Since we now post Glicko-based ratings, a 100% mathematically pure, albeit very limited system, I thought I’d use those ratings for more than just ranking.  You may have noticed in a recent award post, I mentioned the biggest upset of the year based on Glicko rating point difference, which was Asakura KO(1) Horiguchi.

That upset still had some basic requirements, you can check the MMA Awards page for more details.  Simply put, the loser has to be active and relevant on the world scale.

I thought it’d be interesting to see what the absolute biggest upset was in 2019, regardless of relevance.

I was shocked to see a 852.34 point difference where a fighter named Anthony Formoso (7-0) lost by submission, to a fighter named Chris “The Killer Skater” Sandt (1-16).  Yes, an undefeated fighter lost to a 1-16 opponent.  An 852.34 point difference roughly equates to a 0.1% chance of an upset.

Using this method, this is actually the third biggest upset of all-time, with the biggest being King Mo beating Travis Wiuff (+913.22) in his debut back in 2008, and the runner-up being Mark Hunt’s 2005 split decision victory over Cro Cop (+911.67).  Though, in these contests, King Mo and Mark Hunt both had a past high-level combat sports related pedigree.  The same applies in the fourth biggest upset — Joe Schilling KO(2) Melvin Manhoef.

Men: Juancamilo Ronderos

This one wasn’t close.  4-0 on the year, with a ranking easily within the Top 50 at Flyweight.

Women: Maria Laura Alves

No real breakaway candidate for this award, but Alves edges it, ending at #50 in the 115 division.

Honorable Mentions: Ewelina Wozniak, Nong Stamp

As a refresher, our “comeback” award is about coming back from inactivity or major injury (that we know about) and in doing so, really impressing.  You can see more details on the awards page about specific qualifiers.

Comeback Fighter of the Year: Nate Diaz

Although he went an even .500 on the year, he ended on the fringes of the Top 10 at Welterweight.

Most Improved Fighter of the Year: Jairzinho Rozenstruik

5-0 on the year and stoppages over Arlovski and Overeem elevate Rozenstruik to the doorstep of a title opportunity, but he’ll need to get past Ngannou before that becomes a reality.

Most Noteworthy Match of the Year:

Khabib Nurmagomedov SUB(3) Dustin Poirier

A fairly easy choice.  The undefeated Khabib, takes on Dustin Poirier, recent conquerer of Alvarez and Holloway.

Note: We have three ways that we derive biggest “upsets” based on points difference between winner and loser.

“Most Noteworthy” (X minus Y / normalized by division)
“Most Noteworthy – Glicko” (GlickoX minus GlickoY)
“Most Lopsided” (X divided by Y)

Most Noteworthy: Walt Harris KO(1) Alexey Oleynik

While not a betting upset, Oleynik was fringe Top 10 and Harris was still an unproven fighter prior to this.

Most Noteworthy (Glicko): Kai Asakura TKO(1) Kyoji Horiguchi

Horiguchi was that rare fighter who’d occasionally show up at the bottom of the P4P lists, yet not actively competing in the UFC.  Asakura knocked him out and down a few notches in the rankings.

Most Lopsided: Timofey Nastyukhin TKO(1) Eddie Alvarez

Alvarez was annihilated by a totally unknown fighter in his first One Championship fight.  Maybe he took the competition a bit too lightly, or maybe he left a piece of himself in the UFC.