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Fight Matrix

This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on October 24, 2024 by Jason

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

  • Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
  • Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut).  More data makes WHR happy.
  • Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
  • Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

 

“The Underdog” bet/parlay

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway (10-26-2024)

Posted on October 21, 2024 by Jason

Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#2DD/#9P4P] Ilia Topuria (15-0-0, -259) vs. [#2/#5DD] Max Holloway (26-7-0, +196)
Ilia Topuria is the All-Time #12 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Max Holloway is the All-Time #3 ranked Featherweight and #8 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ilia Topuria (3-0-0)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#3FW] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:32 of round 2
2023-06-24: W vs. [#10FW] Josh Emmett (19-4-0) via UD (49-45, 50-44, 50-42)
2022-12-10: W vs. [#19FW] Bryce Mitchell (16-2-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:10 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (3-0-0)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#4LW] Justin Gaethje (25-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:59 of round 5
2023-08-26: W vs. [*] Chan Sung Jung (17-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:23 of round 3
2023-04-15: W vs. [#8FW] Arnold Allen (20-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ilia Topuria -259 68.10%
Elo K170 Max Holloway 2389.60 +186.18 74.49%
Elo Modified Max Holloway 2334.27 +172.79 73.00%
Glicko-1 Max Holloway 2442.70 +198.75 75.84%
WHR Ilia Topuria 2182.45 +12.38 51.78%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ilia Topuria 252, Max Holloway 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ilia Topuria leads 1-0
.

Middleweight (185)
[#4] Khamzat Chimaev (13-0-0, -221) vs. [#6] Robert Whittaker (26-7-0, +181)
Robert Whittaker is the All-Time #5 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Khamzat Chimaev (3-0-0)
2023-10-21: W vs. [#3WW] Kamaru Usman (20-4-0) via MD (29-27, 29-27, 28-28)
2022-09-10: W vs. [#17MW] Kevin Holland (26-12-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:13 of round 1
2022-04-09: W vs. [#10WW] Gilbert Burns (22-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Robert Whittaker (2-1-0)
2024-06-22: W vs. [#42MW] Ikram Aliskerov (15-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:49 of round 1
2024-02-17: W vs. [#9MW] Paulo Costa (14-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#1MW/#6DD/#3P4P] Dricus Du Plessis (22-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:23 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Khamzat Chimaev -221 65.92%
Elo K170 Robert Whittaker 2209.78 +0.38 50.06%
Elo Modified Robert Whittaker 2190.84 +12.69 51.83%
Glicko-1 Robert Whittaker 2273.79 +18.20 52.62%
WHR Khamzat Chimaev 2062.13 +3.35 50.48%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Khamzat Chimaev 371, Robert Whittaker 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#18] Lerone Murphy (14-0-1, -206) vs. [#20] Dan Ige (18-8-0, +171)

Last 3 Fights: Lerone Murphy (3-0-0)
2024-05-18: W vs. [#37FW] Edson Barboza (24-12-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-07-22: W vs. [#132FW] Joshua Culibao (12-4-1) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2023-03-18: W vs. [#71FW] Gabriel Santos (11-2-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Dan Ige (1-2-0)
2024-06-29: L vs. [#6FW] Diego Lopes (26-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-10: W vs. [#39FW] Andre Fili (24-11-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:43 of round 1
2023-09-23: L vs. [#19FW] Bryce Mitchell (16-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Lerone Murphy -206 64.59%
Elo K170 Lerone Murphy 1980.63 +186.55 74.53%
Elo Modified Lerone Murphy 1925.45 +152.96 70.69%
Glicko-1 Lerone Murphy 1953.50 +115.21 66.00%
WHR Lerone Murphy 1879.30 +110.66 65.41%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lerone Murphy 161, Dan Ige 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

Minimizing your risk when betting on MMA

Posted on October 18, 2024 by A. J. Riot

Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) is a sport that has exploded in recent decades, with prestigious competitions such as the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), spearheading the sport into the mainstream and attracting millions of fans around the world.

It’s no wonder then that in recent years MMA has become an extremely popular sport for savvy sports bettors looking to make a profit across betting markets within the sport. A quick look at the one of the larger sports betting websites Scs.ie shows that MMA is in the top 4 most bet on sports.

In this article, we’ll talk about things to watch out for when betting on MMA and how you can minimize your risk when looking for profitable value bets.

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Best Canadian UFC Fighters Ranked

Posted on October 17, 2024 by A. J. Riot

Canada has long been a powerhouse in the world of mixed martial arts, producing some of the UFC’s most formidable and celebrated fighters.

Whether you’re a die-hard fan or a casual observer, exploring the Luckyones slots that led these athletes to greatness is both fascinating and inspiring.

From legendary champions to rising stars, Canadian fighters have left an indelible mark on the octagon with their skill, determination, and unique fighting styles. But let’s no waste more time and see which are the legacy fighters that earned the respect of everyone in the Octagon.

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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on October 17, 2024 by Jason

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

  • Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
  • Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut).  More data makes WHR happy.
  • Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
  • Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

 

“The Underdog” bet/parlay

Keep Reading

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. Hernandez (10-19-2024)

Posted on October 15, 2024 by Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#17] Michel Pereira (32-11-0, +125) vs. [#25] Anthony Hernandez (12-2-0, -152)

Last 3 Fights: Michel Pereira (3-0-0)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#80MW] Ihor Potieria (25-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:54 of round 1
2024-03-09: W vs. [#41MW] Michal Oleksiejczuk (20-9-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:01 of round 1
2023-10-14: W vs. [#49MW] Andre Petroski (12-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Hernandez (3-0-0)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#53MW] Roman Kopylov (13-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:23 of round 2
2023-05-20: W vs. [#48MW] Edmen Shahbazyan (13-5-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:01 of round 3
2022-09-17: W vs. [#38MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-8-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 1:53 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Anthony Hernandez -152 57.57%
Elo K170 Michel Pereira 2007.89 +128.77 67.73%
Elo Modified Michel Pereira 1975.95 +71.18 60.10%
Glicko-1 Michel Pereira 2046.14 +87.61 62.35%
WHR Anthony Hernandez 1906.78 +51.07 57.30%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michel Pereira 168, Anthony Hernandez 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#15] Kyler Phillips (12-2-0, -347) vs. [#16] Rob Font (20-8-0, +268)
Rob Font is the All-Time #34 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kyler Phillips (3-0-0)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#18BW] Pedro Munhoz (20-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-05: W vs. [#44BW] Raoni Barcelos (18-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-02-12: W vs. [*] Marcelo Rojo (17-10-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 1:48 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Rob Font (1-2-0)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#4BW/#9P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (24-3-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-05: L vs. [#7BW] Cory Sandhagen (17-5-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-04-08: W vs. [#56BW] Adrian Yanez (17-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:57 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kyler Phillips -347 74.07%
Elo K170 Kyler Phillips 1860.64 +28.08 54.03%
Elo Modified Kyler Phillips 1882.25 +86.67 62.22%
Glicko-1 Kyler Phillips 1954.83 +75.99 60.76%
WHR Kyler Phillips 1866.25 +145.47 69.79%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kyler Phillips 224, Rob Font 322
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Kyler Phillips leads 1-0
.

Flyweight (125)
[#15] Charles Johnson (16-6-0, -223) vs. [#258] Su Mudaerji (16-6-0, +182)

Last 3 Fights: Charles Johnson (3-0-0)
2024-07-13: W vs. [#32FLY] Joshua Van (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:20 of round 3
2024-05-11: W vs. [#110BW] Jake Hadley (11-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-03: W vs. [#79FLY] Azat Maksum (15-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Su Mudaerji (1-2-0)
2023-12-09: L vs. [#22FLY] Tim Elliott (20-13-1) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:02 of round 1
2022-07-16: L vs. [*] Matt Schnell (16-10-0) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:24 of round 2
2021-01-20: W vs. [*] Zarrukh Adashev (4-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Charles Johnson -223 66.06%
Elo K170 Charles Johnson 1727.60 +338.88 87.55%
Elo Modified Charles Johnson 1731.40 +327.51 86.82%
Glicko-1 Charles Johnson 1798.25 +406.55 91.22%
WHR Charles Johnson 1634.06 +309.95 85.62%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Johnson 98, Su Mudaerji 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

Caged Steel 38: Main Event Announced

Posted on October 15, 2024 by Oleg

On December 7th, 2024, Caged Steel presents Caged Steel 38 in Doncaster UK, an exciting event featuring professional and amateur MMA fights, as well as caged boxing bouts. To purchase tickets to Caged Steel 38, enter coupon code fightmatrix at checkout.

The following bout will serve as the main event of Caged Steel 38:

Professional MMA – Bantamweight (61.2KG) Title Bout – 3×5 rounds

[#488 BW] (C) Adam Bramhald vs Altamiro de Jesus 

Altamiro de Jesus Pereira (10-2-3)

Gym: Tata Fight Team

Country: Brazil

Adam Bramhald (13-3-0)

Gym: AVT MMA

Country: England

Rank: #15 Bantamweight in UK

Here are the additional matchups announced so far:

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Why Tom Aspinall is the best heavyweight in the world right now

Posted on October 15, 2024 by A. J. Riot

 (Image via https://x.com/MMAHistoryToday)

Any diehard MMA fans will have noticed Tom Aspinall’s rise to stardom in the UFC. Initially joining the promotion from Cage Warriors, Aspinall’s talent was evident as soon as he stepped into the Octagon. In fact, many fans and experts think he is now the man to beat in the heavyweight division despite highly anticipated fights to come, with Jon Jones against Stipe Miocic hogging the limelight in the division right now.

Aspinall has already shown that he fears none of his rivals. A huge fight with the winner of Jones against Miocic could be on the cards, with Jones being priced as the favorite when looking at UFC odds, although Stipe Miocic represents great value at +410. Regardless of the outcome between the two veterans, Tom Aspinall has the tools to see off both fighters. As the British man has already demonstrated on numerous occasions, he is one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC right now.

While Jon Jones will continually play down Aspinall’s ability, many feel he’s refusing to entertain a potential match-up with Aspinall as he’s afraid of tarnishing his legacy and leaving the sport with a loss. Jones is arguably the best fighter ever, but that isn’t at heavyweight. For many fans, Aspinall is the best heavyweight in the world right now. Here’s why below.

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The Role of Casino Sponsorships in MMA: Fueling Fighters and Events

Posted on October 15, 2024 by A. J. Riot

source: pixabay.com

The relationship between Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) and casinos has evolved into a crucial partnership that is reshaping the sport. Over the past few years, MMA casino sponsorships have become two of the biggest sources of funds ranging from sponsorship of fighters to sponsorship of the events. These sponsorships provide essential resources for fighters at all levels, from rising stars to seasoned veterans, ensuring they can afford training, travel, and competition expenses. Moreover, MMA events casino sponsorships do not exclude non-financial aspects; casinos increasingly become the venues for organizing MMA events, combining two industries – sport and entertainment.MMA sponsorship deals and particularly the casino industries’ roles in the sport will be looked at in detail in this article. From UFC Polish fighters to the rise of Polish MMA, this piece will highlight how combining MMA and casinos is elevating fighters, boosting visibility, and contributing to the overall success of MMA.

Keep Reading

Fight Matrix Program – PFL Super Fights: Battle of the Giants (10-19-2024)

Posted on October 14, 2024 by Jason

Heavyweight (265)
[*] Francis Ngannou (17-3-0, -304) vs. [#10] Renan Ferreira (13-3-0, +227)
Francis Ngannou is the All-Time #7 ranked Heavyweight and #43 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Francis Ngannou (3-0-0)
2022-01-22: W vs. [#2HW+] Ciryl Gane (12-2-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2021-03-27: W vs. [*] Stipe Miocic (20-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:52 of round 2
2020-05-09: W vs. [#9HW+] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (15-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:20 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Renan Ferreira (3-0-0)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#14HW+] Ryan Bader (31-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:21 of round 1
2023-11-24: W vs. [#11HW+] Denis Goltsov (35-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:26 of round 2
2023-08-18: W vs. [#77HW+] Maurice Greene (11-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:46 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Francis Ngannou -304 71.10%
Elo K170 Francis Ngannou 2348.99 +414.44 91.58%
Elo Modified Francis Ngannou 2324.70 +383.08 90.07%
Glicko-1 Francis Ngannou 2461.72 +393.23 90.58%
WHR Francis Ngannou 2176.44 +203.35 76.32%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Francis Ngannou 1001, Renan Ferreira 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Featherweight (145)
[#1/#5P4P] Cristiane Justino (27-2-0, +101) vs. [#2/#7DD/#9P4P] Larissa Pacheco (23-4-0, -127)
Cristiane Justino is the All-Time #2 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cristiane Justino (3-0-0)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#5FW] Cat Zingano (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:01 of round 1
2022-04-23: W vs. [#4FW] Arlene Blencowe (16-10-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2021-11-12: W vs. [#15FW] Sinead Kavanagh (9-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Larissa Pacheco (3-0-0)
2023-11-24: W vs. [#6FW] Marina Mokhnatkina (11-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2023-08-18: W vs. [#10FW] Olena Kolesnyk (9-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:14 of round 1
2023-06-16: W vs. [#25FW] Amber Leibrock (7-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:45 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Larissa Pacheco -127 52.93%
Elo K170 Cristiane Justino 1963.55 +176.07 73.37%
Elo Modified Cristiane Justino 1967.15 +155.03 70.94%
Glicko-1 Cristiane Justino 2042.11 +203.17 76.31%
WHR Cristiane Justino 1987.08 +184.79 74.34%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cristiane Justino 378, Larissa Pacheco 330
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#7] Johnny Eblen (15-0-0, -597) vs. [#14] Fabian Edwards (13-3-0, +391)
Johnny Eblen is the All-Time #35 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Johnny Eblen (3-0-0)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#10LHW] Impa Kasanganay (18-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-09-23: W vs. [#14MW] Fabian Edwards (13-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:21 of round 3
2023-02-04: W vs. [#31MW] Anatoly Tokov (32-4-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Fabian Edwards (2-1-0)
2024-03-22: W vs. [#29MW] Aaron Jeffery (15-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-09-23: L vs. [#7MW] Johnny Eblen (15-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:21 of round 3
2023-05-12: W vs. [*] Gegard Mousasi (49-9-2) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Johnny Eblen -597 80.78%
Elo K170 Johnny Eblen 2138.82 +253.61 81.15%
Elo Modified Johnny Eblen 2065.88 +186.25 74.50%
Glicko-1 Johnny Eblen 2146.28 +197.48 75.71%
WHR Johnny Eblen 2005.68 +207.98 76.80%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Johnny Eblen 238, Fabian Edwards 211
Previous Match-up Record: Johnny Eblen leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

How Canadian MMA Fans Can Optimise Their Bets Through Fight Analytics

Posted on October 12, 2024 by A. J. Riot

Mixed Martial Arts is one of the most popular sports that attracts millions of spectators and fans in Canada. This sport is constantly evolving, and online betting is changing too. In the past, bettors often relied on intuition and luck; however, modern players can enhance their potential gains by analyzing the latest analytical data. How can this information improve your betting strategies, and what data should you consider to maximize your winnings? Let’s find out now.

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UFC FIGHT NIGHT PREDICTION: BRANDON ROYVAL VS TATSURO TAIRA

Posted on October 10, 2024 by Joshua Okeke

Saturday, October 12, 2024

04:00 PM ET

UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Streaming: TNT SPORTS, ESPN+

Welcome to another Saturday with activities in the Octagon. The Flyweight division presents the Last main card fight of thirteen scheduled for the day between [#2 FLW] Brandon Royval and [#7 FLW] Tatsuro Taira. This fight made the headliner with both fighters on their sixteen wins. All odds are available via fightodds.io.

Keep Reading

Joshua Okeke

Joshua Okeke’s journey in sports writing began with lively debates about football’s greatest players, eventually leading to a career with top publications in the US and India. His work has been featured on the front pages of newspapers like Nordonia Hills, praised for its clarity and engagement. Specializing in SEO, sports analytics, video editing, and digital content management, he crafts articles that resonate with fans, simplifying complex topics. Committed to helping aspiring writers and promoting remote opportunities in journalism, he shares practical advice on LinkedIn while pursuing a master’s in Mining Geophysics.

linktr.ee/joshwrites

UFC FIGHT NIGHT PREDICTION: ABDUL RAZAK ALHASSAN VS JOSH FREMD

Posted on October 10, 2024 by Joshua Okeke

Saturday, October 12, 2024

06:00 PM EST

UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Streaming: ESPN+

UFC Fight Night 244 will have a middleweight division bout scheduled as the main card event. This bout will be between [#76 MW] Abdul Razak Alhassan and [#109 MW] Josh Fremd at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, United States. Both fighters are seeking a form of redemption since recording just two wins in five bouts with the last being a year ago. All odds are available via fightodds.io.

Keep Reading

Joshua Okeke

Joshua Okeke’s journey in sports writing began with lively debates about football’s greatest players, eventually leading to a career with top publications in the US and India. His work has been featured on the front pages of newspapers like Nordonia Hills, praised for its clarity and engagement. Specializing in SEO, sports analytics, video editing, and digital content management, he crafts articles that resonate with fans, simplifying complex topics. Committed to helping aspiring writers and promoting remote opportunities in journalism, he shares practical advice on LinkedIn while pursuing a master’s in Mining Geophysics.

linktr.ee/joshwrites

Caged Steel 38: Matchup Announcements

Posted on October 10, 2024 by Oleg

On December 7th, 2024, Caged Steel presents Caged Steel 38 in Doncaster UK, an exciting event featuring professional and amateur MMA fights, as well as caged boxing bouts. To purchase tickets to Caged Steel 38, enter coupon code fightmatrix at checkout.  Here are the matchups announced so far:

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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on October 10, 2024 by Jason

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

  • Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
  • Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut).  More data makes WHR happy.
  • Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
  • Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

 

“The Underdog” bet/parlay

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