MMA Statistics – Page 31

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night 135: Gaethje vs. Vick (08-25-2018)

Posted on August 19, 2018 by Jason

Lightweight (155)
[#14] Justin Gaethje (18-2-0, +130) vs. [#16] James Vick (13-1-0, -157)
Justin Gaethje is the All-Time #40 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Justin Gaethje (1-2-0)
2018-04-14: L vs. [#1LW/#7DD/#10P4P] Dustin Poirier (24-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 4
2017-12-02: L vs. [#4LW] Eddie Alvarez (29-6-0) via KO (Knee) in 3:59 of round 3
2017-07-07: W vs. [#35FW] Michael Johnson (17-13-0) via TKO (Punches and Knees) in 4:48 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: James Vick (3-0-0)
2018-02-18: W vs. [#19LW] Francisco Trinaldo (22-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-11-04: W vs. [#74LW] Joseph Duffy (16-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 2
2017-05-13: W vs. [#138LW] Marco Polo Reyes (8-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:39 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): James Vick – Win%: 58.42
Elo Favorite (Standard): James Vick (2007.95) [+87.68] – Win%: 59.88
Elo Favorite (Modified): James Vick (1967.94) [+85.42] – Win%: 59.24
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Justin Gaethje 133, James Vick 188
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#27] Andre Fili (18-5-0, +121) vs. [#35] Michael Johnson (17-13-0, -147)

Last 3 Fights: Andre Fili (2-1-0)
2018-01-27: W vs. [#40FW] Dennis Bermudez (16-9-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2017-10-21: W vs. [#97FW] Artem Lobov (13-14-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-07-29: L vs. [#38FW] Calvin Kattar (18-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Michael Johnson (0-3-0)
2018-01-14: L vs. [#12FW] Darren Elkins (24-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:22 of round 2
2017-07-07: L vs. [#14LW] Justin Gaethje (18-2-0) via TKO (Punches and Knees) in 4:48 of round 2
2016-11-12: L vs. [#3LW] Khabib Nurmagomedov (26-0-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 2:31 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Michael Johnson – Win%: 56.80
Elo Favorite (Standard): Andre Fili (1756.34) [+1.39] – Win%: 50.16
Elo Favorite (Modified): Michael Johnson (1748.14) [+44.04] – Win%: 54.81
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Andre Fili 210, Michael Johnson 223
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#12] Angela Hill (8-4-0, -144) vs. [#21] Cortney Casey-Sanchez (7-6-0, +119)

Last 3 Fights: Angela Hill (2-1-0)
2018-02-24: W vs. [#29SW] Maryna Moroz (8-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-11-11: L vs. [#10SW] Nina Ansaroff (9-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-07-07: W vs. [#59SW] Ashley Yoder (5-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Cortney Casey-Sanchez (1-2-0)
2018-04-14: L vs. [#19SW] Michelle Waterson (15-6-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-12-02: L vs. [#13SW] Felice Herrig (14-7-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-05-13: W vs. [#24SW] Jessica Aguilar (20-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Angela Hill – Win%: 56.38
Elo Favorite (Standard): Angela Hill (1450.81) [+126.44] – Win%: 64.05
Elo Favorite (Modified): Cortney Casey-Sanchez (1452.81) [+13.17] – Win%: 51.44
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Angela Hill 182, Cortney Casey-Sanchez 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – Rizin 12 (08-12-2018)

Posted on August 11, 2018 by Jason

Lightweight (154)
[#55] Yusuke Yachi (20-6-0) vs. [#293FW] Luiz Gustavo Felix dos Santos (8-0-0)

Last 3 Fights: Yusuke Yachi (3-0-0)
2018-05-06: W vs. [#152LW] Diego Nunes (22-8-0) via SD ()
2017-12-31: W vs. [#128LW] Takanori Gomi (36-15-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:36 of round 1
2017-07-30: W vs. [#167LW] Satoru Kitaoka (41-17-9) via TKO (Punches) in 4:48 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Luiz Gustavo Felix dos Santos (3-0-0)
2017-11-25: W vs. [#1207FW] Diogo DAvila (6-3-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 1:40 of round 1
2017-08-05: W vs. [#732LW] Renato Amorim (7-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:55 of round 2
2016-11-26: W vs. [#666FW] Marcelo Bustos (10-6-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:47 of round 1

Elo Favorite (Standard): Yusuke Yachi (1803.82) [+336.44] – Win%: 82.30
Elo Favorite (Modified): Yusuke Yachi (1759.29) [+257.31] – Win%: 75.52
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yusuke Yachi 98, Luiz Gustavo Felix dos Santos 260
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (134)
[#66] Yuki Motoya (20-6-0) vs. [#194] Kazuma Sone (23-15-1)

Last 3 Fights: Yuki Motoya (2-1-0)
2018-06-30: W vs. [#140BW] Jae Hoon Moon (11-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:23 of round 2
2018-02-24: W vs. [#336BW] Jae Eun Byeon (2-1-0) via UD ()
2017-04-16: L vs. [#9BW] Kyoji Horiguchi (25-2-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Kazuma Sone (3-0-0)
2018-01-28: W vs. [#307BW] Mamoru Uoi (18-6-4) via MD ()
2017-10-15: W vs. [#384BW] Tomohiro Hagino (10-6-0) via UD ()
2017-05-28: W vs. [#1026FW] Keiichiro Keiichiro (6-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:21 of round 1

Elo Favorite (Standard): Yuki Motoya (1701.45) [+250.96] – Win%: 75.89
Elo Favorite (Modified): Yuki Motoya (1666.78) [+232.77] – Win%: 73.48
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yuki Motoya 43, Kazuma Sone 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Yuki Motoya leads 1-0
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Welterweight (170)
[#110] Ryuichiro Sumimura (14-5-0) vs. [#133] Kiichi Kunimoto (19-7-2)

Last 3 Fights: Ryuichiro Sumimura (3-0-0)
2018-04-28: W vs. [#258WW] Yoichiro Sato (19-9-2) via UD ()
2017-12-24: W vs. [#1664LW] Jaybo Fredrick (1-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:40 of round 1
2017-07-15: W vs. [#166LHW] Ken Hasegawa (16-3-1) via TKO (Punch) in 3:48 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Kiichi Kunimoto (1-2-0)
2017-12-29: W vs. [#167LW] Satoru Kitaoka (41-17-9) via UD ()
2017-06-10: L vs. [#122WW] Zak Ottow (16-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2015-02-14: L vs. [#10WW] Neil Magny (21-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:22 of round 3

Elo Favorite (Standard): Ryuichiro Sumimura (1676.47) [+33.66] – Win%: 53.84
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ryuichiro Sumimura (1682.86) [+52.10] – Win%: 55.68
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ryuichiro Sumimura 106, Kiichi Kunimoto 226
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Elo Rating Updates

Posted on July 30, 2018 by Jason

We detailed our intentions to add some alternate rating systems for comparison in a previous post.

We got several comments and questions about this, with two common questions being:

1 – I thought the system in use was a version of Elo?

2 – What’s the point of adding alternate rating systems?

Addressing #1, the current rating system does share a few things with Elo, most notably, the core formula that manages the movement. However, it has also borrowed elements from the Glicko rating system and has tons and tons of additional code in place to make it better equipped for MMA, which is still a very disorganized and unpredictable sport, in terms of not only the matches but the matchmaking as well. Systems like Elo and Glicko were made for chess, a sport (game?) where competitors can play dozens of matches in a month where none of them get kicked in the head by their opponent.

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FightMatrix Program – UFC Fight Night 131: Rivera/Moraes (06-01-2018)

Posted on May 28, 2018 by Jason

Bantamweight (135)
[#3] Marlon Moraes (20-5-1, 135.4lb, -114) vs. [#6] Jimmie Rivera (21-1-0, 134.6lb, -109)
Marlon Moraes is the All-Time #13 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Jimmie Rivera is the All-Time #22 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Marlon Moraes (2-1-0)
2017-12-09: W vs. [#8BW] Aljamain Sterling (15-3-0) via KO (Knee) in 1:07 of round 1
2017-11-11: W vs. [#9BW] John Dodson (20-9-0) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 27-30)
2017-06-03: L vs. [#7BW] Raphael Assuncao (26-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Jimmie Rivera (3-0-0)
2017-07-22: W vs. [#52BW] Thomas Almeida (21-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 29-28)
2016-09-10: W vs. [*] Urijah Faber (34-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2016-01-30: W vs. [#15BW] Iuri Alcantara (35-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marlon Moraes 174, Jimmie Rivera 314
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#42] Jake Ellenberger (31-13-0, 170.4lb, -171) vs. [#81] Ben Saunders (21-9-2, 169.4lb, +143)
Jake Ellenberger is the All-Time #23 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jake Ellenberger (1-2-0)
2017-04-22: L vs. [#36WW] Mike Perry (11-3-0) via KO (Elbow) in 1:05 of round 2
2016-12-03: L vs. [#9WW] Jorge Masvidal (32-13-0) via TKO in 4:05 of round 1
2016-07-30: W vs. [#23WW] Matt Brown (21-16-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 1:46 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ben Saunders (1-2-0)
2018-02-24: L vs. [#41WW] Alan Jouban (16-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:38 of round 2
2017-05-28: L vs. [#67WW] Peter Sobotta (17-6-1) via TKO (Punches and Knee) in 2:29 of round 2
2017-01-15: W vs. [#99WW] Court McGee (18-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Ellenberger 405, Ben Saunders 97
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#26] Nik Lentz (28-8-2, 155.4lb) vs. [*] Leonardo Santos (16-3-2)

Last 3 Fights: Nik Lentz (2-1-0)
2017-11-18: W vs. [#40LW] Will Brooks (18-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:05 of round 2
2017-02-11: L vs. [#33LW] Islam Makhachev (15-1-0) via UD (30-25, 30-27, 30-25)
2016-09-10: W vs. [#528LW] Michael McBride (8-3-0) via TKO in 4:17 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Leonardo Santos (3-0-0)
2016-10-08: W vs. [#84LW] Adriano Martins (28-10-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2015-12-12: W vs. [#4LW] Kevin Lee (17-3-0) via TKO in 3:26 of round 1
2015-03-21: W vs. [#58WW] Tony Martin (13-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:29 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nik Lentz 195, Leonardo Santos 601
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fighters Missing Weight: Win Percentage?

Posted on May 26, 2018 by Jason

On the topic of Darren Till coming in overweight again, I’ve seen more than a few instances of people citing statistics where fighters won at an astoundingly high rate in bouts where they missed weight.

Acquiring good data on MMA is hard enough, so we don’t have specifics on the intended divisional limit for all bouts. However, we do have a ton of bouts with weigh-in data for both fighters.

I first retrieved a count of all pro MMA bouts that ended in a win, where we have actual weigh-in data that shows that both fighters were between 100 and 212 pounds (26,383). The idea here is to exclude instances of bad data and Heavyweights.

Of these, I then looked at bouts where one fighter weighed between 1.75 and 6 pounds more than the other fighter. This range seems arbitrary, but I was trying to avoid “freak show” type of matches, while also excluding cases where one fighter may be 169.5 and another at 171 (for example). I got a surprisingly high count — 5,719.

Of these 5,719 bouts, the heavier fighter won 3,120 – 54.55%

When I change that window to a range of 1.25 pounds to 5 pounds, the win rate changes to 55.14%.

Fight Matrix Program: UFC 222 (03-03-2018)

Posted on February 27, 2018 by Jason

Women Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#2DD/#2P4P] Cristiane Justino (19-1-0, -1663) vs. [#14BW] Yana Kunitskaya (10-3-0, +927)
Cristiane Justino is the All-Time #2 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cristiane Justino (3-0-0)
2017-12-30: W vs. [#4FW] Holly Holm (11-4-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2017-07-29: W vs. [#5BW] Tonya Evinger (19-6-0) via TKO in 1:56 of round 3
2016-09-24: W vs. [#18BW] Lina Lansberg (7-3-0) via TKO in 2:29 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Yana Kunitskaya (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2017-08-31: W vs. [#28BW] Raquel Paaluhi (6-6-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2017-03-25: L vs. [#5BW] Tonya Evinger (19-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:32 of round 2
2016-11-18: NC vs. [#5BW] Tonya Evinger (19-6-0)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cristiane Justino 63, Yana Kunitskaya 184
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Cristiane Justino leads 1-0
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Featherweight (145)
[#3] Frankie Edgar (22-5-1, -174) vs. [#5] Brian Ortega (13-0-0, +145)
Frankie Edgar is the All-Time #10 ranked Featherweight and #11 ranked Absolute fighter.
Brian Ortega is the All-Time #34 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Frankie Edgar (2-1-0)
2017-05-13: W vs. [#35FW] Yair Rodriguez (10-2-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2016-11-12: W vs. [#4FW] Jeremy Stephens (28-14-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2016-07-09: L vs. [#2FW] Jose Aldo (26-4-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Brian Ortega (3-0-0)
2017-12-09: W vs. [#13FW] Cub Swanson (25-8-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:22 of round 2
2017-07-29: W vs. [#16FW] Renato Carneiro (11-1-1) via SUB in 2:59 of round 3
2016-06-04: W vs. [#25LW] Clay Guida (34-17-0) via TKO in 4:40 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Frankie Edgar 294, Brian Ortega 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#47] Andre Soukhamthath (12-5-0, -129) vs. [#79] Sean OMalley (9-0-0, +105)

Last 3 Fights: Andre Soukhamthath (1-2-0)
2017-12-09: W vs. [#73BW] Luke Sanders (11-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 2
2017-08-05: L vs. [#20BW] Alejandro Perez (19-6-1) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-03-04: L vs. [#129BW] Albert Morales (6-4-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Sean OMalley (3-0-0)
2017-12-01: W vs. [#132BW] Terrion Ware (17-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-07-18: W vs. [#348BW] Alfred Khashakyan (8-4-0) via TKO in 4:14 of round 1
2017-05-05: W vs. [#552BW] David Nuzzo (9-2-0) via KO (Wheel Kick) in 2:15 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Andre Soukhamthath 84, Sean OMalley 92
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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2017 Awards: Men’s Fighters of the Year

Posted on January 3, 2018 by Jason

As a recap, most “Fighter of the Year” awards on other sites are really “Breakout Fighter of the Year” awards in that fighters who win, were usually not top fighters in the beginning of the year, but became so by the end of the year.

A fighter like this can and has won our FotY awards, but our award is more about maintaining a high standing during the award year by performing well a sufficient number of times and against a sufficient quality of opponents. It is more comparable to a season MVP in major team sports, not a playoffs/surprise MVP.

Winners (Tie): Demetrious Johnson, Max Holloway

A very tight call, too tight to call… so we’re going with co-winners for the first time. DJ gets the nod with the #1 ranking for all 365 days, while Holloway twice beat an all-time great, albeit the same fighter.

3rd Place: Tyron Woodley

Like DJ, Woodley keeps churning out the quality performances and reigns over an even deeper division. But this year, he takes a backseat to DJ and Holloway.

2017 Awards: Women’s Fighters of the Year

Posted on January 2, 2018 by Jason

Winner: Cristiane Justino

With her win over Holm, Cyborg is right on Rousey’s heels for the title of best female MMA fighter ever. For now, she’ll have to settle with being the best of 2017.

Runner-Up: Rose Namajunas

Rose was looking like the winner, right until the last weekend of the year.

3rd Place: Livia Renata Souza

Winning more than once and being one of the best fighters outside of the UFC is good enough to earn Souza the third position.

2017 Awards: Rookies of the Year

Posted on January 1, 2018 by Jason

Men: Shamil Amirov

A 3-0-1 career record along with a draw against Rousimar Palhares, earns Amirov the award.

Honorable Mentions: Askhab Zulaev

Women: Liliya Shakirova

Soviet-based fighters tend to win these awards, due to their aggressive early matchmaking. Shakirova’s competition is suspect, but I could see her landing a Flyweight spot on a lackluster Asia/Europe UFC card.

Honorable Mention: Sunna Rannveig Davidsdottir

2017 Awards: Most Improved Fighter

Posted on December 31, 2017 by Jason

Most Improved Fighter of the Year: Volkan Oezdemir

With an ascent similar to that of Junior dos Santos, Oezdemir came out of nowhere to become a title contender in the UFC.

2017 Awards: Upsets of the Year

Posted on December 31, 2017 by Jason

Note: We have two ways that we derive biggest “upsets” based on points difference between winner and loser.

“Most Noteworthy” (X minus Y)
“Most Lopsided” (X divided by Y)

Most Noteworthy: Francis Ngannou KO(1) Alistair Overeem

More of a guard change than an upset. Nevertheless, Ngannou made up a massive point difference in taking Overeem out.

Most Lopsided: Volkan Oezdemir SD(3) Ovince St. Preux

Were the actual outcome a part of this, Emmett/Lamas would get the award. However, this is about proportional point differences and Oezdemir wasn’t even on the map before this fight.

2017 Awards: Most Noteworthy Match of the Year

Posted on December 31, 2017 by Jason

Most Noteworthy Match of the Year:

Max Holloway TKO(3) Jose Aldo II

The “most noteworthy” match of the year isn’t about box office or the popular scene, instead it is a pretty basic calculation — a sum of quality if you will. You can decide between the first or the rematch, they were basically the same fight.

2017 Awards: Comeback Fighter of the Year

Posted on December 31, 2017 by Jason

As a refresher, our “Comeback” award is about coming back from inactivity or major injury (that we know about) and in doing so, really impressing. You can see more details at the bottom of the post about specific qualifiers.

Comeback Fighter of the Year: Georges St. Pierre (2-time winner)

Talk about a no-brainer. GSP comes off a massive layoff and stops the Middleweight champion, capturing UFC gold in a second division. He’s the best ever.

Honorable Mentions: Al Iaquinta, Chan Sung Jung

To qualify, fighters must be in an active status at the end of the award year and did not have a fight in the previous calendar year or are coming off of a known major injury that caused an inactive period of 15+ months.

Ranking Points for the 2017 Rizin Bantamweight Grand Prix

Posted on October 11, 2017 by Richard Mann

Rizin Fighting Federation returns on Sunday with their ninth event. The card features, among other things, three more first round bouts for the 2017 Rizin Bantamweight Grand Prix as well as a “wild card qualification bout.” There were three bouts on the April show with #41FW Kyoji Horiguchi, #83BW Khalid Taha and #74BW Takafumi Otsuka advancing to the second round. The follow chart shows the ranking points for all tournament competitors over the last two years.

As you can see the two standouts from a rankings perspective are Horiguchi and #18BW Shintaro Ishiwatari. Horiguchi’s ranking dipped recently due mostly to inactivity, but he is still the odds on favorite to take the tournament. Ishiwatari is currently riding a four-fight winning streak with wins over Ostuka, #55BW Victor Henry, #258 FW Jonathan Brookins and #35BW Rafael Silva. The reigning bantamweight King of Pancrase also has the highest Rankings Momentum of all the competitors at +8.04.

2016 Awards: Men’s Fighters of the Year

Posted on January 5, 2017 by Jason

Winner: Stipe Miocic

Another fairly tight call, Miocic takes it with a 3-0 year, all being decisive victories with a title win and title defense.

Runner-Up: Michael Bisping

You couldn’t have went wrong putting Bisping at #1, who also went 3-0 with a title win and title defense. The difference being that two of his victories were extremely close against two legends of the sport at the very end of their respective careers.

3rd Place: Demetrious Johnson

DJ gets third place for the second straight year. I’m sure many would expect to see Conor here, but DJ is just one of a few fighters who had two decisive title wins in the year without a loss.