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Weekend Preview: UFC 129 – St. Pierre vs. Shields

Posted on April 27, 2011 by Jonathan

Ultimate Fighting Championships 129 – St. Pierre vs. Shields

April 30, 2011
Rogers Centre,
Toronto, Ontario, Canada

 

UFC Welterweight Championship

Welterweight (170 lbs)
[#1] [#3DD] Georges St. Pierre (21 – 2 – 0) vs. [#2] [#9DD] Jake Shields  (26 – 4 – 1)

Two of the best pound for pound fighters in the sport in Georges St. Pierre and Jake Shields will clash this Saturday night.  St. Pierre comes into the fight on an 8 fight win streak, 5 by decision.  St. Pierre has been criticized in the past for not being a finisher, yet he remains a thoroughly dominant fighter.  His last loss came by way of a TKO (punches) at the hands of [#24] Matt Serra at UFC 69 back in April 2007.  St. Pierre lost the title that night in what was considered one of the biggest upsets in MMA history.  1 year and 3 victories later, St. Pierre rectified his 2nd career loss by winning the welterweight title back from Matt Serra via TKO (knees to the body) at UFC 83 in April 2008.  He went on to win 5 victories over top 10 competition, effectively cleaning out the division.  Enter Jake Shields.  The former Strikeforce middleweight champion comes into this fight riding an amazing 15 fight win streak (8 by stoppage).  Shields, who has also been criticized for having a rather prosaic and underwhelming fighting style himself, did not impress very much in his UFC debut.  After winning a contentious split decision over [#11] Martin Kampmann back at UFC 121 in October 2010, Shields was immediately thrust into the title picture because of his past accomplishments outside of the promotion.  Both men are adept on the ground, with Shields possibly having a slight submission grappling advantage on paper.  However, St. Pierre clearly has the wrestling as well as the boxing/stand up advantage.  St. Pierre will most likely be able to dictate where this fight goes.  Most expect St. Pierre to continue his march, but Shields does have a grapplers chance.  A victory for Shields would propel him to the pinnacle of the welterweight division, as well as the division dominance rankings.

UFC Featherweight Championship

Featherweight (145 lbs)
[#1] [#4DD] Jose Aldo  (18 – 1 – 0) vs. [#14] Mark Hominick (20 – 8 – 0)

Reigning featherweight kingpin Jose Aldo will make his first UFC featherweight title defense as well as his UFC debut this Saturday against Mark Hominick.  Aldo, who is on an 11 fight win streak (7 by T/KO), most recently knocked out [#10] Manny Gamburyan in September 2010 at WEC 51.  Aldo won the WEC featherweight title from [#25] Mike Brown at WEC 44 back in November of 2009.  He made two successful title defenses against [#3BW] Urijah Faber and Manny Gamburyan before the WEC merged with the UFC in January of 2011.  Aldo is seen as one of the most violent, dynamic fighters today.  Hominick is on a 5 fight winning streak, 4 by stoppage.  He most recently earned a title shot by TKOing [#61] George Roop in his 3rd promotional appearance (1st appearance at featherweight) at “UFC Fight for the Troops 2” in January 2011.  Hominick is a very game opponent who has been on a hot streak lately.  He has the ability to hurt his opponents standing or on the ground.  The problem for Hominick is that Jose Aldo most likely does everything he does better.   Hominick is a savvy veteran who will have to call on all his past experiences in order to stand a chance against the pound for pound ranked Aldo.

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Odd Ranking Change of the week

Posted on April 27, 2011 by Jason

If you’ve got a really keen eye, or have stumbled upon our new “Fighter Search” feature that includes ousted fighters along with the primary reason as to why, you may have noticed this:

That’s not a bug.  Two fighters named Yutaka Ueda, both fighting in the Lightweight division, were ousted from the rankings this week.  One was due to inactivity, and the other was due to a loss on the Shooto card.

Now that’s something you’ll probably never see again.

Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)

Monday, May 4th 2026: Deep 131 Impact: 25th Anniversary
 [#2 SW] Sora Sugiyama [#14 SW] Sukai China
Last Fight Date: 12/14/2025 [DEEP]
Last Opponent: [#6 SW] Haruo Ochi
Last 5: - - W W W
Last Fight Date: 3/08/2026 [DEEP]
Last Opponent: [NR] Musashi Musashi
Last 5: W W W W W
Sunday, April 12th 2026: RIZIN LANDMARK 13 in FUKUOKA
 [#24 W115] Natalia Kuziutina [#6 W105] Ayaka Hamasaki
Last Fight Date: 8/16/2025 [Ural Fighting Championship]
Last Opponent: [#77 W115] Rose Conceicao
Last 5: W W W W W
Last Fight Date: 11/23/2025 [DEEP]
Last Opponent: [#14 W105] Ye Ji Lee
Last 5: W L W L W
Saturday, April 25th 2026: OKTAGON 87: Szabová vs. Fernandes
 [#17 W135] Lucia Szabova [#25 W125] Leidiane Fernandes
Last Fight Date: 8/09/2025 [Oktagon MMA]
Last Opponent: [#96 W135] Cecilie Maria Bolander
Last 5: W W W W W
Last Fight Date: 10/25/2025 [Jungle Fight]
Last Opponent: [#44 W125] Brena Cardozo
Last 5: W W L W W

Featured Fighters

[#12 MW]  Israel Adesanya [#262 WW]  Rustambek Nurzhanov
[#5 MW]  Joe Pyfer [NR]  Guy Mezger
[#30 LW]  Tofiq Musayev [#834 LW]  Daniel Holt
[#5 W125]  Alexa Grasso [#19 WW]  Michael Chiesa
[#52 MW]  Yousri Belgaroui [#1 LHW]  Alex Pereira
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This Past Weekend: Bellator 42

Posted on April 25, 2011 by Jonathan

Bellator Fighting Championships 42
April 23, 2011

Lucky Star Casino,
Concho, Oklahoma, United States

Bellator Light Heavyweight Tournament Semifinal

Light Heavyweight (205 lbs)
Richard Hale (17 – 3 – 1) defeated D.J. Linderman (9 – 2 – 0) by split decision.  The bout was back and forth on the feet much of the time.  The fight tipped in favor of Hale when he fell into mount on top of Linderman in the 3rd round.  The larger Hale was able to switch between mount and back control as Linderman struggled to break free.  Hale  jumps 16 spots up from [#51] to [#35].  Hale is on a 4 fight win streak, and is 8-1-1 in his last 10.  He will face [#42] Christian M’Pumbu in the finals of the season 4 light heavyweight tournament.  Linderman drops 9 spots from [#29] to [#38].  Linderman was on a 4 fight win streak prior to this loss.

Featherweight (145 lbs)
British prospect Ronnie Mann (19 – 2 – 1) defeated Josh Arocho (6 – 10 – 0) by unanimous decision.  Mann used superior striking and grappling to outclass Arocho in virtually every aspect of the fight.  Arocho would not be finished, and fought valiantly until the closing bell.  Mann, who is on a 3 fight win streak and is 8-1 in his last 9 fights, jumps 21 spots up from, [#84 ] to [#63].  Look to see Mann in the upcoming featherweight tournament.   Arocho, who was ranked at [#406LW], falls off the rankings.  Arocho is 1-4 in his last 5.

Bellator Light Heavyweight Tournament Semifinal

Light Heavyweight (205 lbs)
Christian M’Pumbu (17 – 3 – 1) defeated Tim Carpenter (7 – 1 – 0) by TKO due to punches at 2:08 of the 1st round.  M’Pumbu, who is on a 2 fight win streak and is 6-1 in his last 7, moves up 7 spots from [#49] to [#42].  M’Pumbu struck early and often, using his reach to effectively counterstrike .    M’Pumbu will meet [#35] Richard Hale in the finals of the season 4 light heavyweight tournament.   Carpenter drops 22 spots from [#114] to [#136].

Keep Reading

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MMA Rankings Updated: 4/25/2011

Posted on April 25, 2011 by Jason

Notable Info

  • New rankings to be posted at about 10:15AM Eastern.  I allowed another 24 hours or so for late results to funnel in, but it didn’t seem to help matters much.
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This Upcoming Weekend: Bellator 42, Saturday on MTV2

Posted on April 22, 2011 by Jonathan

Bellator Fighting Championships 42
April 23, 2011
Lucky Star Casino,
Concho, Oklahoma, United States

Bellator Light Heavyweight Tournament Semifinals
Light Heavyweight (205 lbs)
[#29] D.J. Linderman (9 – 1 – 0) vs. [#51] Richard Hale (16 – 3 – 1)

Light Heavyweight (205 lbs)
[#49] Christian M’Pumbu (16 – 3 – 1) vs. [#114] Tim Carpenter (7 – 0 – 0)

Other Bouts

Featherweight (145 lbs)
[#84] Ronnie Mann (18 – 2 – 1) vs. [#406LW] Josh Arocho (6 – 9 – 0)

Bantamweight (135 lbs)
[#69] Luiz Alberto Nogueira (10 – 1 – 0) vs. [*] Jerod Spoon (5 – 1 – 1)

Middleweight (185 lbs)
[#70] Jared Hess (10 – 2 – 1) vs. [*] Chris Bell (10 – 3 – 0)

Bantamweight (135 lbs)
[#22FLY] Shane Howell (9 – 7 – 0) vs. [#145] Mark Oshiro (12 – 3 – 0)

Heavyweight (265 lbs)
[#66] Mark Holata (10 – 2 – 0) vs. [*] Chris Guillen (13 – 12 – 0)

Featherweight (145 lbs)
[*] Owen Evinger (6 – 0 – 0) vs. [*] Brandon Shelton (16 – 5 – 0)

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Yearly % of Bouts by Division

Posted on April 21, 2011 by Jason

 

If I get a chance, I’ll make the lines easier to follow, but this is a list of the proportion of divisional bouts (using our limits — men only) taking place within a calendar year.  In other words, 27.6% of bouts in 2001 that we have division info for, took place at Heavyweight.

Here is a summary data chart for the presented data:

Fly Bantam Feather Light Welter Middle LtHeavy Heavy
Avg 2.4% 5.1% 10.4% 19.2% 17.3% 15.7% 11.3% 18.5%
2001 1.1% 4.7% 6.9% 12.7% 15.2% 14.4% 17.4% 27.6%
2011 3.0% 8.6% 13.6% 23.3% 19.6% 14.5% 9.2% 8.2%
Diff 2.7x 1.8x 2.0x 1.8x 1.3x 1.0x 0.5x 0.3x

I suppose this data could be somewhat influenced by my data mining and availability.  After all, it was much easier to assume that Dan Severn fought an indie bout in 2001 at Heavyweight than to figure out if Matt Hughes fought at Welter or Middle, at a random Extreme Challenge event.

That aside, the trends don’t lie.  The proportions of Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight have taken drastic drops since 2001 in the amount of bouts that have taken place at those divisions.  Middleweight has stayed pretty constant throughout, while the lighter divisions have seen a huge increase in bouts.  Check out Flyweight, with a proportion increase of almost 3 times!

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The Ultimate Fighter 13 – Episode 4 Results

Posted on April 20, 2011 by Oleg

In the fourth opening round fight, Team Dos Santos’ Ramsey Nijem defeated Team Lesnar’s Charlie Rader by tapout due to a rear naked choke in the second round, advancing to the quarter-finals.

The current win tally is 3 Team Dos Santos, 1 Team Lesnar.

Here’s who remains:

[#113] Anthony Ferguson

[#182] Justin Edwards
episode 3: alternate taking place of Keon Caldwell

[#179] Myles Jury
episode 1: forced to withdraw due to an injury

[#200] Ryan McGillivray
episode 3: moved on to quarter-finals with a majority decision win (20-18, 20-18, 19-19) over Len Bentley

[#247 LW] Ramsey Nijem
episode 4: moved on to quarter-finals with a second round submission (rear naked choke) win over Charlie Rader

[#289] Chuck O’Neil
episode 1: alternate taking place of Miles Jury

[#321] Charlie Rader
episode 4: lost to Ramsey Nijem with a second round submission (rear naked choke).

[#364] Shamar Bailey
episode 1: moved on to quarter-finals with a 20-18 unanimous decision win over Nordin Asrih

[#387] Clay Harvison

[#441] Chris Cope
episode 2: moved on to quarter-finals with a 29-28 overtime unanimous decision win over Javier Torres

[#475] Len Bentley
episode 3:lost a majority decision win (20-18, 20-18, 19-19) to Ryan McGillivray

[NR] Nordin Asrih
episode 1: lost a unanimous decision (20-18) to Shamar Bailey

[NR] Michael Bowman

[NR] Keon Caldwell
episode 2: withdrew from competition

[NR] Zachary Davis

[NR] Javier Torres
episode 2: lost an overtime unanimous decision (29-28) to Chris Cope

This Past Weekend: Friday, April 15th, 2011

Posted on April 20, 2011 by Jonathan

These are the results from this past Friday and how they affected the fighter’s rankings.

Scrap Live – Fight Night 7
April 15, 2011

LJVM Coliseum Annex,
Winston-Salem, North Carolina, United States

Middleweight (185 lbs)

UFC veteran Rodney Wallace (11 – 4 – 0) defeated Cale Yarborough (8 – 3 – 0) by unanimous decision.  Since being released from the UFC in Auugust 2010, Wallace has gone 2-1.  Wallace moves from [#61LHW] into the middleweight “Top 350” at [#57] Yarborough, who is 2-3 in his last 5, drops 19 spots from  [#172] to [#191].

Lightweight (155 lbs)

“Ultimate Fighter” alum Cameron Dollar  (9 – 2 – 0) choked out Sylvain Bynum (4 – 2 – 0), winning by technical submission due to triangle choke at 1:46 of round 1.  Dollar, who was ranked at [#80FW], enters the lightweight “Top 500” at [#209].  Dollar is on a 5 fight win streak, all by stoppage.  Bynum, who is on a 2 fight losing streak, remains unranked.

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Shields/GSP: A Gambling Analysis

Posted on April 20, 2011 by Jason

Since my last gambling article went so well, I bring you the next edition of said article and this time we’re going to focus on GSP/Shields at UFC 129.

BetUS, the online sportsbook offers GSP as a -450 favorite, which means that to win $100, you would actually have to bet $450.  Now, comparing the odds to the perceived chance of winning is not like comparing oranges to oranges (more like pears to asian pears), but doing so reveals that GSP would be a good bet if you think he has greater than a 81.8% chance of winning.

How can you not like GSP in this match-up?  He’s already cemented himself as one of the very best fighters ever, and according to my recent “Age: Part V” article, he’s right in the zone of age/career age combination that sees some of the best winning percentages.  The only problem is, Shields is also in that same area.  Neither fighter has a significant age or size advantage; Shields is taller, but GSP has a larger reach — an old boxing study I performed showed that a reach advantage is markedly more important than height.  Needless to say though, there will probably be a lot of grappling here.

To make a long story short, I think this one goes the distance with GSP taking a 49-46 type of decision.

So, what do you do here?  I have to be very sure to recommend putting money on a -450 favorite and quite honestly, I’m not THAT sure.  Then again, Shields at +325 seems like a waste of coin.  I would go very small on GSP to win.

On the undercard, I’d say go big on Machida at -350.  Couture hasn’t fought a live opponent in nearly two years and is two months away from 48.

This Past Weekend: Bellator 41

Posted on April 18, 2011 by Jonathan

Bellator Fighting Championships 41
April 16, 2011

Cocopah Resort and Casino,
Yuma, Arizona, United States

Non Title Bout

Catchweight (137 lbs)
Bellator featherweight champion Joe Warren (7 – 1 – 0) won a contentious unanimous decision over Marcos Galvao (9 – 4 – 1).  Warren, who is the Bellator featherweight (145 lb) champion, moves from [#6FW] to [#4BW].  Warren is now on a 5 fight win streak.  Consensus was that Galvao won rounds 1 and 2, while Warren won round 3.  Many people are calling the decision for Warren a “robbery.”  Galvao, who was on a 3 fight win streak prior to this loss, moves from [#108FW] to [#51BW].  Both men intend to fight in the upcoming bantamweight tournament coming up in September.

Bellator Featherweight Tournament Semifinal

Featherweight (145 lbs)
Patricio Freire (16 – 1 – 0) defeated Wilson Reis (12 – 3 – 0) by brutal KO due to punches at 3:29 of round 3.  The bout was relatively even up to the end, with Freire using his reach and counter striking game to edge out a slight advantage.  Freire found the chinks in Reis’s armor, and finally capitalized on them in the third round, overwhelming his opponent of shorter stature.   Freire jumps 10 spots up from [#21] to [#11]. His one loss comes to current featherweight champ [#4BW] Joe Warren.  He will face [#15] Daniel Straus in the finals of the season 4 featherweight tournament.  Reis drops 9 spots from [#22] to [#31].  2 out of 3 of Reis’s losses, who had never been stopped prior to this loss, come at the hands of Freire.

Non Title Bout

Bantamweight (135 lbs)
Bellator bantamweight champion Zach Makovsky (13 – 2 – 0) defeated Chad Robichaux (11 – 1 – 0) by TKO due to punches at 2:02 of round 3.  Makovsky used his superior wrestling to stifle the unorthodox offense of Robichaux.  A thrilling affair with many scrambles, Robichaux put forth a valiant attempt in his loss to the 135 lb champ.  Makovsky, who is on a 7 fight win streak, falls 1 spot from [#8] to [#9].   Robichaux, who was ranked at  [#37Fly], fell off the rankings.  Robichaux, an 11 year veteran of the sport, has won 10 of his 11 victories by submission.

Bellator Featherweight Tournament Semifinal

Featherweight (145 lbs)
Daniel Straus (16 – 3 – 0) defeated Kenny Foster (9 – 3 – 0) by submission due to guillotine choke at 3:48 of the 3rd round.  Straus, who is on a 12 fight win streak, moves up 2 spots from [#17] to [#15].  Straus used throws and superior clinchwork to vex Foster.    Straus will meet [#11] Patricio Freire in the finals of the season 4 featherweight tournament.   Foster, who dropped 3 spots from [#109] to [#112], is 8-2 in his last 10.

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MMA Rankings Updated: 4/17/2011

Posted on April 17, 2011 by Jason

Tonight – Bellator 41 on MTV2

Posted on April 16, 2011 by Jonathan

Bellator Fighting Championships 41
April 16, 2011
Cocopah Resort and Casino,
Yuma, Arizona, United States

Non Title Bout
Catchweight (137 lbs)
[#6 FW] Joe Warren (6 – 1 – 0) vs. [#108 FW] Marcos Galvao (9 – 3 – 1)

Non Title Bout
Bantamweight (135 lbs)
[#8] Zach Makovsky (12 – 2 – 0) vs. [#37 FLY] Chad Robichaux (11 – 0 – 0)

Bellator Featherweight Tournament Semifinals
Featherweight (145 lbs)
[#21] Patricio Freire (15 – 1 – 0) vs. [#22] Wilson Reis (12 – 2 – 0)

Featherweight (145 lbs)
[#17] Daniel Straus (16 – 2 – 0) vs. [#109] Kenny Foster (9 – 2 – 0)

Other Bouts

Heavyweight (265 lbs)
[#128] Carlos Flores (4 – 0 – 0) vs. [*] Rudy Aguilar (0 – 1 – 0)

Bantamweight (135 lbs)
[*] Anthony Birchak (4 – 0 – 0) vs. [*] Tyler Bialecki (7 – 3 – 0)

Featherweight (145 lbs)
[#205] Nick Piedmont (4 – 1 – 0) vs. [#419LW] Michael Parker (6 – 3 – 0)

Welterweight? (170 lbs)
[#286] Alex Garcia (12 – 4 – 0) vs. [*] Jose Diaz (2 – 10 – 0)

This Past Saturday, April 9th Results and Rankings (Better late than never)!

Posted on April 16, 2011 by Jonathan

These are the results from this past Saturday and how they affected the fighter’s rankings.

Ringside MMA 10 – Cote vs. Starnes
April 9, 2011
Bell Centre,
Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Middleweight (185 lbs)

UFC veteran Patrick Cote (14 – 7 – 0) defeated fellow UFC vet Kalib Starnes (12 – 6 – 1) by unanimous decision.  Cote, who was on a 3 fight losing streak inside the UFC, jumps 34 spots from [#95] to [#61].  Starnes, who is 3-2 in his last 5, drops 22 spots from [#73] to [#95].

Welterweight (170 lbs)

TUF veteran Seth Baczynski (13 – 6 – 0) defeated Alex Garcia (6 – 1 – 0) by TKO due to punches at 2:44 of the 2nd round.  Baczynski, who is on a 2 fight win streak (both by stoppages due to strikes), bounds 58 spots up from [#186] to [#128].  Garcia, who rattled off 6 stoppage wins in a row prior to this loss, plummets 151 spots from [#228] to [#379].

Featherweight (145 lbs)

Michael Gagnon (7 – 1 – 0) defeated Rejean Groulx (5 – 1 – 0) by TKO due a slam at 3:47 of the 3rd round.  Gagnon, who is on a 5 fight win streak (all by stoppage), jumps 43 spots up from [#115] to [#72].  Groulx, who has finished 4 of his 5 victories by stoppage, plummets 109 spots from [#136] to [#245].

Light Heavyweight (205 lbs)

Roger Hollett (12 – 3 – 0) defeated Martin Desilets (11 – 3 – 0) by TKO due to punches at 1:39 of the 2nd round.  Hollett, who is on a 4 fight win streak, jumps 55 spots up from [#102] to [#47].  Desilets, who was on a 4 fight win streak, drops 25 spots from [#43] to [#68].

Lightweight (155 lbs)

Iraj Hadin (6 – 3 – 0) won a unanimous decision over Derek Gauthier (6 – 3 – 0).  Hadin, who is 3-2 in his last 5, jumps 67 spots from [#219] to [#286].  Gauthier, who is 2-3 in his last 5, remains unranked.

Lightweight (155 lbs)

Bellator veteran Mike Ricci (6 – 1 – 0) defeated Jesse Ronson (5 – 2 – 0) by TKO due to punches at 3:12 of round 1.  Ricci, who rebounded from a loss to Bellator lightweight tournament champion [#44] Pat Curran, jumps 51 spots from [#295] to [#244].  Ronson, who is 1-2 in his last 3, remains unranked.

Keep Reading

Bellator signs FightMatrix #3 Bantamweight Prospect

Posted on April 15, 2011 by Jason

Luiz Alberto Nogueira has just been signed by Bellator (Source: Sherdog)

Maybe someone paid close attention to the article?

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Age: Its Impact on Fights (Part V)

Posted on April 14, 2011 by Jason

Today, we’re going to look at a fighter’s prime, and if a distinctive peak period can be ascertained by looking at a combination of age AND “career age” (time between debut date and fight date).  In most professional sports, it’s usually agreed upon that a person’s prime is between their late 20s and early-mid 30s, with women having the potential of reaching this prime a few years later.

First, I took all of the fight outcomes where a fighter had a valid birth date and grouped my counts by age and career age.

For the record, a fighter’s first year is treated as year 0, just like a person’s age.

The Top 5 most common combinations are:

 

Age Career
Age
23 1
24 1
25 1
22 1
24 2

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