Jason

The Ultimate Fighter 15: Episode 5 Review

Posted on April 7, 2012 by Oleg

In Episode 5, Team Faber ties the score, with Mike Chiesa taking a unanimous decision over Jeremy Larsen.

Current win tally is Team Cruz 2, Team Faber 2

All rankings are approximate as-of Episode 1.

[#148 WW] Daron Cruickshank
Episode 1: defeated [#175 LW] Drew Dober by unanimous decision
Episode 2: lost to [NR] James Vick by first-round knockout

[#134 LW] John Cofer
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Mark Glover by unanimous decision

[#217 LW] Mike Rio
Episode 1: defeated [#177 LW] Ali Maclean by submission

[#231 LW] Cristiano Marcello
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Mark Glover by unanimous decision
Episode 3: lost to [NR] Justin Lawrence by knockout

[#245 LW] Sam Sicilia
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Erin Beach by knockout

[#248LW] Chris Saunders
Episode 1: defeated [#354 LW] Chase Hackett by unanimous decision

[NR] Myles Jury
Episode 1: defeated [#194 LW] Akbarh Arreola by unanimous decision
Episode 4: Lost to [NR] Al Iaquinta by decision in the overtime round

[#268 LW] Vinc Pichel
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Cody Pfister by submission

[#307 MW] Mike Chiesa
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Johnavan Vistante by submission
Episode 5: defeated [#411 LW] Jeremy Larsen by unanimous decision

[#137 FW] Andy Ogle
Episode 1: defeated [#378 LW] Brendan Weafer by unanmious decision

[#279 LW] Chris Tickle
Episode 1: defeated [#188 LW] Austin Lyons by knockout

[#287 LW] Joey Proctor
Episode 1: defeated [#168 LW] Jordan Rinaldi by sumbission

[#411 LW] Jeremy Larsen
Episode 1: defeated [#167 LW] Jeff Smith by unanimous decision
Episode 5: lost to by [#307 MW] Mike Chiesa by unanimous decision

[NR] James Vick
Episode 1: defeated [#131 WW] Dakota Cochrane by split decision
Episode 2: defeated [#148 WW] Daron Cruickshank by first round knockout

[NR] Al Iaquinta
Episode 1: defeated [#193 LW] Jon Tuck by unanimous decision
Episode 4: defeated [NR] Mile Jury by decision in the overtime round

[NR] Justin Lawrence
Episode 1: defeated [#164 WW] James Krause by knockout
Episode 3: defeated [#231 LW] Cristiano Marcello by knockout

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All-Time MMA Rankings Updated: 4/2/2012

Posted on April 2, 2012 by Jason

Notable Info

  • Dan Henderson increases his status and takes the #7 Absolute position, bumping Randy Couture down to #8.
  • Junior dos Santos mirrors “Hendo”, but in the Heavyweight-specific division, as he moves up one position to #7.
  • Jon Jones continues his methodical ascent up the Light Heavyweight list — now at #11.  It is only a matter of time before he cracks the Top 10, he just needs more longevity at the top of the division.
  • With Sanchez’s latest loss, he loses some steam and drops two positions to #8 at Welterweight.  Also as a result of this matchup, Ellenberger jumps onto the list, making his debut at #23.
  • Gilbert Melendez, quietly becoming one of the sport’s all-time greats, displaces Vitor Ribeiro at #5 within the Lightweight division.
  • UFC Flyweights are preparing to make their mark on the Flyweight list.  Ian McCall moves up to #16, with Demetrious Johnson (who has had previous fights at Flyweight) is knocking on the door at #40.  Benavidez with only one fight in the division, needs more time and results to get close to the Top 25.
  • Tara LaRosa eeked past Yuka Tsuji into the #2 position on the Women’s list.  The top 3 positions on this list are super tight.

MMA Rankings Updated: 4/1/2012

Posted on April 1, 2012 by Jason

Notable Info

  • A full update of the all-time rankings will be posted within the next several days.

The Ultimate Fighter 15: Episode 4 Review

Posted on March 31, 2012 by Oleg

In Episode 4, Team Faber gets one on the board with another upset, as Al Iaquinta defeated Myles Jury by a unanimous decision in the third round.

Current win tally is Team Cruz 2, Team Faber 1

All rankings are approximate as-of Episode 1.

[#148 WW] Daron Cruickshank
Episode 1: defeated [#175 LW] Drew Dober by unanimous decision
Episode 2: lost to [NR] James Vick by first-round knockout

[#134 LW] John Cofer
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Mark Glover by unanimous decision

[#217 LW] Mike Rio
Episode 1: defeated [#177 LW] Ali Maclean by submission

[#231 LW] Cristiano Marcello
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Mark Glover by unanimous decision
Episode 3: lost to [NR] Justin Lawrence by knockout

[#245 LW] Sam Sicilia
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Erin Beach by knockout

[#248LW] Chris Saunders
Episode 1: defeated [#354 LW] Chase Hackett by unanimous decision

[NR] Myles Jury
Episode 1: defeated [#194 LW] Akbarh Arreola by unanimous decision
Episode 4: Lost to [NR] Al Iaquinta by decision in the overtime round

[#268 LW] Vinc Pichel
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Cody Pfister by submission

[#307 MW] Mike Chiesa
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Johnavan Vistante by submission

[#137 FW] Andy Ogle
Episode 1: defeated [#378 LW] Brendan Weafer by unanmious decision

[#279 LW] Chris Tickle
Episode 1: defeated [#188 LW] Austin Lyons by knockout

[#287 LW] Joey Proctor
Episode 1: defeated [#168 LW] Jordan Rinaldi by sumbission

[#411 LW] Jeremy Larsen
Episode 1: defeated [#167 LW] Jeff Smith by unanimous decision

[NR] James Vick
Episode 1: defeated [#131 WW] Dakota Cochrane by split decision
Episode 2: defeated [#148 WW] Daron Cruickshank by first round knockout

[NR] Al Iaquinta
Episode 1: defeated [#193 LW] Jon Tuck by unanimous decision
Episode 4: defeated [NR] Mile Jury by decision in the overtime round

[NR] Justin Lawrence
Episode 1: defeated [#164 WW] James Krause by knockout
Episode 3: defeated [#231 LW] Cristiano Marcello by knockout

MMA Rankings Updated – 03/26/2012

Posted on March 26, 2012 by Jason

Notable Info

  • Some shows were inadvertently missed in the past few weeks, so this intermediate release acts as a catchup.  It also includes an important DEEP show that took place on Sunday, which caused some notable movement in the Flyweight rankings.

The Ultimate Fighter 15: Episode 3 Results

Posted on March 25, 2012 by Oleg

In Episode 3, the season of upsets continued and Team Cruz pulled further ahead as Justin Lawrence stopped Cristiano Marcello with a second-round knockout.

Team Cruz is now ahead 2-0.

All rankings are approximate as-of Episode 1.

[#148 WW] Daron Cruickshank
Episode 1: defeated [#175 LW] Drew Dober by unanimous decision
Episode 2: lost to [NR] James Vick by first-round knockout

[#134 LW] John Cofer
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Mark Glover by unanimous decision

[#217 LW] Mike Rio
Episode 1: defeated [#177 LW] Ali Maclean by submission

[#231 LW] Cristiano Marcello
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Mark Glover by unanimous decision
Episode 2: lost to [NR] Justin Lawrence by knockout

[#245 LW] Sam Sicilia
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Erin Beach by knockout

[#248LW] Chris Saunders
Episode 1: defeated [#354 LW] Chase Hackett by unanimous decision

[NR] Myles Jury
Episode 1: defeated [#194 LW] Akbarh Arreola by unanimous decision

[#268 LW] Vinc Pichel
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Cody Pfister by submission

[#307 MW] Mike Chiesa
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Johnavan Vistante by submission

[#137 FW] Andy Ogle
Episode 1: defeated [#378 LW] Brendan Weafer by unanmious decision

[#279 LW] Chris Tickle
Episode 1: defeated [#188 LW] Austin Lyons by knockout

[#287 LW] Joey Proctor
Episode 1: defeated [#168 LW] Jordan Rinaldi by sumbission

[#411 LW] Jeremy Larsen
Episode 1: defeated [#167 LW] Jeff Smith by unanimous decision

[NR] James Vick
Episode 1: defeated [#131 WW] Dakota Cochrane by split decision
Episode 2: defeated [#148 WW] Daron Cruickshank by first round knockout

[NR] Al Iaquinta
Episode 1: defeated [#193 LW] Jon Tuck by unanimous decision

[NR] Justin Lawrence
Episode 1: defeated [#164 WW] James Krause by knockout
Episode 3: defeated [#231 LW] Cristiano Marcello by knockout

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