Two more changes…

1. Scrapping the “smart” option.  There are too many things to consider outside of what we can track with ratings and metrics (which are apparently not smart enough!)
2. The “safe” option will only include betting favorites.  Really, for the same reason as above.

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

• Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
• Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut).  More data makes WHR happy.
• Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
• Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

Now for the options…

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Another good week for the “safe” bets, another bad one for the others.

As touched upon in the last post, bets like Tim Means and Karolina K were not wise picks due to their advanced ages (from a professional fighting standpoint).  Through some analysis, I’ve discovered that the prime fighting age (by win%) is somewhere around 23.  Furthermore, Karolina (38) was 16 years older than her opponent.  Historically, a 22 year old has beaten a 38 year old, more than 75% of the time.  In the case of betting underdogs especially, I will be factoring this in at some degree.  Specifics TBD.

Therefore, I’m going to consider ages when deciding on picks going forward.  I am working on an automated method for this, but for now, it will be manual.

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

• Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
• Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut).  More data makes WHR happy.
• Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
• Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

Now for the options…

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Well, it was a bad week for the parlays… and the “smart” option has been looking pretty stupid.  I’m adding a new requirement for the bets — I must have odds from at least three books to consider a fight.  I noticed last week, that a fight only had odds from one book, and it had incredibly wild swings — probably due to a limited amount of betters taking interest in that fight and/or one rich guy spiking the punch bowl.  This will limit the parlays tremendously, so I will now start posting individual bets if there is only one viable option.  In addition, I’m also going to limit the “smart” parlays to 3 fighters (was 4).

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

• Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
• Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut).  More data makes WHR happy.
• Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.

Now for the options…

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