UFC Fight Night 71: Mir vs Duffee will take place in San Diego, California, and features a very solid line-up.  Which is a bit surprising considering that it  is the third UFC event in 5 days, but I can’t complain.  With two very good fights topping the bill, and a few decent bouts scattered through the undercard, I am looking forward to this mid-week event.

Main Event: [#10 HW] Frank Mir vs [#32 HW] Todd Duffee

Worth: $15

Why: After four consecutive losses, most MMA fans including myself thought that Frank Mir’s storied UFC career was pretty much over.  But a recent TKO over Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva gave Mir his first win since 2011, a spot in the heavyweight top 10 among several of his contemporaries, and a matchup with one of the very few UFC heavyweights under 30.  Todd Duffee was considered a top prospect when he made his UFC debut in 2009, but his career has been hampered by injuries, as he’s fought only 5 times since then.  Duffee is 2-0 in his current UFC stint, though nearly two years have passed in between those two bouts.  I really don’t know what to expect from this fight, other than a violent finish of some sort.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#10] Frank Mir (17-9-0) vs. [#32] Todd Duffee (9-2-0)
Frank Mir is the All-Time #14 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Frank Mir (1-2-0)
2015-02-22: W vs. [#11HW+] Antonio Silva (18-7-1) via KO (Elbows) in 1:40 of round 1
2014-02-01: L vs. [#8HW+] Alistair Overeem (39-14-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-08-31: L vs. [*] Josh Barnett (33-7-0) via TKO (Knee) in 1:56 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Todd Duffee (3-0-0)
2014-12-06: W vs. [#47HW+] Anthony Hamilton (14-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:33 of round 1
2012-12-29: W vs. [#83HW+] Philip De Fries (11-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:04 of round 1
2012-04-07: W vs. [*] Neil Grove (12-7-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:34 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Frank Mir 143, Todd Duffee 221
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#11] Tony Ferguson (18-3-0) vs. [#12] Josh Thomson (20-7-0)

Last 3 Fights: Tony Ferguson (3-0-0)
2015-02-28: W vs. [#30LW] Gleison Tibau (32-11-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:37 of round 1
2014-12-06: W vs. [#66LW] Abel Trujillo (12-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:19 of round 2
2014-08-30: W vs. [#57LW] Danny Castillo (17-8-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Josh Thomson (1-2-0)
2014-07-26: L vs. [#19LW] Bobby Green (23-6-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2014-01-25: L vs. [#4LW] Ben Henderson (22-5-0) via SD (49-46, 47-48, 48-47)
2013-04-20: W vs. [#18LW] Nate Diaz (17-10-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:44 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tony Ferguson 137, Josh Thomson 354
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Tony Ferguson leads 1-0
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#11] Holly Holm (8-0-0) vs. [#13] Marion Reneau (6-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Holly Holm (3-0-0)
2015-02-28: W vs. [#17BW] Raquel Pennington (5-5-0) via SD ()
2014-04-04: W vs. [#27FLY] Juliana Werner (8-5-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:50 of round 5
2013-12-06: W vs. [#111FLY] Angela Hayes (6-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Marion Reneau (3-0-0)
2015-02-22: W vs. [#18BW] Jessica Andrade (12-4-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 1:54 of round 1
2015-01-03: W vs. [#97BW] Alexis Dufresne (5-2-0) via UD (30-25, 30-26, 30-26)
2014-07-25: W vs. [NA] Maureen Riordon (0-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:15 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Holly Holm 137, Marion Reneau 143
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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If you’ve been hiding out under a 145-lbs rock for a few weeks, it might come as a surprise that UFC 189 is not the only MMA event taking place in an eight-sided cage this weekend.  For some odd reason, UFC decided to follow the biggest Pay-Per-View event of the year with a rather bland and pedestrian Ultimate Fighter Season 21 finale the very next day.  To be fair, this is actually a decent card by TUF Finale standards.  There are no titles or even title shots on the line here, and I’ve stopped watching ‘TUF’ many seasons ago, so I don’t care much about the finals per se.  Still, there is a handful of fights worth catching here, and if you’re a gambler, perhaps recoup some of your losses from the Mendes-McGregor fight on one of MMA betting sites.

Main Event: [#15 WW] Jake Ellenberger vs [#29 WW] Stephen Thompson

Worth: $10

Why: A seasoned veteran taking on a young prospect: a story as old as combat sports.  But it’s always unusual when the veteran is actually younger than the prospect, despite having a huge advantage in fight experience (or disadvantage in the mileage/wear and tear that comes with the fight experience, depending on how you look at it).  Such is the case in this fight:  30 year old Ellenberger has been fighting for over 10 years, with 39 recorded professional bouts under his belt, while his 32 year old opponent has only been in the sport for 5 years and competed in just 11 fights.

Ellenberger is a fairly well-rounded fighter, who tends to overly rely on his punching power, yet often hesitates to pull the trigger in striking exchanges.  This has prevented him from ever getting  a shot at the welterweight gold, and cost him 3 consecutive losses.  On the verge of losing his spot on the UFC roster, ‘The Juggernaut’ made a nice comeback with a second round submission of Josh Koscheck, and will now look to build another win streak.  Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson is primarily a striker,  with the only loss of his career coming via a decision courtesy of Matt Brown.  Although Thompson’s last fight with Patrick Cote was a very boring affair, the karate expert has knocked out 3 of his 6 UFC opponents, so Ellenberger would be wise to take this fight to the ground.  However Jake has never demonstrated a great fight IQ, so I expect him to attempt slugging it out with Thompson.  This fight could really be anything from a quick and brutal KO by either opponent, to a 5-round dance competition.  Of course I am hoping it doesn’t turn into the latter.

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Welterweight (170)
[#15] Jake Ellenberger (30-9-0) vs. [#29] Stephen Thompson (10-1-0)
Jake Ellenberger is the All-Time #20 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jake Ellenberger (1-2-0)
2015-02-28: W vs. [#113WW] Josh Koscheck (17-10-0) via Submission (North South Choke) in 4:20 of round 2
2014-11-15: L vs. [#12MW] Kelvin Gastelum (11-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:46 of round 1
2014-05-24: L vs. [#1WW/#9DD/#8P4P] Robbie Lawler (25-10-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 3:06 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Stephen Thompson (3-0-0)
2014-09-27: W vs. [#44WW] Patrick Cote (21-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2014-02-22: W vs. [#19MW] Robert Whittaker (14-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:43 of round 1
2013-09-21: W vs. [#202WW] Chris Clements (12-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:27 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Ellenberger 134, Stephen Thompson 288
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#39] Kamaru Usman (5-1-0) vs. [#231] Hayder Hassan (6-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Kamaru Usman (3-0-0)
2014-07-18: W vs. [#724WW] Marcus Hicks (10-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 5:00 of round 2
2014-04-04: W vs. [#986MW] Lenny Lovato (8-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 3
2014-01-31: W vs. [NA] Steven Rodriguez (2-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:31 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Hayder Hassan (3-0-0)
2014-10-31: W vs. [#615WW] Felipe Portela (8-2-0) via TKO (Punch) in 3:23 of round 1
2013-10-12: W vs. [#249LW] Jason Jackson (4-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:32 of round 3
2010-04-30: W vs. [NA] Robert Thompson (11-18-0) via UD ()

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kamaru Usman 359, Hayder Hassan 254
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#118MW] Vicente Luque (7-4-1) vs. [#151] Mike Graves (4-0-0)

Last 3 Fights: Vicente Luque (2-1-0)
2014-06-21: W vs. [#713WW] Paulistenio Rocha (7-3-1) via UD ()
2013-07-13: L vs. [#115MW] Carlos Alexandre Pereira (31-10-1) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 0:44 of round 3
2013-05-10: W vs. [*] Marcelo Lisboa (6-2-0) via TKO in 0:00 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Mike Graves (3-0-0)
2014-10-31: W vs. [#1111WW] Rafael Souza (7-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:37 of round 2
2014-04-03: W vs. [#974WW] Rico Farrington (3-2-0) via in of round 1
2013-06-21: W vs. [NA] Danny Finz (0-2-0) via TKO in 1:26 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vicente Luque 386, Mike Graves 254
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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UFC 189 is one of the most anticipated, and definitely the most hyped, Pay-Per-View event of the year thus far. The hype was mainly centered around Conor McGregor challenging Jose Aldo for the featherweight championship. Of course, no UFC event is left untouched by the injury curse, and a couple of weeks before the event Aldo suffered a rib injury in training.  After much hemming and hawing regarding the severity of his injury and whether he will be able to compete, it was finally announced that Jose’s rib is broken, and Chad Mendes will step up on short notice to face McGregor for an interim belt.

Despite the main event going down the crapper, this still remains of the most stacked cards in recent memory, and one of the few that will meet and even exceed the price of a UFC PPV. I usually wait until a day or two before the event to publish these blogs, as to account for last minute injuries and other unexpected changes in the line up; however with 4 UFC events in an 8-day span I’ll have to get started early, and keep it short.  Let’s just hope the rest of this card remains intact till Saturday.

Main Card (Pay-Per-View)

Main Event: [#4 FW] Chad Mendes vs [#6 FW] Conor McGregor  for the Interim UFC Featherweight Championship

Worth: $20

Why: Though I was looking forward to Aldo – McGregor, I am really not that upset about this fight falling through.  The UFC hype machine fast-tracked Conor to a title shot without him having to face any of the other top contenders in the division, or an opponent with legitimate wrestling/grappling credentials. The match-up with Mendes addresses both of the above critiques, and will answer a few questions about whether McGregor is just hype or the real deal.  Creating an interim title for a rib injury is silly but understandable:  it allows UFC to keep McGregor in the main event, and it’s obvious that they want to put some kind of gold around the waist of one of their biggest draws at the moment – even if it’s a meaningless paper belt.  Let’s just ignore the whole interim title thing, and consider it a #1 contender match: if Conor wins, the ‘title unification’ fight with Aldo will be even more anticipated than UFC 189.  Conor McGregor is a very polarizing figure, and the odds have him as a slight favorite, so if you don’t buy into the hype and enjoy MMA betting, here’s your chance to put your money where your mouse is. As for me, I won’t make any predictions on this fight… not even touching it with Mauro Ranallo’s 25-centimeter pole.

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Featherweight Championship (145)
[#4] Chad Mendes (17-2-0, +129) vs. [#6] Conor McGregor (17-2-0, -153)
Chad Mendes is the All-Time #6 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Chad Mendes (2-1-0)
2015-04-04: W vs. [#8FW] Ricardo Lamas (15-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:45 of round 1
2014-10-25: L vs. [#1FW/#4DD/#3P4P] Jose Aldo (25-1-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2013-12-14: W vs. [#15FW] Nik Lentz (25-7-2) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Conor McGregor (3-0-0)
2015-01-18: W vs. [#31FW] Dennis Siver (22-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 2
2014-09-27: W vs. [#24LW] Dustin Poirier (18-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:46 of round 1
2014-07-19: W vs. [#41FW] Diego Brandao (19-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:05 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chad Mendes 98, Conor McGregor 174
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight Championship (170)
[#1/#9DD/#8P4P] Robbie Lawler (25-10-0, +156) vs. [#3/#10P4P] Rory MacDonald (18-2-0, -186)
Robbie Lawler is the All-Time #6 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Rory MacDonald is the All-Time #15 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Robbie Lawler (3-0-0)
2014-12-06: W vs. [#2WW/#9P4P] Johny Hendricks (17-3-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 49-46)
2014-07-26: W vs. [#11WW] Matt Brown (19-13-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2014-05-24: W vs. [#15WW] Jake Ellenberger (30-9-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 3:06 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Rory MacDonald (3-0-0)
2014-10-04: W vs. [#19WW] Tarec Saffiedine (15-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:28 of round 3
2014-06-14: W vs. [#4WW] Tyron Woodley (15-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-02-22: W vs. [#8WW] Demian Maia (20-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robbie Lawler 217, Rory MacDonald 280
Previous Match-up Record: Robbie Lawler leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#14] Dennis Bermudez (14-4-0, -208) vs. [#17] Jeremy Stephens (23-11-0, +171)

Last 3 Fights: Dennis Bermudez (2-1-0)
2014-11-15: L vs. [#8FW] Ricardo Lamas (15-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:18 of round 1
2014-07-26: W vs. [#10FW] Clay Guida (32-15-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:57 of round 2
2014-03-15: W vs. [#142FW] Jim Hettes (11-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Knee) in 2:57 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Jeremy Stephens (1-2-0)
2014-12-12: L vs. [#7FW] Charles Oliveira (20-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2014-06-28: L vs. [#9FW] Cub Swanson (21-7-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2014-01-25: W vs. [#24FW] Darren Elkins (18-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dennis Bermudez 238, Jeremy Stephens 211
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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UFC Fight Night 70: Machida vs Romero was originally supposed to take place in Brazil, as the finale of ‘The Ultimate Fighter Brazil’ Season 4.  For reasons unknown to me, the event was moved to US some weeks back, and a number of Brazilian fighters scheduled to fight were not able to secure their travel visas in time.   This really played havoc on the fight card – besides losing the ‘TUF’ finalists, the scheduled co-main event between Rick Story and Eric Silva has also been postponed, among with some other changes to the line up.  Fortunately, the main event of Lyoto Machida vs Yoel Romero remained intact, saving the card from being a total dud.

Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Main Event: [#4 MW] Lyoto Machida  vs  [#9 MW] Yoel Romero

Worth: $20

Why: This is a great fight, with significant implications for both opponents as well as the divisional picture.  The 38-year-old former Olympian, Yoel ‘Soldier of God’ Romero rose quickly through the middleweight rankings after his UFC debut.  He has won all five of his UFC bouts, most recent being a somewhat controversial TKO victory over Tim Kennedy.  Besides his world-class wrestling credentials, Romero has very fluid striking and immense stopping power and generally prefers to keep the fight standing, which resulted in all but one of his wins ending in a T/KO.  Romero was twice slated to face off with Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza, but the fight fell through both times due to injuries.  He now takes on a very different breed of beast in Lyoto Machida, and a win here will put him very close to a shot at the title.

Former UFC light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida, though a year younger than his opponent, has had a much longer MMA career, and the wear and tear of it may be starting to take a toll on his body. Though he’s been fairly successful since dropping down to 185 lbs, Machida is 6-6 overall since suffering the first loss of his career in a rematch for the 205 lbs with Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua.  In his latest fight, Machida was absolutely decimated by Luke Rockhold; I was very surprised by how one-side the fight was, considering that Lyoto went the distance with the champion Chris Weidman, and was even somewhat competitive against former light heavyweight champ Jon Jones.  Perhaps he just had an off night, or a bad weight cut, or was suffering from an undisclosed injury.  Or maybe Rockhold is just that good.  However there’s always the possibility that Machida is nearing the end of his run as an elite fighter.  This is the quickest turn-around between fights in Lyoto’s UFC career – he is obviously in a rush to put the Rockhold loss behind him and get back on the winning track.

Stylistically, this is a interesting bout.  Romero’s striking based game plan and often porous defense could leave him susceptible to counter strikes, which are Machida’s bread and butter.  Yoel tends to be a slow starter and we’ve seen him get rocked early in several fights, only to be saved by his concrete chin and deep gas tank.  Machida has a clear advantage in striking technique, whereas Romero  has significantly greater power in his hands.  Romero has a wrestling advantage, but mainly uses the threat of takedowns to keep his opponents guessing and as an opportunity to land a fight-ending blow.  When he does score a takedown, he rarely keeps his opponent on the mat for an extended period of time, so I don’t expect the ground game to play a significant role in this fight.  I tend to avoid making predictions, but I’ll go out on a limb here and pick Romero by a late TKO, propelling him into the Top 5 and keeping his win streak alive.

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Middleweight (185)
[#4] Lyoto Machida (22-6-0, 186.0lb, -187) vs. [#9] Yoel Romero (9-1-0, 186.0lb, +158)
Lyoto Machida is the All-Time #13 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Lyoto Machida (1-2-0)
2015-04-18: L vs. [#2MW] Luke Rockhold (14-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:31 of round 2
2014-12-20: W vs. [#15MW] C.B. Dollaway (15-7-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 1:02 of round 1
2014-07-05: L vs. [#1MW/#1DD/#2P4P] Chris Weidman (13-0-0) via UD (49-45, 48-47, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Yoel Romero (3-0-0)
2014-09-27: W vs. [#13MW] Tim Kennedy (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:58 of round 3
2014-04-19: W vs. [#27MW] Brad Tavares (13-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-01-15: W vs. [#21MW] Derek Brunson (13-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:23 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lyoto Machida 70, Yoel Romero 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#26] Lorenz Larkin (15-4-0, 170.5lb, -219) vs. [#36] Santiago Ponzinibbio (20-2-0, 170.5lb, +180)

Last 3 Fights: Lorenz Larkin (1-2-0)
2015-01-18: W vs. [#54WW] John Howard (22-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:17 of round 1
2014-08-30: L vs. [#21MW] Derek Brunson (13-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-05-10: L vs. [#17MW] Costas Philippou (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:47 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Santiago Ponzinibbio (2-1-0)
2015-02-22: W vs. [#96WW] Sean Strickland (15-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-09-13: W vs. [#245WW] Wendell de Oliveira Marqu (24-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:20 of round 1
2013-11-09: L vs. [#25WW] Ryan LaFlare (11-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lorenz Larkin 160, Santiago Ponzinibbio 125
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#55] Eddie Gordon (7-3-0, 184.5lb, +158) vs. [#104LHW] Antonio Carlos Jr. (4-1-0, 185.0lb, -188)

Last 3 Fights: Eddie Gordon (1-2-0)
2015-04-18: L vs. [#53MW] Chris Dempsey (11-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2014-12-06: L vs. [#30MW] Josh Samman (11-2-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 3:08 of round 2
2014-07-06: W vs. [#152WW] Dhiego Lima (10-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:11 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Antonio Carlos Jr. (2-1-0)
2014-12-20: L vs. [#44LHW] Patrick Cummins (7-2-0) via UD ()
2014-05-31: W vs. [#103MW] Vitor Miranda (10-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-10-26: W vs. [NA] Edinaldo Novaes (2-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:16 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Eddie Gordon 70, Antonio Carlos Jr. 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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It’s been a very busy month for UFC, and so far the fights have delivered.  Fight Night 67 had a mix of exciting and boring fights, 68 was outstanding from start to finish, and last weekend’s UFC 188 Pay-Per-View, despite a very weak line-up for a PPV card, had a few fun fights in addition to the amazing main event.  Looks like all this momentum may come to a screeching halt with UFC Fight Night 69: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne.

This is the third Fight Pass exclusive event this year, and the first ever Fight Pass event to feature a title fight.  This historical event will take place in Berlin, Germany and the live broadcast will start at noon (Eastern Time) in US.  Despite featuring a title fight, this is undoubtedly the worst card that the UFC has put on this year so far, even by Fight Pass standards.   In fact it may very well be the weakest UFC card ever, or at least in the Zuffa era. So this write up is going to be quite short, as there are only 2 fights on this card that I’m even moderately interested in.  Beyond the main event and the co-main, there are very few recognizable names or meaningful fights.  Of course all the fights could turn out to be barn-burners, but based on the matchups alone, there’s nothing I would pay to watch besides the two top billed bouts.

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