Notable Info
- Ratings updated with recent shows from M-1, Ring of Fire, and others.
- Inserted some previously missing older shows.
UFC 93 & 94: Three A vs C matches
Looking ahead to next weekend’s UFC 93 card, I discovered two instances of “A vs C” matches that fit the same guidelines as those I analyzed in last week’s study.
Denis Kang (A) beat Marvin Eastman (B) on 10/25/2008
Marvin Eastman (B) beat Alan Belcher (C) on 9/24/2005
Denis Kang (A) ??? Alan Belcher (C) on 1/17/2009
Marcus Davis (A) beat Shonie Carter (B) on 12/13/2006
Shonie Carter (B) beat Chris Lytle (C) on 9/24/2000
Marcus Davis (A) ??? Chris Lytle (C) on 1/17/2009
Although there was a large timegap between A/B and B/C (especially in the Davis/Lytle group), A has a higher rating in each of the UFC 93 matches. You have to feel good about Kang and Davis winning their respective matches.
UFC 94 has one of these matches, and it is the main event.
Georges St. Pierre (A) beat Matt Hughes (B) on 12/29/2007
Matt Hughes (B) beat BJ Penn (C) on 9/23/2006
Georges St. Pierre (A) ??? BJ Penn (C) on 1/31/2009
As is the case with the previously mentioned matches, St. Pierre carries a higher rating than Penn. Even though Hughes beat GSP, and Penn beat Hughes, their most recent rematches are what matter the most.
Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)
| Saturday, March 14th 2026: Pancrase - 361 | |||
 [#4 SW] Yuta Miyazawa | [#9 SW] Kanji Funada | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 11/09/2025 [Pancrase] Last Opponent: [#32 SW] Tateo Iino Last 5: W W L W W | Last Fight Date: 4/27/2025 [Pancrase] Last Opponent: [#51 SW] Takafumi Ato Last 5: W W W W W | ||
| Friday, March 6th 2026: RIZIN 52 | |||
| [#5 W105] Saori Oshima | [#11 W105] Keito Oyama | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 11/02/2025 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#1 W105] Seika Izawa Last 5: W L L W L | Last Fight Date: 11/02/2025 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [NR] Bo Mi Lee Last 5: L W W W W | ||
| Sunday, March 8th 2026: Deep Osaka Impact 2026 1st Round | |||
| [#7 W105] Moeri Suda | [#10 W105] Namiko Kawabata | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 9/15/2025 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#5 W105] Saori Oshima Last 5: W W W W L | Last Fight Date: 5/25/2025 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#36 W105] Honoka Shigeta Last 5: L L L W W | ||
Featured Fighters
| [NR] |  Daniel Cormier | [NR] | Henry Cejudo | |
| [#1 LW] |  Ilia Topuria | [#1 WW] |  Islam Makhachev | |
| [NR] |  Conor McGregor | [NR] | B.J. Penn | |
| [#39 LHW] |  Aleksandar Ilic | [#20 BW] |  Farid Basharat | |
| [#1 LHW] |  Alex Pereira | [#26 W135] |  Klaudia Sygula |
MMA Rankings Updated: 1/4/09
Notable Info
- Ratings updated with recent shows from Sengoku and others.
Other interesting notes…
- Higher ranked fighters Satoru Kitaoka, and Jorge Santiago strengthen their positions with big wins over Takanori Gomi, and Kazuo Misaki respectively.
- Alexis Vila, former Cuban wrestling champion, is now properly placed in the Flyweight division. His point total allows him to debut at #11 in the rankings.
If A beats B and B beats C, will A beat C?
It’s an interesting subject that probably comes up more in boxing than in MMA, but it’s definitely more intriguing in the MMA world due to the large variance in styles. I ran the analysis with all mixed martial arts bouts that we have on record (over 68,000).
So how often does A beat C? First, let’s acknowledge the potential issues in analyzing this statistic.
One problem is that sometimes these A/B, B/C, and A/C bouts take place multiple times, with varying results. Another problem lies in the timing of said bouts. So I laid out some guidelines.
- A/B and B/C must both take place before A/C. This is an obvious one.
- The most recent A/B and B/C results before A/C are acknowledged. In other words, if A beat B five years before A/C, but A lost to B three months ago in their most recent bout before A/C, then this chain won’t be included in the analysis.
- If multiple A/C results are available and all guidelines are met, then all A/Cs will be counted.
In the end, A prevailed over C at a 71% success rate (2988 of 4210).
When all three bouts occur within a 3 year window, the success rate improves to 72.3% (2144 of 2967).
Within a 2 year window, 73% (1590 of 2179).
18 months, 74.2% (1211 of 1633).
12 months, 75.2% (732 of 974).
9 months, 77.5% (488 of 630).
6 months, 80.9% (262 of 324).
3 months, 85.6% (77 of 90).
Sample Analysis: Cheick Kongo
Cheick Kongo (A) beat Andre Tete (B) on 6/10/2001
Andre Tete (B) beat Dave Dagliesh (C) on 12/1/2002
Cheick Kongo (A) beat Dave Dagliesh (C) on 12/11/2005
Cheick Kongo (A) beat Christian Wellisch (B) on 8/26/2006
Christian Wellisch (B) beat Dan Evensen (C) on 4/1/2006
Cheick Kongo (A) beat Dan Evensen (C) on 8/9/2008
Cheick Kongo (A) beat Mirko Filipovic (B) on 9/8/2007
Mirko Filipovic (B) beat Heath Herring (C) on 6/8/2003
Cheick Kongo (A) failed to beat Heath Herring (C) on 3/1/2008
Thanks to ltokuda, one of our readers, for the idea!
MMA Rankings Updated: 12/31/08
Notable Info
- Ratings updated with recent shows from UFC and K-1, as well as some minor shows.
Other interesting notes…
- Frank Mir’s win shakes up the Heavyweight division as he shoots up to #2, while Nogueira drops to #4.
- The Griffin/Evans and Jackson/Silva results create a strange scenario at the top of the Light Heavyweight division. Evans takes the top spot, while Jackson’s win was enough to keep him at #2. Griffin drops to #3. Is Jackson/Evans next?
- A similar situation happened at Lightweight, with Aoki submitting Alvarez, which was unexpected considering Hansen-Alvarez and Hansen-Aoki.
UFC 92 Review
Traditionally the UFC has always had a stellar lineup for their end-of-year show, and this year was no different. With the lightheavyweight title on the line in the main event, the interim heavyweight title defended in the co-main, and the third installation of the Wanderlei Silva-Quinton Jackson series, ‘The Ultimate 2008’ had plenty of hype going into the show.
Cheik Kongo vs. Mostapha Al-Turk (HW)
In the first televised bout, the UFC newcomer Al-Turk started out attempting to exchange strikes with Kongo, until Cheik caught a kick and threw Al-Turk to the canvas. After getting up, Al-Turk went for the takedown but was thwarted, then landed a knee to Kongo’s groin from a clinch. After a break for Cheik to recover, the fighters went back to clinch and Kongo retaliated with a knee to the groin of Al-Turk. When the fight restarted again, Kongo came out aggressive and dropped Al-Turk then following him down, pounding away with elbows and punches that split Al-Turk’s forehead wide open and caused the referee to stop the bout, giving Kongo the TKO victory.
Fight grade: 4/5 3/5 (1 point deduction for low blows)
Aftermath: Nut shots aside, a good performance for Kongo that should place him in the top tier of contenders for the winner of the heavyweight championship mini-tournament. He is perhaps one win away from a title shot. Al-Turk does not impress in his debut; look for him on the televisual undercard of a UK UFC event some time in 2009.
MMA Fighters rematch a lot!
Our FightMatrix database shows the following rematch-related statistics:
- 2,307 bouts have taken place where the fighters have fought at least once previous.
- 196 bouts where fighters have fought at least twice previous…. and 24 bouts, at least three times previous.
- Two pairs of fighters have fought each other six times! (Travis Fulton & Rory Prazak, Brian Robinson & Nate Kopel)
In instances where fighters meet in their second encounter, the same winner has prevailed only 64.5% of the time. If the first fight ended in a knockout or submission, this number increases to 67.7%. These statistics prove that MMA is a very volatile sport compared to boxing, where the percentage of repeat winners after a knockout in the first bout since 1985 is almost 90% (I researched this myself).
Not many rematches have taken place after the first bout ended in disqualification. In fact, its very rare, as we only have record of 19 said rematches. The previous winner won 9 out of these 19.
How about when a fighter wins the first two matches by KO or TKO, and then rematches the loser for a third time? In other words, does Quinton stand a chance on Saturday? The dataset is extremely small, but the statistics show that the KO/TKO winner of the first two bouts, will win the third bout 89% of the time.
UFC 92: How they stack up
UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
[#1] Forrest Griffin vs. [#4] Rashad Evans
UFC Interim Heavyweight Championship
[#2] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. [#26] Frank Mir
Light Heavyweight
[#2] Quinton Jackson vs. [#5] Wanderlei Silva
Middleweight
[#39] Mike Massenzio vs. [#175] C.B. Dollaway
Heavyweight
[#12] Cheick Kongo vs. [#86] Mustafa al Turk
Middleweight
[#15] Yushin Okami vs. [#25] Dean Lister
Light Heavyweight
[#29] Matt Hamill vs. [#42] Reese Andy
Welterweight
[#22] Brad Blackburn vs. [#27] Ryo Chonan
Welterweight
[#114] Dan Evensen vs. [#200] Pat Barry
Ranking Notes: Rankings are projected when a fighter is fighting in a new weight class. Gray font represents an approximate ranking. An asterisk represents a fighter who is ranked, but too low for an approximation. These two scenarios will clear up slightly as we move forward. “NR” means the fighter is not ranked, due to inactivity, or due to a rating that is at or below the default starter rating.
MMA Rankings Updated: 12/24/08
Notable Info
- Mainly a maintenance update. There was a show from DEEP and some other bout updates, but mainly just a pre-UFC 92 refresh.
Top Lightweights outside of UFC
Last week I examined the top fighters in the UFC’s lightweight division. As mentioned, UFC has abandoned the weight class for several years, allowing other MMA organizations to step up and fill the void. Even though the lightweights are back in the UFC in a major way, it is K-1’s Dream promotion that boasts the most top fighters on their roster: four out of the Top 10, according to the latest Fightmatrix.com ranking. The other major player in the division is World Victory Road – a Japanese promotion that rose from the ashes of Pride FC.
With three major lightweight showdowns coming up in the next month (Hansen vs. Calvancante and Aoki vs. Alvarez on K-1’s year-end extravaganza, as well as Gomi vs. Kitaoka in WVR on January 4th), this is a good time to take a look at the ten top lightweights outside of the UFC.
December Archive Updated
Fightmatrix.com MMA rankings archive has been updated with the rankings as of December 7, 2008.
A trip in the wayback machine.. Heavyweights
Five years ago, there was a two-headed dragon at the top of the Heavyweight division, as the rating system would’ve had Fedor and Nog in a virtual tie. Fedor did have a decision win over Nog earlier in the year, but Fedor took the easy road for the remainder of 2003, while Nog knocked off Ricco Rodriguez and Mirko Filipovic. Both were top heavyweights at the time of those bouts, and still were at the end of 2003.
Heavyweights – December 20, 2003
| Rank | Fighter | Record | Points | |
| 1 |  Antonio Rodrigo NogueiraLast Fight: 11/9/2003 [PRIDE] |
21-2-1 |
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| 2 |  Fedor EmelianenkoLast Fight: 8/10/2003 [PRIDE] |
15-1-0 |
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| 3 |  Josh BarnettLast Fight: 10/13/2003 [NJPW] |
16-1-0 |
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| 4 | Tim Sylvia Last Fight: 9/26/2003 [UFC] |
18-1-0 |
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| 5 |  Mirko FilipovicLast Fight: 11/9/2003 [PRIDE] |
7-1-2 |
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| 6 | Pedro Rizzo Last Fight: 11/21/2003 [UFC] |
14-5-0 |
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| 7 | Ricco Rodriguez Last Fight: 11/21/2003 [UFC] |
14-4-0 |
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| 8 |  Andrei ArlovskiLast Fight: 9/26/2003 [UFC] |
5-3-0 |
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| 9 | Heath Herring Last Fight: 11/9/2003 [PRIDE] |
21-9-0 |
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| 10 | Mark Coleman Last Fight: 6/8/2003 [PRIDE] |
13-5-0 |
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Holiday Ranking Schedule
The next two updates will take place on Wednesday, December 24, 2008, and on Wednesday, December 31, 2008.
UFC’s Lightweight Division
To say that it has been a rough ride for the UFC’s 155 lbs division would be a bit of an understatement. The trouble began when the first champion of the weight class Jens Pulver left the organization in 2002 amidst a contract dispute. The UFC held a four-man tournament to crown a new champion, but failed to come up with a definitive winner when BJ Penn fought Caol Uno to a draw in the finals. And so the division was completely dismantled as the Zuffa-owned promotion was struggling financially at the time.
Fast forward to 2006: after the success of ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ reality series boosted UFC’s popularity and momentum, the organization decided to reinstate the lightweight division and crowned a new champion with a matchup between Kenny Florian and Sean Sherk. But the troubles were not over – after Sherk’s very first title defense, Sean as well as the challenger Hermes Franca both tested positive for banned anabolics and were suspended by the California State Athletic Commission. With the title once again vacated, BJ Penn defeated Joe Stevenson then Sean Sherk in back-to-back bouts, staking his claim as the new lightweight king. However with Penn now set to challenge Georges St. Pierre for the welterweight title, the lightweight championship may once again be placed on hold if Penn wins.
All these tribulations left the division weakened: according to the latest Fightmatrix.com rankings, only 4 of the Top 10 and 8 of the Top 20 lightweights in the world compete in the UFC’s Octagon. But don’t let the lack of top-ranked fighters fool you; this is a very deep division beyond the Top 20, with over 30 ranked fighters competing in UFC at 155 lbs. Here is a closer look at the UFC’s 20 highest ranked lightweights.
Ratings Redo.
I noticed we had some incomplete and missing results from the weekend, so I decided to re-run the ratings update!