In Episode 7, Coach Nelson once again leaves the match-making to chance and his fighters. This time it works out better for the team, with some help from the judges, as Mike Hill scores a split decision win after going three rounds with Matt Secor. Another bizzare decision – this is the theme for the season. As usual, Dana White is exasperated and furious with the judges.
The current win tally is Team Carwin 3, Team Nelson 3.
Here’s who remains:
In Episode 6, Team Nelson scores another upset as Colton Smith takes a majority decision over Eddy Ellis. Once again, Dana White is not happy with the judges’ scores, and feels the fight should have gone to the third round.
The current win tally is Team Carwin 3, Team Nelson 2. Looks like more wacky matchmaking is ahead for Team Nelson in the next episode, meaning they will likely not keep control of match-ups for long.
Here’s who remains:
If you’ve been following recent updates, most notably those associated with the Upcoming Events page, you already know that we now display a meta-odds feature — average odds from about a dozen sports books.
I thought it would be interesting to compare results of UFC 152 and how we stacked up versus the gamblers. We ended up doing pretty good , though this is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary rating that is primarily focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation. Either way, both systems have their place in determining who to expect to win the fight.
Back again, to see if we could repeat the success with UFC 153… and here we go.
Note: Moraes/Forte and Marcello/Madadi are excluded as at least one fighter in each was unranked/inactive.
Ratings vs. Gamblers Scoreboard
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Ratings Favorite | “Who won” |
| Silva vs. Bonnar | Silva (-1005 / Epic) | Silva (9.4x^ / Ungodly) | Tie |
| Nogueira vs. Herman | Nogueira (-241 / Moderate) | Nogueira (3.4x / Massive) | Ratings |
| Teixeiravs. Maldonado | Teixeira (-492 / Large) | Teixeira (3.1x / Very Large) | Tie |
| Fitch vs. Silva | Silva (-185 / Small) | Fitch (1.61x / Moderate) | Ratings |
| Davis vs. Prado | Davis (-383 / Large) | Davis (10.46x / Ungodly) | Ratings |
| Maia vs. Story | Maia (-124 / Pick’Em) | Maia (2.09x / Large) | Ratings |
| Bezerra vs. Sicilia | Bezerra (-234 / Moderate) | Bezerra (1.08x / Pick’Em) | Gamblers |
| Tibau vs. Trinaldo | Tibau (-135 / Very Small) | Tibau (1.83x / Moderate)^ | Tie |
| Brandao vs. Gambino | Brandao (-247 / Moderate) | Brandao (1.34x / Very Small) | Gamblers |
| Camozzi vs. Cane | Cane (-150 / Very Small) | Camozzi (1.17x^ / Pick’Em) | Ratings |
^ – Pre-fight divisional difference was not factored into rating difference.
In Episode 5, Team Carwin widens the lead as Igor Araujo takes a controversial majority decision over Nick Herron-Webb, in a close fight which Dana White claimed should have gone to the third round.
The current win tally is Team Carwin 3, Team Nelson 1.
Here’s who remains:
Just over a year ago, we rolled out a community adjustment and posted a blog entry about it.
Although the adjustment was helping, the problem is actually getting worse at a faster rate than before. It’s also now spreading into the female ranks.
As such, we will be rolling an adjustment out every six months and upon the next update, will roll out a retroactive adjustment to the Japanese community effective 7/1/2012.
In Episode 4, Coach Nelson employed a bizzare approach to matchmaking, having his fighters draw straws to determine who gets to fight this week. Julian Lane drew the short straw and chose Bristol Marunde as his opponent. The results were disastrous, with tentative Lane losing an unanimous decision in an uneventful two-rounder. Team Carwin regains the lead as well the control of matchmaking.
The current win tally is Team Carwin 2, Team Nelson 1.
Here’s who remains:
In Episode 3, Team Nelson tied the score with a huge upset win, as Nelson’s second-to-last pick Joey ‘Boom Boom’ Rivera outworked Sam Alvey, Carwin’s top pick and the overall top rank of the season. Rivera earned a majority decision after two rounds, with the scores of 20-18, 20-18, 19-19.
The current win tally is Team Carwin 1, Team Nelson 1.
All rankings are approximate as-of Episode 2 airing.
[#71 MW] Sam Alvey [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [#149 WW] Leo Kuntz by TKO
Episode 3: lost to [#441 WW] Joey Rivera by majority decision
[#72 MW] Bristol Marunde [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [#174 MW] George Lockhart by submission
[#129 WW] Eddy Ellis [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] David Michaud by submission
[#142 WW] Igor Araujo [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [#300 MW] Cortez Coleman by submission
[#147 WW] Nick Herron-Webb [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [#133 MW] Tim Ruberg by submission
[#215 WW] James Chaney [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Jerel Clark by submission
[#164 LW] Mike Ricci [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [#83 MW] Jason South by TKO
[#292 WW] Cameron Diffley [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Zane Kamaka by submission
Episode 2: lost to [#327 MW] Neil Magny by unanimous decision
[#327 MW] Neil Magny [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Frank Camacho by unanimous decision
Episode 2: defeated [#292 WW] Cameron Diffley by unanimous decision
[#441 WW] Joey Rivera [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [#386 LW] Saad Awad by majority decision
Episode 3: defeated [#71 MW] Sam Alvey by majority decision
[#489 WW] Mike Hill [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Lev Magen by TKO
[#496 WW] John Manley [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [#186 WW] Ricky Legere Jr by unanimous decision
[#460 LW] Julian Lane [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Diego Bautista by unanimous decision
[NR] Dom Waters [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [#132 WW] Kevin Nowaczyk by TKO
[NR] Colton Smith [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [#325 MW] Jesse Barrett by unanimous decision
[NR] Matt Secor [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [#304 WW] Max Griffin by submission
I will be honest: I was not planning on doing the usual episode recaps for Season 16 of The Ultimate Fighter. Even after some kind reminders from our readers, I was at best lukewarm to the idea. The reason for this is that I believe the Ultimate Fighter series has ran its course; the format has become quite stale, and after fifteen seasons it went from ‘must watch TV’ for me to being just another show buried on the DVR that I might get to later in the week, if time allows. And if the sagging ratings are any indication, I am not the only UFC viewer who feels this way. After attempting a switch to the ‘TUF Live’ format in Season 15, UFC and FX didn’t find the live production to be cost effective and went back to the same tired format this season. As a result, the viewership is at its lowest point in the existence of the series, failing to break 1 million viewers in the first two episodes. Let’s face it, it’s very difficult for any show to keep its audience for that many seasons. Very few television series remain on air for this long, and I guess ‘TUF’ just doesn’t have the timeless appeal of shows like The Simpsons.
Nevertheless, I decided to take a look at the rankings of the Season 16 cast, and the results surprised me in two ways: first, the overall rankings of fighters who made it into the house were higher than I expected based on other recent seasons, and also there was a large discrepancy in the average ranking of the fighters picked for the two teams. And so, I am now actually curious to see how this tournament will break down. So here we are, a little late with our recap of Epsidose 1 & 2 of The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs Team Nelson – or ‘TUF 16’, for short. Though some of the contestants are ranked in different weight divisions, they are all competing as welterweights on the show.
Keep reading to see how they stack up, with Team Carwin up 1-0 after the first team-vs-team matchup. Better late than never!
If you’ve been following recent updates, most notably those associated with the Upcoming Events page, you already know that we now display a meta-odds feature — average odds from about a dozen sports books.
I thought it would be interesting to compare results of UFC 152 and how we stacked up versus the gamblers. This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary rating that is primarily focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation. Either way, both systems have their place in determining who to expect to win the fight.
Before going in to that, a side note. I performed a simple study for recent notable fights and determined that due to the unpredictability of MMA, a favorite should rarely, if ever, exceed -1000 (a bet of $1,000 would profit you $100). Something to think about before you place that next bet on a fight like Silva/Bonnar.
Another side note: A part of the advantage of the rating system (like gambling, too) is that a rating difference can not only help determine an expected winner, but the margin of victory as well. With this in mind, I’m going to be very “black and white” in determining who got it more correct. Feel free to comment on this post and give your thoughts.
Ratings vs. Gamblers Scoreboard
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | “Who won” |
| Jones vs. Belfort | Jones (-856 / Massive) | Jones (3.59x^ / Massive) | Tie |
| Johnson vs. Benavidez | Benavidez (-261 / Moderate) | Benavidez (1.2x / Very Small) | Ratings |
| Bisping vs. Stann | Bisping (-198 / Small) | Stann (1.07x / Pick’Em) | Gamblers |
| Hamill vs. Hollett | Hamill (-357 / Large) | Hamill (1.59x / Moderate) | Tie |
| Swanson vs. Oliveira | Oliveira (-247 / Moderate) | Swanson (1.09x / Pick ‘Em) | Ratings |
| Magalhaes vs. Pokrajac | Pokrajac (-158 / Small) | Pokrajac (1.22x / Small) | Tie |
| Grant vs. Dunham | Dunham (-137 / Pick’Em) | Grant (1.26x / Small) | Ratings |
| Pierson vs. Benoist | Benoist (-217 / Small) | Pierson (1.3x / Small) | Ratings |
| Brimage vs. Hettes | Hettes (-446 / Large) | Hettes (1.07x / Pick ‘Em) | Ratings |
| Gagnon vs. Watson | Watson (-188 / Small) | Gagnon (1.22x / Small) | Ratings |
| Noke vs. Brenneman | Brenneman (-224 / Moderate) | Brenneman (1.95x^ / Large) | Gamblers |
^ – Division move was not factored into rating difference.
